Powerball hits $1 Billion
Quote: rxwineI was actually tempted to go on a Magician's forum to see if anyone there thought there was a way to rig the lottery draw. I've never underestimated the ability of someone figuring, if not an actual edge, some equipment scam, replacement etc.,
I'm pretty sure a bunch of magicians familiar with tricks and illusions could come up with a lottery machine that would look and act real but deliver whatever balls they wanted. Many are even good at tricks which let people examine something and still not see the deception which is even better.
That would hardly be the only obstacle, but just the first.
Of course, one might completely replicate the lottery drawing room, intercept the signal, kidnap the employees, Mission Impossible style... etc., etc,
speculation, Just for fun, just for fun Don't come for me FBI.
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A few decades a go, a well-known mobster here in MA was part of group that won a bunch of money on a lottery ticket. Thinking something was fishy, they closely examined the machine and the balls. They even went as far as weighing the balls to make sure they all weighed the same. The best way would be to get tot he machine and gimmick the balls I'd imagine.
Gene
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: rxwineI was actually tempted to go on a Magician's forum to see if anyone there thought there was a way to rig the lottery draw. I've never underestimated the ability of someone figuring, if not an actual edge, some equipment scam, replacement etc.,
I'm pretty sure a bunch of magicians familiar with tricks and illusions could come up with a lottery machine that would look and act real but deliver whatever balls they wanted. Many are even good at tricks which let people examine something and still not see the deception which is even better.
That would hardly be the only obstacle, but just the first.
Of course, one might completely replicate the lottery drawing room, intercept the signal, kidnap the employees, Mission Impossible style... etc., etc,
speculation, Just for fun, just for fun Don't come for me FBI.
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A few decades a go, a well-known mobster here in MA was part of group that won a bunch of money on a lottery ticket. Thinking something was fishy, they closely examined the machine and the balls. They even went as far as weighing the balls to make sure they all weighed the same. The best way would be to get tot he machine and gimmick the balls I'd imagine.
Gene
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I always thought the best way would be a programmer for the lottery and insert a ticket into the database post drawing.
If I recall correctly there was a software engineer in Iowa that did that for a while. Hmm, I am a software engineer and used to live in Iowa. Why am I broke?
Quote: gamerfreakQuote: GandlerMy view on the lottery is similar as slot machines, terrible way to gamble (and even less fun), however, when the prize reaches a certain threshold, it can be worth trying (not advice, just personal views). I actually bought four lottery (Powerball) tickets today, I think this is the first time I have directly purchased tickets for myself (I did participate in some office pool some years ago I think 2017 where I contributed a few dollars along with everyone else, we won nothing, at least according to the person who was collecting the money and buying the tickets, it may have been just a donation to him for all I know, I do not follow the numbers).
While I will lose (I guess I have a 8ish% -I think- chance of winning at least 2 dollars, math is probably wrong that is off of my head), I have a miniscule chance of winning a large jackpot. If you don't buy tickets your chance of winning is zero, if you do buy tickets your chance is winning is close to zero, but infinitely above zero. I essentially flushed eight dollars down the toilet, but since the jackpot will probably not be this big again for many years if ever, I do not feel too bad with myself. The argument that I would be better off just putting that extra eight dollars into my investment account is valid, and if somebody paid eight dollars a day on lottery tickets it would be even more valid. But, a one-time payment of eight dollars so that I can wake up tomorrow and not see an email confirmation that I won will probably be great mental training to never spend money on a lottery again.
It's like playing a slot machine occasionally you will lose, and you will feel crappy losing however much on the machine, but it will train you not to like slot machines, and you increased your chances of hitting a massive jackpot exponentially (still close to zero, but infinitely above zero).
I still hold my longstanding opinion that the lottery is a scam which should not be played, and am annoyed when people buy physical tickets (especially when you are behind them at a gas station and they are picking tickets one by one like its some kind of science for some reason). But, I am just being honest about my own hypocrisy with the current jackpot.
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When the jackpot gets this high, I’ll typically purchase 1 ticket to take my chances from zero to nearly zero.
I’ve never understood the ire much of this forum has against the lottery vs casino games. I get that the house edge is abysmal, but the amount wagered by the typical lottery player is orders of magnitude lower than the typical casino player. The same posters who love black chip trip reports act like buying a $3 lottery ticket is the stupidest thing a recreational gambler could do.
In PA, I haven’t seen retailers selling tickets from behind the counter in years. It’s all self-serve kiosks.
