Las Vegas challenge, looking for input

Scenario- an individual has a finite amount of time (let's start with 30 hours) and a finite amount of money (let's say $1,000). The individual must win $100 in each casino from Mandalay bay to Circus Circus (both sides of the street, roughly 30 casinos, with Slots o Fun omitted). The individual can play any game of his choosing but the constraints are clear-
-$100 must be won in each casino (not averaged out)
-The challenge must be completed within the allotted time
-The challenger can only have the original bankroll to complete the bet (plus a small allotment for food during the challenge)
-The challenger must walk the entire route. No other forms of transportation can be used.

My questions to you are:
-What are the actual odds of something like this succeeding?
-At what price do you believe would the challenger get action?
-Given the perammeters, are the logistics of this challenge even possible?

The perammeters of this challenge are not set in stone, as there seem to be quite a bit of variables to consider. Things such as finding an open table during peak hours, navigating the strip, waiting in line at the cage, etc.

I am looking forward to some feedback on this one. Thanks!

I'm thinking this is almost impossible.

If a participant wins $10,000 at Mandalay Bay, does that mean they have $11,000 to use toward the remaining 29 casinos, or are they limited to the $1,000 cap?

Aside from having to allow escalators and elevators, it seems do able.
You would have to distinguish between win and net win at each casino. And whether balances transferred between casinos. Particularly if it was a pouring rain you might have to allow for trips next door to take priority over a trip across LV Blvd in heavy traffic with some cops right there.

Quote: Ayecarumba

If a participant wins $10,000 at Mandalay Bay, does that mean they have $11,000 to use toward the remaining 29 casinos, or are they limited to the $1,000 cap?

The bankroll can grow past the initial $1,000 and is limited only by what the individual can win in the casino. Using your example, yes, the individual will have $11,000 to work with for the remaining portion of the challenge.

If my bank roll must grow by $100 before I leave the casino, I don't see this as very likely. I don't think time is the constraint here. I think bankroll and probability of winning every is.

30 casinos at $100 at each - $3000 day.

Lets say (for instance) we do a single bet of $100 at the first place. Place $100 on pass line at craps. You are 244 to 251 to win $100 (49.3%). But we can (I'm ducking) Martingale a loss and bet $200 then $400.

Chance of a win : 87%. Call it 90% as there's a small chance that we can win back our stakes with the $300 we'll be left with.

This is going to be our chance at completing the first 5 casinos, give or take, which leaves us a 59% chance of making through 5. Good news when we get to the 6th, we have a $1500 bankroll, so we can martingale 4 times now : 93.3% chance of winning $100.

If we can get through the next 16 joints, we'll have $3100 bank roll, and get to 5 level Martingale : 96.7% chance at each casino for the last 9.

So our odds are roughly (rounding up for the chances when the martingale flames out we parlay our small bankroll back up again) :

0.9^5 * 0.94^16 * 0.97 ^ 9 = 0.59 * 0.372 * 0.760 = 0.167 or 1 in 6.

Higher than I would have guessed.

I don't think it's realistic as written. I'm not going to crunch the numbers, but even with the lowest house edge games out there, I think the starting bankroll is way to low to give the runners a fighting chance at 30 casinos.

Tweak the numbers a bit and it could be fun. I definitely enjoy stuff like this, and the running around part of it actually sounds like a lot of fun. Let us know if you hold said contest :).

Quote: GoodEyeMight

The bankroll can grow past the initial $1,000 and is limited only by what the individual can win in the casino. Using your example, yes, the individual will have $11,000 to work with for the remaining portion of the challenge.

Then given cesspit's Martingale strategy, I think it is doable. 30 casinos in 30 hours is plenty of time for an able bodied individual.

I think you should add a one drink minimum from each casino to the challenge for some real fun.

Sounds like fun except for all the walking (especially the trek from T.I. to Circus Circus; such a long walk with no action). I'd opt for a bus pass and ride the Deuce a few select times.

Anyone have a guess about the total walking distance? Including the walk from the street into the various casinos and back to the street.

Quote: GoodEyeMight

Scenario- an individual has a finite amount of time (let's start with 30 hours) and a finite amount of money (let's say $1,000). The individual must win $100 in each casino from Mandalay bay to Circus Circus (both sides of the street, roughly 30 casinos, with Slots o Fun omitted). The individual can play any game of his choosing but the constraints are clear-
-$100 must be won in each casino (not averaged out)
-The challenge must be completed within the allotted time
-The challenger can only have the original bankroll to complete the bet (plus a small allotment for food during the challenge)
-The challenger must walk the entire route. No other forms of transportation can be used.

My questions to you are:
-What are the actual odds of something like this succeeding?
-At what price do you believe would the challenger get action?
-Given the perammeters, are the logistics of this challenge even possible?

