Disagree?
number(s) with 3 hits on it. Anyone disagree?
Ken
At least one number with at least three hits? Much longer odds, but it may be near or even exceed 50%.
I gotta run those numbers.....
on the head....a number(s) with 4 hits or 5 hits also counts.
Ken
"At least two numbers with at least two hits is VERY likely, although not guaranteed" >>> Not guaranteed? You would put your name on the line, two numbers NOT having 2 hits on it?
Ken
Quote: mrjjjAnyone who disagrees with this, please chime in >> Within 37/38 spins (most likely less than that) we will have
number(s) with 3 hits on it. Anyone disagree?
Ken
Re ask- state whether it is a 37 or 38 spot wheel, then someone will be able to give you an exact answer, but alas, not me....
I'll guess 65% of the time you'll get one number at least hitting 3 times in 37 spins on a 38 spot wheel.
Um, how are the two phrases in yellow any different? Do you know what the phrase "at least" means?Quote: mrjjj"At least one number with at least three hits? Much longer odds" >>> What?? I should add, it does not have to be 3 hits
on the head....a number(s) with 4 hits or 5 hits also counts.
Ken
Why, do you think that such a random outcome IS guaranteed?Quote: mrjjj"At least two numbers with at least two hits is VERY likely, although not guaranteed" >>> Not guaranteed? You would put your name on the line, two numbers NOT having 2 hits on it?
Ken
I think it's safe to assume that mrjjj is saying 37 spins on a single zero wheel, or 38 spins on a double zero rule.Quote: SOOPOORe ask- state whether it is a 37 or 38 spot wheel, then someone will be able to give you an exact answer, but alas, not me....
I'll guess 65% of the time you'll get one number at least hitting 3 times in 37 spins on a 38 spot wheel.
Edit: Doing a combinatorial analysis, I get 1.437% for a double 0 wheel and 1.618% for a single 0 wheel. So at least one number has 3 or more hits in 38 spins of a double 0 wheel 98.563% of the time. And at least one number has 3 or more hits in 37 spins of a single 0 wheel 98.382% of the time.
Quote: DJTeddyBearUm, how are the two phrases in yellow any different? Do you know what the phrase "at least" means?Quote: mrjjj"At least one number with at least three hits? Much longer odds" >>> What?? I should add, it does not have to be 3 hits
on the head....a number(s) with 4 hits or 5 hits also counts.
Ken
Are you pulling the ole'...I'll mess with the author so I dont have to get involved BS? (lol) A number with 3 OR MORE hits. Dont make it tougher than it needs to be. I did not want someone to confuse......if a number has 4 hits, well thats not 3.
3 OR MORE hits.
Ken
Quote: ChesterDogI did a rough simulation for a double 0 wheel. I found that for 38 spins, sometimes no number had 3 or more hits, but this happened only 1.46% of the time. So at least one number had 3 or more hits 98.54% of the time.
ChesterDog seemed to understand 'or more hits' just fine. 98.54%? Thank you, sounds good. I appreciate your time.
Ken
Quote: DJTeddyBearWhy, do you think that such a random outcome IS guaranteed?
I love the anti-method crew.
Such wording as.....random outcome.
'Guaranteed', with a question mark.
98.54% sounds damn good to me.
I brought up a subject (at another board) regarding, what guarantees (as close as possible) a person could count on in roulette? A number(s) with 3 hits in 37/38 spins comes to mind. If you say no way, thats fine, I'll just re-word the question to 45 spins. I actually guessed it at 99%, so I was .46% off, not bad.
Ken
No. I'm trying to figure out just how much of an idiot you are.Quote: mrjjjQuote: DJTeddyBearUm, how are the two phrases in yellow any different? Do you know what the phrase "at least" means?Quote: mrjjj"At least one number with at least three hits? Much longer odds" >>> What?? I should add, it does not have to be 3 hits
on the head....a number(s) with 4 hits or 5 hits also counts.
Ken
Are you pulling the ole'...I'll mess with the author so I dont have to get involved BS? (lol) A number with 3 OR MORE hits. Dont make it tougher than it needs to be. I did not want someone to confuse......if a number has 4 hits, well thats not 3.
3 OR MORE hits.
Ken
Ask a question to a question, throw around insults, was there a misspelled word? etc. (lol)
Ken
European Wheel
The average stats are
Total hit = 23.57 comprising -
13.43 x 1
13.80 x 2
6.90 x 3
2.24 x 4
0.53 x 5
0.10 x 6
Quote: victorimmatureThis has been covered before
European Wheel
The average stats are
Total hit = 23.57 comprising -
13.43 x 1
13.80 x 2
6.90 x 3
2.24 x 4
0.53 x 5
0.10 x 6
I'm trying to accomplish two things with this thread. One of the items is completely off the radar to almost everyone here, so lets skip that part. Help me out here......so (on average) 13.8 numbers will have 2 hits?....or 13.8% of the time, there will be one number with 2 hits?
