DaveW
DaveW
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March 21st, 2011 at 9:14:35 AM permalink
The odds in baccarat of any given hand winning or losing have long been documented. But, is there a way to determine the reliability of a given sample size? Obviously, the larger the sample size, the more likely the numbers will approach normalcy, so what I am asking is really: 1) is there a way to reliably see if the casino is cheating by tipping the odds against someone who always bets only one way or another? 2) How long and how often does a player have to play, in each session and as combined total sessions to have his own numbers reliably approach the established percentages? IE. If a player plays 100, 500, or a 1,000 hands in a session what are his chances of approaching the normative numbers? If he plays 200 of these sessions a year, how many of these sessions will he find numbers within the first standard deviation and what would be the bracketed percentages of the other sessions?

DaveW - New Member
If there is a better thread to post this or the answer is found elsewhere, please let me know. Thanks!
FleaStiff
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March 21st, 2011 at 11:18:56 AM permalink
House Edge: Banker= 1.06 Player=1.24 Tie=14.36 percent.

Win Rate: Clark County=10.24 Strip=10.26 Boulder 9.91 Downtown= 5.77

Bureaucrats: If played at the full sized table the commission refers to it as Baccarat whereas if played at a Midi or Mini table, its referred to simply as MiniBacc.

Advantage Play: Only if you can memorize eight decks or have paid the dealer to do a false shuffle is there such a thing as real Advantage play. Others milk Baccarat for freebies and enjoy a slow pace.
DaveW
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March 22nd, 2011 at 10:02:47 PM permalink
Either you didn't understand the question(#2 that is) or I didn't understand the answer.
How does "Win Rate: Clark County=10.24 Strip=10.26 Boulder 9.91 Downtown= 5.77" apply to a sample size? or SD percentage? or even remotely give me a bell curve to guess?

Maybe I should have posted this in the math section....

My second question pertains to the rate of expected return to "normal" as it pertains to sample size per session. Assuming that the higher the sample size the more likely it will represent the norm.

If I play ten hands, I might expect an odd set to turn up once every so many sets...say 8-2 (either way) instead of 5-5. But how many times out of how many sets should I expect a set (count 100) to turn up 80-20? (I've probably played 250k hands - both live and on WoO) and never seen it). Over the life of the recorded sessions the numbers are startling normal, with the banker with barely (insignificantly) the one percent edge over the player (ignoring ties). The largest live set I have played was 1486 hands (19hrs of play), the smallest (live set) 40. The large set "normal", the 40 hand set, a staggering 4-40 (yes I bet against it, and ran out of money!). Unfortunately I did not stay to chart any more hands to find out how long it took to draw that percentage down to even the second standard deviation. The largest shoe difference I have seen is 48 to 10 with bunches of ties (I got on that one after the second set of 5 losses and made up more than I lost on the 4-40!) .
guido111
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March 23rd, 2011 at 12:43:41 AM permalink
Let us see if I actually answered any of your questions. It is late.
Quote: DaveW

The odds in baccarat of any given hand winning or losing have long been documented.
But, is there a way to determine the reliability of a given sample size?


"reliability" are you talking about online casinos?
I will not go there.
To find out what can be "expected"?
Yes, either with a binomial distribution function or a normal distribution and also a binomial standard deviation formula.
Look them up if you do not understand them.
You can start here:
http://stattrek.com/Lesson2/Binomial.aspx?Tutorial=Stat
Quote: DaveW

Obviously, the larger the sample size, the more likely the numbers will approach normalcy, so what I am asking is really:


NO,NO,NO
The larger the sample size the more likely the percentages or relative frequencies will approach their expected value(s).
The absoulte difference has a higher probability of actually increasing(the difference between Banker wins and Payer Wins) as "n" also increases.
The Law of Large Numbers deals with percentages, NOT absolute differences. This is where the Gambler's Fallacy comes from, this simple misunderstanding about the Law.
Quote: DaveW

1) is there a way to reliably see if the casino is cheating by tipping the odds against someone who always bets only one way or another?


Again, if you are talking about online casinos, I will not go there.
For B&M casinos, why do they need to cheat? They have over a 1% edge on 2 basic Baccarat bets. They do not need to cheat.
Quote: DaveW

2) 1.How long and
2. how often does a player have to play, in each session and as combined total sessions to have his own numbers reliably approach the established percentages?
IE. If a player plays 100, 500, or a 1,000 hands in a session what are his chances of approaching the normative numbers?


Again, be careful about numbers and percentages in the same sentence. Talk more about expectation, expected values etc.
This is a binomial standard distribution question.
Formula for BSD is: SQRT(n*p*q)
For 100 hands (no ties included) SQRT (100*.5068*.4932)= ~5.0 (4.999537579)
Banker EV (n*p) = 100 * .5068 = 51 (expected number of wins in 100 hands)
1SD (0.6827) = 46 to 56
2SD (0.9545) = 41 to 61
3SD (0.9973) = 36 to 66

You can now figure out 500, 1,000 hands or any other number of trials.
Quote: DaveW

If he plays 200 of these sessions a year, how many of these sessions will he find numbers within the first standard deviation and what would be the bracketed percentages of the other sessions?


You can now calculate that yourself with the above formulas.
Quote: DaveW

My second question pertains to the rate of expected return to "normal" as it pertains to sample size per session. Assuming that the higher the sample size the more likely it will represent the norm.


Only the percentages or relative frequencies converge to thier expected values, not the actual numbers or absolute differences.
Quote: DaveW

If I play ten hands, I might expect an odd set to turn up once every so many sets...say 8-2 (either way) instead of 5-5.


This to me is a simple binomial distribution question. You will not always get 5-5 in 10 hands, expectation is 5-5 only ~25% of the time.
Google "WinStats". It is a free software program that will do all the calculating and even run simulations for you.
Binomial Distribution table for n=10
Banker
0 wins; 0.09%
1 win; 0.88%
2 wins; 4.05%
3 wins; 11.09%
4 wins; 19.94%
5 wins; 24.59%
6 wins; 21.05%
7 wins; 12.36%
8 wins; 4.76%
9 wins; 1.09%
10 wins; 0.11%
Below are the distribution results from a quick 1 million hand simulation showing the Bankers wins.
wins     freq  freq/100
---------------------------------------------
0.00 808 0.08%
1.00 8682 0.87%
2.00 40392 4.04%
3.00 110655 11.07%
4.00 199278 19.93%
5.00 246400 24.64%
6.00 210206 21.02%
7.00 123560 12.36%
8.00 47922 4.79%
9.00 10888 1.09%
10.00 1209 0.12%

grouped data
items: 1,000,000

minimum value: 0.00
first quartile: 4.00
median: 5.00
third quartile: 6.00
maximum value: 10.00

mean value: 5.07
midrange: 5.00

range: 10.00
interquartile range: 2.00
mean abs deviation: 1.25

sample variance (n): 2.50
sample variance (n-1): 2.50
sample std dev (n): 1.58
sample std dev (n-1): 1.58

One can see how close the actual "percentages" became while there is between 300-500 in the actual(empirical) numbers verses the theoretical numbers. You can again use the BSD formulas to see what 1SD, 2SD etc are.
Quote: DaveW

But how many times out of how many sets should I expect a set (count 100) to turn up 80-20? (I've probably played 250k hands - both live and on WoO) and never seen it).


And do not expect to either.
Exactly 80-20 (in Bankers favor) is another binomial distribution question. In Excel =BINOMDIST(80,100,0.5068,FALSE)
Answer is 0.00000009474170% or 1 in 1,055,501,438 sets of 100 hands.
80-20 or higher (81-19 etc)(in Bankers favor) is 0.000000126106% or 1 in 792,982,821 sets of 100 hands. So you have a better chance of seeing 80 or more than exactly 80.
Quote: DaveW

Over the life of the recorded sessions the numbers are startling normal, with the banker with barely (insignificantly) the one percent edge over the player(ignoring ties).


It would be "nomal" for the percentages to be as expected, not exact values.
1.36% difference is a big difference.
1 million hands (not counting ties) expectation is:
506,800 Banker wins
493,200 Player wins
an absolute difference of 13600 hands.
Quote: DaveW

The largest live set I have played was 1486 hands (19hrs of play), the smallest (live set) 40.
The large set "normal", the 40 hand set, a staggering 4-40 (yes I bet against it, and ran out of money!). Unfortunately I did not stay to chart any more hands to find out how long it took to draw that percentage down to even the second standard deviation.
The largest shoe difference I have seen is 48 to 10 with bunches of ties (I
got on that one after the second set of 5 losses and made up more than I lost
on the 4-40!)


Now you can work out the numbers for each shoe, not counting ties.
My sims shows an average of 1.028 as the absolute difference between Banker and Player wins per shoe with a standard deviation of 8.539

The longer one plays, the more trials and the greater chances of seeing something 3, 4 or even 5 SDs from the mean.
I hope you can take what I gave you and run with it. It really is simple math once you know what you are dealing with.
DaveW
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March 23rd, 2011 at 4:57:19 AM permalink
Thanks! That's a lot clearer!
JIMMYFOCKER
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March 23rd, 2011 at 6:36:49 AM permalink
Very beatable game with proper attack methods.
stinsonsmart
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March 24th, 2011 at 5:42:55 AM permalink
In the normal game of baccarat, players get cards from the shoe and then put them in an upside down position before turning the cards. During mini-baccarat only a single dealer handles all of the task in the game where in standard baccarat will have a lot of dealers. A normal baccarat game also requires big wager, wager minimum and wager maximum while mini-baccarat does not require a big wager, minimum and maximum. From here http://www.thebonuscasinos.com/baccarat' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>http://www.thebonuscasinos.com/baccarat"]http://www.thebonuscasinos.com/baccarat you may get more information on normal baccarat.
EvenBob
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August 6th, 2020 at 9:16:08 PM permalink
At Bovada just now there was a
bac shoe that had 50 player
decisions and 10 banker. Not
a single chop in the shoe.
There would be 8 players, 1
banker, 9 players 1 banker,
etc. The bettors were going
nuts with tips and comments.
In a real casino there would
have been a cheer after every
player decision. Everybody
cleaned up, it was amazing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MDawg
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August 6th, 2020 at 9:29:24 PM permalink
A pattern shoe - a discernible repeating predictable pattern - with streaks. Excellent shoe you describe there.

I'd have emptied the tray as best possible given whatever the limit. I've cleaned up on shoes not even as good as you describe and the one you describe is a dream shoe!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
EvenBob
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August 6th, 2020 at 10:07:36 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I've cleaned up on shoes not even as good as you describe and the one you describe is a dream shoe!



I should have taken a screen shot, it
was solid blue. Normally 6 or 7 new
players join the table every minute.
The last 10 minutes they were joining
so fast the scrolling was non stop.
Constant comments like Holy crap
and OMG and GO GO GO and
I Don't Believe This. The dealer was
all grins as he constantly tapped
out Shave and a Haircut, Two Bits with
his chip on the plastic card tray for
the non stop tipping.. The
casino had to lose thousands. I've
seen hundreds of shoes since 2008,
this was one for the books.

Several times banker was showing an
8 and dealer turned a 9 for player.
In a real casino the yells would have
been deafening.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
sabre
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August 7th, 2020 at 3:57:09 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

A pattern shoe - a discernible repeating predictable pattern



Too bad those don't exist in baccarat. Sounds like a fun shoe to a part of though.
MDawg
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August 7th, 2020 at 7:45:50 PM permalink
My consistent win statements over many years of play say otherwise. 😄

I don't think those are just imaginary dollars I keep pulling from the casinos.


Sabre is a longstanding fan...of the Adventures of MDawg.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Welcome!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Ace2
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August 7th, 2020 at 8:03:53 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

At Bovada just now there was a
bac shoe that had 50 player
decisions and 10 banker. Not
a single chop in the shoe.
There would be 8 players, 1
banker, 9 players 1 banker,
etc. The bettors were going
nuts with tips and comments.
In a real casino there would
have been a cheer after every
player decision. Everybody
cleaned up, it was amazing.

That’s quite remarkable...over 5 standard deviations from expectations.

Next shoe definitely bet the farm on banker since it’s due
It’s all about making that GTA
MDawg
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August 7th, 2020 at 8:19:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Next shoe definitely bet the farm on banker since it’s due


I know you're being facetious, but that kind of thinking is precisely why you'll never understand the game.

Still, no need to understand. Instead, just...Welcome! to the Adventures of MDawg.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Ace2
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August 7th, 2020 at 9:13:38 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I know you're being facetious, but that kind of thinking is precisely why you'll never understand the game.

I understand the game and its probabilities. I’ve even played it a few times (I’d say for about one hour combined).

Please teach me about baccarat culture and superstition
It’s all about making that GTA
EvenBob
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August 8th, 2020 at 9:46:36 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2


Next shoe definitely bet the farm on banker since it’s due



What does the next shoe have to
do with the previous shoe. I don't
get it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Marcusclark66
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August 8th, 2020 at 10:45:37 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2



Next shoe definitely bet the farm on banker since it’s due



Also depends where the farm is. For example something off the I-5 in Southern California versus out near area 51. Of course you know the value of the stuff right off of I-5, of course you do.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
AxelWolf
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August 8th, 2020 at 11:14:58 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

What does the next shoe have to
do with the previous shoe. I don't
get it.

He was obviously joking.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ace2
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August 8th, 2020 at 8:30:11 PM permalink
Quote: Marcusclark66

Also depends where the farm is. For example something off the I-5 in Southern California versus out near area 51. Of course you know the value of the stuff right off of I-5, of course you do.

Like Downey and Compton, California?
It’s all about making that GTA
MDawg
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August 8th, 2020 at 9:07:16 PM permalink
A shack in Compton will set you back a half million.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Ace2
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August 8th, 2020 at 10:37:54 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

A shack in Compton will set you back a half million.

I didn’t believe you until I looked at Zillow. There are 800 sqft homes there (with bars on the windows) that have recently sold for $500k or close to it.

Unbelievable. It’s a signal we are entering real estate bubble 2.0 IMO.
It’s all about making that GTA
Marcusclark66
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August 9th, 2020 at 6:17:58 AM permalink
I was thinking more around Santa Clarita area. You said 'bet the farm' so farm prices have to come into consideration.
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
MDawg
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August 9th, 2020 at 7:54:38 AM permalink
Santa Ynez. I neither confirm nor deny that I own a ranch there though.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
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August 9th, 2020 at 7:55:31 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I didn’t believe you until I looked at Zillow. There are 800 sqft homes there (with bars on the windows) that have recently sold for $500k or close to it.

Unbelievable. It’s a signal we are entering real estate bubble 2.0 IMO.


What’s more, why would anyone want to pay a half million (or more) to live in Compton in the first place. At least – when I was growing up, Compton was not anyplace anyone my family knew or associated with would have lived or wanted to live. But then today, obviously, you have people who can afford 500K - $1M homes living in Compton.

Now, there are fantastic communities in southern Cal where around a million will still get you a great house, but yes I agree that real estate prices have gotten a little out of hand especially in terms of rising faster than average incomes.
Last edited by: MDawg on Aug 9, 2020
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
EvenBob
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August 9th, 2020 at 9:45:20 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg


Now, there are fantastic communities in southern Cal



I wouldn't live in Calif if it was
free. I was there 7 years and
have never been back.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Ace2
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MDawg
August 9th, 2020 at 10:24:52 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Now, there are fantastic communities in southern Cal where around a million will still get you a great house.

That’s “only” about 17 times median household income. Historically people can afford about 3 times
It’s all about making that GTA
Mission146
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August 10th, 2020 at 4:40:32 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I wouldn't live in Calif if it was
free. I was there 7 years and
have never been back.



That’s okay; I wouldn’t live in Michigan if you paid me. ;)

I also would not live in California for free, unless it was on the beach, then I’d consider.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EvenBob
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August 10th, 2020 at 9:21:24 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That’s okay; I wouldn’t live in Michigan if you paid me. ;)



Why would you, when you lived
in W Virginia on purpose. My dad
is from WVA and I was forced to
visit there every summer. Oh my
dear god.

MI, on the other hand, is a state
people visit and go, holy crap,
why have I never been here before.
The western and northern part, the
east over by Detroit is horrible.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DRich
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August 10th, 2020 at 9:51:13 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Why would you, when you lived
in W Virginia on purpose. My dad
is from WVA and I was forced to
visit there every summer. Oh my
dear god.

MI, on the other hand, is a state
people visit and go, holy crap,
why have I never been here before.
The western and northern part, the
east over by Detroit is horrible.



There are areas of Michigan that are very nice in the summer. I don't think there are any parts of Michigan that are nice in the winter, I spent a little bit of time in a little city called Marshal Michigan. It was a cute little town with friendly people that I could definitely live in in the summer. I also liked Ann Arbor.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DeMango
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August 10th, 2020 at 9:53:17 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

There are areas of Michigan that are very nice in the summer. I don't think there are any parts of Michigan that are nice in the winter,

Unless you ice fish or go do winter sports
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DRich
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August 10th, 2020 at 10:04:15 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Unless you ice fish or go do winter sports



Correct, I was implying not fit for normal people. Crazy people be crazy.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Mission146
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August 10th, 2020 at 6:34:16 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Why would you, when you lived
in W Virginia on purpose. My dad
is from WVA and I was forced to
visit there every summer. Oh my
dear god.

MI, on the other hand, is a state
people visit and go, holy crap,
why have I never been here before.
The western and northern part, the
east over by Detroit is horrible.



Touché.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Marcusclark66
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August 11th, 2020 at 2:41:06 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Santa Ynez. I neither confirm nor deny that I own a ranch there though.



But does Santa Ynez have activities to along with their wine tastings? Minnesota a seemingly nice place to live where the citizens can enjoy a night out with the respect from their local law enforcement. As far as Santa Ynez maybe have a couple glasses of wine, jump in the Bentley and do a few circles in front of the Santa Ynez police station. Of course safely.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/08/10/this-is-an-issue-brazen-hot-rodders-do-burnouts-donuts-next-to-downtown-minneapolis-police-precinct/amp/
Last edited by: Marcusclark66 on Aug 11, 2020
Marcus Clark. Real Person; AKA MarcusClark66. *Professional Casino Security Expert. *Certified EMT *Certified Company Firearms Instructor. *Certified Gaming Regulations Interpreter for Corporate Applications. *Domestic UrbanTactical Combat Casualty Expert. *Tic-Tac-Toe Expert (Real Competitive Versions) & Mastering Chess. *Honorary & Official #1 Fan of the MDawg Adventures Club. *Mastering Cracking it. Bit-by-Bit, Piece-by-Piece Crediting Forum Members. *Certified Casino Property Entry & Exit Point Analyzer *Baccarat Winning Session Record: 12 out of 12 & 1 out of 1 Mini Session. Baccarat Losing Session Record: 2 Losing Sessions.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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Joined: Jul 18, 2010
August 11th, 2020 at 9:53:59 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

There are areas of Michigan that are very nice in the summer. I don't think there are any parts of Michigan that are nice in the winter,



MI is called the Water Winter Wonderland
because there is so much to do here year
round. We get tons of tourists in the
winter for skiing, hunting, snow mobileing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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