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Exactly, lotteries increase in value as the top jackpot rises, so if you buy a ticket every few years when it breaches 1 billion (or whatever your personal threshold is), its still a losing bet, but its worth it for the day or two of anticipation (I guess the drawing is actually not until tonight so I will not find out until tomorrow morning that I lost).
Everyone on this forum (except for the100% APs) blow far more than three-eight dollars every time they visit a casino several times a year -or far more- (myself included), so buying a single digit worth of lottery tickets every few years is not that much more unreasonable. Yes, lottery has worse EV than every casino game, etc.... that is not the point.
If you buy lottery tickets daily its a problem (just like going to a casino daily), if you buy them every few years when it breaches one billion, I don't see it as any worse than buying overpriced tickets to some rare fight (or whatever) that is unlikely to happen again.
And, of course there is always the argument that the lottery directly benefits the local government instead of some corporation or a corrupt tribe (not an argument that I massively care about, but its a valid one) -if State governments ran their own casinos like in some countries this would become a moot point, but this is unlikely to happen in the United States for a variety of reasons-.
you got your wish wizard. No winner for Wednesday Nov 2. Saturday estimate 1.5 billionQuote: WizardThe drawing is four hours away (8:00 PM Pacific time). My Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator predicts 1.62 winners with a probability of 80.13% of at least one winner. Again, I hope nobody hits it. I'm all for taxes that somebody else pays.
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Quote: GenoDRPh
A few decades a go, a well-known mobster here in MA was part of group that won a bunch of money on a lottery ticket. Thinking something was fishy, they closely examined the machine and the balls. They even went as far as weighing the balls to make sure they all weighed the same. The best way would be to get tot he machine and gimmick the balls I'd imagine.
Gene
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It has already been done in Pennsylvania in 1980. They got someone who was good with art lettering to make duplicate balls then put just enough paint in all but the 4 and 6 balls so only those combos would win. The drawing was done at the TV station not at some lottery secured area and thus while it was secured security was lax enough to make the switch and the switch back.
I have been told that these days they have a couple "practice" draws before the regular draw to help ferret out this sort of scam.
Quote: avianrandyyou got your wish wizard. No winner for Wednesday Nov 2. Saturday estimate 1.5 billion
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Yes! As I recall, that is the previous advertised record, right?
actually that would be the third largest. Powerball hit 1.586 billion in2016. Mega millions 1.537 billionin2018. Very possible this one may break the record. Odds of winning mega millions 1:302,575,350 by the wayQuote: WizardQuote: avianrandyyou got your wish wizard. No winner for Wednesday Nov 2. Saturday estimate 1.5 billion
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Yes! As I recall, that is the previous advertised record, right?
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Quote: avianrandyactually that would be the third largest. Powerball hit 1.586 billion in2016. Mega millions 1.537 billionin2018. Very possible this one may break the record. Odds of winning mega millions 1:302,575,350 by the way
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Usually, the advertised jackpot gets adjusted only after a drawing. However, I seem to recall sometimes it goes up mid-week. Maybe that is Mega Millions only?
While this isn't the largest advertised jackpot, right now, the actual jackpot could be the biggest, given that the $1.5 billion is only an estimate.
Quote: rsactuaryExcept it's all a lie. The cash value option is no where near a record.
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Some people choose the annuity option.
There is a way to win the Powerball jackpot with 100% certainty. In fact, there's a way to guarantee a jackpot win for all the games in which numbers are drawn but only if the jackpot amount makes it worth the effort, time and money.Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: GenoDRPh
A few decades a go, a well-known mobster here in MA was part of group that won a bunch of money on a lottery ticket. Thinking something was fishy, they closely examined the machine and the balls. They even went as far as weighing the balls to make sure they all weighed the same. The best way would be to get tot he machine and gimmick the balls I'd imagine.
Gene
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It has already been done in Pennsylvania in 1980. They got someone who was good with art lettering to make duplicate balls then put just enough paint in all but the 4 and 6 balls so only those combos would win. The drawing was done at the TV station not at some lottery secured area and thus while it was secured security was lax enough to make the switch and the switch back.
I have been told that these days they have a couple "practice" draws before the regular draw to help ferret out this sort of scam.
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One would have to buy every conceivable combination there is (yes, all 292,201,338 of them).
Assuming one has the money to accomplish this, one would still need a lot of physical lottery terminals and/or a whole lot of effort spent on Jackpocket, not to mention every conceivable second of time before the drawing, to pull this off.
