The Easy Vegas thread
Quote: MichaelBluejayI wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?
link to original post
Advantage play still exists on cruise ships. I found a Regal Riches with 72 purple last month! Scarabs on game #7 loaded with wilds. Star Goddess ready to blow up the whole screen.
I agree with a comment on the Reddit thread. Variable state games are only valuable when they first come out. Soon, the vultures all learn the entry points and the casual players learn not to leave the machine in a state where vultures are in the seat a millisecond after they stand up.
I have never multi-carded. It seems like a lot of work and has a lot of pitfalls. Card runners are still a thing, so I suppose it still works in a shrinking number of casinos. Still, a small edge on large volume can amount to a significant income. Finding a Scarab in a good state is great, but the amount of coin in is really small for the penny denom games.
I am glad you mentioned that the MHB machines do not use a uniform probability distribution to pick the MHB target value. I would say that most use a really deceptive probability distribution biased toward higher trigger values. (Think AGS River Dragons.) I know of one vendor that chooses the maximum must-hit-by value 10% of the time. This means that 10% of the time, the actual jackpot payout is higher than the MHB value listed on the screen by a few cents.
You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.
For some reasons that I cannot fathom, online casinos have been much more generous with free slot play than B&M casinos. Their slots typically have half the house edge versus B&M casinos, but their VP is usually tighter.
Quote: Mental
You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.
I don't believe that to be the case. Most of those games are not server based and just talk to the progressive controller which is usually in the base of the slot cabinet.
Quote: DRichQuote: Mental
You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.
I don't believe that to be the case. Most of those games are not server based and just talk to the progressive controller which is usually in the base of the slot cabinet.
link to original post
My only information regarding this is inferred from reading gambling regulations. A google search throws up many hits for regulations about progressive controllers. I don't know how common it is for the progressive controller to be outside a cabinet. I assume it has to be outside the cabinet for linked progressives. I can't think of any linked MHB progressives off the top of my head
https://casetext.com/regulation/new-jersey-administrative-code/title-13-law-and-public-safety/chapter-69d-gaming-operation-accounting-controls-and-standards/subchapter-1-general-provisions/section-1369d-139-progressive-slot-machine-jackpots
Quote:
(b) When a progressive controller does not reside within the main program of a slot machine, the controller shall either be sealed by the Division or stored in a compartment or cabinet which has two separate locks. The key to one lock shall be maintained and controlled by the security department, and the key to the second lock shall be maintained and controlled by the slot department. Compartments or cabinets shall contain a progressive entry authorization log in accordance with N.J.A.C. 13:69D-1.36(j).
https://assets.ctfassets.net/j16ev64qyf6l/3QWtHnDH80kKackdO38ib6/8cc75ab27cc2cfe1d008dbc5c609f476/Machine-technical-standards-linked-progressives.pdf
Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on the subject.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?
link to original post
Quote:Know that the best slot APs can earn a comfortable living, but that's it.
None of us know what the best slot APs make. The best team leaders/bankrollers probably make more money than you can imagine. The vast majority of independents and worker bees probably don't make anywhere near a 'comfortable living' as I would define the term. It would be interesting if we could know the real story because a lot of what APs say publicly about there income is BS. Most probably don't have good enough records to be able to give an honest answer.
When I am in Las Vegas, I see 20 people per hour checking the same penny game. It is hard to see much income potential in a very competitive market.
Quote: MentalQuote: DRichQuote: Mental
You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.
I don't believe that to be the case. Most of those games are not server based and just talk to the progressive controller which is usually in the base of the slot cabinet.
link to original post
My only information regarding this is inferred from reading gambling regulations. A google search throws up many hits for regulations about progressive controllers. I don't know how common it is for the progressive controller to be outside a cabinet. I assume it has to be outside the cabinet for linked progressives. I can't think of any linked MHB progressives off the top of my head
https://casetext.com/regulation/new-jersey-administrative-code/title-13-law-and-public-safety/chapter-69d-gaming-operation-accounting-controls-and-standards/subchapter-1-general-provisions/section-1369d-139-progressive-slot-machine-jackpotsQuote:
(b) When a progressive controller does not reside within the main program of a slot machine, the controller shall either be sealed by the Division or stored in a compartment or cabinet which has two separate locks. The key to one lock shall be maintained and controlled by the security department, and the key to the second lock shall be maintained and controlled by the slot department. Compartments or cabinets shall contain a progressive entry authorization log in accordance with N.J.A.C. 13:69D-1.36(j).
https://assets.ctfassets.net/j16ev64qyf6l/3QWtHnDH80kKackdO38ib6/8cc75ab27cc2cfe1d008dbc5c609f476/Machine-technical-standards-linked-progressives.pdf
Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on the subject.
link to original post
I have designed a couple of progressive controllers, one a standard local progressive while the other one was for s state-wide progressive. Historically the local ones were stored in a slot machine base in a metal box with a secondary lock on it.
