Gambling for a living
Poll
 | 4 votes (9.75%) | ||
| | 3 votes (7.31%) | ||
| | 2 votes (4.87%) | ||
| | 18 votes (43.9%) | ||
| | 7 votes (17.07%) | ||
| | 2 votes (4.87%) | ||
| | 5 votes (12.19%) |
41 members have voted
A few guidelines:
1) No online gambling
2) All gambling must take place in a casino, between you and the casino (except live poker, which must be raked by a casino)
3) You can assume you have or can get a bankroll, but if you borrow for a bankroll, you must pay interest
4) You can use any method you can to play - legal or illegal - if you're willing to pay any price
So... name your poison.
Quote: kpI voted craps. Even though the pass line bet has a relative low house edge, the other bets have a much higher edge and players can't resist staying away from those high edge bets.
There has never been a professional craps player. Now I will admit a professional craps player is far more likely to exist than a professional Keno player but its still going to be a long, long wait.
Professional gamblers are those who own the casino.
So buy a fake slots place or buy a Dotty's type real slots place or something... but if you want to be a professional gambler you have to own the casino.
Quote: FleaStiffThere has never been a professional craps player.
It wouldn't take 3 standard deviations in luck for there to be one, say at 20x free odds or better. I do wonder if there is such a thing as getting backed off just for being lucky?
Quote: odiousgambitI voted for sports betting, my thinking similar to Doc's.
It wouldn't take 3 standard deviations in luck for there to be one, say at 20x free odds or better. I do wonder if there is such a thing as getting backed off just for being lucky?
Video poker, of course. All you poker aspirants would probably get eaten alive. Why do all of you refuse to accept that VP pros make a living at it? Not 7 figures exactly but neither do I. Oh well, I saved Frank the trouble.
Quote: 1BBI'd look for something with an edge so live poker would be my choice with sports betting a distant second. I've never done either and don't intend to. I have supported myself at blackjack, but if anyone wanted to do it for a living today I would do my best to talk them out of it.
If live poker has an edge, how you going to pluck the other guy that has an edge?
Quote: 1BBBe better than him? I have no idea, but I'm pretty sure I'd be a sitting duck if I tried it today.
Something with an edge, he said. I was merely pointing out that the opponents edge might be bigger than his. Everyone can't have the edge. I was just being silly. It's probably true that many people can win money from drunks and neophytes.
Quote: EricayneCraps....for sure.
For sure your going to die, then, or at least change jobs.
Quote: FleaStiffProfessional gamblers are those who own the casino.
Right. What else could we possibly be talking about?
A player might beat his drunken bar companions for a living but will he beat the bookie consistently? Everyone complains about some Pittsburg State University or Pennsylvania State University about some sort of sex scandal and they blame the coaches, not the players, so what is the point break on their next game? Do they still play football? I know there are seasons to this sort of stuff... but isn't the Football season currently in full swing or 3/4 swing or something?
Yep. Casinos been doin' it for decades. Nowadays, live poker players are up against people who've played 9 million hands on a computer whereas Ammarillo Slim never played that many in his life. Poker in Vegas used to be local sharps versus Tourist Fish, but now everybody is a local sharp playing a really tight game who hasn't had a "tell" in thirty years.Quote: dmIt's probably true that many people can win money from drunks and neophytes.
Quote: dmFor sure your going to die, then, or at least change jobs.
You don't know how I play.....Therefore, you know nothing about me.....
Quote: EricayneYou don't know how I play.....Therefore, you know nothing about me.....
I know with absolute dead certain surety that you cannot beat craps unless you are cheating.
Quote: kmumfIll take keno! Why not just lounge around all day and make money watching ping pong balls... Stu is my favorite keno manager he is at Ballys check him out....
So, you are in security and get paid to keep anyone from snatching them balls? Made me laugh, though.
Why would anyone play if they were not cheating?Quote: dmI know with absolute dead certain surety that you cannot beat craps unless you are cheating.
of pro gamblers at any given time. They also think
they themselves could become a winning pro gambler
if they ever decided to become one. Thats because
the average person knows squat about gambling except
what they see in the movies.
