The Great Craps Debate
Poll
 | 5 votes (29.41%) | ||
| | 12 votes (70.58%) |
17 members have voted
August 18th, 2010 at 9:14:29 PM
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NB: This is a continuation of this thread.
RESOLVED: The best craps strategy is pass line with odds, followed by two (or one) come bets with odds.
Point of information #1: The optimal craps strategy is not to play, or to play on your buddy's odds.
Point of information #2: People are going to gamble. If you are going to play, the best strategy is the one that limits your losses and keeps the action interesting.
In my opinion, having too many come bets out lessens the fun of the game. You are constantly stressing over the seven when you have a lot of bets out, and are always waiting for the big roll to make a lot of money; otherwise, you are bleeding chips. When the big roll does come, and the ATM kicks in, it feels just like that: an ATM. You are just getting payback for all the losses you incurred before (or will incur). Two come bets with odds seems like the right amount -- enough action to keep things interesting, and just little enough on the table to ease the sting of a seven out. (I could be convinced that one come bet is sufficient, as well.) What do people think?
RESOLVED: The best craps strategy is pass line with odds, followed by two (or one) come bets with odds.
Point of information #1: The optimal craps strategy is not to play, or to play on your buddy's odds.
Point of information #2: People are going to gamble. If you are going to play, the best strategy is the one that limits your losses and keeps the action interesting.
In my opinion, having too many come bets out lessens the fun of the game. You are constantly stressing over the seven when you have a lot of bets out, and are always waiting for the big roll to make a lot of money; otherwise, you are bleeding chips. When the big roll does come, and the ATM kicks in, it feels just like that: an ATM. You are just getting payback for all the losses you incurred before (or will incur). Two come bets with odds seems like the right amount -- enough action to keep things interesting, and just little enough on the table to ease the sting of a seven out. (I could be convinced that one come bet is sufficient, as well.) What do people think?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
August 18th, 2010 at 9:32:27 PM
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I had to vote against your resolution because I find your strategy too boring. I find that an hour or maybe 2 on a good day is the most I can stand at 1 session of craps. I will return to the table several times during the day though. I much prefer to get my money in play over a relatively short time and either win big or leave the table. I still only play the pass, come and place 6 and 8. So my variance is more but we basically have the same EV.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
August 18th, 2010 at 11:46:14 PM
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That's actually usually my strategy, but sometimes I will spend a few shooters playing just the six and eight and pressing once or twice.
August 19th, 2010 at 12:06:53 AM
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I love the come bet, and the come bet progression.
There were times I had Five come points plus the pass line, and I was "Off-and-on"-ing every point hit during a huge roll, pressing odds. No different than pressing place bets really, but the come points follow the flow of the dice on repeating numbers.
I feel it is a "stylistic" difference in play between having a handful of Come points up, and pressing up your place bets. Each works better on different rolLs - BUT THE HOUSE EDGE IS BETTER WITH COME BETS AND HAVING COME POINTS ACTIVE.
There were times I had Five come points plus the pass line, and I was "Off-and-on"-ing every point hit during a huge roll, pressing odds. No different than pressing place bets really, but the come points follow the flow of the dice on repeating numbers.
I feel it is a "stylistic" difference in play between having a handful of Come points up, and pressing up your place bets. Each works better on different rolLs - BUT THE HOUSE EDGE IS BETTER WITH COME BETS AND HAVING COME POINTS ACTIVE.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
August 19th, 2010 at 1:33:20 AM
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Quote: teddys
RESOLVED: The best craps strategy is pass line with odds, followed by two (or one) come bets with odds.
If you are going to play, the best strategy is the one that limits your losses and keeps the action interesting.
Having too many come bets out lessens the fun of the game. You are constantly stressing over the seven when you have a lot of bets out, and are always waiting for the big roll to make a lot of money; otherwise, you are bleeding chips.
Yes, I once "was all over the place" as the dealer commented due to my constant come bets with odds ... and then that Seven rolled and I lost it ALL.
Best system?
That Elliot article considers:
Pass w/ Full Double Odds
Simultaneous PassLine/DontPassLine w/ Full Double Odds on the PassLine bet.
Hoyle's Press: Switch between Right and Wrong betting on win or 3 losses. Bet Progression.
