Powerball hits $1 Billion
Quote: Ace2It’s like a 50 million dollar jackpot isn’t worth the time for many people but a billion dollar jackpot is.
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It isn't, for me. I usually only buy tickets when it starts hitting the news cycle. You gotta have a cutoff somewhere, or else you're buying tickets every single day.
$50 million might cover your health insurance thoughQuote: DRich
I couldn't even buy the one jet I want for $50 million.
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Quote: Ace2$50 million might cover your health insurance thoughQuote: DRich
I couldn't even buy the one jet I want for $50 million.
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Maybe not. I am getting older and prices are going up.
Monday: 11.39
Wednesday: 14.37
Saturday: 18.97
Quote: WizardHere are Powerball average number of tickets sold (in millions) by day of the drawing, since they switched to the Mon/Wed/Sat format on 8/23/21. I did not include those drawings on Oct 26 and after, when the jackpot was over $100 million.
Monday: 11.39
Wednesday: 14.37
Saturday: 18.97
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That would be more useful if we knew the weekly sales before. did weekly sales increase 25% 50? Did Monday simply takes sales from other days?
Quote: Ace2I’m always surprised how much ticket sales increase in times like these. It’s like a 50 million dollar jackpot isn’t worth the time for many people but a billion dollar jackpot is.
For me there would be no difference between 50 million and a billion dollars. It’s more money than I could ever spend and I’d end up gifting/donating most of it
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Seriously? If you actually believe $50 million is all you would need, you don’t have 19 friends/relatives/ causes that you wouldn’t like giving $50 million each too?
I am NOT saying a billion is 20 times as good a win for me as $50 million, but with a billion I have a much larger cadre of friends and family I could eliminate any money concerns for than if I won ‘only’ $50 million.
Quote: billryanQuote: WizardHere are Powerball average number of tickets sold (in millions) by day of the drawing, since they switched to the Mon/Wed/Sat format on 8/23/21. I did not include those drawings on Oct 26 and after, when the jackpot was over $100 million.
Monday: 11.39
Wednesday: 14.37
Saturday: 18.97
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That would be more useful if we knew the weekly sales before. did weekly sales increase 25% 50? Did Monday simply takes sales from other days?
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Turns out jackpot fatigue is a thing...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/07/business/history-of-powerball-lottery
According to the California Lottery, Monday’s drawing has been delayed “due to participating lottery needing extra time to complete the required security protocols.”
Well, on Monday night, Powerball's website showed technical difficulties, and the Twitterverse was reacting. Normally, drawings are held at 11 p.m. EST Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. But a notice online said "results pending." At 10:59 p.m., the tweets were flying about the delay.
Ironically, this drawing with the record jackpot was scheduled the night before Election Day.
Over Labor Day Weekend, I participated in something called "3 Day Novel" where you write a 30,000 word novella about anything, starting 00:01 Saturday morning and finish Monday at 23:59. The best novella gets a publishing contract. My theme was exactly this topic. The lottery winner decided to hire a lawyer to be his front agent. He was the one to hand out the money. He's also the one who had to deal with death threats, kidnapping issues, etc, etc, while the winner lived a nice, comfortable, anonymous life.Quote: billryan{snip}
I don't dream about winning the lottery, but I do wonder about the responsibilities and obligations that go with it.
How much would I share with family and friends? Winning a million or two is one thing, but winning 1.9 billion? You could hand out $100 bills to everyone you meet, live off the interest, and never touch the principal.
I think I'd rather win $5 million than $1.9 billion. I don't need or want that kind of power.
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We'll see if I win the competition sometime next year.
0130 on Tue morning and Powerball still hasn't had the drawing. I do like how they've gone to super-minimal single-page website content. Maybe their site won't crash this time...
"Our rigging plan failed, we need more time to get this right."Quote: rsactuarydrawing delayed due to technical issues
According to the California Lottery, Monday’s drawing has been delayed “due to participating lottery needing extra time to complete the required security protocols.”
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Questions I have:
1.) Why not release which state is causing the delay?
2.) Why not announce a new time and date for the drawing? Certainly this can't take that long such that a time cannot be committed to.
3.) Are they going to kick the drawing to Wednesday (or even Saturday) and reopen sales?
Quote: Mission146This is the least transparent thing I've ever heard of; not that I am surprised.
Questions I have:
1.) Why not release which state is causing the delay?
2.) Why not announce a new time and date for the drawing? Certainly this can't take that long such that a time cannot be committed to.
3.) Are they going to kick the drawing to Wednesday (or even Saturday) and reopen sales?
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Axel answered these questions in his one sentence post above.
Quote: WizardIt would seem I need to update my Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales Calculator. People don't seem to be playing it as much as they used to.