Ken
Let me try interpreting because even though I can't hope to hold a candle to Ken's brilliance, I think i may actually know what he's attempting to ask.Quote: mrjjjAnyone who disagrees with this, please chime in >> Within 37/38 spins (most likely less than that) we will have
number(s) with 3 hits on it. Anyone disagree?
Ken
Quote: Sober KenHow many spins of a single zero roulette wheel will it take for any one number to appear three times with 99% certainty? If it is not 37 or 38 spins then you may disagree with me and I would like to hear your reasoning.
Quote: s2dbakerLet me try interpreting because even though I can't hope to hold a candle to Ken's brilliance, I think i may actually know what he's attempting to ask.
Quote: Sober KenHow many spins of a single zero roulette wheel will it take for any one number to appear three times with 99% certainty? If it is not 37 or 38 spins then you may disagree with me and I would like to hear your reasoning.
I'm giving you a choice of the 0 or 00 wheel, it makes little difference to me. "How many spins?" No, (OMG) at the end of 37 spins, ON AVERAGE, how many numbers will have 3 OR MORE hits? WTF?
Ken
Quote: mrjjjI'm trying to accomplish two things with this thread. One of the items is completely off the radar to almost everyone here, so lets skip that part. Help me out here......so (on average) 13.8 numbers will have 2 hits?....or 13.8% of the time, there will be one number with 2 hits?
Ken
Numbers.
Ken
Quote: victorimmatureNumbers.
Ok, thank you sir!! 13.8 numbers will have 2 hits.
Ken
Are you suggesting that Roulette results aren't random?Quote: mrjjjSuch wording as.....random outcome.
The chance that a string of 37 (or 38) outcomes all being unique is possible, although highly unlikely. But I got the feeling that you think it's not possible. If that assessment is correct, it means you think getting at least one repeat is guaranteed.Quote: mrjjj'Guaranteed', with a question mark.
So I asked you why you thought that such an outcome is guaranteed.
And because I phrased it as a question, I put a question mark at the end.
That's why you see the word "guaranteed" followed by a question mark - because I was asking a question.
Okay, my interpreting skills may be a little rusty but I think I have it this time. Let me try again.Quote: mrjjjI'm giving you a choice of the 0 or 00 wheel, it makes little difference to me. "How many spins?" No, (OMG) at the end of 37 spins, ON AVERAGE, how many numbers will have 3 OR MORE hits? WTF?
Ken
Quote: Ken on RitalinI think that the number of zeroes on the roulette wheel makes little difference. However, since a double zero wheel is more common, let's assume that we are using a roulette wheel with a zero and a double zero. How many numbers ON AVERAGE will appear three or more times after 37 spins? I'll emphasize that I'm speaking statistically with the use of CAPITAL LETTERS. I will now add internet acronyms. LOL WTF ROFLOPTOCOPTER/
The stats (as I read it) says that at least one number with 3 hits is 98.54% and ON AVERAGE, 6.90 numbers will have three hits within a 37 (or 38) spin cycle.
Soooo, we're going to argue about what next? Which is more pretty.....blue or red? (lol)
Ken
Quote: s2dbakerOkay, my interpreting skills may be a little rusty but I think I have it this time. Let me try again.
Quote: Ken on RitalinI think that the number of zeroes on the roulette wheel makes little difference. However, since a double zero wheel is more common, let's assume that we are using a roulette wheel with a zero and a double zero. How many numbers ON AVERAGE will appear three or more times after 37 spins? I'll emphasize that I'm speaking statistically with the use of CAPITAL LETTERS. I will now add internet acronyms. LOL WTF ROFLOPTOCOPTER/
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=2082&forum=General_Discussion
Yet another.......POST but no answer. An insult but no answer. Dont bother, it was already addressed by a POLITE, normal member. Very cool, thank you Victorimmature.
Ken
No. Apparently we're turning it into an argument about why you can't answer a simple question.Quote: mrjjjWe're now gonna turn this into an arguement over the word 'guarantee'?
Quote: DJTeddyBearNo. Apparently we're turning it into an argument about why you can't answer a simple question.
And the question is?
Ken
The stats (as I read it) says that at least one number with 3 hits is 98.54% and ON AVERAGE, 6.90 numbers will have three hits within a 37 (or 38) spin cycle.
"Are you suggesting that Roulette results aren't random?" >>> The NEXT spin? Of course its random.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjAnd the question is?
The question was posed in this post:
Quote: DJTeddyBearWhy, do you think that such a random outcome IS guaranteed?Quote: mrjjj"At least two numbers with at least two hits is VERY likely, although not guaranteed" >>> Not guaranteed? You would put your name on the line, two numbers NOT having 2 hits on it?
Ken
The response, which did not answer the question, but instead questioned my wording and punctuation, was in this post:
Quote: mrjjjI love the anti-method crew.
Such wording as.....random outcome.
'Guaranteed', with a question mark.
98.54% sounds damn good to me.
I brought up a subject (at another board) regarding, what guarantees (as close as possible) a person could count on in roulette? A number(s) with 3 hits in 37/38 spins comes to mind. If you say no way, thats fine, I'll just re-word the question to 45 spins. I actually guessed it at 99%, so I was .46% off, not bad.
Ken
Ken
Quote: mrjjj
I know *EVERY* phrase the anti-method guys want to avoid, I know *EVERY* word the anti-method guys want to avoid. So pull up your big boy pants and join the grown up table please.
Ken
Do you think it's possible for there ever to have a series of 37 consecutive spins of a single zero wheel, or 38 consecutive spins of a double zero wheel, to have no repeats?
<clue: the answer is "yes">Quote: DJTeddyBearYou STILL didn't answer my question, so I'll re-phrase it.
Do you think it's possible for there ever to have a series of 37 consecutive spins of a single zero wheel, or 38 consecutive spins of a double zero wheel, to have no repeats?
Quote: DJTeddyBearYou STILL didn't answer my question, so I'll re-phrase it.
Do you think it's possible for there ever to have a series of 37 consecutive spins of a single zero wheel, or 38 consecutive spins of a double zero wheel, to have no repeats?
You're asking one of those 'what if' questions. Is that your BAIL OUT plan? Ok, I'll play along but a question back at you as long as we are acting goofy.
Yes, its possible for no repeats (I answered)
Question for you >>> Is it 'possible' (lol) the #22 could hit 700 times in a row? (Not counting, pit would shut down the table) So, is it 'possible'?
Ken
Quote: TheNightfly<clue: the answer is "yes">
I guess the above question is for you as well.
Ken
Ken
No 'bail-out" plan. I was just wondering if you thought that was possible. For the record, this answers my original question, which was why you thought that a repeat was guaranteed. In the first few posts, you made it seem like you do think it was guaranteed. Apparently, you don't.Quote: mrjjjYou're asking one of those 'what if' questions. Is that your BAIL OUT plan? Ok, I'll play along but a question back at you as long as we are acting goofy.
Yes, its possible for no repeats (I answered)
Question for you >>> Is it 'possible' (lol) the #22 could hit 700 times in a row? (Not counting, pit would shut down the table) So, is it 'possible'?
Ken
And that's good. For the record, I agree with your presumption that there will be repeats, but also agree that a sequence with no repeats, while highly unlikely, is possible.
And that goes for #22 hitting 700 times. Highly unlikely, but possible.
And that especially goes for your caveat in parenthesis. Surely, a pit boss would shut down and tear a wheel apart to find the problem, before that reality ever came close. But just mathematical possibilities? Yeah, it's possible..
These numbers are mixed up.Quote: victorimmatureThis has been covered before
European Wheel
The average stats are
Total hit = 23.57 comprising -
13.43 x 1
13.80 x 2
6.90 x 3
2.24 x 4
0.53 x 5
0.10 x 6
Here is a pic from my Excel binomial dist table.
I have a link to this file somewhere if I can find it.
The average of 3 or more hits for Euro 37 wheel in 37 spins is 2.88
(The average of 3 or more hits for US 38 wheel in 38 spins is 2.9572)
13.80 x 0
13.43 x 1
6.90 x 2
2.24 x 3
0.53 x 4
0.10 x 5
Quote: DJTeddyBearNo 'bail-out" plan. I was just wondering if you thought that was possible. For the record, this answers my original question, which was why you thought that a repeat was guaranteed. In the first few posts, you made it seem like you do think it was guaranteed. Apparently, you don't.
And that's good. For the record, I agree with your presumption that there will be repeats, but also agree that a sequence with no repeats, while highly unlikely, is possible.
And that goes for #22 hitting 700 times. Highly unlikely, but possible.
And that especially goes for your caveat in parenthesis. Surely, a pit boss would shut down and tear a wheel apart to find the problem, before that reality ever came close. But just mathematical possibilities? Yeah, it's possible..
"while highly unlikely" >>> Why would this NOT be good enough for a bettor? I can understand if a person was using a progression and sweating it out.
Ken
Ken
In this original question, you phrased it as "we will have."Quote: mrjjjAnyone who disagrees with this, please chime in >> Within 37/38 spins (most likely less than that) we will have
number(s) with 3 hits on it. Anyone disagree?
Ken
Since other posters have done the math to show that about 10% of the time a 37 (or 38) spin sequence will have at least 1 number appear three times, I'd say the answer to your original question is "Disagree."
If you had said "we probably will have," I would still disagree.
If you had said "we possibly will have," then I'd agree.
For the record, I think betting against an event that is "highly unlikely" is a very good bet.Quote: mrjjj"while highly unlikely" >>> Why would this NOT be good enough for a bettor? I can understand if a person was using a progression and sweating it out.
Ken
Except there is no bet on roulette that covers such an outcome.
Coming up with the math to show the odds of multiple repeats is very nice, but it does nothing to help you figure out which number will be the one that repeats.
Quote: DJTeddyBearTo answer this original question, you phrased it as "we will have."
Since other posters have done the math to show that about 10% of the time a 37 (or 38) spin sequence will have at least 1 number appear three times, I'd say the answer you your question is "Disagree."
If you had said "we probably will have," I would still disagree.
If you had said "we possibly will have," then I'd agree.
Come on.....if you KNOW what I'm asking, why ACT and drag this on as if you have no idea what I mean? (thats rhetorical, I know why)
With your 'point', EVERY question you ever ask for the rest of your life should include the word 'possibly'.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjCome on.....if you KNOW what I'm asking, why ACT and drag this on as if you have no idea what I mean?
It's because the original question suggested a certainty. My "idea" was that you meant it was almost certain.
The reality is, it's a rarity - which is what I was always trying to say.
Ken
Quote: DJTeddyBearIt's because the original question suggested a certainty.
The reality is, it's a rarity.
But then EVERY QUESTION ever asked in world history (of any subject) needs to include 'possibly'. Is this how you have conversations all day? Just curious. You must be a hoot with a couple beers in you.
Ken
Quote: ChesterDogI did a rough simulation for a double 0 wheel. I found that for 38 spins, sometimes no number had 3 or more hits, but this happened only 1.46% of the time. So at least one number had 3 or more hits 98.54% of the time.
"Rough Simulation"? hehe
If one of my employees came to me with that statement and some results, (s)he would have to explain himself.
I second the stats from CDog
Here are my sim results
US wheel 38 spins 3 or more hits distribution
group middle freq freq/100
--------------------------------------------
-0.5 <= x < 0.50 0.00 14602 1.46%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 98164 9.82%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 251356 25.14%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 316240 31.62%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 215273 21.53%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 83395 8.34%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 18547 1.85%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 2278 0.23%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 139 0.01%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 6 0.00%
--------------------------------------------
grouped data
items: 1,000,000
minimum value: 0.00
first quartile: 2.00
median: 3.00
third quartile: 4.00
maximum value: 9.00
mean value: 2.96
midrange: 4.50
range: 9.00
interquartile range: 2.00
mean abs deviation: 0.95
sample variance (n): 1.53
sample variance (n-1): 1.53
sample std dev (n): 1.24
sample std dev (n-1): 1.24
--------------------------------------------
cumulative
--------------------------------------------
-0.5 <= x < 0.50 0.00 14602 1.46%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 112766 11.28%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 364122 36.41%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 680362 68.04%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 895635 89.56%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 979030 97.90%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 997577 99.76%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 999855 99.99%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 999994 100.00%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 1000000 100.00%
Euro wheel 37 spins 3 or more hits distribution
group middle freq freq/100
--------------------------------------------
-0.5 <= x < 0.50 0.00 16175 1.62%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 106642 10.66%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 264466 26.45%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 317327 31.73%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 205468 20.55%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 73571 7.36%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 14616 1.46%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 1635 0.16%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 97 0.01%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 3 0.00%
--------------------------------------------
grouped data
items: 1000000
minimum value: 0.00
first quartile: 2.00
median: 3.00
third quartile: 4.00
maximum value: 9.00
mean value: 2.88
midrange: 4.50
range: 9.00
interquartile range: 2.00
mean abs deviation: 0.96
sample variance (n): 1.48
sample variance (n-1): 1.48
sample std dev (n): 1.22
sample std dev (n-1): 1.22
--------------------------------------------
cumulative
--------------------------------------------
-0.5 <= x < 0.50 0.00 16175 1.62%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 122817 12.28%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 387283 38.73%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 704610 70.46%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 910078 91.01%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 983649 98.36%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 998265 99.83%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 999900 99.99%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 999997 100.00%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 1000000 100.00%
Ken