Ponzer: PassLine w/ two ComeBets. All with full double odds.
D'Alembert: PassLine w/ betting progression
Contra-D'Alembert: If win increase PassLine bet by one unit.
Martingale: Double Up To Catch Up: Doubles a bet on each loss.
Anti-Martingale: Double bet on a win, start over on a loss.
Oscar: Endless flat betting.
Five Count: Do/Dont Straddle for four numbers. Betting progression restarted on each Seven.
Patrick Basic Right System: PassLine plus Place the 6/8.
31 System: Betting progression based on nine plateaus.
Don'tPass/Place System: DontPass, Place The Point, DontCome
Rec. Gambling Place-Lay system: Place Inside Numbers with a NOFour lay bet of 50.
Since I subscribe to the Wizard's Commandment of Thou Shalt Not Hedge Thy Bets, I won't include any discussion of these simultaneous Do/Dont straddles that are attempts to catch trends.
Ken Elliot's article sets forth on a few categories for these systems:
Negative Skew: Increase bets on a loss, many small wins.
Positive Skew: Many small losses. Hope for big win.
Normal: No bet progression, no hedging.
I have a personal bias towards flat betting systems or atleast simple progression systems since I just can't do simple math even while sober, much less after a few free drinks.
The key analysis point seems to be his table of Standard Deviation of Final Bankroll, but I question whether even the 800 rolls simulation is a sufficient determination. Ofcourse, perhaps the 100 roll simulation is more realistic of any one gambler's sessions.
So my verdict is. Best is DontPass with Two Don't Come Bets w/ odds.
August 19th, 2010 at 6:10:37 AM
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I had to finally vote against, just from the idea that there can't be just one best way to play. It's close, though.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 19th, 2010 at 6:16:28 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI had to finally vote against, just from the idea that there can't be just one best way to play. It's close, though.
+1.
This is only the best strategy if all people share the same goal. This would fry tuttigym, for example.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 19th, 2010 at 8:54:19 AM
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Voted against.
Craps is one the few table games that allows you to play so many different ways.
No strategy is better than the other, because you can create winning / losing situations for every strategy.
Ultimately, the best craps strategy is the one you enjoy the most.
As of this moment, my own variations of the "place-lay" strategy give me the most enjoyment. I NEVER play the PL/DP.
Craps is one the few table games that allows you to play so many different ways.
No strategy is better than the other, because you can create winning / losing situations for every strategy.
Ultimately, the best craps strategy is the one you enjoy the most.
As of this moment, my own variations of the "place-lay" strategy give me the most enjoyment. I NEVER play the PL/DP.
August 19th, 2010 at 9:14:39 AM
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I would say the best strategy is any mixture of don't pass and don't come bets, and always backed up laying maximum odds.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 19th, 2010 at 5:20:53 PM
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How about the Ricochet system? That's no straddle, and it's pretty strong on the don't come, considering that the hedge comes down as soon as you're up behind one or two numbers.
August 19th, 2010 at 6:33:09 PM
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The crowd has spoken, and the nays have it. I humbly withdraw my motion. However, I still think that this the the system that works the best for the most people. It is the eight-ball, add-em-up, king's pawn to e4 of craps. It is especially useful for new players. One of the reasons craps is such a great game is that the varieties are endless, but I think as a "basic strategy" pass plus two comes plus odds is the most suitable.
Edit: Hey, I agree with you. I'm a don'ts player myself some of the time. But the ethereal .05% advantage (solely obtained from pushes on the 12) is not enough to make me go against the table.
Next Wizard coffee a group should all get together, take over a table, and play the don't pass and don't come every roll laying max odds on everything.
Really? Why do you think the don't pass is better than the pass? Aren't they a wash statistically? Also, if part of the goal is to have fun and excitement while playing, you won't get that playing the wrong side when the rest of the table is playing right.Quote: WizardI would say the best strategy is any mixture of don't pass and don't come bets, and always backed up laying maximum odds.
Edit: Hey, I agree with you. I'm a don'ts player myself some of the time. But the ethereal .05% advantage (solely obtained from pushes on the 12) is not enough to make me go against the table.
