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RonC
RonC
Joined: Jan 18, 2010
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September 15th, 2015 at 7:48:02 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Here's a new poll out today:

Polls Show Carson Running Nearly Even To Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/15/today-in-politics-in-new-poll-carson-pulls-up-alongside-an-idling-trump/

This could be what happened in 2012 all over again: each candidate gets their moment at the top of polls while voters try and figure out who they like best. Looks like it's about to be Carson's turn if the momentum keeps up...



I think it has been talked about before here--where does the support go when people like Perry drop out or when folks like Bush drop lower in the polls. It looks like most of it has been going to Carson but some to Trump also.

People haven't "examined" Trump yet; isn't he supposed to issue one of his "plans" for something soon after this debate? That was a good tactic to keep from alienating people who don't like his plan but like him a little bit before the debate...it helped keep him at the top.

He may win, it is at least possible, but the examination of his positions over time will have him do some up and down movement in the polls. Things that sound good as sound bites may not flesh out well into parts of the actual "plan" to get things done. I can say I will raise taxes on hedge fund managers and make a lot of friends and less enemies, but how do I do it in practical terms without impacting people I don't want to tax more?

Details. Then we'll find out how people go once they see details.
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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September 15th, 2015 at 9:01:35 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

I think it has been talked about before here--where does the support go when people like Perry drop out or when folks like Bush drop lower in the polls. It looks like most of it has been going to Carson but some to Trump also.

People haven't "examined" Trump yet; isn't he supposed to issue one of his "plans" for something soon after this debate? That was a good tactic to keep from alienating people who don't like his plan but like him a little bit before the debate...it helped keep him at the top.

He may win, it is at least possible, but the examination of his positions over time will have him do some up and down movement in the polls. Things that sound good as sound bites may not flesh out well into parts of the actual "plan" to get things done. I can say I will raise taxes on hedge fund managers and make a lot of friends and less enemies, but how do I do it in practical terms without impacting people I don't want to tax more?

Details. Then we'll find out how people go once they see details.



I really doubt we will see plans or details.
He has the clear lead without a plan or details.
If he continues to lead going into the primaries, which he will, there is no reason for him to release plans or details.
His plans are to just wing it if he becomes President
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 15th, 2015 at 10:19:08 AM permalink
Some people are comparing Trump and Carson as "having their moment in the sun", much as the pizzaman and even Michelle Bachman did in 2011. I see one big difference. Mitt Romney, the presumed and eventual nominee at the time was never running near the back of the pack. Romney was always second or third, while the electorate "kicked' The tires of other candidates early on.

This cycle the two biggest front runners, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are running well back in the pack. Walker has sunk to like 2%, That is Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal type numbers and he appears all but done, having been thoroughly rejected. I wouldn't say Bush is all but done, but to date he has also been thoroughly rejected (so far) much more so that Romney ever was.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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September 15th, 2015 at 10:37:54 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Some people are comparing Trump and Carson as "having their moment in the sun", much as the pizzaman and even Michelle Bachman did in 2011. I see one big difference. Mitt Romney, the presumed and eventual nominee at the time was never running near the back of the pack. Romney was always second or third, while the electorate "kicked' The tires of other candidates early on.

This cycle the two biggest front runners, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are running well back in the pack. Walker has sunk to like 2%, That is Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal type numbers and he appears all but done, having been thoroughly rejected. I wouldn't say Bush is all but done, but to date he has also been thoroughly rejected (so far) much more so that Romney ever was.



I never thought Scott Walker had a chance.... Not sure why anyone did. He has no mainstream appeal and could never win a general.... And that face. Eek!

I was on record many times saying Jeb was the best bet in the general. But that was before he turned out to be such a low energy candidate (if I can borrow the phrase from Mr. Trump).

I'm still trying to figure out who their best bet is now. Kasich? If he can gain traction. Some people say Rubio. But his awful far-right abortion answer during the first debate doesn't scream "general election material!" to me...
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
kewlj
kewlj
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September 15th, 2015 at 10:51:57 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

I never thought Scott Walker had a chance.... Not sure why anyone did. He has no mainstream appeal and could never win a general.... And that face. Eek!

I was on record many times saying Jeb was the best bet in the general. But that was before he turned out to be such a low energy candidate (if I can borrow the phrase from Mr. Trump).