So what is horse racing... a track has something like seventeen percent house edge and they test the horse's urine after the race. Unless you can get massive crowd behavior to skew the betting on a particular horse how you can make any money?Quote: FrGambleI wonder why more don't play the ponies. It is beautiful and exciting to watch, you are really playing against the others at the track and if you really put yourself into it like a job I imagine you can get an edge.
You can't Dutch races anymore can you? Though that is how Arthur Flegenheimer a/k/a Dutch Schultz got his nick name.
Quote: FleaStiffWhy would anyone play if they were not cheating?
LMAO! How come I never thought of that line? Very good.
Quote: FleaStiffSo what is horse racing... a track has something like seventeen percent house edge and they test the horse's urine after the race. Unless you can get massive crowd behavior to skew the betting on a particular horse how you can make any money?
You can't Dutch races anymore can you? Though that is how Arthur Flegenheimer a/k/a Dutch Schultz got his nick name.
And there are so many ways to unfairly influence the outcome. Last time I bet on horses, I would simply look at the odds on 2 horse combinations, vrs the individual odds on each horse winning multiplied, and occasionally there would be a surprising discrepancy. Say a 3 to 1 with a 9 to 1, expect around 27, but might be offered at 40. Maybe not surprisingly, those juicy combo odds would nearly always correct last minute after I had my bet down.
Quote: FleaStiffSo what is horse racing... a track has something like seventeen percent house edge
Because of the different races you can bet on and
the kinds of odds you take, you can have a win rate
of only 33% and still make a bunch of money. Its a
tough business, though, you have to make lots of
bets and eat a lot of losing races.
Quote: EvenBobyou have to make lots of bets and eat a lot of losing races.
I thought professional horse race bettors had to eat a lot of oats.
Quote: FleaStiffSo what is horse racing... a track has something like seventeen percent house edge and they test the horse's urine after the race. Unless you can get massive crowd behavior to skew the betting on a particular horse how you can make any money? .
That is the overall edge. Edge on individual runners is very very different. Horses get massively over and under bet all the time. Do your own ratings, frame your own market, bet the overs and lay the unders and if you're good enough you can make a few percent on your turnover. Much more difficult in your country where all you have is parimutuel wagering but still possible. We have parimutuals, bookmakers & betting exchanges which makes it much easier.
Quote: AussieThat is the overall edge. Edge on individual runners is very very different. Horses get massively over and under bet all the time. Do your own ratings, frame your own market
Thats pretty much what I said. Bottom line is, know
what you're doing, have a huge BR, or stay home.
This sentence should be a bumper sticker:
"If it was easy, everybody would be doing it."
And probably are too emotionally excited by "bright lights, casino buzz and 'vacation in Vegas" to play well even if they did know what they were doing.
>Tonight I had a player betting $100-300 a hand which is crazy action for my place as most people bet $10 at the most.
Well, I'm sure he saw the signs and made his own decisions. I don't fault him there.
> He was dealt 6 6 and split them
That is the Basic Strategy recommendation though I, as an Ultimate Basic Strategy player, would have said "Stand."
>Some how I hit to a 21 with about six cards.
Basic Strategy moves do not guarantee the player victory, only a good shot at it. Players who have 12-16 are not in an enviable position. I mean its not like standing in front of a firing squad or something; its more like drawing your own keys at a wife-swapping party: its not what you really hoped for but it may not turn out to be all that bad anyway.
>Any player can hit a winning streak but in the end the casino wins.
Of course. The player has no incentive to quite during the winning streak, he has no knowledge of how long it will last. When it finally ends he found it exciting so why should he quit, his luck will come back. Besides,,, booze and babes abound, so why should he quit.
In the same sense that a drug addict wants control over the needle, not the contents of the hypodermic, the gambler is focusing on the experience, not the results. Its the action of putting the chips in the circle and saying "Hit Me" that is craved far more than this suddenly magical number of 21.
-The only way you can win in craps is if you're a proven dice controller (rare)
-Blackjack requires counting and a spread large enough that you can beat the edge but is an advantage play.
-HoleCarding has variable circumstances and depends on the dealer and the casino (markets come and go all of the time) but is an advantage play.
