My covid-19 continuing journey

KJ I’m going to get tested tomorrow even though I doubt I have it. My sister is a doctor and is worried my stomach virus from the last 4 days is a symptom of corona. I have stomach issues so it’s not abnormal for me to get this a couple times a year. I have no other symptoms but I guess it’s better to know for sure.

Quote: PokerGrinder

KJ I’m going to get tested tomorrow even though I doubt I have it. My sister is a doctor and is worried my stomach virus from the last 4 days is a symptom of corona. I have stomach issues so it’s not abnormal for me to get this a couple times a year. I have no other symptoms but I guess it’s better to know for sure.

Interesting. Not sure if it would be better for you to test positive and this is your only symptom and you get through it and maybe have some immunity or if it is better that you test negative. Either way, hope you feel better soon. Keep us posted.

So probably not the right thread for this, but since we were discussing myocarditis and pericarditis as complications from covid-19, ESPN is reporting that several doctors associated with the NCAA are very concerned about the recent discoveries of myocarditis cases associated with covid-19.

Just to be clear, myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle, which is a little different than my recent complication, pericarditis, which is inflammation of the fluids and sac surrounding the heart. Different but similar in that both are suddenly showing up as heart related complications, sometimes months after symptoms, and often with people that didn't experience all that severe symptoms to begin with.

The NCAA doctors are very concerned about myocarditis and are citing that as a reason against opening college football

Quote: kewlj

So probably not the right thread for this, but since we were discussing myocarditis and pericarditis as complications from covid-19, ESPN is reporting that several doctors associated with the NCAA are very concerned about the recent discoveries of myocarditis cases associated with covid-19.

Just to be clear, myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle, which is a little different than my recent complication, pericarditis, which is inflammation of the fluids and sac surrounding the heart. Different but similar in that both are suddenly showing up as heart related complications, sometimes months after symptoms, and often with people that didn't experience all that severe symptoms to begin with.

The NCAA doctors are very concerned about myocarditis and are citing that as a reason against opening college football

https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/ex-florida-state-center-michael-ojo-dead-at-27-from-heart-attack/


Don't know if this was mentioned in other threads. This is from the Murdoch-owned Post, so not sure it's mentioned in this particular article, but the player had Covid-19 previously. Probably got some folks' attention.

If you check out the blog entry I posted Saturday, I make the point that without knowing long-term virus consequences, and with the NCAA requiring that conferences not allow athletes to waive their legal rights (suing, in other words), athletic departments open themselves up for lawsuits decades hence if they play college football this season.

That test is quite uncomfortable but I’m happy to say that I tested negative.

Good result. It eliminates one thing that could be causing your issues. Feel Better.

Quote: PokerGrinder

That test is quite uncomfortable but I’m happy to say that I tested negative.

Some friends of mine got tested multiple times at the same site. They figured out that, although no test was comfortable, the older nurse knew what she was doing and the younger one was brutal. One guy wound up snorting out a big hunk of blood after the youngster tested him. He said it felt like a fishhook up his nose.

Quote: redietz

Some friends of mine got tested multiple times at the same site. They figured out that, although no test was comfortable, the older nurse knew what she was doing and the younger one was brutal. One guy wound up snorting out a big hunk of blood after the youngster tested him. He said it felt like a fishhook up his nose.

I had an older lady do mine and it didn’t hurt just uncomfortable.

Quote: PokerGrinder

I had an older lady do mine and it didn’t hurt just uncomfortable.

Quote: PokerGrinder

I’m happy to say that I tested negative.

Good to hear!

Quote:

That test is quite uncomfortable

I'm guessing they gave you a "brain swab?" I am fortunate not to have needed a Covid test thus far, but it looks like the same test as they do for the flu, which I have had. Mrs. Joeman and I have come to call those tests "brain swabs." I mean, how can they stick that oversized Q-Tip 6" up your nose and not hit brain? ;)

I didn't have that deep nasal swab. I was expecting that because that is what I was seeing on the news back in April, but when I got to the test site, it was a throat swab through the mouth. No discomfort what so ever.

