Is This a Good Craps Bet
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March 22nd, 2012 at 11:45:02 AM
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I don't play craps, know nothing about it. In looking at
the game, is betting the field and the 7 a good bet?
There are 36 possible outcomes and the field numbers
and the 7 cover 22 of them.
If 3,4,9,10,11 hit and you bet $15 on the field and
$5 on the 7, you win $10. If 2 hits you win $25, and
if 12 hits you win $40. A 7 wins $5. Does this bet at
least come close to breaking even in the long run?
the game, is betting the field and the 7 a good bet?
There are 36 possible outcomes and the field numbers
and the 7 cover 22 of them.
If 3,4,9,10,11 hit and you bet $15 on the field and
$5 on the 7, you win $10. If 2 hits you win $25, and
if 12 hits you win $40. A 7 wins $5. Does this bet at
least come close to breaking even in the long run?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:52:37 AM
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No. It sucks. Worse than Roulette.
EV = $40 x 1/36 + 25 x 1/36 + 10 x (14/36) + 5 x 6/36 - $20 x (14/36) = -$1.25 = 6.25%
Of course, if you can think you can beat roulette, then you probably think you can beat craps ;)
EV = $40 x 1/36 + 25 x 1/36 + 10 x (14/36) + 5 x 6/36 - $20 x (14/36) = -$1.25 = 6.25%
Of course, if you can think you can beat roulette, then you probably think you can beat craps ;)
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:55:15 AM
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boymimbo beat me to it but here's the breakdown:
You can see your expected loss is $1.25 per roll. Below the big table are the edges taken from Wizard of Odds - Craps. You can see the EV matches up as expected.
You can see your expected loss is $1.25 per roll. Below the big table are the edges taken from Wizard of Odds - Craps. You can see the EV matches up as expected.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:57:47 AM
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Is the -6.25 a constant no matter how you vary the bets?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:02:42 PM
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No, since the edges of each bet are different the combined edge is weighted based on how much you bet on each. It ranges from betting $0 on the Seven and $20 on field which gives an edge of -2.78% to betting $20 on the Seven and $0 on the field which gives an edge of -16.67%. No matter how you vary the bets your edge will never be better than -2.78% or worse than 16.67%. This assumes they triple the 12 in the field.
EDIT: If you were to bet evenly on both then:
Field $10 * 2.78% = $0.28 EV
Seven $10 * 16.67% = $1.67 EV
Combined EV: $1.95
Combined Edge: 9.73%
EDIT: If you were to bet evenly on both then:
Field $10 * 2.78% = $0.28 EV
Seven $10 * 16.67% = $1.67 EV
Combined EV: $1.95
Combined Edge: 9.73%
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:07:44 PM
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Is there a combination of field and 7 thats
between -3% and -4%?
between -3% and -4%?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:12:47 PM
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$10 on the field, $1 on the seven is ~4%, but seems daft as the seven is a loss still.
The any seven is a lousy bet. It should pay 11/2 if you ask me. Which you didn't... :)
The any seven is a lousy bet. It should pay 11/2 if you ask me. Which you didn't... :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:18:22 PM
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Bob, just figure any combination of negative expectation bets is just going to suck, in any game.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:25:30 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitBob, just figure any combination of negative expectation bets is just going to suck, in any game.
Some are worse than others.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:27:35 PM
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Quote: EvenBobSome are worse than others.
Any seven being a poster child for that.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:26:26 PM
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Please go and read every post in the craps sub-forum.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:30:50 PM
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As an aside, have I made a mistake or is hopping the seven at 15:1 actually worse than taking any 7 at 4:1? I calculate it as a -33% bet ( a 3-4 hopping is -11%). But I feel like I have made an error in mah sums.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
March 22nd, 2012 at 5:35:31 PM
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Hopping a 7 is betting than big red.
$3 hop seven pays $13 6/36 of the time and loses 30/36 of the time (-3)
-3 x 30/36 + 13 x 6/36 = -12/36 / 3 = 11.11%.
There really isn't a bet that would let you combine the 7 with the field and has have a net win (ie a hedge) with a 7 and the field that would yield you 4%.
The field bet with triple on a 12 only has a house edge similar to single zero roulette.
$3 hop seven pays $13 6/36 of the time and loses 30/36 of the time (-3)
-3 x 30/36 + 13 x 6/36 = -12/36 / 3 = 11.11%.
There really isn't a bet that would let you combine the 7 with the field and has have a net win (ie a hedge) with a 7 and the field that would yield you 4%.
The field bet with triple on a 12 only has a house edge similar to single zero roulette.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
March 22nd, 2012 at 6:10:04 PM
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If you bet $20 on the field and $5 on the
7, the 7 would be nullified. Whats the HE?