-VideoPoker is low earnings but if you have a large enough bankroll, go on good comp days, place perfect strategy on a great 99.9%+ machine (they exist) or find an overdue progressive (for example, at the Peppermill Reno they had a $.25 deuces wild progressive where the 4 deuces paid $530 (normally $250) and the Royal was at $1750 for a player advantage of 1.3%. Add in a quadruple player's card promo and you're up to about 2%, with alot of variance).
-Sports betting offers advantages for certain plays that with study and perserverance, can get an advantage. The same would be true of ponies.
Personally, I hate making bets where I have no control over the outcome, so I'll never bet sports, unless I'm one of the contestants, like in tennis or golf. I feel it's throwing away money when it's a game with a known house edge. That leaves just live poker, the only game where your opponents are drunken tourists who don't mind a few hundo loss and are too impatient or inexperienced to learn the game like I have.
Quote: zippyboyLive poker is the only viable selection
Also: sports betting.
Both are tough, but possible.
There are those who rely on one or the other for their daily bread.
Quote: zippyboyThere are no professional craps or roulette players out there paying their bills and mortgages exclusively through this game. At least you had the sense not to put slots as a choice. Live poker is the only viable selection, but it takes experience, patience, people-reading skills and quick math skills to succeed. And you have to play at stakes high enough the rake doesn't eat up your profits. And you can't give away your profits voluntarily by excessive tipping the dealers and waitresses. A pro poker player is there to make money, and takes advantage of any promos the room is having, like aces cracked and rakeback at TI coming up in a month, and when the regular $1/hr comps become $2/hr and even $3/hr at some places. Video poker schedules are deteriorating in this town making it no longer feasible to pay bills on $5 JoB. Your money is lost to the casino more slowly in baccarat and pai gow, but lose you will. Sports and race betting takes lots of knowledge in the games and inside info to make informed bets. You just learned the quarterback's wife was caught being unfaithful, but it's not on ESPN yet? His head may not be in the game. You'd need to understand all the horse and dog tracks in the country and all the nuances that the other bettors don't.
Personally, I hate making bets where I have no control over the outcome, so I'll never bet sports, unless I'm one of the contestants, like in tennis or golf. I feel it's throwing away money when it's a game with a known house edge. That leaves just live poker, the only game where your opponents are drunken tourists who don't mind a few hundo loss and are too impatient or inexperienced to learn the game like I have.
I don't get your point. You have complete control of a sports bet-you can bet one way or the exact opposite.
Quote: dmYou have complete control of a sports bet-you can bet one way or the exact opposite.
And bribe one of the opponents to take a dive.
Not entirely. One lucky guy plunked his money down and told the ticket writer what he wanted, grabbed the ticket and went to line up at the deli or something when he noticed his ticket shown he had given the favorite 15 points or something... it was the exact opposite of what he had said to the ticket writer.Quote: dmYou have complete control of a sports bet-you can bet one way or the exact opposite.
After hot footing it back to the counter to get it done right, he was told sorry... that line thats been that way all week just moved two points you should have read the ticket before leaving now all you can do is buy a ticket for the opposite and swallow the line move yourself.
Well, I never quite understood the details but it seems it all wound up with a spectacular last minute play and EACH of his two contrary tickets on the same event paid off.
So what is really happening is that people do indeed make money at sports betting on a routine and fairly consistent basis (read Lay The Favorite) but its still an Up Jumped The Devil situation for everyone. So yes, you can make a living at it, but there will be episodes of second best hands.
It reminds me of all the young men who started out with the Chicago Board Options Exchange... they were buying million dollar houses a few years out of high school... but they were buying them for cash because they knew ... as traders you never trust the long term results.
Quote: kpAnd bribe one of the opponents to take a dive.
Makes me chuckle to envision that both teams have been bribed to take a dive. Can't you just see both teams trying to be outplayed by the other, the worse one side plays, the more desperate the other side becomes. At the end, they are playing their absolute hardest to score at the other team's basket, running into their own end zone........no that would just be a safety, fumbling into their own end zone. The other team would of course refuse to cover it, matter of fact they would run toward their own end zone lest they be dragged back and forced on top of the ball for a TD. In the end, the smartest coach would say "we forfeit first."
