The hoax that is the 1.41% house advantage on pass line bets

Here it is tutti-frutti, available at the "gamblers book store" in Vegas. I assume your duncecap fits snug?

"CRAPS SYSTEM TESTER"
This 1994 book was compiled at two major downtown casinos, after more than 300 hours of play and 35,000 rolls, to help crapshooters test their systems away from the tables. Presented in an easy-to-use multiple format showing numbers, hardways, and line decisions. The first column of each page assigns a number to each successive shooter. The second column tells how many numbers that shooter rolled before he sevened out. The third gives the actual numbers rolled. The fourth keeps a running total of rolls beginning at the start of the book. The fifth shows the line decisions based on the numbers actually rolled in column three. 292 pages, 8x11 plastic spiralbound. 1994.
0% Details Item 509402 Weight 1.50 lbs Author St. Germain, Erick Price: $24.95

I have in my Wincraps simulator all 35,097 dice rolls from the Zumma Craps System tester book.
I have also the roulette and baccarat testers.Here are stats from the 35,097 actual dice rolls from the Zumma Craps System tester book. I bought the CD version.
First entered in Excel now in Wincraps.

I have proof that the 244 pass wins in 495 trials has happened and comes close to the 3.585% exact probability of happening. 1 in 28 group of 495.
This first table below will show the outcomes of 21 groups of 495 where the 244 did NOT happen. It was to be expected as the expected value of a perfect 244/495 was less than 1. So I did not see an exact 244/495 in the 35,097 dice rolls starting with come out roll #1. It takes about 1700 dice rolls to see 495 pass line bets, on average. But someone could have started betting 495 pass line bets with come out roll #2. That is where the second table comes in below.

Group of 495	Pass	Miss
1	240	255
2	254	241
3	239	256
4	230	265
5	249	246
6	249	246
7	266	229
8	230	265
9	254	241
10	247	248
11	250	245
12	239	256
13	243	252
14	251	244
15	251	244
16	230	265
17	237	258
18	250	245
19	220	275
20	233	262
21	246	249

Now a friend of mine said to re-run in Excel but having every comeout roll start a group of 495. That resulted in 10,118 groups of 495. The 244/495 happened 323 times or 3.19% of the time. Expected Values being 363 and 3.585%.

Here are the frequencies below:

wins	count	EV	actual %	EV %
200	0	0	0.00%	0.00%
201	0	0	0.00%	0.00%
202	0	0	0.00%	0.00%
203	0	0	0.00%	0.00%
204	0	1	0.00%	0.01%
205	0	1	0.00%	0.01%
206	1	1	0.01%	0.01%
207	5	1	0.05%	0.01%
208	3	2	0.03%	0.02%
209	9	3	0.09%	0.03%
210	12	3	0.12%	0.03%
211	21	4	0.21%	0.04%
212	38	6	0.38%	0.06%
213	19	7	0.19%	0.07%
214	12	10	0.12%	0.09%
215	14	12	0.14%	0.12%
216	17	15	0.17%	0.15%
217	3	19	0.03%	0.19%
218	9	24	0.09%	0.23%
219	37	29	0.37%	0.29%
220	68	35	0.67%	0.35%
221	92	43	0.91%	0.42%
222	59	51	0.58%	0.51%
223	43	61	0.42%	0.60%
224	37	72	0.37%	0.71%
225	54	84	0.53%	0.83%
226	67	98	0.66%	0.97%
227	104	113	1.03%	1.12%
228	160	129	1.58%	1.28%
229	159	146	1.57%	1.45%
230	154	165	1.52%	1.63%
231	203	183	2.01%	1.81%
232	195	203	1.93%	2.01%
233	223	223	2.20%	2.20%
234	224	242	2.21%	2.40%
235	232	262	2.29%	2.59%
236	267	280	2.64%	2.77%
237	315	298	3.11%	2.94%
238	294	314	2.91%	3.10%
239	358	328	3.54%	3.24%
240	420	340	4.15%	3.36%
241	382	350	3.78%	3.46%
242	334	357	3.30%	3.53%
243	347	361	3.43%	3.57%
244	323	363	3.19%	3.58%
245	324	361	3.20%	3.57%
246	325	357	3.21%	3.53%
247	348	350	3.44%	3.46%
248	341	340	3.37%	3.36%
249	331	328	3.27%	3.24%
250	339	314	3.35%	3.10%
251	368	298	3.64%	2.94%
252	313	280	3.09%	2.77%
253	245	262	2.42%	2.58%
254	336	242	3.32%	2.39%
255	364	223	3.60%	2.20%
256	291	203	2.88%	2.00%
257	232	183	2.29%	1.81%
258	175	164	1.73%	1.62%
259	149	146	1.47%	1.45%
260	93	129	0.92%	1.28%
261	62	113	0.61%	1.12%
262	35	98	0.35%	0.97%
263	38	84	0.38%	0.83%
264	34	72	0.34%	0.71%
265	16	61	0.16%	0.60%
266	18	51	0.18%	0.51%
267	19	43	0.19%	0.42%
268	8	35	0.08%	0.35%
269	0	29	0.00%	0.29%
270	0	24	0.00%	0.23%
271	0	19	0.00%	0.19%
272	0	15	0.00%	0.15%
273	0	12	0.00%	0.12%
274	0	10	0.00%	0.09%
275	0	7	0.00%	0.07%
276	0	6	0.00%	0.06%
277	0	4	0.00%	0.04%
278	0	3	0.00%	0.03%
279	0	3	0.00%	0.03%
280	0	2	0.00%	0.02%

Last but not least a few pictures. First is the frequency chart. you may have to zoom in to see better. Im an old man and I do not know any other way but to zoom!


last is a snap shot of my Binomial Distribution chart in Excel for 495 pass line bets. I'll have to explain the chart at a later time. The green 69.88% on the right column is close to one standard divination. All bets were $5 flat, NO odds.


Remember players are always in the short run, where house advantage is dominated by variance.

proof that the 244/495 has and does actually happen. Now to finish my 412,000 actual dice rolls I have tracked over the years and get them into Wincraps!