Y'all should just try EB's completely painless test.

"Doc I got it right?"

Gets the nod!

"I knew it!"

Update on my situation. Scan this week, two weeks after my last scan revealed my inflammation around my heart is gone. I sort of knew that before the scan confirmed it because I have felt much better for 3 weeks now. So that is good news.

I also have resumed some blackjack play, also about 3 weeks ago. I know there are some who will say this is risky for me with my medical situation and I can't argue that, but I take every precaution. I wear a mask. I carry hand sanitizer and sanitize my hands frequently. I only play heads up with a dealer and luckily one of the benefits of this particular time, is there are lots of heads up opportunities to take advantage of. I only play a few hours each day, about 40% of my normal play time, but because of heads up play and betting limits a little higher, I have actually recorded about 80% of my normal EV over the past 3 weeks.

I also re-tested for antibodies 2 weeks ago and still am registering a strong number. One of the things that went into this decision is that while we keep hearing that scientists and doctors just don't know how long people might be immune after they have had the virus, we also aren't hearing a lot of stories of people contracting it full blown a second time. There are scarce accounts of people testing positive a second time, but evidence suggests they just hadn't shed all of the virus initially.

I may come to regret this decision later (I hope not), but the bottom line is there are risks in life. You do what you can to protect yourself and minimize risks and move forward.

Quote: kewlj

I may come to regret this decision later (I hope not), but the bottom line is there are risks in life. You do what you can to protect yourself and minimize risks and move forward.

Agree 100%. All my perhaps unnecessary risks (eating in a restaurant, sharing a golf cart, not asking electrician to wear a mask, etc..) pale in comparison to wife’s risk in her dental practice. Yes, they use lots of precautions but factor in human error and I’m sure it’s the riskiest thing we do. She decided she didn’t want to be unemployed and is accepting the risks. If the only thing that mattered in life was not getting COVID-19 she wouldn’t be working.

I went to casino to pick up free gift. Checked Ultimate X machines to pick up around $20 in EV. Because I enjoyed it!

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63


If correct, it would explain much, including part of the reason for hydroxy trials yielding no effects, but anecdotal reports of meds combined with Vitamin D might have some validity.

By the way, the China virus isn't the only virus that can cause the bradykinin response. Complications from the good old seasonal flu can as well.

I think the official politically correct term is Chinese Bat Plague.

Quote: mcallister3200

I think the official politically correct term is Chinese Bat Plague.

The 2020 American Coronavirus Pandemic.

Truthfully we are one of the few countries unable to control it properly.

I think we should own it

Quote: darkoz

The 2020 American Coronavirus Pandemic.

Truthfully we are one of the few countries unable to control it properly.

I think we should own it

You really think the RoW is doing better? Sweden maybe. ;-)

Quote: unJon

You really think the RoW is doing better? Sweden maybe. ;-)

When it comes to Coronavirus deaths USA is number one.

Hey isn't that what makes America great? Being number one in everything

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/world/2020/09/01/global-covid-19-tracking-countries-with-the-most-cases-deaths-on-sept-1/%3foutputType=amp

Brazil's terrible. The UK is terrible. The U.S. is terrible. Russia is terrible. Rest of the world -- not terrible, relatively speaking.

Sweden got no mileage from their strategy. They have a much higher death rate than comparable countries, and their economy was as damaged as the economies of comparable countries.

My county has a 10% COVID-19 fatality rate. Last I checked, a few weeks ago, the cable TV news scroll said 340 cases and 34 fatalities. Mexico has a 10% fatality rate too. If the powers-that-be wanna get everybody sick, expect 30 to 60+ million U.S. fatalities in a 6 month blow-out with no masks, no social distancing, no lockdowns, no quarantines, no health insurance, and no hospitals (because they're too toxic to stay open).

