The Easy Vegas thread

I wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?

The first thing that stood out: the "People who say..." table uses the acronym MHB before the term "Must Hit By" is even mentioned. For that matter, you don't ever specify that MHB means Must Hit By, even though you do specify what VSM means right above it.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

I wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?
link to original post

Advantage play still exists on cruise ships. I found a Regal Riches with 72 purple last month! Scarabs on game #7 loaded with wilds. Star Goddess ready to blow up the whole screen.

I agree with a comment on the Reddit thread. Variable state games are only valuable when they first come out. Soon, the vultures all learn the entry points and the casual players learn not to leave the machine in a state where vultures are in the seat a millisecond after they stand up.

I have never multi-carded. It seems like a lot of work and has a lot of pitfalls. Card runners are still a thing, so I suppose it still works in a shrinking number of casinos. Still, a small edge on large volume can amount to a significant income. Finding a Scarab in a good state is great, but the amount of coin in is really small for the penny denom games.

I am glad you mentioned that the MHB machines do not use a uniform probability distribution to pick the MHB target value. I would say that most use a really deceptive probability distribution biased toward higher trigger values. (Think AGS River Dragons.) I know of one vendor that chooses the maximum must-hit-by value 10% of the time. This means that 10% of the time, the actual jackpot payout is higher than the MHB value listed on the screen by a few cents.

You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.

For some reasons that I cannot fathom, online casinos have been much more generous with free slot play than B&M casinos. Their slots typically have half the house edge versus B&M casinos, but their VP is usually tighter.

Quote: Mental

You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.

I don't believe that to be the case. Most of those games are not server based and just talk to the progressive controller which is usually in the base of the slot cabinet.

Quote: DRich

Quote: Mental

You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.

I don't believe that to be the case. Most of those games are not server based and just talk to the progressive controller which is usually in the base of the slot cabinet.
link to original post

My only information regarding this is inferred from reading gambling regulations. A google search throws up many hits for regulations about progressive controllers. I don't know how common it is for the progressive controller to be outside a cabinet. I assume it has to be outside the cabinet for linked progressives. I can't think of any linked MHB progressives off the top of my head
https://casetext.com/regulation/new-jersey-administrative-code/title-13-law-and-public-safety/chapter-69d-gaming-operation-accounting-controls-and-standards/subchapter-1-general-provisions/section-1369d-139-progressive-slot-machine-jackpots

Quote:

(b) When a progressive controller does not reside within the main program of a slot machine, the controller shall either be sealed by the Division or stored in a compartment or cabinet which has two separate locks. The key to one lock shall be maintained and controlled by the security department, and the key to the second lock shall be maintained and controlled by the slot department. Compartments or cabinets shall contain a progressive entry authorization log in accordance with N.J.A.C. 13:69D-1.36(j).

https://assets.ctfassets.net/j16ev64qyf6l/3QWtHnDH80kKackdO38ib6/8cc75ab27cc2cfe1d008dbc5c609f476/Machine-technical-standards-linked-progressives.pdf

Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on the subject.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

I wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?
link to original post

Quote:

Know that the best slot APs can earn a comfortable living, but that's it.

None of us know what the best slot APs make. The best team leaders/bankrollers probably make more money than you can imagine. The vast majority of independents and worker bees probably don't make anywhere near a 'comfortable living' as I would define the term. It would be interesting if we could know the real story because a lot of what APs say publicly about there income is BS. Most probably don't have good enough records to be able to give an honest answer.

When I am in Las Vegas, I see 20 people per hour checking the same penny game. It is hard to see much income potential in a very competitive market.

Quote: Mental

Quote: DRich

Quote: Mental

You might also mention that this MHB value is usually kept on a server in a carefully guarded room off the casino floor. The MHB progressive is constantly polling the server to find out whether it should trigger the payout. They do this to prevent insiders from learning the exact payout value and exploiting this knowledge. It has been a while since I researched this, so maybe someone else can help you with the jackpot server details.

I don't believe that to be the case. Most of those games are not server based and just talk to the progressive controller which is usually in the base of the slot cabinet.
link to original post

My only information regarding this is inferred from reading gambling regulations. A google search throws up many hits for regulations about progressive controllers. I don't know how common it is for the progressive controller to be outside a cabinet. I assume it has to be outside the cabinet for linked progressives. I can't think of any linked MHB progressives off the top of my head
https://casetext.com/regulation/new-jersey-administrative-code/title-13-law-and-public-safety/chapter-69d-gaming-operation-accounting-controls-and-standards/subchapter-1-general-provisions/section-1369d-139-progressive-slot-machine-jackpots

Quote:

(b) When a progressive controller does not reside within the main program of a slot machine, the controller shall either be sealed by the Division or stored in a compartment or cabinet which has two separate locks. The key to one lock shall be maintained and controlled by the security department, and the key to the second lock shall be maintained and controlled by the slot department. Compartments or cabinets shall contain a progressive entry authorization log in accordance with N.J.A.C. 13:69D-1.36(j).

https://assets.ctfassets.net/j16ev64qyf6l/3QWtHnDH80kKackdO38ib6/8cc75ab27cc2cfe1d008dbc5c609f476/Machine-technical-standards-linked-progressives.pdf

Thanks in advance for any light you can shed on the subject.
link to original post

I have designed a couple of progressive controllers, one a standard local progressive while the other one was for s state-wide progressive. Historically the local ones were stored in a slot machine base in a metal box with a secondary lock on it.