Quote: MentalIt would be interesting if we could know the real story because a lot of what APs say publicly about there income is BS.]
From what I’ve seen BS and gambling go together like best friends. You can hardly pry them apart
Someone PM'd me about this thread (saying he didn't want to post publicly for personal reasons), suggesting I add a fourth slot AP method, non-MHB progressives (normal progressives) that get positive. I'm skeptical of this, because it's nearly impossible to know when a progressive has turned positive, and the situations where a slot becomes positive (and you know it) have to be exceptionally rare. But again, this is not my field of expertise, so what say you?
Quote: MichaelBluejayThanks, guys, this is really helpful stuff. I made lots of edits to the article. Mental, I quoted you in the VSS section.
Someone PM'd me about this thread (saying he didn't want to post publicly for personal reasons), suggesting I add a fourth slot AP method, non-MHB progressives (normal progressives) that get positive. I'm skeptical of this, because it's nearly impossible to know when a progressive has turned positive, and the situations where a slot becomes positive (and you know it) have to be exceptionally rare. But again, this is not my field of expertise, so what say you?
link to original post
DRich says external jackpot controllers are not used very often for standalone MHB games.
I did follow one non-MHB progressive that often got +EV due to a 3% meter rate. That is key. If the meter rate is low it will almost never get positive and it will probably take a very long time to hit. I have hit this progressive myself or seen it hit by someone else 12 times. That is enough to get a good estimate of the hit frequency. When I only had 5 data points, I thought the +EV point was $15K, but now I believe it is $19-20K. It may be possible to get a good number right off the bat by having access to a par sheet.
I found that nobody else would play the game hard below $30K. This meant I could walk away and usually come back another day. I did lose one progressive to someone else when I took a vacation when it was at $32K. I also ran one up to $49K before I hit. I put almost $1M coin in to get the damn thing. I ended up a winner on that chase, but I did experience a $80K drawdown after a very lucky start. This is not recommended for the faint of heart.
There are plenty of traditional progressives where you need to line up some symbols on reels to trigger a jackpot. You can get a very good estimate of the cycle for these sorts of games by counting the frequencies of the jackpot symbols on the pay line. I have never paid much attention to this type. Whenever I looked into them, the entry value was way above the current value. I am sure there are APs who watch this sort of progressive and find some good plays if they are patient and persistent. The meters typically move very slowly, and you don't need to check them very often. You also won't have much competition from others APs.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?
For a site tited "easy" Vegas, you sure did miss out some of the easiest advantages: signup bonuses and promotions.
Another argument is that getting an advantage once is like infinitely better than getting it zero times.
Also, I see easy.vegas already has a page on American Casino Guide and Las Vegas Advisor coupon books. Can link to that as a way to get an advantage for the player.
I think it is a pretty good article.Quote: MichaelBluejayOkay, Tom, I rewrote the article based on your suggestions. See what you think.
link to original post
Quote:Failing that, you could monitor the game and record at what level the jackpot hits, then once you've got data for several hits, take the median figure. That could take months. Have fun.
This should literally say 'months or years'. I have been monitoring this jackpot at 10 online casino for over three years. Some of the casinos shut down or removed the game before it ever hit. It took over a year before I had any confidence in my estimate. Three years of data monitoring multiple casinos is barely enough data for me. Even when the progressive is high , it is a very time consuming and risky play.
I have see some big jackpots at B&M casinos that went for decades and never hit at all.
Quote: MichaelBluejayThanks, guys, this is really helpful stuff. I made lots of edits to the article. Mental, I quoted you in the VSS section.
Someone PM'd me about this thread (saying he didn't want to post publicly for personal reasons), suggesting I add a fourth slot AP method, non-MHB progressives (normal progressives) that get positive. I'm skeptical of this, because it's nearly impossible to know when a progressive has turned positive, and the situations where a slot becomes positive (and you know it) have to be exceptionally rare. But again, this is not my field of expertise, so what say you?
link to original post
Sorry to necromance this post, but it caught my eye. There is one method I can think of for playing uncapped jackpots. It would only work in large venues under the same authority, pretty much just Vegas and Atlantic City, and it would require a team and a lot of legwork.