The perammeters of this challenge are not set in stone, as there seem to be quite a bit of variables to consider. Things such as finding an open table during peak hours, navigating the strip, waiting in line at the cage, etc.

I am looking forward to some feedback on this one. Thanks!

The Thirty(one)?:
Mandalay Bay
Luxor
Excalibur
Tropicana
**Hooter's?
New York New York
MGM Grand
Monte Carlo
Aria
Cosmopolitan
Bellagio
Planet Hollywood
Paris
Bally's
Bill's
Flamingo
**O'Sheas?
**Margaritaville?
**Casuarina?
Imperial Palace
Caesars
Harrah's
Casino Royale
Mirage
Venetian
Palazzo
TI
Wynn
Encore
Riviera
Circus Circus

**Should these places be considered separate? If not, could the same argument be made to consider Wynn and Encore, or Venetian and Palazzo as single entities?

I think you should consider Encore and Palazzo as separate entities, but not Casuarina or Hooters since they are not on the Strip.

I've walked it before. I think the best place to start is TI, then walk down to Mandalay, take the tram back up to Excalibur and cross to Tropicana, then work your way up to Wynn, and finally Circus.

Impossible.

Quote: FleaStiff

Aside from having to allow escalators and elevators, it seems do able.
You would have to distinguish between win and net win at each casino. And whether balances transferred between casinos. Particularly if it was a pouring rain you might have to allow for trips next door to take priority over a trip across LV Blvd in heavy traffic with some cops right there.

The wager would consist of a net win of $100 at each casino. As for transportation, the only allowable conveyances would be elevators, escalators and moving walkways (glad you mentioned this, as it was an oversight on my part). As for balances transferring between casinos, with each win the bankroll would grow by whatever each particular win consisted of. For example if the individual won $150 at Caesars, he could walk into Bellagio with $1150 as the new bankroll, but could not leave Bellagio until the bankroll totalled $1250. Make sense?

As for the weather, it would be just another variable that the individual will have to allow for.

Quote: thecesspit

If my bank roll must grow by $100 before I leave the casino, I don't see this as very likely. I don't think time is the constraint here. I think bankroll and probability of winning every is.

30 casinos at $100 at each - $3000 day.

Lets say (for instance) we do a single bet of $100 at the first place. Place $100 on pass line at craps. You are 244 to 251 to win $100 (49.3%). But we can (I'm ducking) Martingale a loss and bet $200 then $400.

Chance of a win : 87%. Call it 90% as there's a small chance that we can win back our stakes with the $300 we'll be left with.

This is going to be our chance at completing the first 5 casinos, give or take, which leaves us a 59% chance of making through 5. Good news when we get to the 6th, we have a $1500 bankroll, so we can martingale 4 times now : 93.3% chance of winning $100.

If we can get through the next 16 joints, we'll have $3100 bank roll, and get to 5 level Martingale : 96.7% chance at each casino for the last 9.

So our odds are roughly (rounding up for the chances when the martingale flames out we parlay our small bankroll back up again) :

0.9^5 * 0.94^16 * 0.97 ^ 9 = 0.59 * 0.372 * 0.760 = 0.167 or 1 in 6.

Higher than I would have guessed.

I don't understand. Are you saying that the odds are 1 in 6 for the wager as a whole?

Quote: AcesAndEights

I don't think it's realistic as written. I'm not going to crunch the numbers, but even with the lowest house edge games out there, I think the starting bankroll is way to low to give the runners a fighting chance at 30 casinos.

Tweak the numbers a bit and it could be fun. I definitely enjoy stuff like this, and the running around part of it actually sounds like a lot of fun. Let us know if you hold said contest :).

There's a real possibility.

Quote: MakingBook

Sounds like fun except for all the walking (especially the trek from T.I. to Circus Circus; such a long walk with no action). I'd opt for a bus pass and ride the Deuce a few select times.

Anyone have a guess about the total walking distance? Including the walk from the street into the various casinos and back to the street.

Google maps says from Mandalay Bay to Circus Circus, back to Trop can be walked in 2 hours and 17 minutes via the strip, for a total of 6.6 miles. I don't imagine this estimate takes into account traffic, crowds or walking through each casino on the route.

I have a hard time winning $100 in one casino!

Quote: Ayecarumba

The Thirty
Mandalay Bay
Luxor
Excalibur
Tropicana
New York New York
MGM Grand
Monte Carlo
Aria
Cosmopolitan
Bellagio
Planet Hollywood
Paris
Bally's
Bill's
Flamingo
O'Sheas
Margaritaville
Imperial Palace
Caesars
Harrah's
Casino Royale
Mirage
Venetian
Palazzo
TI
Wynn
Encore
Riviera
Circus Circus
Stratosphere

This is the list for the 30 (29) casinos. Stratosphere's place on this list is unclear. This list is each casino on Las Vegas Boulevard with its own table games pit (No Slots O Fun). Each casino is considered separate for the sake of the wager.