Assuming this practically impossible feat is accomplished, there's that pesky withholding to subtract that will cut into the profit, if any.
There's also the very real possibility one would have to share the jackpot with multiple strangers that also won but by luck, further cutting into any profit.
If one tried using team effort and has a loyal group of people and bankroll that both number into the hundreds of millions, it can be done. But then, assuming you solved the problem of the lack of enough time to pull this off, one would have to share the winnings with said group. And then everybody would ask, "Was this small share of money even worth it?"
Quote: FTBThere is a way to win the Powerball jackpot with 100% certainty. In fact, there's a way to guarantee a jackpot win for all the games in which numbers are drawn but only if the jackpot amount makes it worth the effort, time and money.Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: GenoDRPh
A few decades a go, a well-known mobster here in MA was part of group that won a bunch of money on a lottery ticket. Thinking something was fishy, they closely examined the machine and the balls. They even went as far as weighing the balls to make sure they all weighed the same. The best way would be to get tot he machine and gimmick the balls I'd imagine.
Gene
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It has already been done in Pennsylvania in 1980. They got someone who was good with art lettering to make duplicate balls then put just enough paint in all but the 4 and 6 balls so only those combos would win. The drawing was done at the TV station not at some lottery secured area and thus while it was secured security was lax enough to make the switch and the switch back.
I have been told that these days they have a couple "practice" draws before the regular draw to help ferret out this sort of scam.
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One would have to buy every conceivable combination there is (yes, all 292,201,338 of them).
Assuming one has the money to accomplish this, one would still need a lot of physical lottery terminals and/or a whole lot of effort spent on Jackpocket, not to mention every conceivable second of time before the drawing, to pull this off.
Assuming this practically impossible feat is accomplished, there's that pesky withholding to subtract that will cut into the profit, if any.
There's also the very real possibility one would have to share the jackpot with multiple strangers that also won but by luck, further cutting into any profit.
If one tried using team effort and has a loyal group of people and bankroll that both number into the hundreds of millions, it can be done. But then, assuming you solved the problem of the lack of enough time to pull this off, one would have to share the winnings with said group. And then everybody would ask, "Was this small share of money even worth it?"
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This has actually happened twice in history (probably more, but that is what I know of in my head), West Virginia and Ireland, there was a period (I think 90s for both) that certain lotteries in those States/Countries would routinely hit a level that the value of the prize and all subprizes would exceed the cost of buying every combo, so a group of investors would just buy out every combo (which must have been hard to do by hand before you could just type the numbers online). In both cases it led to an adjustment of the prize structure and/or the total numbers drawn.
I actually learned this in High School in a Stats class textbook in one of the real-world examples sections (that is about the extent of the details that I recall from my head).
For example, if Powerball tickets were only one dollar each, buying 292 million combos would be profitable currently -and for the last several drawings- (even with the expected taxes). Even if somebody else wins the jackpot as well (which cuts the jackpot in half -I think, I don't know the rules perfectly-), with all of the subprizes that you would hit on other tickets it would still be profitable at the current level (assuming one-dollar tickets).
Quote: GandlerFor example, if Powerball tickets were only one dollar each, buying 292 million combos would be profitable currently -and for the last several drawings- (even with the expected taxes). Even if somebody else wins the jackpot as well (which cuts the jackpot in half -I think, I don't know the rules perfectly-), with all of the subprizes that you would hit on other tickets it would still be profitable at the current level (assuming one-dollar tickets).
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That's true IF they cost $1. However, they cost $2. Let's do the math under the correct price.
Based on previous ticket sales by jackpot amount, I estimate the public will buy 587.87 million tickets for the next drawing. There are 292,201,338 possible combinations.
The following table shows the probability of 0 to 20 other winners. The right column shows your expected jackpot share. The bottom right cell shows you can expect to receive 43.06% of the jackpot, after sharing it with other winners.
