2016 Election

Quote: speedycrap

The economy should be improving in second part of 2014 and in very good shape in 2016 just before election.

I hope you're right, but right now I believe that the worst is yet to come with an economy that's on life support. I would gladly be wrong but I think that the hammer falls Q3 of next year (my guess as to when QE winds down) and we will end up living thru a several year nightmare.

QE would not suddenly wind down. It would only wind down when economy shows sign of life. And hopefully later part of next year.

I didn't say that it would suddenly wind down. Q3 is my SWAG as to when it begins. My problem is that the real estate market will not have improved sufficiently and everything will get pulled right back down with rising rates.

Quote: steeldco

By 2016, the economy will probably be in the dumps. Therefore, Hillary has zero chance of winning. As a matter of fact, I don't think that the Democrats will nominate her. Christie will stand a better chance, but only if the extremists in the Republican party disappear. Most normal people do not want any part of the Tea Party goofs.

Sorry but my belief is that the Republican party was associated with extremists despite what the Presidential candidate's view was. Nobody cares for the extremists. Hell, most people don't want change of ANY sort. The Republican just needs to wake up to have a chance.

If the GOP takes the lesson that they need to go more right, they might want to consider the election outcome of a John Kerry against Romney or McCain. Who would call it better than even odds? (leaving out for a moment, McCain was pretty much sunk by the crash at the worst moment in his run) . Kerry would either lose or would only win by a hair, I suspect.

Okay, but that said, it probably will be Hillary for the Democrats, who is likely a stronger candidate than Kerry ever would be.

Quote: steeldco

Sorry but my belief is that the Republican party was associated with extremists despite what the Presidential candidate's view was. Nobody cares for the extremists. Hell, most people don't want change of ANY sort. The Republican just needs to wake up to have a chance.

I fully agree the EXTREMISTS part. We are all moderate. We don't want sudden or drastic change under any, I mean any reason or excuse.

If the polls are right, 20% of American agree/side with the Tea Party. The same numbers that will call themselves 'liberals'.

The Reps would be best to stand a Tea Party candidate in the next election. It doesn't matter if the candidate loses. It moves the window of the debate to the right, which helps the Republicans overall. The Republicans keep fighting the election on the Democrats terms. Which, well, they seem to be bad at doing.

Might be the media bias, or might be moderate Republicans don't delineate themselves from their opposition in a way that gets votes.

My belief is it's the latter.

The Tea Party does have the huge problem of some elements on the Rep-right wanting to add moral outrage to everything. That won't fly to get swing voters. But the ten point economic pledge plan might. It's their best hope.

My only question is who the Libertarian party is going to throw up there this time, and if they can get more than 1% of the popular vote. I really was hoping Gary Johnson would reach the 2-3% range, and he came in with 0.99%.

If we manage to break the two-party hegemony in my lifetime, I'll be ecstatic. Although with the winner-take-all system in the US, it will just be 2 different parties. The only question is who is going to succeed the GOP.

Quote: thecesspit

The Reps would be best to stand a Tea Party candidate in the next election. It doesn't matter if the candidate loses.

I like this strategy. More please!!