80% of the people who have been out of work haven't been paid more than $1200 since April. You see long food lines everywhere they are. Evictions were just stopped by an EO from the president through the CDC two nights ago. Utilities are going to be shutting off millions for unpaid bills starting now. No electricity, no water, no gas, no heat/AC, no cable TV or internet. That makes eviction possible despite the CDC because the place becomes uninhabitable.

Many people get less than $100 a week on unemployment, but the systems are down.

The good news is that I have had no issues since the inflammation around my heart complication in July/August. I feel pretty good.

The bad new for me is that because my initial bout with Covid was in April, now 7 months ago, I feel like any immunity I may have had may be gone. And with cases exploding again and me being in a higher risk category, I ended my blackjack last month. I still visit casinos a couple times a week to play through some of my larger free play amounts, but blackjack, which is how I really support myself is out right now. And it was a lousy year blackjack results to boot.

2021, vaccines and at least somewhat of a return to normalcy can't come soon enough. Hope everyone is doing well and staying healthy.

Quote: redietz

Brazil's terrible. The UK is terrible. The U.S. is terrible. Russia is terrible. Rest of the world -- not terrible, relatively speaking.

"Not terrible" cannot be used to describe the rest of the Organization of American States. That numbers 18 or so, depending on whether the "miracles" of Nicaragua, Cuba or Venezuela are included.

Quote: redietz

Brazil's terrible. The UK is terrible. The U.S. is terrible. Russia is terrible. Rest of the world -- not terrible, relatively speaking.

I can attest for the UK. I'd assess it as pretty bad, but less terrible than it would be if we were not acting now. Our government was very slow to impose the measures which we now see succeeding to suppress the virus. Nationally, we have imposed soft 'stay at home' restrictions well short of lockdown. I believe that our current restrictions will, at best, put us on a holding path for a month or so. Situation is quite tolerable and tolerated by most of us. Little disagreement from the populace or the media that we need to socially distance at least as well as the current rules and maybe a majority of us are going the extra mile, voluntarily.
I'm personally just taking care of my immediate family and staying the hell away from those I deem to be fools. It's no hardship to me to adapt my behaviour. Let them get ill and make eachother ill.
I pity our medics and if I had my way, all those that defy reason and end up in intensive care should be assumed to have signed a 'do not resuscitate' instruction..... or even better, a 'do not treat me' instruction.

Boy this covid has been a thorn in my side for the last year.

I have documented in this thread my journey with the illness last April and lingering effects lasting into May, and then a brief heart complication over the summer.

I also experienced the worst year of my blackjack career, in large part due to reduced playing time because of covid, although part of it was just negative variance at the worst time as I tried to bump up in stakes to recover some of that lost time.

And now the latest chapter. My mother who avoided getting sick last spring, when my brother and I did (we don't live with her), came down with covid the second week in January. She stayed home getting sicker and sicker and was admitted to the hospital last Friday. She was immediately given monoclonal antibody treatment, the same treatment that benefited Donald Trump and minimized his illness, but it had no effect on Mom. It has to be given very early on to be effective I am told. Supplemental oxygen wasn't helping and her oxygen levels continued to drop.

On Wednesday, against my better judgement, the doctor convinced me she needed to be on a ventilator for several days to allow her lungs to heal. I reluctantly agreed.

This morning Mom came off the ventilator just as the doctor promised and is back on just oxygen and sedated. Hopefully this is the first step back. With the help of the staff, my brother and I got to face time with her for a few minutes, which was very disturbing because she was very confused and even a bit hostile which is not her. I am told this is normal, but it is very painful not to be able to be there with her, assuring her everything is going to be ok. I hate that she is going through this alone. I hate the F***ing virus!

Quote: kewlj

Boy this covid has been a thorn in my side for the last year.

Quote:

My mother who avoided getting sick last spring, when my brother and I did (we don't live with her), came down with covid the second week in January.

Quote:

This morning Mom came off the ventilator just as the doctor promised and is back on just oxygen and sedated. Hopefully this is the first step back. With the help of the staff, my brother and I got to face time with her for a few minutes, which was very disturbing because she was very confused and even a bit hostile which is not her. I am told this is normal, but it is very painful not to be able to be there with her, assuring her everything is going to be ok. I hate that she is going through this alone. I hate the F***ing virus!

Thanks for the update Kewlj. I wish your Mom a strong recovery.
We need to hate this virus. But more, we need to deny it the use of our legs. Every last one of us. Some friend or family or casual acquaintance: Some ordinary person, delivered that infection to your Mom.

[Expletive forgiven]

Quote: OnceDear

Thanks for the update Kewlj. I wish your Mom a strong recovery.
We need to hate this virus. But more, we need to deny it the use of our legs. Every last one of us. Some friend or family or casual acquaintance: Some ordinary person, delivered that infection to your Mom.

[Expletive forgiven]

Thanks OnceDear. Interesting take on denying use of legs.

I just rebooked, for the third time, my spring 2020 junket to Las Vegas. Both times before I bailed out because I did not want to spend all that time on a plane. I figured that this time I would be able to get a vaccine before I flew, and that, of course, I would then be invincible.

But reading stories like this make me question even leaving the house. There seems to be no defense possible that involves any person-to-person contact whatever, since, for sure, "some ordinary person delivered that infection." Totally unintentional, and anonymous.

I assume that your mother took all the necessary precautions, perhaps the same ones I have been taking. And yet.

There are the generalizations and abstract concepts that society has to get through this - that 99.4 percent of people who get it survive and recover. So let's just go about our lives and let it run its course.

Then you read this. It's harder to generalize when you "know" someone who is recovering - even someone I know so distantly, from just this forum, and that I met for the first time just one or two responses ago in this thread.

I hope she does okay. Stories like this drive home the impact this virus is having on everyone. Let us know how it works out - hopefully for the best.

Quote: fantom

But reading stories like this make me question even leaving the house. There seems to be no defense possible that involves any person-to-person contact whatever, since, for sure, "some ordinary person delivered that infection." Totally unintentional, and anonymous.

I assume that your mother took all the necessary precautions, perhaps the same ones I have been taking. And yet.

Hi Fantom,
I've had a few friends made seriously ill by this. In one case, anotherwise sane and cautious friend had ONE home visitor. Next Day that visitor started coughing. Within a few more days, my friend, her husband and her son got sick, seriously sick. Maybe, they were fortunate in getting symptoms that made them isolate, or else it would have been two workplaces and a school exposed... and one of those workplaces was a hospital.
All from one assymptomatic home visitor for an hour or so.
If everyone got symptoms, this would be a doddle to solve. If it caused near instant death, it would be a doddle to eradicate. But it's just in the sweet-spot: So many apparently healthy ordinary folk, spreading it to half a dozen or more contacts, who don't fall down until they have passed it on to their half dozen contacts.
UK government advice is to consider everyone you encounter to be infected and infectious AND to consider yourself asymptomatically infected and infectious. If you do that, it's SO much easier to be cautious. Masks and social distancing COULD defeat this with 100% participation for say 3 weeks. But the holes are massive which destroys our chances.
We only need a pinhole in a football to make it a useless football.
And it's NOT so arduous. Wear a mask indoors. Expand your buffer zone to six feet and stay out of crowded places where you are intimately sharing the air that you breath. How hard can it be?
Incidentally, for the UK, it's estimated that roughly 1 in 55 people that I encounter today will be infected and infectious. Needless to say, I avoid getting within 6 feet of most of them. Look around your store, Mall or workplace. How many folks, breath do you inhale in a day?

Quote: fantom

There are the generalizations and abstract concepts that society has to get through this - that 99.4 percent of people who get it survive and recover. So let's just go about our lives and let it run its course.

Just curious as to where these numbers and data is coming from? In the U.S. cases are at 25.6 million with 435,000 deaths. That is a death rate of 1.7%, almost 3 times higher than the .6% you just quoted. I will accept that there are probably higher cases than reported, due to some people having very mild cases that didn't get tested or reported. So I am willing to double the cases and say ok, maybe 1% death rate or just below.