| Other winners | Probability | Share | Expected share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.133739 | 1.000000 | 0.133739 |
| 1 | 0.269065 | 0.500000 | 0.134532 |
| 2 | 0.270661 | 0.333333 | 0.090220 |
| 3 | 0.181511 | 0.250000 | 0.045378 |
| 4 | 0.091294 | 0.200000 | 0.018259 |
| 5 | 0.036734 | 0.166667 | 0.006122 |
| 6 | 0.012317 | 0.142857 | 0.001760 |
| 7 | 0.003540 | 0.125000 | 0.000443 |
| 8 | 0.000890 | 0.111111 | 0.000099 |
| 9 | 0.000199 | 0.100000 | 0.000020 |
| 10 | 0.000040 | 0.090909 | 0.000004 |
| 11 | 0.000007 | 0.083333 | 0.000001 |
| 12 | 0.000001 | 0.076923 | 0.000000 |
| 13 | 0.000000 | 0.071429 | 0.000000 |
| 14 | 0.000000 | 0.066667 | 0.000000 |
| 15 | 0.000000 | 0.062500 | 0.000000 |
| 16 | 0.000000 | 0.058824 | 0.000000 |
| 17 | 0.000000 | 0.055556 | 0.000000 |
| 18 | 0.000000 | 0.052632 | 0.000000 |
| 19 | 0.000000 | 0.050000 | 0.000000 |
| 20 | 0.000000 | 0.047619 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 1.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.430576 |
The cash option for the jackpot is $745.9 million. So, you can expect $321.2 million after jackpot sharing.
The value of the fixed wins from every combination is $80.7 million. So, your total win will be $401.8 million.
However, the cost of buying every combination at $2 a ticket is $584.4 million.
The expected return is $401.8/$584.4 = 68.76%.
I emphasize that is without considering taxes.
Thanks!!! But the jackpot increases as the betting pool increases. For most drawings there is no intra-drawing increase in the jackpot because the tickets purchased during the few days between drawings are not enough to impact the jackpot, but that's not usually the case when the jackpots become huge. Right now, the jackpot is 1.5 Billion, but by the time of the drawing it will probably be higher. Doesn't the analysis need to consider the potential jackpot growth if 587 million tickets are purchased for the next drawing?Quote: WizardQuote: GandlerFor example, if Powerball tickets were only one dollar each, buying 292 million combos would be profitable currently -and for the last several drawings- (even with the expected taxes). Even if somebody else wins the jackpot as well (which cuts the jackpot in half -I think, I don't know the rules perfectly-), with all of the subprizes that you would hit on other tickets it would still be profitable at the current level (assuming one-dollar tickets).
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That's true IF they cost $1. However, they cost $2. Let's do the math under the correct price.
Based on previous ticket sales by jackpot amount, I estimate the public will buy 587.87 million tickets for the next drawing. There are 292,201,338 possible combinations.
The following table shows the probability of 0 to 20 other winners. The right column shows your expected jackpot share. The bottom right cell shows you can expect to receive 43.06% of the jackpot, after sharing it with other winners.
Other winners Probability Share Expected share 0 0.133739 1.000000 0.133739 1 0.269065 0.500000 0.134532 2 0.270661 0.333333 0.090220 3 0.181511 0.250000 0.045378 4 0.091294 0.200000 0.018259 5 0.036734 0.166667 0.006122 6 0.012317 0.142857 0.001760 7 0.003540 0.125000 0.000443 8 0.000890 0.111111 0.000099 9 0.000199 0.100000 0.000020 10 0.000040 0.090909 0.000004 11 0.000007 0.083333 0.000001 12 0.000001 0.076923 0.000000 13 0.000000 0.071429 0.000000 14 0.000000 0.066667 0.000000 15 0.000000 0.062500 0.000000 16 0.000000 0.058824 0.000000 17 0.000000 0.055556 0.000000 18 0.000000 0.052632 0.000000 19 0.000000 0.050000 0.000000 20 0.000000 0.047619 0.000000 Total 1.000000 0.000000 0.430576
The cash option for the jackpot is $745.9 million. So, you can expect $321.2 million after jackpot sharing.
The value of the fixed wins from every combination is $80.7 million. So, your total win will be $401.8 million.
However, the cost of buying every combination at $2 a ticket is $584.4 million.
The expected return is $401.8/$584.4 = 68.76%.
I emphasize that is without considering taxes.
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Quote: UP84Thanks!!! But the jackpot increases as the betting pool increases. For most drawings there is no intra-drawing increase in the jackpot because the tickets purchased during the few days between drawings are not enough to impact the jackpot, but that's not usually the case when the jackpots become huge. Right now, the jackpot is 1.5 Billion, but by the time of the drawing it will probably be higher. Doesn't the analysis need to consider the potential jackpot growth if 587 million tickets are purchased for the next drawing?
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That is a good point!
It looks like the contribution rate is 72%, but I need to verify that. That money goes to the big number, what I'll call the gross jackpot, not the cash-value number. So, after you purchased every combination, the gross jackpot would increase to 1.92 billion (from 1.5). I'll be kind and assume that does not induce extra demand from other players, as if you could buy all 292 million tickets at the last minute.
After reducing that for the lump sum and jackpot sharing, you can expect to win 411.26 from the jackpot. Remember the 80.7 million from fixed wins.
Bottom line is after adjusting for the increased jackpot from your own ticket sales, the RTP goes up to 84.18% before taxes.
Quote: UP84Right now, the jackpot is 1.5 Billion, but by the time of the drawing it will probably be higher.
I don't believe that is true. The jackpot is not $1.5 Billion now, it is estimated to be $1.5 by the time of the drawing.
Quote: WizardQuote: GandlerFor example, if Powerball tickets were only one dollar each, buying 292 million combos would be profitable currently -and for the last several drawings- (even with the expected taxes). Even if somebody else wins the jackpot as well (which cuts the jackpot in half -I think, I don't know the rules perfectly-), with all of the subprizes that you would hit on other tickets it would still be profitable at the current level (assuming one-dollar tickets).
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That's true IF they cost $1. However, they cost $2. Let's do the math under the correct price.
Based on previous ticket sales by jackpot amount, I estimate the public will buy 587.87 million tickets for the next drawing. There are 292,201,338 possible combinations.
The following table shows the probability of 0 to 20 other winners. The right column shows your expected jackpot share. The bottom right cell shows you can expect to receive 43.06% of the jackpot, after sharing it with other winners.
Other winners Probability Share Expected share 0 0.133739 1.000000 0.133739 1 0.269065 0.500000 0.134532 2 0.270661 0.333333 0.090220 3 0.181511 0.250000 0.045378 4 0.091294 0.200000 0.018259 5 0.036734 0.166667 0.006122 6 0.012317 0.142857 0.001760 7 0.003540 0.125000 0.000443 8 0.000890 0.111111 0.000099 9 0.000199 0.100000 0.000020 10 0.000040 0.090909 0.000004 11 0.000007 0.083333 0.000001 12 0.000001 0.076923 0.000000 13 0.000000 0.071429 0.000000 14 0.000000 0.066667 0.000000 15 0.000000 0.062500 0.000000 16 0.000000 0.058824 0.000000 17 0.000000 0.055556 0.000000 18 0.000000 0.052632 0.000000 19 0.000000 0.050000 0.000000 20 0.000000 0.047619 0.000000 Total 1.000000 0.000000 0.430576
The cash option for the jackpot is $745.9 million. So, you can expect $321.2 million after jackpot sharing.
The value of the fixed wins from every combination is $80.7 million. So, your total win will be $401.8 million.
However, the cost of buying every combination at $2 a ticket is $584.4 million.
The expected return is $401.8/$584.4 = 68.76%.
I emphasize that is without considering taxes.
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I know it vastly varies (based on number sold), but how many more cycles would the jackpot have to rollover to make buying a Powerball ticket +EV?
To keep it simple, let's assume a 200 million increase each no jackpot drawing (I don't know if that is the norm, but that is approximately the increase of the last few, vastly rounding, it seems to increase a lot higher as the jackpot gets higher -presumably because more people become interested- , but to be conservative and keep it flat even if it likely will be exponentially increased), the next drawing is about 1.5b, so three more no jackpot drawings should make it 2.1-2.2ishb which gets into +EV range? If the top jackpot breaches 2 billion should it make buying a Powerball +EV?
I guess the straightforward question is what top jackpot (when factoring sub prizes) would turn a Powerball ticket into +EV territory (from my admittedly hazy off my head math it should be in the 2b+ range for top jackpot)? And, I know this all changes (mostly gets worse) if you buy the "powerplay multipler" for an extra dollar, and whatever other things are sold, but assuming a flat two-dollar ticket with no side bets so to speak.
https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
No. The jackpot is 1.5 billion now. The final jackpot is never LOWER than the published "estimated" amount. The "estimated" amount is based on the rollover jackpot and the most recent total sales (not that much since it's only Day 1 in the drawing cycle), and is a lower bound to the actual payout. The jackpot will definitely increase by Saturday.Quote: DRichQuote: UP84Right now, the jackpot is 1.5 Billion, but by the time of the drawing it will probably be higher.
I don't believe that is true. The jackpot is not $1.5 Billion now, it is estimated to be $1.5 by the time of the drawing.
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Quote: Wizard
Bottom line is after adjusting for the increased jackpot from your own ticket sales, the RTP goes up to 84.18% before taxes.
How many losing combinations would you end up purchasing? You'd be able to offset your winnings with those losing tickets for at least federal tax purposes.
Quote: rsactuaryQuote: Wizard
Bottom line is after adjusting for the increased jackpot from your own ticket sales, the RTP goes up to 84.18% before taxes.
How many losing combinations would you end up purchasing? You'd be able to offset your winnings with those losing tickets for at least federal tax purposes.
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If you set it up as an LLC, you could deduct a lot more than the losing tickets.
Even if you could deduct the full amount of your win (which I imagine is the maximum deduction), it doesn’t matter since all calculations show a return of well under 100% before considering taxes.Quote: rsactuaryQuote: Wizard
Bottom line is after adjusting for the increased jackpot from your own ticket sales, the RTP goes up to 84.18% before taxes.
How many losing combinations would you end up purchasing? You'd be able to offset your winnings with those losing tickets for at least federal tax purposes.
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Quote: Ace2Even if you could deduct the full amount of your win (which I imagine is the maximum deduction), it doesn’t matter since all calculations show a return of well under 100% before considering taxes.Quote: rsactuaryQuote: Wizard
Bottom line is after adjusting for the increased jackpot from your own ticket sales, the RTP goes up to 84.18% before taxes.
How many losing combinations would you end up purchasing? You'd be able to offset your winnings with those losing tickets for at least federal tax purposes.
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If you get 150 investors to fund you in return for 5% each, you will be able to afford your escape jet.
Please elaborate. If there’s a way to make money off this then why hasn’t a group of investors done it ?Quote: billryan
If you get 150 investors to fund you in return for 5% each, you will be able to afford your escape jet.
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Quote: Ace2Please elaborate. If there’s a way to make money off this then why hasn’t a group of investors done it ?Quote: billryan
If you get 150 investors to fund you in return for 5% each, you will be able to afford your escape jet.
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First you somehow manage to place bets on the Powerball not winning on a certain date. Then you buy up all the possible combinations, so it does win on that date.
That way you collect two ways.
Quote: rxwineQuote: Ace2Please elaborate. If there’s a way to make money off this then why hasn’t a group of investors done it ?Quote: billryan
If you get 150 investors to fund you in return for 5% each, you will be able to afford your escape jet.
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First you somehow manage to place bets on the Powerball not winning on a certain date. Then you buy up all the possible combinations, so it does win on that date.
That way you collect two ways.
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Typo. You mean you bet on ‘powerball winning’, NOT on ‘powerball not winning’.
Quote: rxwineOf course, you still have a major problem if there is another winner.
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Not at all. My math takes all of that into account. I need 150 investors who will each put up their share in return for 5% of the prize.
Quote: Ace2Please elaborate. If there’s a way to make money off this then why hasn’t a group of investors done it ?Quote: billryan
If you get 150 investors to fund you in return for 5% each, you will be able to afford your escape jet.
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We don't know it hasn't been done, do we?
Quote: unJonI bought $20 worth yesterday. It’s an equivalent expected loss ($10) as playing 20 hands of basic strategy blackjack at $100. Call that 30 min of play.
I’m having more fun yesterday and today daydreaming about spending 9 figures of cash than playing BJ for 30 min.
I don’t see why one of these is more silly than another.
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Exactly.
Put down $100 for one hand of Baccarat that lasts 10 seconds and no one bats an eye.
Put down $2 for a lottery ticket that gets you hyped up for a day or two and suddenly you're an idiot with zero financial sense who's being scammed by the government.
Using Bernie Madoff mathQuote: billryanQuote: rxwineOf course, you still have a major problem if there is another winner.
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Not at all. My math takes all of that into account. I need 150 investors who will each put up their share in return for 5% of the prize.
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Quote: rsactuaryI guess, yes, a slight advantage? Because if you cashed both in the same year, the entire second ticket would be taxed at the highest bracket, whereas if you waited a small portion of it would be taxed at the lower levels.
However, you could invest it in T-bills and earn more interest than you would get with the tax break pretty quickly, I would think.
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Let's see, you win say $600 million take home and you are looking to invest is some interest-bearing vehicle? Why, to pay more taxes or increase the size of your estate? You do realize that if one does not spend it all somehow, the IRS will tax your remainder estate through the federal estate tax laws. That tax rate starts at 55%, I believe.
tuttigym
Quote: WizardDid anyone hit it? The Powerball web site seems to be down.