You would make a list of popular titles, machines that are in every store in town, record what the jackpots are at and you are looking for machines that are at least 2 standard deviations above the norm for jackpots. That should do it, but I could be wrong. Having the PAR sheets, knowing the average return for that denomination in that store, and watching the jackpots trip over time will provide more data that will probably be useful as well. Best I can come up with, not my game either.
But, I wondered, is that enough for it to get traction? Is anybody gonna notice? The short answer was, until recently, not so much. However, the Washington Post just referenced my article. So, now I feel validated.
The quote in which I was a source was, “Casino slot machines, a gambler’s worst bet, generally keep less than 15 percent of gamblers’ money; state lotteries keep about 40 percent, proving again that the private sector is preferable." I'm far from a Libertarian, but on state-run lotteries, I do agree with that.
Quote: MichaelBluejayThe quote in which I was a source was, “Casino slot machines, a gambler’s worst bet, generally keep less than 15 percent of gamblers’ money; state lotteries keep about 40 percent, proving again that the private sector is preferable." I'm far from a Libertarian, but on state-run lotteries, I do agree with that.
link to original post
I feel this is a politicians take on things. While technically truth it's an apples to oranges comparison.
Most people do not play 500 lottery tickets in a single session.
Most people likely do 500 or more slot "plays" in a single session.
A random person might bet $30 on a lottery in a week, and theoretically get $18 back for an expected loss of $12
A random person might play 500 spins at $2 for an expected loss of $150.
So no, the "privately run slot machines" are not so much better than the state lotteries. It's just 2 very different games. And for a compulsive gambler, slots represent a lot more danger than a slow lottery.
Again, there's nothing technically wrong with the quote, but the implied conclusions of it is very misleading. If the state was to run casinos, there would be no reason for them to have a 40% hold in the slots.
Quote: MukkeIf the state was to run casinos, there would be no reason for them to have a 40% hold in the slots.
link to original post
For fun I decided to investigate this a bit. I asked ChatGpt and did not have time to fact check any of this, but it seems plausible.
It seems there are a few government run gambling places in the US, and it turns out their RTPs are actually comparable to private ventures, piercing the implication that state run is worse than privately run:
https://chatgpt.com/share/67aa936e-af60-800b-a1cc-b5513e118ec8
Delaware
In Delaware, the state operates video lottery terminals (VLTs) through its three pari-mutuel facilities:
Dover Downs: Average RTP of 91.85%.
Delaware Park: Average RTP of 92.01%.
Harrington Raceway: Average RTP of 91.90%.
By law, all video lottery games in Delaware must return between 87% and 95% of all wagers on an annual basis. Games can return above 95% but only with the Lottery Director's approval.
AMERICANCASINOGUIDEBOOK.COM
Rhode Island
Rhode Island's two gaming facilities, regulated by the state lottery, report the following average RTPs:
Twin River Casino: 92.10%.
Tiverton Casino: 91.63%.
These figures are based on data from the Rhode Island Lottery for the period from July 1, 2018, through June 30, 2019.
AMERICANCASINOGUIDE.COM
West Virginia
West Virginia operates VLTs at its pari-mutuel facilities and a resort hotel, with state law mandating payouts between 80% and 95%. The average RTPs reported are:
Mountaineer Park: 88.97%.
Mardi Gras Casino: 90.81%.
Wheeling Island: 89.46%.
Charles Town Races: 89.53%.
These figures are based on data from a twelve-month period.
AMERICANCASINOGUIDE.COM
You're right that it might be an apples-to-oranges comparison, and point out that state-run casinos pay about as much as private ones. I wonder whether private-sector lottery games pay more than state-run games? Well, they actually might, if regulation mandated them to. But the states sure aren't regulating themselves to ensure better payouts to players.
Quote: Proposed letter to WaPoIn a recent column ("Here comes the betting and fretting"), George Will said that the ~40% house edge from state-run lotteries vs. the ~15% from private slot machines “proves again that the private sector is preferable.”
As usual, George Will has failed to make his case. He’s comparing apples to oranges, because the games he’s comparing are radically different from each other. The proper comparisons would be the returns from public vs. private slot machines, or public vs. private lotteries. But since there are no public slots and no private lotteries, that comparison can't be made, so there is no way to conclude that the private sector in general can offer better value for the player. That certainly didn’t stop George Will from claiming so, however.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI looked it up, and every one of those casinos seems to be owned privately, not publicly. I never trust AI answers. If I've missed something, or anyone knows of any state-run casino that publishes its returns (or a private-run lottery), I'm all ears!
link to original post
The only thing that jumps to mind is the Q casino in Dubuque - owned by the city. Their reported returns are exactly in line with other casinos around the state.