The formula in Excel for calculating the probability of EXACTLY 244 pass in 495 trials is:
=BINOMDIST(244,495,244/495,FALSE)returns 3.585% for that event to happen. and of course 96.41% against happening.
Enjoy!

e43136

My final post to this thread.
I just returned from Vegas and logged or tracked my play. Three different downtown casinos.
The goal was to make 495 pass line bets.
I now have the actual rolls in Wincraps so I can replay the exact rolls and gather stats.

My pass line wins after 494 wagers were 244 wins and 250 losses.
exactly one more LOSS to witness a perfect 244/495! and it was almost at the sixteen hour mark.( not straight)

I explained this to the craps dealers and they had no clue to what I was saying! I told them to visit the Wizards site and read this thread, they said "what site?". OK, some downtown dice dealers are just there for the money!

Oh, yes, the shooter made the point on the fourth roll, after a point of 8 was established and it was also the third fire bet. That should give you a clue of where I played. Three fire bets pay 7 for 1.

Final score:
wins 245
losses 250
My total $ net was a +425 because I was making other bets and increasing my odds bets, both pass and come as was winning.

came close, but the 244/495 was not seen by me this trip!

Quote: 7winner

I now have the actual rolls in Wincraps so I can replay the exact rolls and gather stats.

Statistics for that particular set of 495 rolls.
It seems you did wind up pretty much where the math said you would wind up.


>My total net was a +425 because I was making other bets and increasing my odds bets.
Glad you wound up in the plus column as far as the dollars went, since you wound up just about where the math said you would on the PASS/SEVEN-OUT issue.

e43135

Quote: 7craps

You should start a new thread and show the probable outcomes of just 30 pass line bets, about an average hour of play.

Your wish is my command.

Tuttigym

Your pass-line bet is a sucker bet, and I don’t care what all the math guys tell you! You will hear them all say the same thing that at 1.41%. It’s the best bet on the table! What a joke, it’s an even money bet, which is a contract bet, and should only be made if the dice are in your hands! You are then paying rent on the table, so you can shoot the dice!

Once the point is established, that 1.41% goes away, and you can’t take the bet down!
You will never be there for 10,000 rolls of the dice, and most players will never only bet the pass-line bet. If the pass-line bet is all you are betting, you should give up the game, and play monopoly at home! You are just wasting your time, unless you only object in life is to prove the 1.41% HA!

The math does not lie, but you will not see it happen just like in a text-book, because you will not be at the table for 10,000 rolls or what ever it takes to hit that magic number perfect 495 number!

If you are playing craps you better ask your self one question:” Why”?
Everything is based on the math of the game, and it’s all in favor of the casino, not you that’s for damn sure!

If you answered the question that you want to win money, and that is why you play you shouldn’t be playing the pass-line!

Here is a post I wrote about the so-called free odds that the casinos came-up with you get players to bet the pass-line. Forget about someone trying to prove the 495 it just doesn’t matter. Yes it will happen, but what differences it makes, if you just played the pass-line bet only, you are going to lose in the long run!


Free Odds

Did you’re parents ever tell you nothing in life if free! Well if they did you will have no problem recognizing the fact that the so-called free odds are only free in the wording.

You are paying for the free odds with the pass line bet!
Years ago the odds bet was created as a marketing idea to get the player to bet the pass line bet! The house has the free odds bet, because they want you to bet on the pass line. So if the house wants you to bet the pass line do you think for one moment that the pass line bet is a good bet?

Ok I know that all the books say that the pass line bet is the best bet you can make, but really! The house is given you the free odds because they are now getting you to bet more money. The odds bet can only be made after first shot is made. Why is that because the only time you have any advantage is before the point is established, so you can’t bet the free odds on the come-out roll!

Do you think that the house would let you bet up to 100 X free odds if it was a good bet?
Come on guys you should know the answer to that question. If the bet was in your favor they wouldn’t let you bet it!

Ok you are a random roller, when you make a roll of the dice you might make any point there is on the come-out roll. That point just might be a 4 or 10, in theory you now have the worst box number you can have!
You now have 6 ways of losing the bet and only 3 ways of winning the bet. The house got you to bet more money on the pass line bet, because they were given you the so-called free odds, and a lot of times if they have strip odds 3x 4x 5x, you have to bet more on the pass line to get the so-called free odds you want!

You are in fact paying for your free odds by placing the pass line bet, that is a bad bet; again, I don’t care what the books are telling you, you can lose the come-out bet if the 2, 3, or 12 are made on the come-out roll!
You can win on the come-out roll with the 7 and 11 only!

The 7 can be made 6 ways and the 11 can be made 2 ways.
So you have 8 ways of winning the bet on the come out roll!

The 2 can be made 1 way. The 3 can be made 2 ways, and the 12 can be made 1 way!
So you have 4 ways of losing the come out bet!

Now you are saying what the hell is the matter with him, there is more ways of winning the bet on the come-out roll then there is of losing it, he must have lost his mind!

Yes there is, but guys did you forget about the other 24 ways the dice can be rolled to establish the point?
What happened to your good pass line bet now?
The casino sold you a pass line bet and got you to bet more money, on a bet that pays even money, if you want to take the free odds! You had to put money at risk on the come out roll to get your free odds!

Here is where the hook comes in, the shooter just made the 4 on the come out roll, you are now at a 6.66% disadvantage, and you want the free odds, so they sold you a bet on the 4, that most player will never even place the 4 because they read in a book, or someone told them it’s a bad bet!

The free odds bet are a marketing tool, to get you to bet the pass line bet!
The casinos never has put a good bets on the table for the player, every bet you bet on has a percentage disadvantage for the player!

The smart player would be tracking the table, and placing the points he wants, and not being forced into betting a bet, that he does not want to make, to get the so-called free odds!

Let’s say you were playing somewhere that only had 2 x odds so you bet $10 on the pass line and took $20 in you’re free odds. Congratulations you won you’re bet, so you are paid $10 for the pass line and $40 for you’re free odds bet, you just won $50! Man you’re so smart you sure beat the casino on that bet thanks’ to the free odds, you got paid double on you free odds, but only even money on your pass line bet!

