2016 Election

With the next republican debate coming up, here is my take.
Many candidates will go hard after Trump.
He's the clear leader, its expected and too many candidates with a campaign going nowhere.
I'm sure we will see some fire works as candidates take the kid gloves off regarding Trump
No matter what happens in the debate, the establishment candidates(career politicians) will not improve their numbers.
Walker, Paul, Christie, Huck, Cruz and everybody at the kiddie table are done.
Its clear the republican base wants somebody besides a career politician therefore Trump 1st and Carson 2nd.
I think there is one candidate that may make a jump and that's Carly.
I think the base wants to see more of her and see her with the big boys.
Just being on the big stage makes her look more Presidential.
I predict her maybe 3rd after the debate if she performs well.
The debate will have no effect on Trumps numbers, he will continue to dominate.
Couple reasons I think Trump has the nomination locked down.
His crowds, they are big and they are excited and psyched
Trumps base knows Trump. This is their man.
He is up against a real weak field

Quote: terapined

I think there is one candidate that may make a jump and that's Carly.

Yeah, in fact I think this next debate is crucial for her, since it is giving her a big opportunity to show what she can do on center stage. Might even be more important for her than anyone else.

"Success is when preparation meets opportunity." who said that?

I'll go look it up.

I don't mean to say, she's finished if she doesn't do really well, just that people won't give her as close a look again if she doesn't.

Quote: rxwine

Yeah, in fact I think this next debate is crucial for her,

It won't matter, she's an unknown. She
doesn't have a chance. On a Fox show
today they were doing a man on the
street and they didn't find a single
person who didn't know who The Donald
was. Half of them just had to say 'You're
fired!' And sometimes when they did,
they would show Trump saying it.

The Arnold is taking Trump's place
on the show. The most boring actor
I could imagine, he has the personality
of a clam. Goodbye Apprentice.

Quote: EvenBob

It won't matter, she's an unknown. She
doesn't have a chance.

Just for you EB.

Already seen most of it 10 times on Fox
and CNN. Nobody is paying attention.
Trump sold out a 20,000 seat arena
tonight with people begging to
get in. They were delirious to see
him, literally.

Carson is catching up to Trump.

I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the lead over Trump in the next couple weeks.

After all the constant bragging about his poll numbers, Trump in 2nd place would be an entertaining sight to see!

Quote: ams288

Carson is catching up to Trump.

I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the lead over Trump in the next couple weeks.

After all the constant bragging about his poll numbers, Trump in 2nd place would be an entertaining sight to see!

The Washington Post Poll shows both gaining points and traditional Republicans losing points. The results of this poll show that perhaps Carson is gaining points to get closer to Trump but those points are coming from the rest of the field; not Trump. Many of the candidates are falling in the polls at this point.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-carson-top-gop-race-clinton-leads-dems-but-support-drops/2015/09/13/7961a820-58c2-11e5-8bb1-b488d231bba2_story.html

Quote: RonC

The Washington Post Poll shows both gaining points and traditional Republicans losing points. The results of this poll show that perhaps Carson is gaining points to get closer to Trump but those points are coming from the rest of the field; not Trump. Many of the candidates are falling in the polls at this point.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-carson-top-gop-race-clinton-leads-dems-but-support-drops/2015/09/13/7961a820-58c2-11e5-8bb1-b488d231bba2_story.html

I saw one poll where Carson was only 4-5% below Trump (maybe it was an Iowa poll and not a general matchup? Can't remember).

Anyway I'd just be interested in seeing how Trump would handle losing the top spot. Would he just stop constantly highlighting his position in the polls? Or would he just ignore it and still claim to be #1? He always did that with The Apprentice, he kept claiming it was the #1 show on TV long after its ratings had massively declined...

Quote: ams288

I saw one poll where Carson was only 4-5% below Trump (maybe it was an Iowa poll and not a general matchup? Can't remember).

Anyway I'd just be interested in seeing how Trump would handle losing the top spot. Would he just stop constantly highlighting his position in the polls? Or would he just ignore it and still claim to be #1? He always did that with The Apprentice, he kept claiming it was the #1 show on TV long after its ratings had massively declined...

My prediction? I don't know whether he would say outright that he was #1 if he wasn't (though he has before) but I am pretty sure he'd not spend very much time acknowledging that someone was ahead of him. His ego won't allow it.

Here's a new poll out today:

Polls Show Carson Running Nearly Even To Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/15/today-in-politics-in-new-poll-carson-pulls-up-alongside-an-idling-trump/

This could be what happened in 2012 all over again: each candidate gets their moment at the top of polls while voters try and figure out who they like best. Looks like it's about to be Carson's turn if the momentum keeps up...