Next Wizard coffee a group should all get together, take over a table, and play the don't pass and don't come every roll laying max odds on everything.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
August 19th, 2010 at 7:05:08 PM
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I response to THIS post, I decided to provide a spreadsheet of 1000 sessions of 30 pass line results.
Here's the linky to the 12MB file.
There were 14,917 pass line wins and 15,083 pass line losses. I don't believe this qualifies as statistically significant. If you know how to work a spreadsheet, you can figure it out and probably dig out more data.
Here's the linky to the 12MB file.
There were 14,917 pass line wins and 15,083 pass line losses. I don't believe this qualifies as statistically significant. If you know how to work a spreadsheet, you can figure it out and probably dig out more data.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
August 19th, 2010 at 7:43:06 PM
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Quote: teddys
Really? Why do you think the don't pass is better than the pass? Aren't they a wash statistically? Also, if part of the goal is to have fun and excitement while playing, you won't get that playing the wrong side when the rest of the table is playing right.
Please read my craps guide.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 19th, 2010 at 10:09:11 PM
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Just for giggles, I ran the simulation to 10,000 sessions of 30 pass line bets and below is the distribution of wins and losses and the number of times each happened for example, the first row shows that within the 10,000 sessions, there were 3 occurrences of 5 wins and 25 losses. Fortunata decreed that I should not have any subsets of 24 wins and 6 losses in this set.
There were also two rolls that lasted 43 throws, one made the point of 4 and the other 7'd out.
wins losses counted
5 25 3
6 24 7
7 23 22
8 22 62
9 21 148
10 20 321
11 19 587
12 18 932
13 17 1120
14 16 1376
15 15 1480
16 14 1220
17 13 1105
18 12 737
19 11 475
20 10 223
21 9 115
22 8 54
23 7 11
25 5 2
There were also two rolls that lasted 43 throws, one made the point of 4 and the other 7'd out.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
August 20th, 2010 at 5:14:49 AM
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Quote: teddysNext Wizard coffee a group should all get together, take over a table, and play the don't pass and don't come every roll laying max odds on everything.
That WOULD be pretty cool...
August 20th, 2010 at 6:47:55 AM
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Will this be at Eastside Cannery's 100x table?Quote: teddysNext Wizard coffee a group should all get together, take over a table, and play the don't pass and don't come every roll laying max odds on everything.
August 21st, 2010 at 7:35:27 AM
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Yes, in reality they are probably close to being equal. The higher bankroll needed for the Don't Side probably makes being a Right Bettor a more preferable choice even though I often do prefer the Wrong side.Quote: teddysWhy do you think the don't pass is better than the pass? Aren't they a wash statistically?
I'll try to go over that thousand examples of 30 rolls each once I've slurped some coffee. Thank you for the efforts you've expended.
As to the fun and excitement aspects:
I guess I'm just a mean spirited, evil, vile Dark Sider. I don't much care if people wander away from the table and therefore won't tip, thus dampening the enthusiasm of the crew or if those players who do remain at the table have their enthusiasm noticeably dampened by my not only being on the Dark Side but shooting from the Dark Side, its my money and my fun and my excitement that I'm interested in. And if I make my decision to be a Don't Pass player based on some lousy .05 percent or something, so what?
August 21st, 2010 at 12:16:43 PM
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I myself like to put $1 on the firebet. $5 on the don't pass with 3/4/5x odds. $6 to $12 on the six/eight, going up $6 on every win. I wouldn't say it's the best strategy, but I have fun doing it and it still beats the overall house edge of most table games plus there is a chance of a jackpot win (which I have hit once).
Play how you want to play, however realize that you should only lose what you can afford and treat gambling as a form of entertainment, not as an income.
Play how you want to play, however realize that you should only lose what you can afford and treat gambling as a form of entertainment, not as an income.
August 25th, 2010 at 10:08:47 AM
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Quote: s2dbakerJust for giggles, I ran the simulation to 10,000 sessions of 30 pass line bets and below is the distribution of wins and losses and the number of times each happened for example, the first row shows that within the 10,000 sessions, there were 3 occurrences of 5 wins and 25 losses. Fortunata decreed that I should not have any subsets of 24 wins and 6 losses in this set.