Poor, poor little old me, I hate the pass line bet, and never will bet it unless I have the dice in my hands, so I guess I will have to place the 4 for the $30! Gee I won to, lets see most casinos have an automatic buy bet on the 4 and ten for anything over $25, but even if they didn’t I still won $54, or I could buy the 4 or 10 and get paid the true odds what is wrong with this picture?

Free odds, I think you can keep them, I have the option of betting on what I want, not what someone just made and might not make again! Anytime I see the word free, I see a big red flag that makes me look at, what it is going to cost me to get what ever is free!

When you are in a casino you are not playing a scenario, you have money on the table, and I hope you do not want to lose it! You are not setting in front of a computer and you are now in the real world! While it’s nice to know the math of the game, everything will not work out as in the books unless you have way to much time on your hands!
There are table trends, and that is when the math of the game will not work out, if you could roll 10,000 times in the hour or two that you are there, then I would worry about the math of the game!

The bet is not a hoax, just a bad bet, the hoax comes from the fact that everything will change after the point is established!

Super Rick

My only question then, Rick, is why do they offer Free Odds on the Don't Pass? I guess they want you to make that bet too.

cclub79

You got it; the casinos want you to bet on anything they can get you to bet on!
What is so hard to understand, you are playing a Negative-Expectation game!

They have the advantage on both sides, and as soon as you understand that, it might open your eyes to what’s the game is all about! “Taking You Money”

The pass-line bet or the don’t bets, are both bad bets!
But think about one thing, why can you take your don’t bet down after the point has been established? Because the casinos would want you too, you now have the so-called advantage!

The free odds bet is there so you will bet more money, did you win more money by betting with the free odds? No would be the answer to that question! Did the casino get you to bet more money with the so-called free odds, yes would be the answer to that question!

Place the point you want to bet on, take it down after you hit it, or be locked in on your pass-line bet. What makes more sense to you! The math guys will say that it does not matter, but if I took the bet down, I won after the first hit on that point. I am now in control of my own destiny, how about you?

The house has the advantage on every bet you make, and you do need to know the math of the game, Thanks math guys for that, but don’t think you are playing with the house when you are betting the don’t, you are not, they have the edge on you!

Super Rick

Quote: superrick

The free odds bet is there so you will bet more money, did you win more money by betting with the free odds? No would be the answer to that question!

Of course I win more money, and that is for both dos and don'ts. Is it possible you've never tried it?

Quote: superrick

Place the point you want to bet on, take it down after you hit it, or be locked in on your pass-line bet. What makes more sense to you! The math guys will say that it does not matter, but if I took the bet down, I won after the first hit on that point. I am now in control of my own destiny, how about you?

The house has the advantage on every bet you make, and you do need to know the math of the game, Thanks math guys for that, but don’t think you are playing with the house when you are betting the don’t, you are not, they have the edge on you!

There should be a good reason why you don't give the house edges on place. Maybe you don't know them. Maybe they cannot stand the comparison to the dreaded 1.4%. We'll never know.

Quote: superrick

Place the point you want to bet on, take it down after you hit it, or be locked in on your pass-line bet. What makes more sense to you!

Your pass line bet comes down after you hit it, too. Both make sense, but I'm getting a better return on my Pass Line Bet (.326% HA). The only disadvantage is I don't get to choose which number (4/5/6/8/9/10) that I get to play. Big deal. I'd rather take the better bet than try to guess what number is coming. The Pass line bet assigns me a random one. Works for me!

cclub79

You only think you are getting a .326% HA. What happens when the shooter makes the point 10 on the come out roll? After the point has been established you now have to figure in what the point is and the HA the house has on that bet, you took odds on the pass-line bet, and now you have to pay the price for the odds you took.

Quote: cclub79

Your pass line bet comes down after you hit it, too. Both make sense, but I'm getting a better return on my Pass Line Bet (.326% HA). The only disadvantage is I don't get to choose which number (4/5/6/8/9/10) that I get to play. Big deal. I'd rather take the better bet than try to guess what number is coming. The Pass line bet assigns me a random one. Works for me!

Why in the world would anybody want a random bet, which is locked in after you bet it?

You’re at a 1.47% disadvantage with your pass-line bet to start with, and you are only getting even money on, then you take the so-called free odds thinking you are now reducing you disadvantage! Then you have to add-on the disadvantage you just put your self under when you took the so-called free odds!

Place Bets disadvantage

6 and 8 1.515

5 and 9 4.0

4 and 10 6.66

So now the shooter made the 4 on the come-out roll you are now at an 8.13% disadvantage!

If I bet the 4 and put the same amount of money on my place bet as you did with $10 on the pass-line and $20 in odds you would have won $10 pass-line and $40 in odds grand total of $50!

Now with my $30 place bet, I would have won $54 what’s wrong with this picture? I put my self a risk for say 3 or 4 rolls of the dice, the shooter made the 4 so who won more? I could have bet the 10 and did the same thing when you were waiting for your pass-line bet to hit, I could have been paid and off the table with my profit! While you were locked into a bet that you could not take down!

Don’t be blinded by the math, thinking you are getting the better bet! That 1.47% is going to cost you money, just because you are going to take the so-called free odds, which come at a price!

Super Rick

Wher eon earth do you get 8.13% from?

Quote: thecesspit

Wher eon earth do you get 8.13% from?

I figured he meant 8.333%, which is the house edge on a 4/10 point taking 3x odds if you DON'T have the chance to win on the Come out. (Essentially the same as a put bet). But you DO win on a come out, 2x more often than you lose, which is something Rick doesn't consider. Also, he's arguing the odds bet "puts you under more", but it actually lowers the edge from 33.33% to 8.33%.

Perhaps a question for Rick would be what if you could take 100x odds? Pass line of $5, backed with $500 pays $1005, whereas the place bet of $505 only pays $909.

I understand you like the idea of not being "locked in", but you should at least be willing to consider that for some players that is not a big deal. We are at the casino to gamble till we win or lose, not to keep putting bets up and then taking them down before they resolve.