For example, on 6/1/2019 the jackpot was at $345 million and the number of tickets sold were 27.8 million.
By comparison, on 10/5/22 the jackpot was at $353 million and the number of tickets sold were 13.0 million.
This table shows the recent jackpot sales and my estimates, which I admit are way too high. I'll redo my demand equations after the jackpot hits.
All figures are in millions.
Date Jackpot (mil) Ticket Sales (actual) Ticket Sales (estimated) 11/05/22 (S) 1600 279.27 617.48 11/02/22 (W) 1200 183.09 472.12 10/31/22 (M) 1000 131.66 379.99 10/29/22 (S) 825 98.54 282.78 10/26/22 (W) 700 55.69 199.76 10/24/22 (M) 625 33.39 142.50 10/22/22 (S) 580 35.23 104.74 10/19/22 (W) 508 23.02 75.00 10/17/22 (M) 480 15.23 66.18 10/15/22 (S) 454 24.91 58.92 10/12/22 (W) 420 16.34 50.61 10/10/22 (M) 401 11.79 46.49 10/08/22 (S) 378 19.12 41.95 10/05/22 (W) 353 12.97 37.52
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Thanks for the chart. It is, for me, really informative and eye opening. I did not realize that the numbers of ticket sales were so low. The 11/5 sales still leave approximately 13 million possible combinations, if all the others are different, available to be drawn. The 11/2 drawing had almost 40% of possible combinations available assuming there were no duplicate tickets. Those numbers in and of itself create an even larger disparity for possible non-winning. I, personally, am quite shocked at the actual lack of participation.
tuttigym
I see there is a new Powerball side bet available in 14 states and territories called the Double Play. The Double Play drawing is held 30 minutes after the Powerball drawing. The rules are the same with 69 white balls and 26 red balls.
I just added an analysis to my Powerball page. The bottom line is an expected return of 53.43%, which is a better value than the Powerball by itself most of the time.
p.s. Powerball sales data can be found here.
Patch (Across Illinois) reports no winners, but they could be basing their reporting off of Tri-State Homepage, who itself cited the Powerball's Twitter (they thought---it actually isn't) and a report that Twitter account made linking to Powerball's webpage (which actually isn't Powerball's Official website). LOL
The actual Powerball website appears to be almost totally broken, at the moment.
This is just delightful for me.
Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
Quote: Wizard
I just added an analysis to my Powerball page. The bottom line is an expected return of 53.43%, which is a better value than the Powerball by itself most of the time.
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Regarding this:
Quote:Mathematically speaking, the Powerball is an awful bet. After considering the Lottery's cut, jackpot sharing, the annuity, and taxes, the expected return never gets much above 40%.
Does that apply ONLY for the jackpot, or is that the expected return for winning ANYTHING on a Powerball ticket?
Quote: Mission146Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
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Wow.
Quote: Mission146Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
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My sister lives in CA and plays. I will ask her if she had the winning ticket and let y'all know.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Mission146Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
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My sister lives in CA and plays. I will ask her if she had the winning ticket and let y'all know.
tuttigym
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The best thing about a California winner is they get to pay $130 million in state taxes on top of their $370 million in federal income tax.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Mission146Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
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My sister lives in CA and plays. I will ask her if she had the winning ticket and let y'all know.
tuttigym
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Spoiler: She didn't.
Quote: DRichQuote: tuttigymQuote: Mission146Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
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My sister lives in CA and plays. I will ask her if she had the winning ticket and let y'all know.
tuttigym
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The best thing about a California winner is they get to pay $130 million in state taxes on top of their $370 million in federal income tax.
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Which, correct me if I am mistaken, is a swing of approximately 130M compared to if the winner lived in Nevada.
That said, the winner may well live in Nevada as not only does the state not have lottery tickets, but the winner announcement is based on the state wherein the ticket was sold, so it could be a Nevada (or, technically, anywhere else) resident.
Quote: DRich
The best thing about a California winner is they get to pay $130 million in state taxes on top of their $370 million in federal income tax.
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I'd give 'em $150mm and say "keep the change."
Talk about a nice problem to have.
Quote: DRichThe best thing about a California winner is they get to pay $130 million in state taxes on top of their $370 million in federal income tax.
I don't believe this is correct. From what I understand, California does NOT impose any state taxes on lottery winnings.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/taxes-on-lottery-winnings-by-state
https://www.sapling.com/12298576/tax-lotto-winnings-california
https://www.sacbee.com/news/lottery/article263933676.html
Quote: Mission146Quote: tuttigymQuote: Mission146Quote: DRichPowerball website shows next jackpot at $20 million.
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L.A. Times had it right--one winner, California.
The remainder of Powerball's website remains broken.