However that is only the deaths. There are many many people suffering longer term effects that last months, for some going on a year now. Who knows how long. Maybe these will be lifelong effects.

And do you know, of the people who were hospitalized, and recovered and went, home, 28% ended back in the hospital within 5 months? Yes, we are talking about those that get hit hardest, probably pre-existing conditions, but I am wondering if people that end up back in the hospital 5 months later with a heart issue or stroke, or blood clot that turns fatal, are even counted as covid related, when we now know that covid can cause all these kind of complications down the road?

Quote: fantom

that 99.4 percent of people who get it survive and recover. So let's just go about our lives and let it run its course.

I too, would be interested in a source for that percentage "99.4% who get it survive and recover".
Does it assume that those who are ill get the chance of intensive care? Because if hospitals run out of capacity, I think it's fair to assume that a lower percentage survive. Besides, of course, when hospitals cannot do routine non-covid treatments (e.g. cancer treatment) because they are overwhelmed, and so more die of unrelated causes.
For KewlJ,
I can't speak for the US, but the UK covid deaths count key metric is "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death" I know that's not a pure count, but it tracks incredibly closely a secondary metric "Daily deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date of death"

We could argue all year about our choice of statistic, (Let's not) but it's no consolation when the doctor says "Luckily your husband didn't die directly of Covid. He died of something else when we sent him home untreated that day we were busy."

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths 103k versus 105k and the same shaped graph.

Ultimately, "Excess deaths" is a pretty good indicator, too. That's consistently higher.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55411323



I expect John Hopkins or worldometer would have similar for the US. Here's CDC guidelines https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

Quote: OnceDear

I too, would be interested in a source for that percentage "99.4% who get it survive and recover".

As per letting Covid-19 "run its course..."

Assuming that number is true. that the death rate is 0.6% (assuming available ICU capacity), this number corresponds to about 2 million deaths in the US from Covid and 46 million deaths from Covid worldwide. As OD pointed out, this number ignores long haulers and peripheral effects on the inability to treat other ailments.

The statistics, for example at BNO or Worldometer, show a death rate of about 1.5%-1.7%. But this death rate only pertains to those who have been tested and recorded. There are tons of undiagnosed cases and at least 25% are asymptomatic according to recent studies. So 0.6% overall seems about right.

The problem ahead is with these new variants, especially B.1.351 the South African variant. You can catch Covid again, and some of these new ones are more lethal. Unfortunately, it is unclear how that will ultimately impact the 0.6% number.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-covid-19-strain-in-south-africa-what-we-know-11609971229

I would say anyone who wants to let this disease just "run its course" would be a person does not mind the image of bodies piled up in alleys after we have run out of refrigerated trucks to deal with the overflow of corpses.

So sorry for all you've gone through and continue to go through, KJ.

Have there been any studies or thoughts by experts about a lesser probability of catching a moderate to severe case in a reinfection or an infection of a different variant among those who’ve already recovered once?

Quote: mcallister3200

Have there been any studies or thoughts by experts about a lesser probability of catching a moderate to severe case in a reinfection or an infection of a different variant among those who’ve already recovered once?

Yes. re-Infection with the more deadly and transmissible South African variant is documented.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-finds-south-african-coronavirus-strain-poses-reinfection-risks-11611941546

Quote: teliot

Yes. re-Infection with the more deadly and transmissible South African variant is documented.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-finds-south-african-coronavirus-strain-poses-reinfection-risks-11611941546

I couldn't read the full story. Does the vaccine help against this strain?