Oh well, I guess I'll just be "Blinded by the math" and keep my majority winning streak going for the summer. I apologize if anyone was hoping this thread would die, but I felt since it was a "new" poster we should engage. Clearly any further posts are just going to be heads smashing against the wall. Good night and good luck to the longest thread on the forum!

We are getting a little sloppy with the math all the way around.

1.41 is the all around figure for the pass line bet for ALL circumstances.

A pass line bet has a 50% advantage on the come out roll and if a 4/10 rolls then it has a 66.6% disadvantage. Any odds placed merely reduce the total disadvantage on a percentage basis but the original bet still loses at a 2 - 1 rate.

Rick is a good shooter (I have shot with him) so he is leaning towards the numbers he actually rolls and wishes he could just get up to the table, place his numbers and start shooting. Rick that is called WOTCO, go ahead and do it and let's again bury this thread!

No one places the 4 for $1005. You would buy it and if it rolls your payoff would be $985 after vig.

I think Tuttigym has a valid point, here.

I've heard of a similar fallacy for the pass-line called the 17,820 rule, which states the player should win an average of 8,784 times out of that number of trials!!! Imagine how long that would take to confirm! My friend heard of a 231,660 rule (can't remember how many times should be be winners). ;)

Quote: Kelmo

I've heard of a similar fallacy for the pass-line called the 17,820 rule, which states the player should win an average of 8,784 times out of that number of trials!!! Imagine how long that would take to confirm!

It would take about 2/10ths of a second using any number of craps simulators...

Quote: rdw4potus

It would take about 2/10ths of a second using any number of craps simulators...

How long would the computer take to show that 231,660 *10^1,000,000,000,000 would result in an average of 114,192*10^1,000,000,000,000 wins??

cclub79

You are right if you add the PL and the point together you now have you true disadvantage! This is what none of the math guys take into consideration.

You are also right on your 100 times odd, although if you were the average player that was betting red chips the bet would not pay the same, and let’s take a $5 PL bet with 2x odds. You have a $15 bet on the point of ten, which most of these math guys would never make because they say it’s a bad bet, and will slight the 4 and 10 and its 6.66% disadvantage!

Now if you do the math on what the two bets are going to play you, you with your PL bet and two times odds. You get paid $5 for you PL bet and $20 for your So-Called free Odds, Right?

Now stupid old me, because I don’t believe everything I read in the books and my lack of a PhD in math bets the same $15 on the placed bet say the 10, I only need to see it hit one time and I now get paid $29 for the same investment of my $15, Damn I am sure glad I don’t have that PhD and all these math guys told me I was so stupid for making that bet!

We can argue this point till we are all blue in the face, and on our death beds, but in the real world on the craps tables, most players would better off with a placed bet!

It seems to me that when the math guys look at any math problem that has to do with craps they just look at the one point they are trying to prove with their beloved math, and I want to thank them for all they do, with the math off the game It gives me a good base as to what should happen with the game, but nothing is written in stone, there are trends in the game that does skewer the math.

I get the biggest kick out of these guys that will tell you about running the numbers in a craps simulator, what the hells is wrong with them it’s a simulator, they are not on a real table and they don’t have their money on the line, and even if they did they wouldn’t have any money left by the time they hit 10,000 rolls of the dice.

No craps player is on the table for 10,000 rolls of the dice and nobody plays just a PL bet, if that is all they are playing they are just wasting time, but if that is what floats your boat more power to you!

For all you math guys please tell us all how many times a year do you really play the game in a live casino? I know this should not have anything to do with your math, I am just curious, as to how many times you practice what you preach!

The other thing I want to know is how many of you have real live data that you have taking from a casino when you were playing on a craps table?

Now even though I am not a math guy I do have all the data from all the rolls for everybody on the table every time I play craps! Do I go back and analyze all the data I have, and compile it into some big math problem no, all I need to know is what is happening right there on the table when it’s happening and I am playing to see the trends that is going on! After all we all know that what happened yesterday will not happen today! Right?

This is where a bad bets that I would never make, can become a great bets, what would you do if you are seeing everybody making the 2 or the 12 and all you are seeing is craps numbers? Would you just stand there and not bet them after all they are bad bets, all the math guys will tell you this, and hell I even know they are bad bet?

Math has its place, and thanks guys for letting us know about what we shouldn’t be doing, but really if the math is skewered when you are on the tables are you going to win or lose because of it?

Go out and collect the real live data from casinos craps tables, then tell us what you found out about your math. Then have the presents of mind to remember what happened yesterday will not happen today. Right?

This has got to be the best site on the web, when it comes to finding out about the math of any game in the casino, and that is why I am here. The Wizard does a fantastic job and all the guys that helps out on some of these problems, but there is more to any game besides just the math!

Short term data is more valuable to a craps player, when they are on the table playing the game, then long-term data, which happened last year!

For me the best bet on the tables is the 4's or 10's for the rest of you guys this could be the worst bet you will ever make, and there are days that I would just be plain stupid for betting the 4's or 10's because I am not hitting them.

Do I bet the 4 and 10 on the other players on the table? “NO”
My data tells me to bet it on my self, when I am on the table and making the 4's or 10's, but if I am not making them, it tells me what I should be betting on!

LOL Superrick

you place bet, 7 rolls you lose.
me pass or come bet, 7 rolls I win.

what number comes The most.....the seven.

CASE CLOSED

Quote: superrick

cclub79

You are right if you add the PL and the point together you now have you true disadvantage! This is what none of the math guys take into consideration.

You are also right on your 100 times odd, although if you were the average player that was betting red chips the bet would not pay the same, and let’s take a $5 PL bet with 2x odds. You have a $15 bet on the point of ten, which most of these math guys would never make because they say it’s a bad bet, and will slight the 4 and 10 and its 6.66% disadvantage!

Now if you do the math on what the two bets are going to play you, you with your PL bet and two times odds. You get paid $5 for you PL bet and $20 for your So-Called free Odds, Right?