I'm still trying to figure out who their best bet is now. Kasich? If he can gain traction. Some people say Rubio. But his awful far-right abortion answer during the first debate doesn't scream "general election material!" to me...



Walker was declared one of the front runners because he was the choice of the Koch brothers, although publically they say they haven't backed a candidate yet.

Jeb is very laid back and it does come across as low energy. He is also dry and pretty humorless. Much different than his brother. Just the way he holds his body looks very stiff. I have said before that I wonder if he has back issues and is wearing a back brace. Not that I would hold that against him, but that's what he looks like to me.

I don't think Kasich is the guy. I though maybe during and just after the last debate, as he gave good answers that made him sound reasonable. The gay marriage answer was a great answer. He said he was not in favor of gay marriage, but that he has attended the gay marriages of friends. I think that kind of seems reasonable to many people. But when you look a little deeper as I did just after the last debate, you find more of a career politician that doesn't seem so special.

I always thought Rubio had a real strong chance. He is young, energetic, good looking, intelligent and well spoken. I also thought he had an outstanding first debate. But that hasn't translated into any momentum. I suppose the repubs see him as too young and inexperienced, probably more of a VP candidate (unless Jeb win, which Rubio can't be VP being from the same state).
kewlj
kewlj
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September 15th, 2015 at 11:37:38 AM permalink
I get a kick out of the polls. I mean sometimes there are polls that are outliers and if you are at all objective, you can identify them as that. But other times there are polls that are legit that reach very different conclusions. I guess we would need to know exactly how they are identifying ' likely republican voters' to REALLY figure them out.

In the last 2 days there were two polls released by fairly creditable sources that had two VERY different results.

On Monday, the ABC/Wash post poll had Trump at 33%, and Carson at 20%, a 13 point lead.

Today, CBS/New York Times poll has Trump at 27% and Carson at 23%, a 4 point lead.

Now it's funny, the headlines on several different news stations, liberal leaning, MSNBC as well as Fox news are something to the effect that Carson has pulled almost even with Trump. CNN headline is "Carson surging!" lol

The way I would apply this data is averaging I get Trump at 30% and Carson at 21.5%. But I guess that is not as good a headline. lol
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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September 15th, 2015 at 12:41:23 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

The way I would apply this data is averaging I get Trump at 30% and Carson at 21.5%. But I guess that is not as good a headline. lol



Because of Trumps style I could see the polls fluctuating just a day apart by several points. It's whatever he says in between two polls.

I think all the lower tier candidates hope for another Perry-type withdrawl. Perry ran out of money so soon, I wonder if he was running on wishful thinking?
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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September 15th, 2015 at 1:11:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

She's already lining up a larger Ryder truck for when they leave the WH for good. She'll take everything this time.

Even better, let's see just who is supposed to be Clinton's inspirational guru. Why,it's none other than the redoubtable Kim Kardashian:

"So I think all of us in our own ways can be inspirational or aspirational for people.. and I certainly think many people see her as someone who gets up every day and tries to figure out how to make that day successful," said Clinton." washington examiner

What a fantastic and amazing plateau to aspire to!!!! Sure beats the pants off Palin and Fiorina.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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September 15th, 2015 at 1:35:27 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Even better, let's see just who is supposed to be Clinton's inspirational guru. Why,it's none other than the redoubtable Kim Kardashian:

"So I think all of us in our own ways can be inspirational or aspirational for people.. and I certainly think many people see her as someone who gets up every day and tries to figure out how to make that day successful," said Clinton." washington examiner

What a fantastic and amazing plateau to aspire to!!!! Sure beats the pants off Palin and Fiorina.



The full quote:

"You know I just met her for the first time, she came to one of my fundraisers in Los Angeles and I really enjoyed meeting her, I really found her to be warm and very personable, she had a nice way of introducing her husband, as if I didn't know who he was, right, and I enjoy seeing her with her daughter. So I think all of us in our own ways can be inspirational or aspirational for people.. and I certainly think many people see her as someone who gets up every day and tries to figure out how to make that day successful," said Clinton.

What is wrong with that...? What is the story here?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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September 15th, 2015 at 10:07:39 PM permalink
If you guys on the right need something else to crow about, I suspect the Democratic debates are going to be watched about as much as the Sun the day after an eclipse.

Could be the worst ratings in years.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?

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