The county I live in right across the river from Detroit Michigan has been hard hit in the last two months. Around mid December the total number of deaths from Covid 19 was 67. In the nine months since it arrived here we averaged only 7 or so deaths a month. There are around 400,000 residents in the county total with 4 hospitals

With numbers heading up in December the local doctor of health was going to closed down all the schools if the province minister of Education didn’t. The minister closed down three or four different areas in the province where cases had taken off, my county being one of them. At this point in time i knew nobody who had died of this virus.... how 6 weeks changed that

December 20 a friend of mine died at 67 yrs of age. RIP Mike

Shortly after my retired barber who’s business I had my hair cut at for 30 yrs or so passed away too. The nursing home he was in had a massive amount of cases RIP Alfredo

December 31 a guy I have known for 40+ years sister Sheila dies. She was a 30 year PSW at one of the local nursing homes which had many cases too. I also knew her dad for 25 yrs or so too. Her dad Doug was in the same nursing home as my neighbours husband , same floor I believe the memory floor. A floor where something like 35 out of 43 patients caught the virus. Doug a week or so after her death has a mini stroke and is moved into the hospital where he ends up testing positive. Doug passed away this week less than a month after his daughter.He was one of the nicest people you could meet always a huge smile on his face. RIP Doug and Sheila

A co-worker I spoke with a week ago asks if I remember Jeff Durocher from high school ... yes I played ball with him growing up. His parents both died of Covid the first week or so of the month. I checked the paper and sure enough the picture was who I thought his father was one of our coaches. RIP Mr and Mrs Durocher

Spoke with the Doctor at the clinic down the street who had it , was on a ventilator for some time . I asked him how he was doing as he was looking fine. Said his hand motor skills are not back to what they were . Couldn’t write like he used to. Other than that he was doing well.

https://windsor.ctvnews.ca/scariest-time-of-my-life-windsor-doctor-beats-covid-19-warns-virus-doesn-t-discriminate-1.4912551

Just to give you an idea of how close to home all this was

The clinic Dr Favot worked at is half a mile away. Mr and Mrs Durocher lived halfway between my place and the clinic. Mike lived a mile to the southeast of the clinic . Doug and Alfredo nursing homes both are a mile south of the clinic. Sheila worked and lived maybe 4 miles max to the north of the clinic.

Good news at least the numbers are down, way down the past week. 35 new cases in the whole county yesterday

The bad news the death total that stood around 67 December 10 now is 316

67 in the first 9 months
249 deaths in the past 6 weeks

Quote: AxelWolf

I couldn't read the full story. Does the vaccine help against this strain?

It's early days and evidence is scant, but major vaccine manufacturers anticipate that their vaccines are somewhat effective, but in some cases to a much diminished extent.
"Due to the relatively new discovery of these variants, not enough research has been conducted to determine whether existing vaccines will immunise against the new strains.

In initial trials the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines has proven somewhat effective against the new South African strain, according to the companies producing either vaccine.

Moderna has reported that although there has been a six-fold reduction in the effectiveness of the vaccine against the South-African variant, a booster third dose could provide greater immunisation.

Previous research by Moderna proved the vaccine had no loss of effectiveness against the UK-originated variant."

Quote: AxelWolf

I couldn't read the full story. Does the vaccine help against this strain?

Yes these pay walls suck. I would assume you are as good at using Google as I am at this point. But what I have heard and read is very bad news.

Quote: teliot

Yes. re-Infection with the more deadly and transmissible South African variant is documented.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-finds-south-african-coronavirus-strain-poses-reinfection-risks-11611941546

Thanks. I knew reinfection was possible, what I was meaning to ask is if when someone is reinfected or catches a different strain if it was perhaps considerably less likely to have a moderate to severe case, more likely to be mild/asymptomatic.

Quote: mcallister3200

Thanks. I knew reinfection was possible, what I was meaning to ask is if when someone is reinfected or catches a different strain if it was perhaps considerably less likely to have a moderate to severe case, more likely to be mild/asymptomatic.

These new variants have barely been identified, though they are already running rampant. The data is still scant.

Quote: mcallister3200

Have there been any studies or thoughts by experts about a lesser probability of catching a moderate to severe case in a reinfection or an infection of a different variant among those who’ve already recovered once?

