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Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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January 12th, 2016 at 1:29:29 AM permalink
You need to factor in the fact that the nomination is not determined by popular vote. There are caucuses and super delegates and all kinds of shenanigans. The party can even change the rules during the convention if need be. There's already talk of squeezing Paul Ryan through the backdoor.

If Cruz is the popular choice, I think they might swallow it. If it's Trump, they can make a pretty compelling case that he is not really a Republican and that the Republican party should therefore not chose him as the nom. Same thing with Bernie. I believe a great number of super delegates are already promised to Hillary.

This somewhat corresponds to the reality that both parties are largely businesses that trade in political influence and favors. Having Trump or Bern as a nom is like putting a vegetarian chef in charge of your steakhouse.

I'm somewhat alone in this, but I think Trump would have a better chance of beating Hillary than getting the nomination in the first place. I did see a poll that said more Dems would switch over for Trump than Reps for Hill. Bernie would also have a fine chance against Rubio. Each has a huge rhetorical advantage in being able to call out the prospective foe as a shill and each can say, with some credibility, that they will represent the interests of voters on many key issues. You'd have to be lobotomized to believe that of either Hillary or Rubio at this point.

I think Hillary would beat Rubio, and probably Cruz, who has some credibility but is ultimately a bit too goofy. I've always thought that if Christie could get his s together he would be a good candidate, but that seems unlikely.
RonC
RonC
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January 12th, 2016 at 4:22:36 AM permalink
There may be talk about sneaking someone in the backdoor, but I just don't think the Republican Party will be tone-deaf enough to realize that they have to go with the candidate who wins the primary process. If it is close, it may be different...but if Trump is in the lead by a large margin, he has to be the candidate. That may be a very bitter pill for the establishment folks (and I would assume the same with Cruz if he is in that position) to swallow, but ignoring the primary voters--the most committed ones--would make for a whole lot of disenfranchised Republicans.

They can push for an establishment VP candidate...but I don't think they can change the nominee if one is clearly the "winner"...

At that point, they have to put all their efforts behind the candidate and practice what they preach (something every true politician seems to have trouble with!)--ALL of our candidates are better suited to be President than yours.

Hillary Clinton may well become President. The Republicans need to do everything possible (legally, of course) to stop that from happening whether they like the nominee or not. That is the only position that they can take and maintain credibility.

Even with the winning candidate running against Hillary, it will be a tough fight.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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January 12th, 2016 at 6:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

After South Carolina is Nevada. I haven't seen recent polls, but the last I saw Rubio wasn't running too well here. He campaigns here, calling Nevada his "childhood home". He lived in Henderson from age 8 until 11. Strange thing about that, raised Roman Catholic and still a Roman Catholic today, during their 3 years living here, Rubio's family attended the Church of Latter Day Saints (Mormon). Just a strange little side thing that hasn't been explained. But I haven't got the impression that the "childhood home" status is getting him much support here.



I haven't seen a Nevada poll either, but I think Trump will do well here. Remember that Ron Paul won the 2008 primary in Nevada. The Republicans here are the small government libertarian type. Cruz will not do well here. I could see Rubio coming in a strong second, doing well with the Mormon and Latino voters.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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January 12th, 2016 at 8:22:37 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

After South Carolina is Nevada.

Do you know where and what time your caucus is?
kewlj
kewlj
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January 12th, 2016 at 8:36:50 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

There are caucuses and super delegates and all kinds of shenanigans. The party can even change the rules during the convention if need be. There's already talk of squeezing Paul Ryan through the backdoor.

If Cruz is the popular choice, I think they might swallow it. If it's Trump, they can make a pretty compelling case that he is not really a Republican and that the Republican party should therefore not chose him as the nom.



I am familiar with super delegates. which is basically attempts by both parties to take the vote away from the voters. The Democrats abuse the super delegate system more than the republicans with about 20% of the total delegates needed being super delegates which are party officials who are not representative of the public's vote. If that 20% block backs for one candidate, the establishment candidate, that candidate has nearly 40% of the delegates needed to win the nomination, before a single vote has been cast by the public. That is currently the situation with Hillary. She has a huge lead before a single vote has been cast and Bernie would have to win 65% of the delegates distributed by voter turnout in order to win.