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My sister lives in CA and plays. I will ask her if she had the winning ticket and let y'all know.
tuttigym
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Spoiler: She didn't.
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I asked her, and her reply; "of course, didn't you hear me scream?" Gosh, who to believe.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigym
I asked her, and her reply; "of course, didn't you hear me scream?" Gosh, who to believe.
tuttigym
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(Quote clipped, relevance)
If she's going to be rich, then I imagine that she will take good care of you financially. That being the case, I should expect that you'll have better things to do than participate on this forum in short enough order.
I'd like to congratulate your sister, and by extension, you. Do take the time to drop a quick hello on us once every couple of years, won't you?
Surveys show that most Americans have less than one thousand dollars in cash, but fifty million dollars wouldn't even meet their needs?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Ace2I’m always surprised how much ticket sales increase in times like these. It’s like a 50 million dollar jackpot isn’t worth the time for many people but a billion dollar jackpot is.
For me there would be no difference between 50 million and a billion dollars. It’s more money than I could ever spend and I’d end up gifting/donating most of it
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Seriously? If you actually believe $50 million is all you would need, you don’t have 19 friends/relatives/ causes that you wouldn’t like giving $50 million each too?
I am NOT saying a billion is 20 times as good a win for me as $50 million, but with a billion I have a much larger cadre of friends and family I could eliminate any money concerns for than if I won ‘only’ $50 million.
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Quote: Mission146Quote: tuttigym
I asked her, and her reply; "of course, didn't you hear me scream?" Gosh, who to believe.
tuttigym
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(Quote clipped, relevance)
If she's going to be rich, then I imagine that she will take good care of you financially. That being the case, I should expect that you'll have better things to do than participate on this forum in short enough order.
I'd like to congratulate your sister, and by extension, you. Do take the time to drop a quick hello on us once every couple of years, won't you?
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Naw, she hates me, so things won't change for me, and the forum is stuck.
tuttigym
You'd think that, but there seems to be a non-zero number of self professed independently wealthy members here who post multiple times a day.Quote: Mission146If she's going to be rich, then I imagine that she will take good care of you financially. That being the case, I should expect that you'll have better things to do than participate on this forum in short enough order.
Quote: Ace2Surveys show that most Americans have less than one thousand dollars in cash, but fifty million dollars wouldn't even meet their needs?
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I take this to mean that most respondents are better at spending money than they are at acquiring or retaining it.
Another reason why I'm in favor of the annuity option for the typical winner - 29 second chances to figure out their finances before utter destitution.
Quote: EdCollinsQuote: DRichThe best thing about a California winner is they get to pay $130 million in state taxes on top of their $370 million in federal income tax.
I don't believe this is correct. From what I understand, California does NOT impose any state taxes on lottery winnings.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/taxes-on-lottery-winnings-by-state
https://www.sapling.com/12298576/tax-lotto-winnings-california
https://www.sacbee.com/news/lottery/article263933676.html
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You are probably correct. I was just making an assumption.
Here are the sales by drawing date, in millions.
Nov 7 (2.02B jackpot): 275.92
Nov 5 (1.6B jackpot): 279.27
source
Quote: WizardInterestingly, ticket sales for the Monday drawing, with a jackpot of $2.04 billion were less than Saturday's, with a jackpot of $1.6 billion. I assume it was the Monday effect.
Here are the sales by drawing date, in millions.
Nov 7 (2.02B jackpot): 275.92
Nov 5 (1.6B jackpot): 279.27
source
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That and 24 fewer hours between drawings, I suspect. I should also imagine many lottery players wouldn’t feel right about purchasing a ticket on a Sunday.
Quote: WizardInterestingly, ticket sales for the Monday drawing, with a jackpot of $2.04 billion were less than Saturday's, with a jackpot of $1.6 billion. I assume it was the Monday effect.
Here are the sales by drawing date, in millions.
Nov 7 (2.02B jackpot): 275.92
Nov 5 (1.6B jackpot): 279.27
source
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I'd like to see average "per capita" ticket sales... I only bought two tickets on Saturday, but five on Monday.
Quote: Ace2Surveys show that most Americans have less than one thousand dollars in cash, but fifty million dollars wouldn't even meet their needs?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Ace2I’m always surprised how much ticket sales increase in times like these. It’s like a 50 million dollar jackpot isn’t worth the time for many people but a billion dollar jackpot is.
For me there would be no difference between 50 million and a billion dollars. It’s more money than I could ever spend and I’d end up gifting/donating most of it
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Seriously? If you actually believe $50 million is all you would need, you don’t have 19 friends/relatives/ causes that you wouldn’t like giving $50 million each too?