(The other thing that comes to mind is Keno. I believe math and returns are pretty well established.)
Racinos are weird, and I think you're right to exclude them from consideration.
Are you sure you aren't using what seems a minor factual error just to get to "As usual, George Will has failed to make his case"?
Quote: CalderIt strikes me as rather 'gambling nerdy' and tangential to the point of the column. Will isn't pushing prohibition, just the opposite.
Are you sure you aren't using what seems a minor factual error just to get to "As usual, George Will has failed to make his case"?
link to original post
It certainly reads like that author had a pre-concieved agenda and is eager to justify it. His obvious dislike of Will discredits whatever point he might have.
Quote: DieterQuote: MichaelBluejayI looked it up, and every one of those casinos seems to be owned privately, not publicly. I never trust AI answers. If I've missed something, or anyone knows of any state-run casino that publishes its returns (or a private-run lottery), I'm all ears!
link to original post
The only thing that jumps to mind is the Q casino in Dubuque - owned by the city. Their reported returns are exactly in line with other casinos around the state.
(The other thing that comes to mind is Keno. I believe math and returns are pretty well established.)
Racinos are weird, and I think you're right to exclude them from consideration.
link to original post
Weirdness should be embraced, not excluded. Shame on you.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI'm planning to submit this letter to WaPo, and am submitting it here for peer-review first:
Quote: Proposed letter to WaPoIn a recent column ("Here comes the betting and fretting"), George Will said that the ~40% house edge from state-run lotteries vs. the ~15% from private slot machines “proves again that the private sector is preferable.”
As usual, George Will has failed to make his case. He’s comparing apples to oranges, because the games he’s comparing are radically different from each other. The proper comparisons would be the returns from public vs. private slot machines, or public vs. private lotteries. But since there are no public slots and no private lotteries, that comparison can't be made, so there is no way to conclude that the private sector in general can offer better value for the player. That certainly didn’t stop George Will from claiming so, however.
link to original post
Agree with Billy that your last sentence hurts YOUR credibility. It makes it seem like you had an agenda that shaped your post, as opposed to facts that shaped it. Removing your last sentence, I think your post is great when aimed at a VERY SOPHISTICATED audience, not a ‘general public’ audience which is that of the Washington Post.
Quote: billryanQuote: DieterQuote: MichaelBluejayI looked it up, and every one of those casinos seems to be owned privately, not publicly. I never trust AI answers. If I've missed something, or anyone knows of any state-run casino that publishes its returns (or a private-run lottery), I'm all ears!
link to original post
The only thing that jumps to mind is the Q casino in Dubuque - owned by the city. Their reported returns are exactly in line with other casinos around the state.
(The other thing that comes to mind is Keno. I believe math and returns are pretty well established.)
Racinos are weird, and I think you're right to exclude them from consideration.
link to original post
Weirdness should be embraced, not excluded. Shame on you.
link to original post
The gambling at racinos is not indicative of either general slot play or lottery games. Rather than trying to include the outlier in the general analysis, a separate, specific analysis is warranted.
Or, you know, weird.
@Calder: I don't consider it a minor factual error, but I can't elaborate without running afoul of the no-political-discussion rule here.
@smoothgrh: Thank you, I was able to find OR's state-run slot machines, and their returns.
@SOOPOO: I call George Will on his manipulating data to support his agenda, and you think that reflects poorly on me because of *my* agenda? Sorry, not buying it.
ALL: I've decided not to write to WaPo, but I'll update my article with my comments, once I finish collecting data. I'm hoping the community might be able to help with that.
Here's where I'm at in my research:
Govt.-owned casinos in the U.S.. The only ones I could find are Q Casino (City of Dubque, IA) and Prairie Meadows (Polk County, IA), bot racinos. If anyone knows of others, I'm all ears. Also, their returns are significantly above most other private casinos in the state, again proving George Will wrong.
Slots run by state lotteries. IGT says it supplies VLTs to several states, including most of those below, but I can’t find evidence of slot-style games in some of those states, and in only one state can I find RTPs. Can anyone help with data/info for these?
• GA: Can't find RTPs.
• IL: Can't find evidence of slot-style games.
• LA: Purportedly video poker only, but I can't find evidence of even that.
• OR: The only state that publishes the RTP on its slot games, at least that I can find. And their average is above the U.S. average, disproving George Will yet again.
• MT: Can't find RTPs.
• PA: Can't find evidence of slot-style games.
• SD: Can't find RTPs.
• WV: Can't find evidence of slot-style games.
Quote: MichaelBluejaySlots run by state lotteries. IGT says it supplies VLTs to several states, including most of those below, but I can’t find evidence of slot-style games in some of those states, and in only one state can I find RTPs. Can anyone help with data/info for these?
link to original post
For some reason, I thought I remembered lottery operated "skill games" in Ohio. They may have vanished; it's probably been 5 or 7 years since I've played any. They played almost exactly like PA "skills", although I don't remember a "follow me" optional game.
(More like a MO "NCG", but the game themes were PA style. NCG's display the next game's result (outcome) before you play.)
I doubt those were IGT, as many of the game options seemed like Pace-o-Matic properties.
With the ubiquity of the "bar slots" allowed to alcohol licensees, I haven't gone poking around for lottery operated VLT's.
On the bar slots, the usual games include video keno and video poker - both with readily analyzable base* returns. I believe it is reasonable to assume that the "reel games" (or "line games") have similar returns.
Quote: MichaelBluejaySlots run by state lotteries. IGT says it supplies VLTs to several states, including most of those below, but I can’t find evidence of slot-style games in some of those states, and in only one state can I find RTPs. Can anyone help with data/info for these?
• LA: Purportedly video poker only, but I can't find evidence of even that.
link to original post
Vlt is class 2?
So the vp at Caesars new Orleans is bingo instead of random?
9/7 db isn't 99.1%?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: MichaelBluejaySlots run by state lotteries. IGT says it supplies VLTs to several states, including most of those below, but I can’t find evidence of slot-style games in some of those states, and in only one state can I find RTPs. Can anyone help with data/info for these?
• LA: Purportedly video poker only, but I can't find evidence of even that.
link to original post
Vlt is class 2?
So the vp at Caesars new Orleans is bingo instead of random?
9/7 db isn't 99.1%?
link to original post
Louisiana has four types of casinos:
1. Native American casinos: Coushatta, Paragon, Cypress Bayou, and Choctaw Pines. The first three have slots, video poker, and table games; not sure about CP.
2. Commercial casinos: unless otherwise noted, all have slots, video poker, and table games:
2a. Lake Charles has L'Auberge Lake Charles, Golden Nugget, and Horseshoe
2b. Baton Rouge has L'Auberge Baton Rouge, Queen, and Belle (no tables currrently)
2c. New Orleans area has Treasure Chest (Kenner), Boomtown (Harvey), Caesars (New Orleans), and Amelia Belle (Morgan City)
2d. Shreveport/Bossier City has Sam's Town, Bally's, Margaritaville, Horseshoe, Boomtown, and coming soon, Live!
3. Racinos with by law horse racing and slots only: Louisiana Downs, Delta Downs, and Evangeline Downs
4. Video Poker parlors (at countless truck stops throughout the state in parishes that allow gambling), with by law video poker only with a maximum 92% return. These parlors have weird games from companies that I suspect do not do business in Nevada.
As far as I know, all of the video poker is "honest": the low truck stop returns are due to awful paytables rather than gaffed machines.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Sidenote regarding Class II:
Quote: DogHandLouisiana has four types of casinos....Hope this helps!
Um, thanks. To be clear, what I'm looking for is:Quote: DieterI don't know if the Montana lottery kiosk I just saw counts as a "VLT". It certainly looked to be capable of playing video lottery games, but configured to print tickets only.
(1) Examples of government-owned or operated slot machines with reels (traditional Class III or Class II/bingo-based). The ones I know of are:
• Q Casino (racino owned by city of Dubuque, IA)
• Prairie Meadows (racing owned by Polk County, IA)
• Machines or online games operated by state lotteries in GA, MT, SD, OR
(2) RTP of those games, either the individual games or all the slot games as a whole, either theoretical or actual. I have payouts or RTPs already for:
• Q Casino
• Prairie Meadows
• OR lottery VLTs
Thanks!
The last day of dog racing was in 2022 (I think), and they started demolition of the track last year to make way for some other expansions. They've had table games since at least the late 1990's, when an ex-girlfriend worked in the cage (property was then named Dubuque Greyhound Park & Casino).
Prairie Meadows has a horse track on property, plus a variety of machines and tables.
I'd classify either as "casino (formerly) with race track".
As far as I know, "racino" is a term for certain limited gaming license properties in Ohio and New York, although I think the term could fairly be used at select properties elsewhere (Arkansas and Kentucky come to mind).
Thank you, I stand corrected.Quote: DieterI don't think Q is a racino. The last day of dog racing was in 2022...
The definition in Wikipedia is the one I imagined, a racetrack with slots.Quote: DieterAs far as I know, "racino" is a term for certain limited gaming license properties in Ohio and New York...