Why so-called? It's free odds. It pays $20 for $10. I now have $15 out to win $25 on the point of 10 (or 4). Note that I also had $5 of it out to win on a 7 or 11. We can't past-post this bet, and that maybe why you don't like the Pass-Line bet, but the pass-line works for -all- numbers. This isn't a case of 'math guys' or not.

If I placed the $15 on the 4/10, I'd be risking $15 to win $27, and has the 6.66% disadvantage. If you buy the 4,10 for $15, your risking $15 to win $29 (commission post win) and the house has -2.22%.

Thing is, I don't need to hit 4/10 twice when making a PL bet. I only need to hit what I rolled earlier. The chances of that for a 4 or 10 before a seven is 1 in 3. I'm betting $10 on that (my odds bet) to win $20. 0% house advantage.

I've had to place $5 on the line to make that bet (call it the commission). The joy of the Pass Line is it can win straight up, or allows me to get on any other point. And it works out as -1.41% over all. Which is better than the -2.22% your getting.

Plain and simple. Now if you -think- your streaky and will hit the 4 and 10 more often than the centre numbers, then placing the 4/10 is a better option. Actually placing $20 to win $39 is even better (-1.667 house edge).

Quote:

Now stupid old me, because I don’t believe everything I read in the books and my lack of a PhD in math bets the same $15 on the placed bet say the 10, I only need to see it hit one time and I now get paid $29 for the same investment of my $15, Damn I am sure glad I don’t have that PhD and all these math guys told me I was so stupid for making that bet!

We can argue this point till we are all blue in the face, and on our death beds, but in the real world on the craps tables, most players would better off with a placed bet!

This is where I disagree with you. The real world of the craps table and the 'maths' are the same place. It doesn't matter whose where, but if i stand at the craps table making $5 pass line with double odds, and you stand there making $15 buys on the 4/10, I'd wager I'd do better PER bet than you. Over an hour or two you may make less bets (I'm not clear when you'll play the 4/10, and what your data is), but then making less bets is less exposure to the house edge, so you may do well with your -2.22% edge and nice variance on the 4/10 only and you could walk away with more money than the % double odds bettor. Absolutely. That's the real world and that's the math.

Long term is the short term repeated. There's no magical point when the long term suddenly happens. All I can tell you is for one hour these are your potential results and when you play, you'll get one of them. It may be positive, it may be a negative.

>you place bet, 7 rolls you lose.
>me pass or come bet, 7 rolls I win.
I think this should have been:
"me DontPass or DontCome bet, 7 rolls I win."

>what number comes The most.....the seven.
True. Most definitely true! Absolutely indisputably true!
Though I do hear that a bit over a year ago at the Borgata in Atlantic City you would have had a bit of a wait for that most frequently rolled seven. I think it was almost three and a half hours. Thats a real long time to be hearing "Down Behind" while you avoid making place bets. I think that is why the casinos don't really care what bets you make. I'm often a WrongBettor but although I have a preference for The Dark Side and seven remains the most frequently rolled number, I still hear that Down Behind all too often.

FleaStiff

Great observation, you are still playing a negative-expectation game and it does not matter what side of the line you are on!

Quote: superrick

Great observation, you are still playing a negative-expectation game and it does not matter what side of the line you are on!

Oh, it matters. Short term it matters, because either the RightWay bettor is going to win OR the WrongWay bettor is going to win, so it sure matters! It matters to me!
To the mathematically inclined, it matters too because being mathematically inclined they enjoy taking things out to some extra decimal places and therefore they clearly see a minute difference between the PassLine and the DontPassLine. The casino doesn't seem to see any real difference, they just want your money at risk and don't much care about whether you carry things out to a few extra decimal places or not.

But you are right that it is still a negative expectation game ... but once a DontPass player is past that initial hurdle, he is slightly better off than all those other players who are on the PassLine. He wants that Seven and the Seven is most likely to be rolled.

I deal on games every day where there are 7 do players and 3 don't players and after a half hour they are all down money.

Quote: superrick

let’s take a $5 PL bet with 2x odds. You have a $15 bet on the point of ten, which most of these math guys would never make because they say it’s a bad bet, and will slight the 4 and 10 and its 6.66% disadvantage! . . . We can argue this point till we are all blue in the face, and on our death beds, but in the real world on the craps tables, most players would better off with a placed bet! . . . I get the biggest kick out of these guys that will tell you about running the numbers in a craps simulator, what the hells is wrong with them it’s a simulator, they are not on a real table and they don’t have their money on the line, and even if they did they wouldn’t have any money left by the time they hit 10,000 rolls of the dice.

Talk about omitting inconvenient facts! How about omitting the two-to-one advantage on the comeout. That is no small part of pass line winnings.

Quote: FleaStiff

either the RightWay bettor is going to win OR the WrongWay bettor is going to win, so it sure matters! It matters to me!

Experienced players can tell you of many times when both sides won or lost. It is far from a zero-sum game for the two sides.

This thread is gold.

appistappis

Some players or the math guys just don’t get what a negative-expectation game is!

You both lose the right betters and the wrong betters, can lose at about the same rate if the tables are choppy!

For the wrong players they have to get pass the come-out rolls and just how many times do you see where the seven is killing both sides, to start with the wrong betters get hammered with the come-out sevens. One shooter can make 4 or 5 sevens in a row, and then establish a point to only have a PSO; the only winner was the house!

The right side guys will go across when the point is established, only to have the PSO beat them to death! Then the dark side players will only have the one bet that most will take odds on only to have the point be made to get hammered every time the shooter makes his point.

The only reason appistappis has a job is because 98% of all the players will lose over the long run!

 SanchoPanza

Yes I did leave out the fact that you might have what you call a two-to-one advantage on the come-out roll for a pass-line bet, although like most math guys you never figure in the other 24 ways that the point can be established, you are just looking at that two-to-one advantage. Just like in magic you are being redirected, and then when the point was established you now have a new set of figures to deal with. And again you are locked into your bet.

You also think you have the best bet there is with the so-call free odds! I would just like to know when the casinos started to let you have a good bet, on anything. That bet was developed to get you to bet the pass-line bet, and also to get you to put more money on the table!