Sir;
What program did you use to run your sim? Permission requested to possibly use your results on another blog. TIA!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
August 25th, 2010 at 11:17:33 AM
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below a 10 million session run
from Rick Parris WinStats
pass line wins per 30 trials
my blog has more info
from Rick Parris WinStats
pass line wins per 30 trials
my blog has more info
group middle freq freq/100
-----------------------------------------------
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 1 0.00%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 5 0.00%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 53 0.00%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 347 0.00%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 1782 0.02%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 7034 0.07%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 23723 0.24%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 66126 0.66%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 156447 1.56%
9.50 <= x < 10.50 10.00 321158 3.21%
10.50 <= x < 11.50 11.00 566962 5.67%
11.50 <= x < 12.50 12.00 872199 8.72%
12.50 <= x < 13.50 13.00 1175959 11.76%
13.50 <= x < 14.50 14.00 1389673 13.90%
14.50 <= x < 15.50 15.00 1439319 14.39%
15.50 <= x < 16.50 16.00 1313413 13.13%
16.50 <= x < 17.50 17.00 1052348 10.52%
17.50 <= x < 18.50 18.00 739814 7.40%
18.50 <= x < 19.50 19.00 452381 4.52%
19.50 <= x < 20.50 20.00 243428 2.43%
20.50 <= x < 21.50 21.00 112932 1.13%
21.50 <= x < 22.50 22.00 44496 0.44%
22.50 <= x < 23.50 23.00 14895 0.15%
23.50 <= x < 24.50 24.00 4279 0.04%
24.50 <= x < 25.50 25.00 1020 0.01%
25.50 <= x < 26.50 26.00 188 0.00%
26.50 <= x < 27.50 27.00 14 0.00%
27.50 <= x < 28.50 28.00 4 0.00%
-----------------------------------------------
grouped data
items: 10000000
minimum value: 1.00
first quartile: 13.00
median: 15.00
third quartile: 17.00
maximum value: 28.00
mean value: 14.79
midrange: 14.50
range: 27.00
interquartile range: 4.00
mean abs deviation: 2.19
sample variance (n): 7.50
sample variance (n-1): 7.50
sample std dev (n): 2.74
sample std dev (n-1): 2.74
-----------------------------------------------
cumulative
-----------------------------------------------
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 1 0.00%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 6 0.00%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 59 0.00%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 406 0.00%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 2188 0.02%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 9222 0.09%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 32945 0.33%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 99071 0.99%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 255518 2.56%
9.50 <= x < 10.50 10.00 576676 5.77%
10.50 <= x < 11.50 11.00 1143638 11.44%
11.50 <= x < 12.50 12.00 2015837 20.16%
12.50 <= x < 13.50 13.00 3191796 31.92%
13.50 <= x < 14.50 14.00 4581469 45.81%
14.50 <= x < 15.50 15.00 6020788 60.21%
15.50 <= x < 16.50 16.00 7334201 73.34%
16.50 <= x < 17.50 17.00 8386549 83.87%
17.50 <= x < 18.50 18.00 9126363 91.26%
18.50 <= x < 19.50 19.00 9578744 95.79%
19.50 <= x < 20.50 20.00 9822172 98.22%
20.50 <= x < 21.50 21.00 9935104 99.35%
21.50 <= x < 22.50 22.00 9979600 99.80%
22.50 <= x < 23.50 23.00 9994495 99.94%
23.50 <= x < 24.50 24.00 9998774 99.99%
24.50 <= x < 25.50 25.00 9999794 100.00%
25.50 <= x < 26.50 26.00 9999982 100.00%
26.50 <= x < 27.50 27.00 9999996 100.00%
27.50 <= x < 28.50 28.00 10000000 100.00%
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 25th, 2010 at 12:24:41 PM
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Quote: teddysif part of the goal is to have fun and excitement while playing, you won't get that playing the wrong side when the rest of the table is playing right.
I get my excitement from raking in chips. It's akin to selling stocks short. Is it wrong somehow or boring to profit?
One of my favorite responses when I'm offered the dice to roll is, "Don't send the dice. Just the checks, thank you."
August 25th, 2010 at 12:28:13 PM
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Here is something that I am considering next craps session. There ARE passline trends per shooter in this game, all of us have seen this many times.