Quote: dmMakes me chuckle to envision that both teams have been bribed to take a dive. Can't you just see both teams trying to be outplayed by the other, the worse one side plays, the more desperate the other side becomes. At the end, they are playing their absolute hardest to score at the other team's basket, running into their own end zone........no that would just be a safety, fumbling into their own end zone. The other team would of course refuse to cover it, matter of fact they would run toward their own end zone lest they be dragged back and forced on top of the ball for a TD. In the end, the smartest coach would say "we forfeit first."
I think this is why officiating is the way to go if you want to cheat. Selective enforcement of the rules can really affect the outcome of a contest... Wait a minute, that is already going on, we call it "The Playoffs".
Quote: dmCan't you just see both teams trying to be outplayed by the other, the worse one side plays, the more desperate the other side becomes.
I think I've seen games like that.
1994: In the preliminary round of the 1994 Caribbean Cup, Barbados deliberately scored an own goal in a successful attempt to advance to the final stage by forcing golden goal extra time against Grenada, as an unusual tournament rule awarded a two goal victory to a team that won in extra time. Needing a two goal victory to advance, Barbados found themselves up 2–1 with three minutes left in regulation time. After Grenada realised what had happened, they in turn tried to score against their own net while Barbados defended both goals for the final three minutes of the match.[6] Barbados won the game in extra time and advanced to the next round.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Own_goal
A similar thing it seems happened in a Thailand / Indonesia game (see same page).
Quote: thecesspitDue to an oddity in the way games were scored in a Carribbean Cup qualifier in soccer, once both teams were trying to score an own goal, with teams defending their opponents goals :
1994: In the preliminary round of the 1994 Caribbean Cup, Barbados deliberately scored an own goal in a successful attempt to advance to the final stage by forcing golden goal extra time against Grenada, as an unusual tournament rule awarded a two goal victory to a team that won in extra time. Needing a two goal victory to advance, Barbados found themselves up 2–1 with three minutes left in regulation time. After Grenada realised what had happened, they in turn tried to score against their own net while Barbados defended both goals for the final three minutes of the match.[6] Barbados won the game in extra time and advanced to the next round.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Own_goal
A similar thing it seems happened in a Thailand / Indonesia game (see same page).
Credit to the Barbados' coaching staff for identifiying and capitalizing on the opportunity. But why would Grenada try to score in their own goal? Just to spoil it for the Barbadasians? (what is the proper term?).
Quote: kpI think I've seen games like that.
Another poor Cowboy fan, you say?
Quote: thecesspitDue to an oddity in the way games were scored in a Carribbean Cup qualifier in soccer, once both teams were trying to score an own goal, with teams defending their opponents goals :
1994: In the preliminary round of the 1994 Caribbean Cup, Barbados deliberately scored an own goal in a successful attempt to advance to the final stage by forcing golden goal extra time against Grenada, as an unusual tournament rule awarded a two goal victory to a team that won in extra time. Needing a two goal victory to advance, Barbados found themselves up 2–1 with three minutes left in regulation time. After Grenada realised what had happened, they in turn tried to score against their own net while Barbados defended both goals for the final three minutes of the match.[6] Barbados won the game in extra time and advanced to the next round.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Own_goal
A similar thing it seems happened in a Thailand / Indonesia game (see same page).
And thus the tournament officials looked like complete idiots to everyone but themselves. Interesting bit of trivia? Probably not to the runner-up who lost their place to Barbados, unless somehow it was Grenada. Which as you later stated it was. So how many thousands of fans were killed in the aftermath?
And it was indeed Grenada who were eliminated after Barbados scored in extra time. Barbados only drew one match in the cup itself, being eliminated in group stages.
The rule is no longer in effect...
The most famous own goal is probably the one scored by the Colombian Captain in the 1994 world cup, which gave the USA the eventual win in the group stages, and sent the very talented Colombian team home early. Andres Escobar the captain managed to score from 30 yards out into his own net while trying to intercept a cross field pass. Escobar died a few weeks later, shot in Mendellin. No relation to the drug lord of the same name. But there's is a very good documentary called "The Two Escobars" about the relationship between football and the Cartels.