By betting your PL bet you locked your options, the only way you can win is for the point to be made again; did you forget what you are trying to tell me about the advantage, because the 7 was going to be made on the come out roll? What changed is the roll going on forever now that the point was established, or will the math of the game bite you in your butt when the 7 is made 4 rolls after the point was established?

Math is math. Pick your slow drip poison.

The HA 1.414 percent for the pass, 1.364 percent for the don't pass. 1.515 percent for placing the 6 and 8. Taking more odds (for the do and don't) doesn't change your EV but it lowers the HA.

The only way you can win money in craps, over the long run, is to catch a professional dice setter or become one yourself (if you believe they even exists).

Otherwise, don't pass or pass, ride the variance wave and do what you think works for you.

Quote: superrick

Yes I did leave out the fact that you might have what you call a two-to-one advantage on the come-out roll for a pass-line bet, although like most math guys you never figure in the other 24 ways that the point can be established, you are just looking at that two-to-one advantage.

That is some way to try to make a point--cutting out a major part of the wins. And if it's not a 2-to-1 advantage on the comeout, what would you call it?

Quote: superrick

You also think you have the best bet there is with the so-call free odds!

Got a better one? If not and you don't like the only bet in the casino with no house advantage, casino gambling may not be for you.

Don't pass features an 8:3 disadvantage on the comeout, while Pass features a 2:1 advantage on the comeout.

The odds aren't really free, as you have to bet the pass line to use the odds. All you are doing with the odds is increasing your variance. There's no point in saying that the HA on the odds is 0 percent, because you can never bet the odds alone. The odds on DP are "free" as well, but you've got to suffer through the come out roll to get there.

Quote: boymimbo

There's no point in saying that the HA on the odds is 0 percent, because you can never bet the odds alone.

Then let superrick bet 25 or 50 times odds and knock the house advantage down to the thousandths of a percent, as if that would matter.

Quote: boymimbo

Math is math. Pick your slow drip poison.

The HA 1.414 percent for the pass, 1.364 percent for the don't pass. 1.515 percent for placing the 6 and 8. Taking more odds (for the do and don't) doesn't change your EV but it lowers the HA.

The difference between the pass and don't pass is 1 unit out of 1980 in ev. In my view, the 1.364% figure is misleading.

Quote: boymimbo

The only way you can win money in craps, over the long run, is to catch a professional dice setter or become one yourself (if you believe they even exists).

Not true. In the "long run" for an individual player, it is quite possible to win money; in fact, it is certain that there will be players who are ahead "lifetime".

Quote: boymimbo

Otherwise, don't pass or pass, ride the variance wave and do what you think works for you.

That's exactly it - "ride the variance wave"!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: boymimbo

Don't pass features an 8:3 disadvantage on the comeout, while Pass features a 2:1 advantage on the comeout.

The odds aren't really free, as you have to bet the pass line to use the odds. All you are doing with the odds is increasing your variance. There's no point in saying that the HA on the odds is 0 percent, because you can never bet the odds alone..

I disagree. The point in saying the HA on the odds is 0 percent is: 1) that it is true >:-) and 2) to emphasize the fact that your expected loss DOES NOT CHANGE whether or not you take/lay odds. I think it is misleading to say that taking/laying odds "reduces the HA"; they are separate bets, one with an HA of 1.4%, the other with an HA of zero. To me the concept of expected value (ev) is much more clear - how much does each bet cost.

Looking at the flat and odds part of the bet separately points you to the fact that, when you make a come bet, you are adding to your expected loss, whereas if you put that money on the odds, you are not. To me, that is an important principle.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: goatcabin

The difference between the pass and don't pass is 1 unit out of 1980 in ev. In my view, the 1.364% figure is misleading.

Why?
1/1980 = 0.0505%
1.4141% - 0.0505% = 1.3636%
It all adds up.

Quote:

In the "long run" for an individual player, it is quite possible to win money; in fact, it is certain that there will be players who are ahead "lifetime".

Sure: I'm one of them (granted, my life isn't over yet). And I can point to exactly the three high +variance event that put me up, a session at Harrah's Tahoe where I turned $25 into $4200, another at Caesars LV where I turned $25 into $1200, and another at the MGM LV where I turned $200 into $1400. I've played a lot more dice than that, but my other losses, mitigated by my other winnings (recent Vegas trip was +200 or so) don't come close to $6000. So I'm up... for now.

But this whole discussion about the passline and advantage/disadvantage before vs. after the comeout is just illusion because you can't change the bet after the comeout. You might know more about your likely chances of winning if you haven't already won or lost, but that's not any different than betting on blackjack and getting excited or disappointed based on your first two cards. The fact is that in both blackjack and craps (passline), the bet is made up front and you can't take it back mid-way through the proposition (surrender excepted).

For the passline, the odds of winning the bet are 49.3% when it is made. The rest -- how the bet unfolds and what your mid-bet chances are to win -- are part of the excitement of the game but ultimately aren't meaningful. If a player doesn't *like* the way the bet unfolds, and chooses not to play it for that reason, that's fine -- but it's not relevant to what the edge is, or whether the edge is lower than the place bets (it is).

Wow! I never thought this thread would start up again! Superrick is basing his arguments on a couple of assumptions, it seems:

1) that an observed "trend" in the numbers being rolled gives information on future rolls AND
2) that he can influence the dice probabilities to make some numbers more likely, some less

Of course, if either of those assumptions were true, then it would make sense to pick what numbers to bet on, rather than let the dice decide.

He keeps saying, "it is a negative-expectation game". Well, of course it is. The negative expectation, however, is higher on the place bets that it is on the line bets or, especially, odds bets. If you look at it from the point of view of expected value, it's quite clear:

$6 place bet on 6: ev -$.0909
$5 passline bet, plus $10 odds: ev: -$.0707

For every bet you make, the expected loss on the place bet gets larger than that on the line bet by a couple of cents. You are getting a lot more variance, however, from the pass plus odds, and variance is what gives you a chance to win.

