mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 4:26:09 PM permalink
A few days ago, someone brought up an interesting point regarding (yet again) past numbers. *ALWAYS* a favorite subject of mine.

We'll use the 00 wheel for my example. When the AP (cough) crew do their thing regarding looking for a bias wheel/tilted wheel (use whatever term you like), they either jot down many numbers OR we have also read that it only takes a couple spins to spot it IF it exists. I say thats a load of BS but thats a different thread (lol). Anyways, those AP guys are using PAST RESULTS ('gamblers fallacy') to now make their bets and hopefully a profitable day.

Example being, the tilt (or bias) is in the 30, 11, 7, 20 section. Ok, fine whatever. Now take the method guy that also did some tracking etc. and he wants to include those same 4 numbers into his betting METHOD. Whether its flat betting or a progression, does not matter. My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS, its somehow BETTER or more acceptable.....God like almost (lol).


When a hard working method guy wants to use those EXACT SAME numbers, for some reason HE is using gamblers fallacy and destined to lose. Hmmmm, I'm a bit confused.

Ken
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 4:33:07 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

A few days ago, someone brought up an interesting point regarding (yet again) past numbers. *ALWAYS* a favorite subject of mine.

We'll use the 00 wheel for my example. When the AP (cough) crew do their thing regarding looking for a bias wheel/tilted wheel (use whatever term you like), they either jot down many numbers OR we have also read that it only takes a couple spins to spot it IF it exists. I say thats a load of BS but thats a different thread (lol). Anyways, those AP guys are using PAST RESULTS ('gamblers fallacy') to now make their bets and hopefully a profitable day.

Example being, the tilt (or bias) is in the 30, 11, 7, 20 section. Ok, fine whatever. Now take the method guy that also did some tracking etc. and he wants to include those same 4 numbers into his betting METHOD. Whether its flat betting or a progression, does not matter. My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS, its somehow BETTER or more acceptable.....God like almost (lol).


When a hard working method guy wants to use those EXACT SAME numbers, for some reason HE is using gamblers fallacy and destined to lose. Hmmmm, I'm a bit confused.

Ken



Seriously now...you DO realize that 0 people here are claiming to be advantage roulette players, right? ZERO.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 4:44:21 PM permalink
Ummm, is this gonna be the NORM again? 12 replies and not one answer? (lol) I love this place. You know what you should do? Wait to see what the general consensus is and THEN just go along with it. Ya cant lose!!

Ken
thecesspit
thecesspit
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 4:48:02 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

Ummm, is this gonna be the NORM again? 12 replies and not one answer? (lol) I love this place. You know what you should do? Wait to see what the general consensus is and THEN just go along with it. Ya cant lose!!

Ken



That you'll post a question that people point is flawed from the start, then bloviate about how no-one answers your crappy questions that use words in way no-one else does?

Yep, the odds are certainly that will be how it goes again.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 4:48:39 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

Ummm, is this gonna be the NORM again? 12 replies and not one answer? (lol) I love this place. You know what you should do? Wait to see what the general consensus is and THEN just go along with it. Ya cant lose!!

Ken



If you want an answer, you should consider asking a question. The only question mark in your post is in the line "my point?" It seems silly to expect us to respond to that question, since then we'd only be telling you what your own point is...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Nareed
Nareed
  • Threads: 373
  • Posts: 11413
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
July 13th, 2011 at 5:03:22 PM permalink
Just block him already. It's not hard.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Wavy70
Wavy70
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 907
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
July 13th, 2011 at 5:04:04 PM permalink
I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.
I have a bewitched egg that I use to play VP with and I have net over 900k with it.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 5:07:32 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Just block him already. It's not hard.



Blocking HIM is easy (and done). But the threads are still there. And then I see that others have made what look like good points in those threads, and then i have to click to see what drivel led to the good points...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 3502
Joined: May 10, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 5:18:07 PM permalink
Quote: Wavy70

I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.


Just how did that work, who controlled it and can we adapt it to craps?
Nareed
Nareed
  • Threads: 373
  • Posts: 11413
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
July 13th, 2011 at 5:21:35 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Blocking HIM is easy (and done). But the threads are still there. And then I see that others have made what look like good points in those threads, and then i have to click to see what drivel led to the good points...



So block the impulse to look.

If you keep feeding him, he'll never go away. There are so many other boards where he can be a nuissance. Stop hogging him :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 5:24:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wavy70

I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.



Why not just use the Vizzini method? (What in the world can that be?!?)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Nareed
Nareed
  • Threads: 373
  • Posts: 11413
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
July 13th, 2011 at 5:30:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wavy70

I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.



Was it the same method used at Rick's Cafe?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 5:51:13 PM permalink
Here is the bottom line for definitions of using past results (gamblers fallacy).

Not EVERY situation can be the SAME definition guys.

I'll give two opposite situations >>

The first, past numbers mean something. I'll track 200 spins. I'll choose 3 numbers for YOU and 3 numbers for me. For myself, I'll take the 3 most recent numbers that have three hits on it (hot).

For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple. That is an example of past numbers with MEANING.

Now, an example of gamblers fallacy >> The 4 5 6 street has not hit in the last 12 spins so now its DUE to hit SOON.

Are BOTH of my examples the same? Of course not. Do they BOTH use past results? Yes.

Ken
Wavy70
Wavy70
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 907
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
July 13th, 2011 at 5:55:11 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Was it the same method used at Rick's Cafe?



With the quality of writing I highly doubt the team behind DoH would stoop to stealing ideas.

My system at roulette is I play every number on the board. They all laugh at me but I just keep pulling back the stacks.
I have a bewitched egg that I use to play VP with and I have net over 900k with it.
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 3259
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 5:57:29 PM permalink
I don't like the taste of to much cilantro.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 6:24:10 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj


The first, past numbers mean something. I'll track 200 spins. I'll choose 3 numbers for YOU and 3 numbers for me. For myself, I'll take the 3 most recent numbers that have three hits on it (hot).

For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple. That is an example of past numbers with MEANING.



What meaning do you think the past spins have? Of COURSE they'll come close to balancing out. That's how math works, and this is really really really simple math.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
matilda
matilda
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 317
Joined: Feb 4, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 7:20:15 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS.



Ken,
Please explain why those who use a diffuse prior probability distribution through Bayesian analysis to derive a posterior distribution are incorrect. This is essentially what you are saying.

Matilda.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28576
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
July 13th, 2011 at 7:38:55 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj



For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple.



The result won't mean anything because the sample is too small. With a large enough sample, it will balance out, thats all that matters. All you can prove in the short term is that anything can happen. If its raining money, turn your hat over and catch it. But when it stops, don't hang around waiting for it to start again..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 14th, 2011 at 2:05:04 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The result won't mean anything because the sample is too small. With a large enough sample, it will balance out, thats all that matters. All you can prove in the short term is that anything can happen. If its raining money, turn your hat over and catch it. But when it stops, don't hang around waiting for it to start again..




I could change it up a bit? We'll keep everything the same except it'll be done over 800 trials instead of 100. My point? In a small number of situations (NOT ALL), those past 'hot' numbers (and only betting for the next 20 spins, 800 trials, no bias BTW) I'll take those few numbers ANYDAY. Remember, I use to be HUGE, betting on sleepers. Made some damn good money on some days but in the END.......'due' (cold) killed my BR.

My favorite (through trial and error)

A) 2-3 numbers max.

B) HOT, not cold.

C) Currently HOT....not 300 numbers from the past hot.

D) The numbers are constantly rotating.

Ken
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 14th, 2011 at 2:06:39 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Just block him already. It's not hard.




Dont read/respond to my posts. Problem solved on your end, correct?

Ken
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 14th, 2011 at 2:12:25 PM permalink
Quote: matilda

Ken,
Please explain why those who use a diffuse prior probability distribution through Bayesian analysis to derive a posterior distribution are incorrect. This is essentially what you are saying.

Matilda.



I can ask it a little different, I guess. >>

Here is an example: Lets say John and I lived in the same city, with one casino. I go and track a bunch of numbers and I see that 3 numbers are hitting alot (hot). I DONT CARE WHY but they are hitting alot. I do my betting and I have a great day. Two days later, John goes (same wheel) and he notices his bias (cough). Bets on those numbers, has a great day. Him and I were betting on the same numbers. Why am I the idiot for betting on those numbers OTHER THAN....I'm a method guy. Who cares?

Ken
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28576
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
July 14th, 2011 at 2:27:31 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj



My favorite (through trial and error)

A) 2-3 numbers max.

B) HOT, not cold.

C) Currently HOT....not 300 numbers from the past hot.

D) The numbers are constantly rotating.

Ken



You finally got off the cold numbers, I didn't know that. Gizmo is a big hot numbers fan, he studied them for years. I had a system for playing repeats that worked well. I think it was, chart 36 spins, if there are at least 8 numbers that repeat and less than 12 that repeat, play those 8-12 numbers exclusively until they stop hitting. It was insanely profitable sometimes, and other times it made nothing. If less than 8 repeated, its not enough to play, and over 12 is too many bets at one time. I remember 10 was the good number of repeats to play in 36 spins, but 8-12 can work too. Hot numbers can make you money, if you know when to stop and start over.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 14th, 2011 at 3:11:53 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You finally got off the cold numbers, I didn't know that. Gizmo is a big hot numbers fan, he studied them for years. I had a system for playing repeats that worked well. I think it was, chart 36 spins, if there are at least 8 numbers that repeat and less than 12 that repeat, play those 8-12 numbers exclusively until they stop hitting. It was insanely profitable sometimes, and other times it made nothing. If less than 8 repeated, its not enough to play, and over 12 is too many bets at one time. I remember 10 was the good number of repeats to play in 36 spins, but 8-12 can work too. Hot numbers can make you money, if you know when to stop and start over.



I'll give an example of what I do >> I bet on two and only two numbers per spin. (flat betting) I track the last 22 numbers hit. After each NEW number, I cross off the oldest number. I choose the 2 with the most hits. Its usually a number with 3 or more hits on it. A tie? Lets say 3 numbers with 3 hits? No real reason, I choose any TWO of those. What happens *ALOT*.....one win in 18 bets, one win in 18 bets, one win in 18 bets. Boring, just breaking even but WAIT FOR IT....Yep, you'll get that SURGE (we have all seen it) the same number hitting 6 times in that 22 spins along with my other bet hitting 5 times in the 22 spins. I accept the 'breaking even' betting. Its boring but not a huge deal. Its the SURGE that comes and goes. And when its gone, no biggie, its out of the 22 spin tracking so I'm not betting on it anymore regardless.

Ken
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28576
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
July 14th, 2011 at 3:32:00 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

I accept the 'breaking even' betting. Its boring but not a huge deal. Its the SURGE that comes and goes. And when its gone, no biggie, its out of the 22 spin tracking so I'm not betting on it anymore regardless.

Ken



For how many years did I say the thing to do in roulette is when you're not winning, break even. So you only have two modes of play, winning and not winning. But not losing. Of course breaking even is boring, but it beats the hell out of losing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mrjjj
mrjjj
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 1579
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
July 16th, 2011 at 5:10:34 PM permalink
This game is not that damn difficult. People give it (roulette) too much respect.

Ken
  • Jump to: