Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
Your method is worth less than your opinion.
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Actually the polar opposite is true.
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You mean your opinion is worth less than your method?!?
Um.... agreed. LOL
Quote: TigerWu
You mean your opinion is worth less than your method?!?
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I mean that my opinion is worth what everybody else's opinion is worth. Take it and $20 and you can get a coffee at Starbucks.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
You mean your opinion is worth less than your method?!?
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I mean that my opinion is worth what everybody else's opinion is worth. Take it and $20 and you can get a coffee at Starbucks.
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Same with your stories.
Quote: EvenBob
I mean that my opinion is worth what everybody else's opinion is worth. Take it and $20 and you can get a coffee at Starbucks.
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A coffee at Starbucks is less than $3, so that leaves me with $17 and change to give to you to double with your roulette system. Maybe by this time next year you'll have turned it into $34!
Quote: TigerWu
A coffee at Starbucks is less than $3,
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I was using hyperbole to make a point. Duh..
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
A coffee at Starbucks is less than $3,
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I was using hyperbole to make a point. Duh..
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What was the point?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Even when the math is on your side... unless there's a 100% guarantee that you will win a bet that's been made, it's called gambling.Quote: EvenBobI found my new sig line. I was watching a gambling video and it jumped right out at me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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You could have a situation where you have a huge mathematical advantage, but still be very very likely to lose.
Regardless....
SHOW US THE MATH showing the math is on your side.
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
I never gave up, it never even occurred to me to give up.
"Energy and persistence conquer all things."
Benjamin Franklin
Quote: EvenBobI came across this quote from Calvin Coolidge in the 1980s and it had a profound effect on me and it has a lot to do with my success at roulette.
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
I never gave up, it never even occurred to me to give up.
"Energy and persistence conquer all things."
Benjamin Franklin
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It works as well for the guys with carboard signs on street corners. I assume we're talking about the same level of success.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
A coffee at Starbucks is less than $3,
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I was using hyperbole to make a point. Duh..
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No s***, Sherlock. I was making a joke. Duh.
Quote: TigerWu
No s***, Sherlock. .
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Now there's a phrase you don't hear very often anymore. It's right up there with scarce as hens teeth, and sleep tight.
Quote: EvenBobLet's say hypothetically a player could make enough bets, say a couple of million, that he would be in the proverbial long-term. What would change about placing a bet in the extreme short-term. Absolutely nothing. It would work exactly the same as if he was placing his very first bet ever. Why wouldn't it, nothing has changed. The law of large numbers is not some magical place that you get to if you're a player. It does work from the casino standpoint because they're looking at a huge number of players so the law of large numbers will even everything out eventually for them. For the individual player it's absolutely meaningless. He could never get there even if he tried and even if he did nothing would change.
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You have no idea what you are talking about. Every bet you make has the same negative expectation. Squinting really hard at the past results doesn't change that.
Something tells me the results would be almost indistinguishable.
Quote: TigerWuSomebody run a program with 1,000,000 Roulette spins and 10,000,000,000 Roulette spins and let's see how close the numbers are for ratios of red to black.
Something tells me the results would be almost indistinguishable.
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You can track a billion billion spins on a table, and it would give you zero information about the next spin.
Quote: billryanQuote: TigerWuSomebody run a program with 1,000,000 Roulette spins and 10,000,000,000 Roulette spins and let's see how close the numbers are for ratios of red to black.
Something tells me the results would be almost indistinguishable.
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You can track a billion billion spins on a table, and it would give you zero information about the next spin.
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Tell that to EB...lol
Quote: billryan
Every bet you make has the same negative expectation.
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Only if you're making random bets against random outcomes. When I make a bet it has a positive expectation. And that has nothing to do with the law of big numbers which is what I'm talking about here.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
That way I can claim a 100% hit rate, and brag that my "method" is better than EB's paltry 80% hit rate.
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Speaking of the paltry 80%, nobody has considered that this makes for a lot of long winning streaks. The longest one I was aware of was 42 in a row without a loss. It happened over about a 12-day stretch., but that's very exceptional. It's not unusual to have 14 or 16 or 18 in a row without a loss but 42 is my record. And of course if there is a loss or even two losses in a row recovery is extremely fast. In fact this is what I was shooting for in all those years of practicing, an exceptionally high hit rate....
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So, EvenBob has now claimed that he once won 42 consecutive 'even money' bets.
That's outside bets on a roulette table.... And it spun out over a 12 day stretch. He must have been feeling greedier than usual, because he's so often told us that he likes to make his win goal and then walk away. He also tells us how he flat bets.
It never happened, of course. It's just a fantastical story. But if it did, what a pity if he was flat betting.
Flat betting $10, he'd have walked away with a record breaking $420 profit. WOW!
If he'd increased his wager by 50% each time, rounding down, then he'd have staked and won as per the schedule below.
Making him a millionaire after 27 wagers and almost a semi billionaire after wager 42
He also says that 14, 16 or even 18 wins in a row is not unusual. Betting to this schedule would see him taking 5k to 28k on those frequent events.
If he just let the wager roll, he'd have been a millionaire after the first 17 wins. But that's risking $10 and we know EvenBob is not a gambler! He would have only been risking $10
Just for perspective, winning those 42 Even Money wagers is a 1 in 13900396758900 event *
It didn't happen. Not even close to believable.
Wager | Bankroll After | |
1 | 10 | 20 |
2 | 15 | 35 |
3 | 22 | 57 |
4 | 33 | 90 |
5 | 49 | 139 |
6 | 73 | 212 |
7 | 109 | 321 |
8 | 163 | 484 |
9 | 244 | 728 |
... | ||
14 | 1851 | 5551 |
... | ||
16 | 4164 | 12491 |
... | ||
18 | 9369 | 28106 |
... | ||
27 | 360145 | 1080440 |
... | ||
42 | 157704907 | 473114735 |
* assuming single zero wheel and no table limits.
Quote: billryan
You can track a billion billion spins on a table, and it would give you zero information about the next spin.
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It would give you zero information, it would give me a ton of information. That's why I track past outcomes. Past outcomes can't tell you absolutely what's going to happen but they can point in a certain direction sometimes if you know what you're looking at. Like the old zen master said, I can't teach you anything, all I can do is point. You have to do the rest of the work yourself.
Pointless. Just like this thread.Quote: TigerWuSomebody run a program with 1,000,000 Roulette spins and 10,000,000,000 Roulette spins and let's see how close the numbers are for ratios of red to black.
Something tells me the results would be almost indistinguishable.
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We can heckle all we like, but the protagonist is not listening.
Quote: OnceDearPointless. Just like this thread.Quote: TigerWuSomebody run a program with 1,000,000 Roulette spins and 10,000,000,000 Roulette spins and let's see how close the numbers are for ratios of red to black.
Something tells me the results would be almost indistinguishable.
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We can heckle all we like, but the protagonist is not listening.
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I'd still be interested in knowing how close the results were.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
You can track a billion billion spins on a table, and it would give you zero information about the next spin.
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It would give you zero information, it would give me a ton of information. That's why I track past outcomes. Past outcomes can't tell you absolutely what's going to happen but they can point in a certain direction sometimes if you know what you're looking at. Like the old zen master said, I can't teach you anything, all I can do is point. You have to do the rest of the work yourself.
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No one believes you. If you want to write fiction, you need to make it semiplausible.
Quote: OnceDear
It never happened, of course. It's just a fantastical story. But if it did, what a pity if he was flat betting.
Flat betting $10, he'd have walked away with a record breaking $420 profit. WOW!
If he'd increased his wager by 50% each time,
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Just for the heck of it I unblocked Oncedear to see how it goes. I'm not optimistic.
Yes everything looks great in hindsight. Woulda Coulda Shoulda.. It doesn't work that way, I had no idea 42 in a row was coming it's usually around 12 or 14 or 16 if I'm going to have a streak. It's like when somebody sees 18 Reds in a row and they think if only I would have started betting on red at number five. But of course you don't because you don't have any idea what's coming nobody does. This is why I make one unit and get out. I don't know what's coming and I'm perfectly happy making one unit. Greed will get you every time, it's the downfall of every gambler. 80% sounds really great and it is good but it's not Bulletproof. You can get a zero at any time and there's always the 20% that you're going to get wrong. Best thing to do is set an extremely modest goal, do it and leave. And yes I did it in 12 days because I obviously was playing more than one Casino a day.
Quote: billryan
No one believes you. If you want to write fiction, you need to make it semiplausible.
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How would it change things if people believed me. It would change absolutely nothing. But you act like it's important for some reason. And if I was writing fiction I certainly would write something more exciting than this. To me this is boredom Deluxe, all casino games are boring.
Just for the heck of it, you unblock my every post.Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDear
It never happened, of course. It's just a fantastical story. But if it did, what a pity if he was flat betting.
Flat betting $10, he'd have walked away with a record breaking $420 profit. WOW!
If he'd increased his wager by 50% each time,
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Just for the heck of it I unblocked Oncedear to see how it goes. I'm not optimistic.
Yes everything looks great in hindsight. Woulda Coulda Shoulda.. It doesn't work that way, I had no idea 42 in a row was coming it's usually around 12 or 14 or 16 if I'm going to have a streak. It's like when somebody sees 18 Reds in a row and they think if only I would have started betting on red at number five. But of course you don't because you don't have any idea what's coming nobody does. This is why I make one unit and get out. I don't know what's coming and I'm perfectly happy making one unit. Greed will get you every time, it's the downfall of every gambler. 80% sounds really great and it is good but it's not Bulletproof. You can get a zero at any time and there's always the 20% that you're going to get wrong. Best thing to do is set an extremely modest goal, do it and leave. And yes I did it in 12 days because I obviously was playing more than one Casino a day.
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You don't have any idea what's coming next? Not even an educated guess? Not even an 80% probable guess?
Best you can do is kelly bet and be almost absolutely sure that your 80% hit rate will make you $1M out of your $10 stake before the year is up. If you wan't to bet modestly and with low risk, bet Half Kelly or Quarter Kelly. Most you are ever risking is your initial one unit stake. Everything risked beyond that is 'house money'
Anyway, your load of nonsense thread just jumped the shark The Fonz while he, himself, was jumping the shark, with your laughable 42 wins claim.
Quote: OnceDear
You don't have any idea what's coming next? Not even an educated guess? Not even an 80% probable guess?
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Nope. That's the whole point of the 80%. It's very much pick and choose, get in and get out. I see an opportunity to bet and I'm correct. So I made my unit and I stop. I can sit there and wait for another opportunity and maybe I'll get it maybe I won't. But why would I do that when I already made my goal. I would only do that if I was an addicted gambler and I'm the totally opposite of an addicted gambler. These chances to bet where I do 80% don't come along at every other spin. Often they don't show up at all. Sometimes for days. I hate when that happens.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDear
You don't have any idea what's coming next? Not even an educated guess? Not even an 80% probable guess?
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Nope. That's the whole point of the 80%. It's very much pick and choose, get in and get out. I see an opportunity to bet and I'm correct. So I made my unit and I stop. I can sit there and wait for another opportunity and maybe I'll get it maybe I won't. But why would I do that when I already made my goal. I would only do that if I was an addicted gambler and I'm the totally opposite of an addicted gambler. These chances to bet where I do 80% don't come along at every other spin. Often they don't show up at all. Sometimes for days. I hate when that happens.
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Nothing you wrote is believable. Not a word.
A consistent losing player may be convinced that winning is not possible except by luck.
The law of large numbers can be thought of as the law of many losers vs few winners.
In this scenario, all losers are just losers in the long run or over the course of their play ( whatever the consensus is on that term ).
Winners can be divided into various categories including losers who got lucky, and , those consistent long term winners who have mastered their game.
I believe there are long term winning players on this forum whether by advantage play for cash , promo $ and comps or consistently beating their game outright for serious cash and RFB.
Some are well known regular posters.
If there is ever an acceptable challenge to Evenbobs claims , my money is on Evenbob.
Quote: EvenBobHow much gamble do you have? I have almost none. Card counting BJ for a few decades cured me from betting on games where I don't have an edge.
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I realized I didn't even know what the Original Post was in this thread. Going back the part quoted above struck me
EB counted cards at BJ for decades with no edge.
And there you have it. Card counting affords no edge for EB. Only random non-random predictable unpredictable events that are in his mind in the physical world.
Quote: billryan
Nothing you wrote is believable. Not a word.
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The doctor who discovered that washing his hands in between operations saved patients lives was not believed either. In fact they thought he was so full of it they locked him up in an asylum. So guess how I feel about you believing me or not.
Quote: cwwbjr
If there is ever an acceptable challenge to Evenbobs claims , my money is on Evenbob.
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Sadly there probably is not a challenge that is possible outside of a brick and mortar Casino. And even then it would be tedious because it would look like luck, it would have to be done over and over and over to convince anybody that it wasn't luck. The only thing that convinces anybody in the gambling world is winning huge amounts of money over and over and that's never going to happen. Even though it's just as hard to win small amounts of money over and over, large numbers always impress people. Even though Edward Thorp wrote the book on blackjack he still had to go out there and play it and play it until he was banned from every Casino in Nevada before people were really convinced.
Quote: AxelWolf
You could have a situation where you have a huge mathematical advantage, but still be very very likely to lose.
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Then what will be the point of having a huge mathematical advantage if you're very likely to lose anyway. This doesn't make any sense. You people are the ones that make a big deal about the math not me.
Personally, I tend to stay away from those types of situations, but there are people who don't care...as long as they have +EV. Perhaps they have 10s of millions and they just keep investing in risky +EV plays knowing eventually they will come out ahead.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolf
You could have a situation where you have a huge mathematical advantage, but still be very very likely to lose.
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Then what will be the point of having a huge mathematical advantage if you're very likely to lose anyway. This doesn't make any sense. You people are the ones that make a big deal about the math not me.
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I know people willing to invest large amounts of money even when they don't have a very small advantage. If you take a look at big time pro sports bettors they are not working with a big advantage, they would be super lucky to have a 10% advantage on any one bet.
I have Personally nvested in big plays with only a 1% advantage.
Of course I'm banking on getting in volume(many hands/spins/bets) knowing there's a good chance the law of large numbers will kick in.
Give me a 3% advantage on a Video-poker, Bj or many other game's where I can crank out lots of hands ans I'll invest without hesitation.
It all depends on the situation. I wouldn't go bet 50k on a 1 time bet situation with a small advantage..
Give me an 80% hit rate on roulette and I would be willing to invest everything over a small number of spins. No need to worry about going broke because there is like zero chance you couldn't easy make a crap ton of money with that situation. Anyone with half a brain would become stupid rich with an 80 hit rate on any even money bet game.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolf
You could have a situation where you have a huge mathematical advantage, but still be very very likely to lose.
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Then what will be the point of having a huge mathematical advantage if you're very likely to lose anyway. This doesn't make any sense. You people are the ones that make a big deal about the math not me.
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It makes total sense but if you don't get it by now, I'm not explaining it again. Clue. Aggregation
I believe that if a person feels he has a 6% edge - for example - on a certain type of sports bet that there is a way to calculate the probability that he will be ahead after 100 bets or after 200 bets
and that there is also a way to calculate the probability of how likely he will up by that 6% or up by more or up by less or still losing anyway after 100 or 200 bets
unfortunately, I don't have the math skills to make those calculations
maybe somebody here does
.
Quote: OnceDear
It makes total sense but if you don't get it by now, I'm not explaining it again.
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Which means of course that you can't explain it and this is your way of getting out of it. Aren't you glad I unblocked you? LOL
Quote: AxelWolfAnyone with half a brain would become stupid rich with an 80 hit rate
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Because everybody knows that online casinos let you get stupid rich before they cut you off. Everybody that lives in Casino Fantasyland that is.. The truth is you would be cut off long before you got rich, and really long before you got filthy rich.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfAnyone with half a brain would become stupid rich with an 80 hit rate
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Because everybody knows that online casinos let you get stupid rich before they cut you off. Everybody that lives in Casino Fantasyland that is.. The truth is you would be cut off long before you got rich, and really long before you got filthy rich.
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I thought you aren't an addicted gambler?
You seem to value playing for $10 for a few more years (being you are in your seventies) vs. Actually making so much money before you get cut off that you can retire now.
And according to you this is unbeatable. How can they change the online game where you can't make educated guesses? After cleaning up at one casino switch to another.
Besides you already believe one casino has shut you down already. In other words low wagering still didn't stop them right? You have literally nothing but peanuts to show for a casino that shut you down.
The obvious next step is go hard and make hundreds of thousands since they will shut you down just for winning a few hundred anyway. This way you will have something to show for it.
Of course it's difficult to actually win Money with a fantasy system but you claim it works.
Quote: darkoz
After cleaning up at one casino switch to another.
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First of all they're going to stop you long before you can 'clean up' as you put it. And these casinos are all in one state and they all use the same software and if you think they don't talk to each other about potentially troublesome players, you're living in Casino Fantasyland.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: darkoz
After cleaning up at one casino switch to another.
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First of all they're going to stop you long before you can 'clean up' as you put it. And these casinos are all in one state and they all use the same software and if you think they don't talk to each other about potentially troublesome players, you're living in Casino Fantasyland.
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Well I suppose you have nothing to worry about.
Casinos don't shut down fantasy winners
And you can't bullspit a bullspitter! EvenBob tries and it looks like you buy his insane narrative. Welcome to a club of one member.Quote: cwwbjrIt takes a winner to know a winner.
Any fool may be convinced of anything. Some absolute losers can lose their shirts at roulette and convince themselves that they just won. Don't underestimate the power of imagination. But don't overestimate it either. My pet Unicorn Henry imagines that he is a horse, but it doesn't make him a horse.Quote: cwwbjrA consistent losing player may be convinced that winning is not possible except by luck.
pi can be thought of as 3.5, but it is not so.Quote: cwwbjrThe law of large numbers can be thought of as the law of many losers vs few winners.
Quote: cwwbjrIn this scenario, all losers are just losers in the long run or over the course of their play ( whatever the consensus is on that term ).
Winners can be divided into various categories including losers who got lucky, and , those consistent long term winners who have mastered their game.
You can divide winners into as many groups as you see fit. But here's a clue: Don't put Roulette winner, EvenBob into any of those groups. There's a special group for him.
Hey. I agree. Don't put EvenBob into those categories.Quote: cwwbjrI believe there are long term winning players on this forum whether by advantage play for cash , promo $ and comps or consistently beating their game outright for serious cash and RFB.
Some are well known regular posters.
Sadly, EvenBob will never allow such a challenge to occur. But if it did, I'll take you action. If you believe that EB can correctly guess 80% of a significant number of even money bets, or that he once got 42 right in a row, then I have a golden bridge for sale and I'll do you a great deal.Quote:If there is ever an acceptable challenge to Evenbobs claims , my money is on Evenbob.
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Thank you for confirming that there is at least one [insert mildly derogatory noun] on this forum that is [insert mildly derogatory adjective] enough to fall for EvenBob's dangerous nonsense. Great for the casino industry, but not so great for humanity which you just proved to feature some easy marks.Bob claimed some remarkable good luck, we'd accept that. But his claims are out of this universe preposterous. Follow the evidence, not the nonsense.
Quote: billryanIt turns out Wade Garrett was right about this.
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I had to google that
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0098206/characters/nm0000385
But yes, He was very right indeed.
Quote: OnceDearEvenBob will never allow such a challenge to occur.
It cannot occur at an online casino and I'm not going to a brick and mortar Casino cuz it would be pointless.
Quote: OnceDearFollow the evidence
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Of which you have none, except your faulty math that is derived from making random bets against random outcomes and does not apply to what I do. The one thing you cannot say is that you tried this and it does not work. That would be evidence that people would believe but you won't do it because you're terrified that it does work and then where would you be.