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On Wednesday's drawing, I got three numbers. So, I guess I get half the jackpot, right?
tuttigym
Quote: WizardDid anyone hit it? The Powerball web site seems to be down.
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On Wednesday's drawing, I got three numbers. So, I guess I get half the jackpot, right?
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Please elaborate. If there’s a way to make money off this then why hasn’t a group of investors done it ?Quote: billryan
If you get 150 investors to fund you in return for 5% each, you will be able to afford your escape jet.
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A really insightful question, Ace.
1. Who fills out the Lotto forms?
2. How can one make sure that every combination is presented in the Lotto forms?
3. Who carries the filled-out forms to a Lotto vendor? I assume that would be several thousands of lbs. of paper.
4. Which vendor is going to spend days getting the tickets printed? How long for the totality of the printing of the tickets?
5. Which Lotto ticket machine has enough ink to print those ticket or can print them all without any sort of mechanical breakdown.
6. Who walks around with $292+ million in cash to pay for the tickets?
7. I am sure there are other logistical problems, but why list them.
tuttigym
Quote: GeneDRPh
What if I take the winnings in the annuity?
Two considerations:
1. It is a 20-year differed annual payout, so one would lose, in simple terms, 20 years of interest earnings of the lump sum, and based on one's age, the winner might not live to see to total payout.
2. Based on some prevailing thought, climate change will wipe us out in less than 20 years.
tuttigym
They hate it when the Jackpot is so big.
They spend all their time driving around the state making sure that the Lottery terminals are working and that the vendors don't run out of paper to print the tickets.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: WizardDid anyone hit it? The Powerball web site seems to be down.
link to original post
On Wednesday's drawing, I got three numbers. So, I guess I get half the jackpot, right?
tuttigym
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Three numbers is worth $7 on a $2 ticket.
I don't think I'd want to win the whole shebang. It would be a nightmare on so many levels. Hitting five numbers, minus the Powerball, is worth a million. That would be plenty for me.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: rsactuaryI guess, yes, a slight advantage? Because if you cashed both in the same year, the entire second ticket would be taxed at the highest bracket, whereas if you waited a small portion of it would be taxed at the lower levels.
However, you could invest it in T-bills and earn more interest than you would get with the tax break pretty quickly, I would think.
link to original post
Let's see, you win say $600 million take home and you are looking to invest is some interest-bearing vehicle? Why, to pay more taxes or increase the size of your estate? You do realize that if one does not spend it all somehow, the IRS will tax your remainder estate through the federal estate tax laws. That tax rate starts at 55%, I believe.
tuttigym
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Federal Estate Taxes no where near 55%: https://www.investopedia.com/estate-tax-exemption-2021-definition-5114715
That's why it's important to have a trust or trusts claim the prize and handle the money year over year. Lots of tax benefits to that, as well as anonymity.
Gene
Quote: tuttigymQuote: GeneDRPh
What if I take the winnings in the annuity?
Two considerations:
1. It is a 20-year differed annual payout, so one would lose, in simple terms, 20 years of interest earnings of the lump sum, and based on one's age, the winner might not live to see to total payout.
2. Based on some prevailing thought, climate change will wipe us out in less than 20 years.
tuttigym
link to original post
Pay out over 30 years, actually. The question was asked in relation to how many fo'ties of OE 400 the annuity would get you, but I get your gist.
If I win, I know how I;m going to claim the money.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: tuttigymQuote: WizardDid anyone hit it? The Powerball web site seems to be down.
link to original post
On Wednesday's drawing, I got three numbers. So, I guess I get half the jackpot, right?
tuttigym
link to original post
Three numbers is worth $7 on a $2 ticket.
I don't think I'd want to win the whole shebang. It would be a nightmare on so many levels. Hitting five numbers, minus the Powerball, is worth a million. That would be plenty for me.
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Should I spend it in one place or should I take the annuity?
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Using Bernie Madoff mathQuote: billryanQuote: rxwineOf course, you still have a major problem if there is another winner.
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Not at all. My math takes all of that into account. I need 150 investors who will each put up their share in return for 5% of the prize.
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Madoff was a piker. Think Max Bialystock.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: tuttigymQuote: rsactuaryI guess, yes, a slight advantage? Because if you cashed both in the same year, the entire second ticket would be taxed at the highest bracket, whereas if you waited a small portion of it would be taxed at the lower levels.
However, you could invest it in T-bills and earn more interest than you would get with the tax break pretty quickly, I would think.
link to original post
Let's see, you win say $600 million take home and you are looking to invest is some interest-bearing vehicle? Why, to pay more taxes or increase the size of your estate? You do realize that if one does not spend it all somehow, the IRS will tax your remainder estate through the federal estate tax laws. That tax rate starts at 55%, I believe.
tuttigym
link to original post
Federal Estate Taxes no where near 55%: https://www.investopedia.com/estate-tax-exemption-2021-definition-5114715
That's why it's important to have a trust or trusts claim the prize and handle the money year over year. Lots of tax benefits to that, as well as anonymity.
Gene
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Gene, The first $12+ mil is exempt after which anything over $1 mil is taxed at 40% federally, but there can be state estate taxes on top.
Your take on trusts is not accurate. What you are thinking about is a foundation. Trusts, i.e., living revocable type, are a means to transfer assets in an estate or entity directly without a court intervening. If there are stand-alone trusts that invest and make money, they must file tax returns just like an individual or business.
That is why one must, IMO, have a personal A B living trust to avoid probate and transfer assets to heirs in a really short period of time.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigym
7. I am sure there are other logistical problems, but why list them.
tuttigym
link to original post
A quick, back-of the envelope estimate of the "other logistical problems" suggests about 15 million pounds of paper for a 5 pick slip.
I'm assuming that this gets doubled when considering the tickets.
I estimate that to be about 350 trucks for the slips, plus more for the tickets.
I think you need a team of at least 7500 people to even come close to getting the money down.
Quote: DieterQuote: tuttigym
7. I am sure there are other logistical problems, but why list them.
tuttigym
link to original post
A quick, back-of the envelope estimate of the "other logistical problems" suggests about 15 million pounds of paper for a 5 pick slip.
I'm assuming that this gets doubled when considering the tickets.
I estimate that to be about 350 trucks for the slips, plus more for the tickets.
I think you need a team of at least 7500 people to even come close to getting the money down.
link to original post
They all should have really good medical insurance to pay for the hernia operations, pulled muscles, and the like.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: DieterQuote: tuttigym
7. I am sure there are other logistical problems, but why list them.
tuttigym
link to original post
A quick, back-of the envelope estimate of the "other logistical problems" suggests about 15 million pounds of paper for a 5 pick slip.
I'm assuming that this gets doubled when considering the tickets.
I estimate that to be about 350 trucks for the slips, plus more for the tickets.
I think you need a team of at least 7500 people to even come close to getting the money down.
link to original post
They all should have really good medical insurance to pay for the hernia operations, pulled muscles, and the like.
tuttigym
link to original post
Save your back - Lift with your knees.
Best of luck! -D
Quote: tuttigymQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: tuttigymQuote: rsactuaryI guess, yes, a slight advantage? Because if you cashed both in the same year, the entire second ticket would be taxed at the highest bracket, whereas if you waited a small portion of it would be taxed at the lower levels.
However, you could invest it in T-bills and earn more interest than you would get with the tax break pretty quickly, I would think.
link to original post
Let's see, you win say $600 million take home and you are looking to invest is some interest-bearing vehicle? Why, to pay more taxes or increase the size of your estate? You do realize that if one does not spend it all somehow, the IRS will tax your remainder estate through the federal estate tax laws. That tax rate starts at 55%, I believe.
tuttigym
link to original post
Federal Estate Taxes no where near 55%: https://www.investopedia.com/estate-tax-exemption-2021-definition-5114715
That's why it's important to have a trust or trusts claim the prize and handle the money year over year. Lots of tax benefits to that, as well as anonymity.
Gene
link to original post
Gene, The first $12+ mil is exempt after which anything over $1 mil is taxed at 40% federally, but there can be state estate taxes on top.
Your take on trusts is not accurate. What you are thinking about is a foundation. Trusts, i.e., living revocable type, are a means to transfer assets in an estate or entity directly without a court intervening. If there are stand-alone trusts that invest and make money, they must file tax returns just like an individual or business.
That is why one must, IMO, have a personal A B living trust to avoid probate and transfer assets to heirs in a really short period of time.
tuttigym
link to original post
Lots of people claim lottery prizes in the name of a trust. Happens all the time. Keeps the winners name from being public. can be used a workaround from the IRS gift maximum, and lots of other benefits both financial and practical. Lottery winnings in the name of trust also avoid any estate taxes. There are other types of trusts than a living revocable trust. Talk to any lawyer and they'll confirm what I said.
Gene