I am NOT saying a billion is 20 times as good a win for me as $50 million, but with a billion I have a much larger cadre of friends and family I could eliminate any money concerns for than if I won ‘only’ $50 million.
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Of course 50 million would meet MY needs. But if I had a billion I could help many more friends and relatives meet THEIR needs. ‘Needs’ also change depending on how much money you have. I pay close to nothing now for security/lawyers/accountants. If I won a billion that surely changes.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Ace2Surveys show that most Americans have less than one thousand dollars in cash, but fifty million dollars wouldn't even meet their needs?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Ace2I’m always surprised how much ticket sales increase in times like these. It’s like a 50 million dollar jackpot isn’t worth the time for many people but a billion dollar jackpot is.
For me there would be no difference between 50 million and a billion dollars. It’s more money than I could ever spend and I’d end up gifting/donating most of it
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Seriously? If you actually believe $50 million is all you would need, you don’t have 19 friends/relatives/ causes that you wouldn’t like giving $50 million each too?
I am NOT saying a billion is 20 times as good a win for me as $50 million, but with a billion I have a much larger cadre of friends and family I could eliminate any money concerns for than if I won ‘only’ $50 million.
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Where do you stop handing money out? Your third cousins? Do your best friends qualify? Your second best friend from summer camp that one year? The nurses you worked with? The custodians you worked with? Your sons girlfriends parents? Your daughters friends?
Of course 50 million would meet MY needs. But if I had a billion I could help many more friends and relatives meet THEIR needs. ‘Needs’ also change depending on how much money you have. I pay close to nothing now for security/lawyers/accountants. If I won a billion that surely changes.
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Quote: WizardInterestingly, ticket sales for the Monday drawing, with a jackpot of $2.04 billion were less than Saturday's, with a jackpot of $1.6 billion. I assume it was the Monday effect.
Many people get paid on Friday.
Unlike some other states where the lucky winner can remain anonymous, under California rules, state lottery officials must release the name of the new billionaire.
What makes this a challenge is sales are strongly exponential up to jackpots of 300M to 500M. After that, there are not so many data points. In fact, there have been only 31 drawings with jackpots of 500M or more. For those, a liner relationship seems the closest fit.
That said, here are my new formulas for number of tickets sold (in millions) by jackpot size (in millions), where j = jackpot.
Jackpots under 400M: 6.7092*exp(0.0025*j)
Jackpots over 400M: 0.19059*j - 58
I played around with the over 400M formula, so there wouldn't be a big jerk in ticket sales between jackpots of 399M and 401M.
That said, I will have to revisit my answer I gave before about buying every single combination. It's possible I was wrong in that my estimate of ticket sales was too high.
Source of Powerball ticket sales
Quote: GandlerThis has actually happened twice in history (probably more, but that is what I know of in my head), West Virginia and Ireland, there was a period (I think 90s for both) that certain lotteries in those States/Countries would routinely hit a level that the value of the prize and all subprizes would exceed the cost of buying every combo, so a group of investors would just buy out every combo (which must have been hard to do by hand before you could just type the numbers online). In both cases it led to an adjustment of the prize structure and/or the total numbers drawn.
I actually learned this in High School in a Stats class textbook in one of the real-world examples sections (that is about the extent of the details that I recall from my head).
For example, if Powerball tickets were only one dollar each, buying 292 million combos would be profitable currently -and for the last several drawings- (even with the expected taxes). Even if somebody else wins the jackpot as well (which cuts the jackpot in half -I think, I don't know the rules perfectly-), with all of the subprizes that you would hit on other tickets it would still be profitable at the current level (assuming one-dollar tickets).
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I'd like to give a new reply to this one. My previous reply overstated ticket demand, increasing the expected number of other players you would have to share the jackpot with.
This question was asked when the jackpot was $1.6 billion, although the posted jackpot might have been $1.5 billion at the time. Let's go with the 1.6.
My new formula, based on recent ticket sales, shows an expected number of winners for a 1.6B jackpot of 0.845. The expected jackpot share you would get is 67.5%, after jackpot splitting with other winners.
I adjusted the contribution rate to 69.3%. So, buying every combination gives the winner a 69.3% loss rebate on all the tickets that didn't hit the jackpot.
Bottom line is I show, before taxes buying every combination would have had a 27.3% player advantage.
Quote: FTBThe owner of the gas station where the $2.04 billion winning ticket was sold received $1 million from the California Lottery. Not to be outdone, multiple people across multiple states won $1 million with one winner in another state winning $2 million.
Unlike some other states where the lucky winner can remain anonymous, under California rules, state lottery officials must release the name of the new billionaire.
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Even if a trust is created in CA, the winner's name is made public, unlike in other states when a trust claims the prize.
.