Quote: Mental

It would be interesting if we could know the real story because a lot of what APs say publicly about there income is BS.]

From what I’ve seen BS and gambling go together like best friends. You can hardly pry them apart

Thanks, guys, this is really helpful stuff. I made lots of edits to the article. Mental, I quoted you in the VSS section.

Someone PM'd me about this thread (saying he didn't want to post publicly for personal reasons), suggesting I add a fourth slot AP method, non-MHB progressives (normal progressives) that get positive. I'm skeptical of this, because it's nearly impossible to know when a progressive has turned positive, and the situations where a slot becomes positive (and you know it) have to be exceptionally rare. But again, this is not my field of expertise, so what say you?

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Thanks, guys, this is really helpful stuff. I made lots of edits to the article. Mental, I quoted you in the VSS section.

Someone PM'd me about this thread (saying he didn't want to post publicly for personal reasons), suggesting I add a fourth slot AP method, non-MHB progressives (normal progressives) that get positive. I'm skeptical of this, because it's nearly impossible to know when a progressive has turned positive, and the situations where a slot becomes positive (and you know it) have to be exceptionally rare. But again, this is not my field of expertise, so what say you?
link to original post

DRich says external jackpot controllers are not used very often for standalone MHB games.

I did follow one non-MHB progressive that often got +EV due to a 3% meter rate. That is key. If the meter rate is low it will almost never get positive and it will probably take a very long time to hit. I have hit this progressive myself or seen it hit by someone else 12 times. That is enough to get a good estimate of the hit frequency. When I only had 5 data points, I thought the +EV point was $15K, but now I believe it is $19-20K. It may be possible to get a good number right off the bat by having access to a par sheet.

I found that nobody else would play the game hard below $30K. This meant I could walk away and usually come back another day. I did lose one progressive to someone else when I took a vacation when it was at $32K. I also ran one up to $49K before I hit. I put almost $1M coin in to get the damn thing. I ended up a winner on that chase, but I did experience a $80K drawdown after a very lucky start. This is not recommended for the faint of heart.

The progressive I tracked was a mystery none-MHB progressive. This means the only way to measure the hit cycle is to observe many hit cycles.

There are plenty of traditional progressives where you need to line up some symbols on reels to trigger a jackpot. You can get a very good estimate of the cycle for these sorts of games by counting the frequencies of the jackpot symbols on the pay line. I have never paid much attention to this type. Whenever I looked into them, the entry value was way above the current value. I am sure there are APs who watch this sort of progressive and find some good plays if they are patient and persistent. The meters typically move very slowly, and you don't need to check them very often. You also won't have much competition from others APs.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

I wrote an extremely general article on Slot Advantage Play that I'm submitting to this forum for peer review. I think I know the basics from being in the community, and I've played MHB's profitably, but never as a pro, so there's a good chance that some of what I wrote is incomplete or wrong. What do you all think?

For a site tited "easy" Vegas, you sure did miss out some of the easiest advantages: signup bonuses and promotions.

Well, you can do a signup bonus only once, unless you're multicarding, and that's covered under multicarding. But it's a good suggestion, so I'll add something about those.

An acceptable counter argument is that in Las Vegas someone can do a signup bonus dozens of times working alone.

Another argument is that getting an advantage once is like infinitely better than getting it zero times.

Also, I see easy.vegas already has a page on American Casino Guide and Las Vegas Advisor coupon books. Can link to that as a way to get an advantage for the player.

Okay, Tom, I rewrote the article based on your suggestions. See what you think.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Okay, Tom, I rewrote the article based on your suggestions. See what you think.
link to original post

I think it is a pretty good article.

Quote:

Failing that, you could monitor the game and record at what level the jackpot hits, then once you've got data for several hits, take the median figure. That could take months. Have fun.

This should literally say 'months or years'. I have been monitoring this jackpot at 10 online casino for over three years. Some of the casinos shut down or removed the game before it ever hit. It took over a year before I had any confidence in my estimate. Three years of data monitoring multiple casinos is barely enough data for me. Even when the progressive is high , it is a very time consuming and risky play.

I have see some big jackpots at B&M casinos that went for decades and never hit at all.