If we start at say $10 base bet on the new shooter. Then increase it by $5 units on each pass win decision AND take single odds. Example: $10 passline to start the new shooter and a 7 is rolled. Next passline bet is $15. Then a 6 point is established so $15 odds. He makes the point of 6, so pass line bet goes to $20, then the next roll is a new point of 8, then $20 odds, and so on. After the hand is over, start anew on the next shooter. The question is would it be better to take the single odds or simply bet the base pass bet with this upping by $5 units on each pass win, I would think the better most sessions would be the odds included assuming there are some points made, but then again sometimes the naturals are dominant.
If we start at say $10 base bet on the new shooter. Then increase it by $5 units on each pass win decision AND take single odds. Example: $10 passline to start the new shooter and a 7 is rolled. Next passline bet is $15. Then a 6 point is established so $15 odds. He makes the point of 6, so pass line bet goes to $20, then the next roll is a new point of 8, then $20 odds, and so on. After the hand is over, start anew on the next shooter. The question is would it be better to take the single odds or simply bet the base pass bet with this upping by $5 units on each pass win, I would think the better most sessions would be the odds included assuming there are some points made, but then again sometimes the naturals are dominant.
August 25th, 2010 at 3:35:43 PM
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i usually play at Suncoast in Las Vegas. its a $3 table with 5x odds. what i do is continuously make passline and come bets at $3 and 5x odds ($16 on 5 and 9). if i have 5, 6, and 9 or 5, 8, and 9 established as points, ill place either the 8 or 6 for $18. if i have 5 out of the 6 numbers established except for a 4, 6, 8, or T, ill either buy the last number if its a 4 or T for $25 or place the last number if its a 6 or 8 for $18. then i start increasing my come/passline wager by a $1 for each hit. so if a number has $3 for its flatbet and i hit it, ill make a $4 wager on the come/passline. if i hit a number that has $4 as its flatbet, ill then make a $5 come/passline wager. depending on if i have hit any points yet, i may not place/buy the last number or start increasing my flatbets by a $1 each hit. but thats basically how i play and im always taking max odds.
August 25th, 2010 at 7:21:43 PM
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It is a simple progression system. You won't gain or lose anymore than you would by any other method in the long run, just make your winning sessions larger and less frequent. The best method empirically would be to press your odds every time the shooter makes a point. But it is not a terrible second option to press the line bet as well to take advantage of the naturals. It can be fun when a shooter goes on a seven-eleven streak. But you'll lose more in the long run than just by pressing the odds.Quote: dwmHere is something that I am considering next craps session. There ARE passline trends per shooter in this game, all of us have seen this many times.
You are an action junkie! To be honest, I might play the same way as you if I had access to low limits. But probably not. I just don't get the appeal of having every number covered. Just too much variance for me. I like having two or three point numbers working just to have the 'odds with me' -- i.e., it's more likely I'll hit a point than a seven. What appeals to you the most about your style of play?Quote: rudeboyoii usually play at Suncoast in Las Vegas. its a $3 table with 5x odds. what i do is continuously make passline and come bets at $3 and 5x odds ($16 on 5 and 9). if i have 5, 6, and 9 or 5, 8, and 9 established as points, ill place either the 8 or 6 for $18. if i have 5 out of the 6 numbers established except for a 4, 6, 8, or T, ill either buy the last number if its a 4 or T for $25 or place the last number if its a 6 or 8 for $18. then i start increasing my come/passline wager by a $1 for each hit. so if a number has $3 for its flatbet and i hit it, ill make a $4 wager on the come/passline. if i hit a number that has $4 as its flatbet, ill then make a $5 come/passline wager. depending on if i have hit any points yet, i may not place/buy the last number or start increasing my flatbets by a $1 each hit. but thats basically how i play and im always taking max odds.
I've been fooling around with the $1 VegasStar digital craps recently, making come and max odds bets every roll, and just do not get that much enjoyment out of it.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
August 26th, 2010 at 10:10:38 AM
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Microsoft SQL Server 2010.Quote: DeMangoSir;
What program did you use to run your sim? Permission requested to possibly use your results on another blog. TIA!
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