. I am sure authorities are trying. Just so difficult to do. So many people have had it, and do not know it, that if they get ‘re-infected’ you will not even know it is a re-infection.

Quote: SOOPOO

. I am sure authorities are trying. Just so difficult to do. So many people have had it, and do not know it, that if they get ‘re-infected’ you will not even know it is a re-infection.

One interesting piece of mathematics is to compare a variant that is 50% more deadly against one that is 50% more infectious. The more infectious variant will kill exponentially more than the more deadly strain. And the South African strain is both more infectious and more deadly.

For example, imagine 100 people infected with a death rate of 1%, an infection rate of 1.2 (every infected person infects 1.2 people) and a infectious period of 1 week.

After 8 weeks, 50% more deadly version will have infected 1650 people overall, for 24.7 deaths.

After 8 weeks, the 50% more infectious version (infection rate of 1.8 instead of 1.2) will have infected 13650 people, for a total of 136.5 deaths.

This computation is limited to 8 weeks, just keep going from there.

Quote: mcallister3200

Thanks. I knew reinfection was possible, what I was meaning to ask is if when someone is reinfected or catches a different strain if it was perhaps considerably less likely to have a moderate to severe case, more likely to be mild/asymptomatic.

It is my understanding the answer to that WAS yes, before the new strains occurred. People that were getting reinfected were generally more mild or asymptomatic. Like everything there are exceptions. There was a 25 year old male, right here in Nevada, healthy, no pre-existing conditions that the first time he caught the virus, he had mild symptoms for a few days, but 4 months later when he caught the virus a second time, he ended up in ICU.

This was before the new strains though, so maybe he caught a different second strain and they didn't yet know it. I also think it has something to do with viral load. Just how much virus you initially got.

Now, with these new strains in the mix, I don't know the answer. It is probably too early for anyone to know.

Quote: teliot

So sorry for all you've gone through and continue to go through, KJ.

Thank you teliot.

To be honest, I am starting to feel a little cursed, or on the extreme short end of the bell curve on health issues.

When I had my first heart values (2) replacement in 2011, I was told the mechanical valves would last 25-30 years. SIX (6) years later one of them failed and I needed a second replacement. A little after the fact research showed that valves rarely fail in the first 5 or 6 years. It is such a small number we well call it zero, although like RoR, it isn't really zero. So on the single most important issue of my life, I was WAY on the short end of the curve.

Now along comes Covid. Death rate 1%. We can argue just which side of 1% depending on how you interpret the data. More severe infections or illness, I don't know what the number is 5%? Whatever it is, most of those are older people. People in my age group, 30's, it is a very small number. My covid illness was maybe not severe, but pretty moderate, to say the least, Again, pretty far down the bell curve for my age group.

Then there is the fact that now all 3 members of my family have contracted covid. My brother mild, me moderate, Mom, pretty severe. If only 10% of the country has had covid, it is an anomaly that all three of my family members have had it. An anomaly on the wrong side of things.

So I am feeling like healthwise and there is nothing more important, I keep falling on the bad side of the bell curve. Maybe feeling a little sorry for myself. But on the other hand, I survived both my heart operations. and my brother, mother and I have so far survived covid, so maybe I have nothing to feel sorry for myself about, when you see on the news that families with kids lost both parents in a matter of weeks. I don't know, maybe I am just growing frustrated at the disruption in life, this damn virus has caused. :/

Quote: kewlj

Thank you teliot.

To be honest, I am starting to feel a little cursed, or on the extreme short end of the bell curve on health issues.

When I had my first heart values (2) replacement in 2011, I was told the mechanical valves would last 25-30 years. SIX (6) years later one of them failed and I needed a second replacement. A little after the fact research showed that valves rarely fail in the first 5 or 6 years. It is such a small number we well call it zero, although like RoR, it isn't really zero. So on the single most important issue of my life, I was WAY on the short end of the curve.

Now along comes Covid. Death rate 1%. We can argue just which side of 1% depending on how you interpret the data. More severe infections or illness, I don't know what the number is 5%? Whatever it is, most of those are older people. People in my age group, 30's, it is a very small number. My covid illness was maybe not severe, but pretty moderate, to say the least, Again, pretty far down the bell curve for my age group.

Then there is the fact that now all 3 members of my family have contracted covid. My brother mild, me moderate, Mom, pretty severe. If only 10% of the country has had covid, it is an anomaly that all three of my family members have had it. An anomaly on the wrong side of things.

So I am feeling like healthwise and there is nothing more important, I keep falling on the bad side of the bell curve. Maybe feeling a little sorry for myself. But on the other hand, I survived both my heart operations. and my brother, mother and I have so far survived covid, so maybe I have nothing to feel sorry for myself about, when you see on the news that families with kids lost both parents in a matter of weeks. I don't know, maybe I am just growing frustrated at the disruption in life, this damn virus has caused. :/

You’re alive, can walk, talk, and see without difficulty, have fully functional cognitive ability and were born into one of the countries with reasonably good opportunity. Doesn’t sound like the wrong end of the bell curve to me. Grass is always greener etc.

Quote: mcallister3200

You’re alive, can walk, talk, and see without difficulty, have fully functional cognitive ability and were born into one of the countries with reasonably good opportunity. Doesn’t sound like the wrong end of the bell curve to me. Grass is always greener etc.

Fair enough, but I did specify, ON HEALTH RELATED ISSUES, I was feeling a little sorry for myself and on the bad side of the bell curve. :/

My 99.4% number was my recollection of the death rate from some time ago. Right now a CDC webpage I have just looked at gives the "case-fatality" rate in the U.S. as 1.7%, which I figure is a survival rate of 98.3%. Don't know how to paste in a link here, but it's at /data/mortality. There are other places where that number is vastly different (29% fatalities in Yemen, 0% in Singapore). And "survival" just means you didn't die, even if you are left with a lot of continuing issues.

It's not my intent to get into a mathematical pissing contest. My general point was that you can extrapolate a high-survival rate (even 98% is pretty good) and then read about people like kewlj and the numbers don't matter.

Balancing what appears from the numbers to be somewhat reasonable with a desire to stop living like a hermit. and you might think, as I have been thinking, that it might be okay to travel again. It's only when you connect the numbers with people you know, even as casually as the kewlj family, that the best statistical analysis you can come up with is useless. 99.4%, 98.3%, even 99.97%, which is what I recall as the survival rate for people aged 0-29 years, is just a number.

Quote: fantom

My 99.4% number was my recollection of the death rate from some time ago. Right now a CDC webpage I have just looked at gives the "case-fatality" rate in the U.S. as 1.7%, which I figure is a survival rate of 98.3%. Don't know how to paste in a link here, but it's at /data/mortality. There are other places where that number is vastly different (29% fatalities in Yemen, 0% in Singapore). And "survival" just means you didn't die, even if you are left with a lot of continuing issues.

It's not my intent to get into a mathematical pissing contest. My general point was that you can extrapolate a high-survival rate (even 98% is pretty good) and then read about people like kewlj and the numbers don't matter.

Balancing what appears from the numbers to be somewhat reasonable with a desire to stop living like a hermit. and you might think, as I have been thinking, that it might be okay to travel again. It's only when you connect the numbers with people you know, even as casually as the kewlj family, that the best statistical analysis you can come up with is useless. 99.4%, 98.3%, even 99.97%, which is what I recall as the survival rate for people aged 0-29 years, is just a number.

Fair enough, fantom. Thanks for taking a look and updating your survival rate.

Only thing I would say is about the comment "even 98% is pretty good". There are 2% that would argue that, IF THEY WERE ALIVE TO DO SO. LOL.

Quote: kewlj

There are 2% that would argue that, IF THEY WERE ALIVE TO DO SO. LOL.

That was my point exactly. If you're in the 2% it looks pretty bad,