7, the 7 would be nullified. Whats the HE?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 6:36:08 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIf you bet $20 on the field and $5 on the
7, the 7 would be nullified. Whats the HE?
If you're asking where the house edge comes from, it's those 14 times in 36 that the 5, 6, or 8 comes up. You lose $25 each of those times.
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:05:37 PM
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Quote: DocIf you're asking where the house edge comes from, it's those 14 times in 36 that the 5, 6, or 8 comes up. You lose $25 each of those times.
Is the HE better than the -6.25 of the other bet?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:18:33 PM
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Bob:
Let x be the field bet that pays 3:1 on the 12, 2:1 on the 2, and even on the 3, 4, 9, 10, 11.
Let y be the any seven bet, that pays 4:1
EV = -(x+y)*14/36+(4y-x)*6/36 + (3x-y)*1/36 + (2x-y)*1/36 + (x-y)*14/36
= (-14x - 14y + 24y - 6x +3x - y +2x - y + 14x - 14y)/36
= (-x - 6y)/36
Total Bet = x + y
HA = EV / Total Bet = (-x - 6y)/36(x+y)
So, Bob:
$20 on Field and $5 on 7 yields:
EV = (-20 - 6*5)/36 = -50 / 36 = -$1.38889
HA = -$1.388889 / (20 + 5) = 5.556%.
Let x be the field bet that pays 3:1 on the 12, 2:1 on the 2, and even on the 3, 4, 9, 10, 11.
Let y be the any seven bet, that pays 4:1
EV = -(x+y)*14/36+(4y-x)*6/36 + (3x-y)*1/36 + (2x-y)*1/36 + (x-y)*14/36
= (-14x - 14y + 24y - 6x +3x - y +2x - y + 14x - 14y)/36
= (-x - 6y)/36
Total Bet = x + y
HA = EV / Total Bet = (-x - 6y)/36(x+y)
So, Bob:
$20 on Field and $5 on 7 yields:
EV = (-20 - 6*5)/36 = -50 / 36 = -$1.38889
HA = -$1.388889 / (20 + 5) = 5.556%.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:44:57 PM
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Quote: boymimbo$20 on Field and $5 on 7 yields:
EV = (-20 - 6*5)/36 = -50 / 36 = -$1.38889
HA = -$1.388889 / (20 + 5) = 5.556%.
Thanks a lot.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 8:33:16 PM
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Place and Buy bets are exactly the same thing, but with different odds. Here is the better bet, according to the number bet on:
6 and 8: Place bet always better.
5 and 9: Place bet always better, unless commission on Buy is on win only.
4 and 10: Buy bet always better.
A field bet is only slightly worse than single zero roulette. So if you want to make eve money bets, then play the field in craps over red/black or odd/even in roulette. If you want a jackpot, then play roulette over boxcars or snake eyes in craps.
If you want a lot of action and variance, while keeping a low expected loss, just make lots of pass line and come bets and load up on free odds.
6 and 8: Place bet always better.
5 and 9: Place bet always better, unless commission on Buy is on win only.
4 and 10: Buy bet always better.
A field bet is only slightly worse than single zero roulette. So if you want to make eve money bets, then play the field in craps over red/black or odd/even in roulette. If you want a jackpot, then play roulette over boxcars or snake eyes in craps.
If you want a lot of action and variance, while keeping a low expected loss, just make lots of pass line and come bets and load up on free odds.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:35:29 PM
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EvenBob, I made you a spreadsheet where you can plug in your own values and see your EV in dollars and percent. You can find it here on Google Docs. Just plug your bets into the beige areas.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:58:53 PM
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Wow, thats fantastic. Thanks.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:37:16 PM
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Quote: boymimboHopping a 7 is betting than big red.
$3 hop seven pays $13 6/36 of the time and loses 30/36 of the time (-3)
-3 x 30/36 + 13 x 6/36 = -12/36 / 3 = 11.11%.
There really isn't a bet that would let you combine the 7 with the field and has have a net win (ie a hedge) with a 7 and the field that would yield you 4%.
The field bet with triple on a 12 only has a house edge similar to single zero roulette.
Thanks, I thought the answer should be -11.11%, but kept getting -33.333%, but that's because I wasn't dividing by the total bet. Duh.
---- So hopping the 7 (a one roll bet on a 7 any of the three ways it can come up, pays 15:1 on each combination for a 7) for $3 and $17 on the field would give an edge of -4%, where a 7 results in $4 loss, a 5/6/8 an $20 loss, 3,4,9,10,11 a $14 win, 2 $31 win and 12 $48 win.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