Quote: cwwbjr
If there is ever an acceptable challenge to Evenbobs claims , my money is on Evenbob.
there will never ever be a challenge that he accepts
everybody knows that
why not__________?_____________because he can't prove anything
it boggles the mind that there are people who believe nonsensical claims on a gambling forum with absolutely no evidence or proof
at gamblingforums.com there are at least a couple of others who make these kinds of ridiculous, fantastical claims - but none are as outrageously extreme as EB's
and guess what___________they don't provide any proof either
𝙎𝙃𝘼𝙕𝘼𝙈_________𝙎𝙐𝙍𝙋𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙀 𝙎𝙐𝙍𝙋𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙀 𝙎𝙐𝙍𝙋𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙀
the only people who eat this stuff up are desperate, addicted, compulsive gamblers dreaming that they will find a way to recover their massive losses
there is some hope for them - where some of the will end up - they are likely to have some luck - state or local Governments will provide them with food and shelter free of charge - needless to say - their surroundings won't be luxurious
.
Quote: lilredrooster
it boggles the mind that there are people who believe nonsensical claims on a gambling forum with absolutely no evidence or prooflink to original post
There is an easy surefire way to prove that I can't do it and that is to try it yourself. This is been shown over and over again on other gambling forums where people were doubtful until they actually tried doing it and they got the big surprise. It works. But nobody here is willing to do that because they can't afford to have it work because that would evaporate their position of professional naysayer.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: lilredrooster
it boggles the mind that there are people who believe nonsensical claims on a gambling forum with absolutely no evidence or prooflink to original post
There is an easy surefire way to prove that I can't do it and that is to try it yourself. This is been shown over and over again on other gambling forums where people were doubtful until they actually tried doing it and they got the big surprise. It works. But nobody here is willing to do that because they can't afford to have it work because that would evaporate their position of professional naysayer.[
you have an endless supply of absolute nonsense
as far as the posts re gambling that have appeared on this forum
yours are by far the worst_________just terrible________really pathetic and clownish________it's amazing that you have no shame to post and defend such rubbish
.
How vewy sweet that you unblocked me. I guess any attention is valued attention.Quote: EvenBobEvenBob will never allow such a challenge to occur.Quote: OnceDear
It cannot occur at an online casino and I'm not going to a brick and mortar Casino cuz it would be pointless.Quote: OnceDearFollow the evidence
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Of which you have none, except your faulty math that is derived from making random bets against random outcomes and does not apply to what I do. The one thing you cannot say is that you tried this and it does not work. That would be evidence that people would believe but you won't do it because you're terrified that it does work and then where would you be.
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I'm not, We're not laughing with you, but I am, we are laughing indeed.
Thank you for confirming that EvenBob will never allow such a challenge to occur.
Terrified. PMSL. Oh yeah, I'm terrified that under your tutelage I could be shown the error of my ways and become as wise as you, but richer than Croesus.
Fortunately, that won't happen. You give no such tutelage. You give no evidence. You just repeat your yada yada about the Doctor whose name you never quote or the Einstein that was rubbish as math, or whatever other fact you care to abuse.
You want others to disprove that the moon is made of cream cheese. Sorry, dude, we are too busy laughing at your posts.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: EvenBobQuote: lilredrooster
it boggles the mind that there are people who believe nonsensical claims on a gambling forum with absolutely no evidence or prooflink to original post
There is an easy surefire way to prove that I can't do it and that is to try it yourself. This is been shown over and over again on other gambling forums where people were doubtful until they actually tried doing it and they got the big surprise. It works. But nobody here is willing to do that because they can't afford to have it work because that would evaporate their position of professional naysayer.[
you have an endless supply of absolute nonsense
as far as the posts re gambling that have appeared on this forum
yours are by far the worst_________just terrible________really pathetic and clownish________it's amazing that you have no shame to post and defend such rubbish
.
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I still think there should be a rule forbidding EvenBob from using the word 'Math' or the symbol '%'. For him to do so is an insult to anyone that ever used them correctly.