On the republican side it is not quite so tilted. I forget the numbers but I think the delegates non reflective of the actual vote are only about 10% of the total delegates, which means if they voted as a block and went to an establishment candidate like Rubio, that would only give him 20% of what is needed to win. He is still going to have to win a bunch of delegates related to the vote in order to win. I guess the best chance would be a 3 way race with Trump, Cruz and an establishment candidate like Rubio going deep into the process dividing up regular delegates, then the super delegates and the republicans have a different term for some of the "at large delegates" could be the difference.

I do disagree with your idea that Cruz would be more acceptable to the republican establishment than Trump. I think you are underestimating how much Cruz is disliked among the republican establishment. This past weekend on some of the Sunday shows I heard a couple establishment type big wigs saying just the opposite.....that between Trump and Cruz, they fear Cruz the most. They feel he gets crushed and they not only lose the presidency but the senate and a longer shot would be the house as well. One guy suggested the if it came down to Trump and Cruz, with no establishment candidate in the mix, you might see establishment support (and money, including superpac money) supporting Trump, which is almost unthinkable.
runspotwalk
runspotwalk
Joined: Jan 9, 2016
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January 12th, 2016 at 10:16:07 AM permalink
Time for the candidates to start talking about changing the tax code and IRS regulations. And as usual, very little will change.
Why ? Because the tax code is how politicians reward friends and punish their enemies.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 12th, 2016 at 10:42:21 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

You need to factor in the fact that the nomination is not determined by popular vote. There are caucuses and super delegates and all kinds of shenanigans. The party can even change the rules during the convention if need be. There's already talk of squeezing Paul Ryan through the backdoor.


There aren't that many superdelegates on the Republican side - the vast majority of states have 3 or fewer. A number of states have a rule where its three committee-based delegates (one man and one woman who are RNC members, and whoever the head of the state's Republican Party organization is) have to vote for whomever wins the state.

Of course, there is still room for shenanigans; while the Democrats use the same system for all of its primaries (delegates are divided among the candidates that get at least 15% of vote; 3/4 of the delegates in a state are congressional district-based, and the other 1/4 are statewide-based), Republicans use a number of methods (e.g. the statewide winner gets all of the delegates; the winner in each congressional district gets 3 delegates, and the statewide winner gets the rest; the winner in a district gets 2 while second place gets 1, and the rest are divided proportionally based on the statewide vote among the candidates that get a certain percentage or higher).
kewlj
kewlj
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January 12th, 2016 at 11:02:57 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

There aren't that many superdelegates on the Republican side - the vast majority of states have 3 or fewer. A number of states have a rule where its three committee-based delegates (one man and one woman who are RNC members, and whoever the head of the state's Republican Party organization is) have to vote for whomever wins the state.

Of course, there is still room for shenanigans; while the Democrats use the same system for all of its primaries (delegates are divided among the candidates that get at least 15% of vote; 3/4 of the delegates in a state are congressional district-based, and the other 1/4 are statewide-based), Republicans use a number of methods (e.g. the statewide winner gets all of the delegates; the winner in each congressional district gets 3 delegates, and the statewide winner gets the rest; the winner in a district gets 2 while second place gets 1, and the rest are divided proportionally based on the statewide vote among the candidates that get a certain percentage or higher).



While the republicans only officially have 153 super delegates as you described, they have another 72 'at large' type delegates who are selected by party officials that are not tied in any way to the way the voters vote. These two groups (and they call the 72 something other than super delegates) make up about 9% of the total delegates, which again is far fewer than the democratic side, but still enough that in a close election, the party could take the vote out of hands of the people.

You can bet that out of these 225 'party delegates' very few will be going to Trump or Cruz, unless of course the party decides it needs to back one of these two candidates in order to defeat the other less desirable of the two.

So that is where an establishment candidate (presumably Rubio) has an advantage initially with these 225 'at large' party type delegates, but at some point he has to start winning somewhere. After march 15 all primaries are winner takes all, so racking up seconds and thirds does you no good. I just don't see where Rubio is poised to win anywhere at the moment and that includes his home state (at least at the moment). I just don't quite see his "path". But things can change.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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January 12th, 2016 at 1:12:43 PM permalink
Kim Davis, the 4-times married anti-gay marriage hag from Kentucky, will attend the State of the Union tonight.

Her lawyers would not say which Republican congressperson invited her.

Seems like good PR for the Republican Party. /sarcasm
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
HowMany
HowMany
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January 12th, 2016 at 1:21:44 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Kim Davis, the 4-times married anti-gay marriage hag from Kentucky, will attend the State of the Union tonight.



Meanwhile, Michelle Obama will also attend the State of the Union. She'll keep herself occupied by mauling a box of DUNKAROOS during the speech.

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