So, let's separate out the two main issues. With random rolling, betting line plus odds gives you a much better chance of coming out ahead, because you have less expected loss and more variance.

If you believe in "dice influencing" or if you believe in "trends" that continue into the future, that is another story, because the expected losses are not the same any more.

BTW, all those numbers of decisions are just extrapolations from the 244/251=495. I use 1980, because that's the smallest integer that can reflect the chances of winning/losing all the different points. The "perfect 1980" is:
440 comeout win
220 comeout loss
125 win on 6
150 lose on 6
125 win on 8
150 lose on 8
88 win on 5
132 lose on 5
88 win on 9
132 lose on 9
55 win on 4
110 lose on 4
55 win on 10
110 lose on 4

Its usefulness is NOT in predicting that, if you play 1980 decisions, you are likely to get exactly that distribution of results; it is in telling you what the probabilities of the different outcomes are. The more bets you make, the less likely extreme variance from expectation is. For example, if you make 30 passline bets, the probabilit of winning 18 or more (60% or more) of them is .161. If you make 60 bets, the probability of winning 36 or more of them (the same 60%) is just .0628. When you get up to 495 bets, the probability of winning 248 or more of them is .3765. This is why, the more you gamble on a negative-expectation game, the less likely you are to be ahead. Of course, this applies to all bets in craps except the odds bets.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Boymimbo

Finally someone who is not blinded by the math of the game, just as you pointed out there is no such thing as free odds on a craps table, you are paying for that bet with you’re PL bet! Now it might be true if you were playing in a casino that had 100 x odds that you would win more money then me if you took the 100 x odds. The whole problem with that assumption is most players will never do that, and are just two unit players. One unit on the PL two behind!

Quote: boymimbo

Don't pass features an 8:3 disadvantage on the come-out, while Pass features a 2:1 advantage on the come-out.

The odds aren't really free, as you have to bet the pass line to use the odds. All you are doing with the odds is increasing your variance. There's no point in saying that the HA on the odds is 0 percent, because you can never bet the odds alone. The odds on DP are "free" as well, but you've got to suffer through the come out roll to get there.

The other thing that most players never look at but all the math guys will try to pound into your head is you might end up with the 4 or 10 when you have the PL bet! Aren’t they the worst place bets you can have? So what happens when the shooters goes on a roll in the twenties and you never get paid on your PL bet?
I know, I know you are going to stand right next to me a tell me how great of a bet you made, defending the bet forever even though you will lose more than the smart player that never makes a PL bet unless they have the dice in their hands and now are paying rent on the table to shoot! 

Remember that free odds bet was developed to get you to bet more money, where the guy that just place the six or eight might get paid off on his single unit bet a few times before the seven does come. On this twenty roll that just happened I could have gotten paid many times on that same roll and you didn’t make one pay off on the roll. Also I could have called off all my bets if that sinking feeling came over me, and I had that premonition that the seven was coming!

It does happen, and sometimes you just got to go with your feelings. Don’t laugh to hard on that last statement, because you might be the guy that is standing next to me when I did it and I was right, but you on the other hand you couldn’t do the same, as you locked your self into a bet that you could not turn off or take down!

Sure I might have been wrong when I called off the bets I had, but you my friend didn’t have that choice!

LOL Superrick

Quote: superrick

Boymimbo

The other thing that most players never look at but all the math guys will try to pound into your head is you might end up with the 4 or 10 when you have the PL bet! Aren’t they the worst place bets you can have? So what happens when the shooters goes on a roll in the twenties and you never get paid on your PL bet?
I know, I know you are going to stand right next to me a tell me how great of a bet you made, defending the bet forever even though you will lose more than the smart player that never makes a PL bet unless they have the dice in their hands and now are paying rent on the table to shoot! 

Remember that free odds bet was developed to get you to bet more money, where the guy that just place the six or eight might get paid off on his single unit bet a few times before the seven does come. On this twenty roll that just happened I could have gotten paid many times on that same roll and you didn’t make one pay off on the roll. Also I could have called off all my bets if that sinking feeling came over me, and I had that premonition that the seven was coming!
LOL Superrick

As usual, you look only at the side of the question where betting across is advantageous. Of course, if I have only the 4 or 10, the pass point, and you bet across, you lose all of those bets if the seven shows, while I only lose the one.

Yes, sometimes it is frustrating to watch place bettors raking in the money while my pass point is not rolled, but that is the other side of the coin. Every betting strategy is chasing a certain pattern. The pattern I chase is : comeout win OR point...point. When my passline bet goes to a point, I don't really care about the rolls that intervene between either the seven-out or my point hitting. Some patterns will support you, some me, but overall you expect to lose more money than I do. The only bet I make that has a negative ev is the passline bet - all the place bets (or buy) have their own expected loss.

Yes, the odds bet was created to give people an incentive to make the passline bet, and it's a good incentive. You can get variance by increasing the amount of your passine bet, or by making a bunch of place bets, but you add expected loss with every dollar you use that way. By taking odds, you increase variance without adding any expected loss.

Again, all my comments apply to RANDOM dice outcomes. If you believe you can influence the dice, then that is a different story; I do not believe it.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: superrick

you are paying for that bet with you’re PL bet!

The fact that you cannot name a better bet on the table speaks loudest of all.

Quote: MathExtremist

Why?
1/1980 = 0.0505%
1.4141% - 0.0505% = 1.3636%
It all adds up.

That figure is counting the bet amounts of the pushes in the denominator. If you do not count them, then the HA is 1.403% My point was that the ev is a clearer indicator of what's going on.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: SanchoPanza

The fact that you cannot name a better bet on the table speaks loudest of all.

Any place bet that hits one time before the 7 out, and the bet is turned off, or is down waiting for the 7 out to come!

While you are locked into to your bet that can not be taking down, win or lose, you can't change the out-come, I can!

Quote: superrick

Any place bet that hits one time before the 7 out, and the bet is turned off, or is down waiting for the 7 out to come! While you are locked into to your bet that can not be taking down, win or lose, you can't change the out-come, I can!