Here's more crap to consider...

I ran a few modified test runs on a smaller scale. On a weeknight it took me 4 hours to get from Margaritaville to MGM with a $100 bankroll trying to win $10 in each casino. I was successful a couple of times and failed a couple of times. My biggest obstacle was busy tables, as even during the week casinos are moderately busy. Even the higher limit tables were getting some decent play. Once I got to Paris, PH and MGM I noticed that table space on games like BJ, roulette, bac and craps was practically non existent at the table minimums and still busy on $25 tables. At the MGM specifically the tables were jam packed. Tropicana had $10 minimum BJ tables and $100 minimum BJ tables- nothing in between! I asked a floor supervisor in the pit about the availability of a $25 min table and was directed to the high limit pit, only to be told by the high limit floor that if I wanted quarter BJ I needed to go to the pit, as they wouldn't accommodate my request (not surprised).

In talking this over with people, the general consensus seems to be that the likelihood of this endeavor being successful is slim. That being said, there were no shortage of people who were willing to wager at even money against the runner, but conversations stall at negotiating an equitable price (odds/lay) to both parties.

Under the initial proposed bet, the runner would supply said bankroll, which is at risk in addition to any/all action he takes on the wager.

This "challenge" sounds like a lot of fun, reminds me of a pub crawl kind of thing. Unfortunately, the gambling part of it simply comes down to a Martingale strategy being successful 30 times in a row. This feat can be done, but as anyone who reads this forum knows... betting systems never work in the long run. It's simply a matter of whether you can make it last for 30 sequences or not. Best of luck if you do attempt this. The lowest possible finishing balance to complete this is $4000, so you would need to do quite well to have a 400% win.

Assuming the time is not a problem for you, I would say your chance for success is around 20%. I once won at all (there were only 7) Atlantic City casinos in a day. After I won at the first 3 it became a goal to win at the rest. I won 1 'unit' at the last 3. My total win after I plundered AC was $99. Back then there was $2 and $3 BJ weekday mornings.
If you take this challenge, there is about an 11% chance you last just a few minutes at the first casino. What will you do if you zero out that quickly? I think it would be quite disheartening to have planned this whole thing and just roll the dice for 5 minutes....

Quote: GoodEyeMight

I don't understand. Are you saying that the odds are 1 in 6 for the wager as a whole?

Given my assumptions, yes, about a one in six chance, based purely on the play. Im assuming the walk itself is not a factor. If it is, its smaller than one in six.

I like the idea, but I'd make the $100 amount less, let's say $25 or $50, but the person has to play a different game at each casino. Blackjack, and Blackjack Switch would be different, but Pai Gow and EZ Pai Gow would be considered the same. That would be more exciting than just having the guy Martingale on Craps or Baccarat everywhere he goes.

Quote: GoodEyeMight

I am looking forward to some feedback on this one. Thanks!

You might make this a competitive challenge: One Side of the Strip versus the other. Or Slots versus Table Games or something.

You might make this the way you initially thought but make the choice of game more limited.

You might want to arrange with each casino a specific table since you could easily acquire a horde of happy hangers-on who drunkenly follow the progress and cheer wildly at the finish line.

Good luck.

I think you could even change the bet to total win amount but one unit or other lower dollar amount must be won at each casino on the list. This way you have to go to each casino but not worry about the full 100 at each.

Quote: FinsRule

I like the idea, but I'd make the $100 amount less, let's say $25 or $50, but the person has to play a different game at each casino. Blackjack, and Blackjack Switch would be different, but Pai Gow and EZ Pai Gow would be considered the same. That would be more exciting than just having the guy Martingale on Craps or Baccarat everywhere he goes.

Is there 30 games? I'd probably not just play Craps if I was trying this, but used it as quick example. Any game with a low edge and 50/50 bet would work (Blackjack isn't so good as it's edge requires various doubledowns and splits). Pai Gow, Baccarat could also be used. I don't know, but even some VP might give you a good enough chance of leaving up once you got the bankroll a bit higher to be able to be playing $100 spins.

Sportsbook
Racebook
7-14-21 (Just because we seem to discuss it often)
Bac
Big Six
BJ
BJ Switch
Caribbean
Casino War
Craps
Crazy 4 Poker
Keno?
Sigma Derby!
Four Card Poker
Let it Ride
Mississippi Stud
Pai Gow Poker
Pai Gow Tiles
Asia / Pyramid Poker (One of them is probably still somewhere)
Roulette
Sic Bo
Slot Machines
Spanish 21
Texas Hold Em
Texas Hold Em Bonus
Three Card Poker
Ultimate Hold Em
Video Poker
WPT All in Hold Em
Any game not listed

My apologies if I missed anything substantial

Any game not listed could be substituted for a listed game