Anticipating the futility of the exercise, one cannot resist pointing out that some of those place bets have a house advantage that exceeds 6 percent. If someone wants to assert that a 6 percent house advantage is superior to one of 1.4 or even 0.6 percent, that is what will have to stand.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Anticipating the futility of the exercise, one cannot resist pointing out that some of those place bets have a house advantage that exceeds 6 percent. If someone wants to assert that a 6 percent house advantage is superior to one of 1.4 or even 0.6 percent, that is what will have to stand.

That the problem is nether are a good bet till you get paid off on the bet, your 1.4 does you no good till it is paid off and that just might be never, and most players will take the so-called free odds that just might be on that bet that exceeds 6 percent.

While againI might just bet on the 6 or 8 that would have a lower house edge then your bet that is locked in!

Quote: superrick

That the problem is nether are a good bet till you get paid off on the bet, your 1.4 does you no good till it is paid off and that just might be never, and most players will take the so-called free odds that just might be on that bet that exceeds 6 percent.

The above is almost unintelligible. You persist in comparing a passline bet, after it has gone to a point, to a place bet on the same or a different number. This is a common fallacious argument in favor of place bets over line bets. The place bet presumably wasn't working on the comeout roll, when the pass bet had eight ways to win, four to lose; or, if it was working (you can call those bet ON, of course), it would lose while the pass was winning on comeout seven. You cannot directly compare the post-comeout part of a line bet with a place bet. If the player does take the odds on a 4 or 10, the 2-to-1 payoff balances the .333 probability of winning.

Quote: superrick

While againI might just bet on the 6 or 8 that would have a lower house edge then your bet that is locked in!

No, it doesn't have a lower house edge than the pass bet, taken as a whole. In fact, if you take enough odds, you can even make a put bet with odds that pays off better than a place bet, but I do not advocate that.

The flexibility of place bets is a nice feature, to be sure, but the odds bets actually have the same flexibility; you can call them ON or OFF or take them down any time you "feel the seven" coming on. The reason you cannot do that with the pass/come flat part is that you have already had the player-advantageous part of the bet, so the casino is not going to let you skip the casino-advantageous part, nor should they. They will, however, gladly let you take your don't pass/don't come bet down after it has survived the comeout.

Are you actually tuttigym, BTW?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Quote: goatcabin

The flexibility of place bets is a nice feature, to be sure, but the odds bets actually have the same flexibility; you can call them ON or OFF or take them down any time you "feel the seven" coming on. The reason you cannot do that with the pass/come flat part is that you have already had the player-advantageous part of the bet, so the casino is not going to let you skip the casino-advantageous part, nor should they. They will, however, gladly let you take your don't pass/don't come bet down after it has survived the come-out.

They will, however, gladly let you take your don't pass/don't come bet down after it has survived the come-out.

Sure they will you now have that advantage on them, why wouldn't they let you take it down!

Here is the point I am trying to make, most players will never only play the pass-line bet. They take the so-called free odds, and they do not take full odds behind! If they do you now have more on the one bet then even you would bet, as you said in your last post!

As you said the place bet presumably wasn't working on the come-out roll, when the pass bet had eight ways to win, four to lose, but again you are not taking into consideration that you also have 24 ways to establish to point! You make it sound like the eight ways to win is a great bet, but what about the other 24 ways to establish to point?

Are you actually tuttigym, BTW?

No just a guy that lives and plays in Vegas just about everyday!

LOL Superrick

goatcabin you are wasting your time trying to explain the obvious to these guys...they use that 'john patrick logic' which of course is totally wrong........if they go in a store and buy something for 3 bucks and we only pay 2 for the same thing, its their problem.

Quote: superrick

Here is the point I am trying to make, most players will never only play the pass-line bet.
They take the so-called free odds, and they do not take full odds behind!
If they do you now have more on the one bet then even you would bet, as you said in your last post!

Goatcabin would also agree that a player betting the pass line and taking odds should always bet less on the come out roll and put most of his bet on the odds.

If you are happy betting a total of $15 on the pass, do it with the most odds possible. $5 w/$10 works also $3 w/$12 odds is even better if you can make $3 line bets. And those $3 tables that have 50 cents make your 6&8 odds either $12.50 or bump it up to $15.

If you are a $5 player and can not afford or do not want to afford, you would be better off with $1w/$4 odds or $2w/$3 odds, but then where could you play that at?

Always taking max odds IS foolish if it is more than you normally wager. It creates more volatility and a greater chance of bankroll ruin. Most pass line players want an extended time at the Craps table and max odds will not give you that.

Quote: superrick

Here is the point I am trying to make, most players will never only play the pass-line bet. They take the so-called free odds, and they do not take full odds behind! If they do you now have more on the one bet then even you would bet, as you said in your last post!

As you said the place bet presumably wasn't working on the come-out roll, when the pass bet had eight ways to win, four to lose, but again you are not taking into consideration that you also have 24 ways to establish to point! You make it sound like the eight ways to win is a great bet, but what about the other 24 ways to establish to point?

Of course there are; 2/3 of the time a point will be established, but if the bet is resolved on the comeout roll, you expect to win twice as many as you lose. The place bets never get a situation like that, and when you ignore the first aspect of the line bets, you fall into a fallacy.

A place bet on the six is resolved by winning or losing
6 ways to lose $6 = -36
5 ways to win $7 = +35
net of $1 loss, divided by $66 = -.01515
average number of rolls to resolution = 36/11 = 3.27

The pass bet does not match up with that one-to-one.
It starts before the place bets become active (by default), and may be resolved before or after place bets are resolved, but takes, on average, 3.375 rolls to resolve.
In simplest terms:

440 ways to win $5 = 2200
220 ways to lose $5 = -1100
536 wins to win on points = 2680
784 ways to lose on points = -3920
---------------
-$140 net / 9900 = -.01414

Whether you take odds or not is irrelevant to the expected value of the passline bet, because the odds bets pay off the inverse of the odds against winning. What the odds bet do is add variance, the more you bet the more variance. Variance works both ways - it takes advantage of good luck, and costs you more for bad luck.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA