Gambling - Miscellaneous Discussion Thread
Quote: AxelWolfKinda like playing the lottery, but that's even worst. Let that sink in for a longer moment.
I stopped doing Lottery posts after I lost like $150 on Lottery tickets recently when I got a big paycheck. I overshot and lost.
Quote: RigondeauxThis made me think of another question.
How hard is it for a rec in other forms of gambling to be a lifetime winner?
Let's suppose instead of playing lotto once a week, you go to a casino once a week and play 4 hours of A) table games. B) Vp. C) normal slots. D) slots with a large progressive. Say, over 250k.
You do this for 25 years.
Chances to a) win overall. B) be up big. Whatever that is. 10k units?
Everyone tells me they are about even. I don't know how these joints stay in business.
Even for the bus?Quote: LoneStarLylaThe casino closest to me has free parking.
Quote: AxelWolfEven for the bus?
Of course silly. :) The bus brings in all the people with money to play.
People who ride the bus have money? If so, why are the people on the bus always asking Nathan and Kenty for money?Quote: LoneStarLylaOf course silly. :) The bus brings in all the people with money to play.
Quote: AxelWolfPeople who ride the bus have money? If so, why are the people on the bus always asking Nathan and Kenty for money?
did u take the short bus to school?
Close to a personal insult. Please don't go there.Quote: WatchMeWindid u take the short bus to school?
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
lQuote: OnceDearClose to a personal insult. Please don't go there.
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
He knows I love him.. Just throwing Jabs like good friends do back n forth.
Quote: Rigondeaux
How hard is it for a rec in other forms of gambling to be a lifetime winner?
Let's suppose instead of playing lotto once a week, you go to a casino once a week and play 4 hours of A) table games. B) Vp. C) normal slots. D) slots with a large progressive. Say, over 250k.
You do this for 25 years.
Chances to a) win overall. B) be up big. Whatever that is. 10k units?
Cool question! You're talking 5,200 hours, so different games having different levels of Variance, it's going to be kind of difficult to answer.
AA.) Table Games + Win Overall
It's going to depend on the game and the house edge. I did a simulation of 10,000 people playing 312,000 hands of Blackjack with a house edge of 0.46% and it said about 2% come out ahead after that by varying numbers of units.
AB.) Table Games + 10k Units:
Given 312,000 hands of Blackjack, this is essentially not possible.
Table Games Overall:
It depends on the game, Variance, house edge and number of plays you're getting per hour.
To prove my point, take European Roulette, only one zero. Your number has a 1/37 chance of coming up, and we're going to do it that way, because you need as much variance as possible. Figure thirty spins per hour, so 156,000 total spins in that time.
You need 156000 * .027 = 4,212 is how many units you expect to lose under normal circumstances. You win 36 units every time your number comes up and it is expected to come up 4,216.216 times in that sample. However, you need it to come up an extra (4212/36) = 117 times, so about 4334 times total, or more.
Answer: 0.033625 Which is to say about 3.3625%.
If you look at 00 Roulette, though, it gets a little tougher:
156000 * .0526 = 8,205.6 (Expected Loss in Units)
Okay, so now you need 8205.6/36 = 227.933 or an extra 228 over the 4105.26 times it is expected to hit your number to at least break even. In other words, you need it to hit 4334 times (or more) again, but the probability is less.
Answer: 0.000153 or about 1/0.000153 = 1 in 6,535.9477 will see a gain on that many spins in Roulette, which assumes 30 spins an hour.
That doesn't make it comparable to Blackjack, though, because you're risking much less money on the Roulette as it plays slower.
Being ahead by 10k units is also something that's not happening in any case, unless you're also playing some sort of massive progressive side bet, or something, but that would seem to go against what I take, "Table games," to mean. Side bets that essentially amount to a dealt royal in five cards or seven cards essentially ARE the lottery.
BA.) Video Poker + Win Overall:
At 800 hands per hour, that's 4,160,000 hands of Video Poker, isn't that crazy? I just mean in the sense that it seems like a lot, but is obviously very doable.
This obviously all depends upon the game! If it's an advantageous game, then you're far greater than 50% likely to finish ahead by some number of credits! If you have 9/6 Jacks or Better, then Beating Bonuses has come up with 4 out of 300 people so far. I'm sorry I'm not willing to do more than that, but each simulation is taking forever and I'm simulating 100 at a time.
I can believe it, though. It's all about how well you run on Royals, really.
Think about it like this:
Each Royal you hit gives you 800 credits and you're expected to play 800/.0046 (House Edge) = 173,913.043 hands in order to lose 800 credits. Therefore, if you run extremely well on Royals (basically 3SD well) , then you can play that many hands and finish ahead.
If you have 9/5 JoB, then the HE is 1.55% or .0155 (Rounded). Absent Free Play or any promotions, each 800 credits for a Royal is expected to get you 800/.0155 = 51,612.9032 hands. I'm not going to do the math on it, but I imagine you might have an EXTREME outlier who catches enough royals to survive that many hands on that game and come out ahead, but I put, "Extreme," in all caps for a reason.
BB.) VP + 10k Units Ahead
As far as finishing 10k units ahead, I'm going to go back to 9/6 Jacks and use a binomial distribution. If we figure that we are going to play 4,160,000 hands of Video Poker, then our expected loss is:
4160000 * .0046 = 19,136 units (hands).
The first thing we see is that we need 19136/800 = 23.92, "Extra," Royals to get us to break even whereas we need another 10000/800 = 12.5 Royals to get us the extra 10k units. In total, we need about 36.42, "Extra" Royals, so we'll call it 37.
In 4,160,000 hands, we're expected to get 4160000 * 0.00002476 = 103.0016 or 103 Royals in the first place. If we add in the 37 extra royals, now we want to get 140 royals in 4160000 hands.
So, now we go o a Binomial Distribution calculator:
http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html
With normal distribution, the probability of 140 Royals, or more, is: 0.000159
Thus, I would suggest the probability of finishing 10k units ahead on 9/6 Jacks after 4,160,000 hands is about 1/0.000159 = 6,289.31
So, worse than 1 in 6,000.
We can actually do 9/5 Jacks about the same way:
4160000*.0155 = 64,480 (Expected Units/Hands Lost)
64480/800 = 80.6 Royals
4160000 * 0.000025 = 104
So, you essentially want a minimum of 184 Royals to have any chance of finishing ahead, but more likely 185 or more. I'm going to do 185 on the Binomial Distribution Calculator:
Result: <0.000001
In other words, it's going to take an extreme outlier at that sample size to run up enough, "Extra Royals," to finish ahead at 9/5 JoB straight up over 4,160,000 hands.
CA.) Slots + Finish Ahead
Nope.
I mean, technically it's going to be a function of the Variance. Also, are we vulturing advantageous slots for four hours a week for 25 years? If that's the case and somehow the person only plays advantageous situations, I'd put the probability of finishing ahead at 100%!
Honestly, though, over some four million spins...you lose. That's it. No other possibility on most machines. The machine would have to have a huge jackpot relative to the amount bet, and even then, that jackpot would have to be hit well over the expected number of times.
You figure that if a high denomination slot is, "Really good," you're still giving up 4-5% playing straight up. 4,000,000 spins, you're expected to lose 200,000 units at 5%. I can only think of a few slot machines where I would suggest finishing ahead is even possible, given those parameters.
If you mean 10%+ penny slots? Nope. You lose. The end. Not possible.
CB.) Slots + Finish 10k+ Units Ahead:
Again, it has to be a ridiculously huge top jackpot relative to the amount bet and the person needs to hit it at a more than expected quip. Extremely rare, but possible.
DA. + DB.) Without hitting the Progressive, 0%. It's the same question. If you know the probability of the Progressive hitting, just pop that bad boy into a Binomial Distribution against the 4,000,000 some spins the person is going to take over that time, and the probability of it hitting is essentially the probability of the person finishing ahead and/or ahead by 10k units.
I assume you're talking about something like MegaBucks, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Quote: MaxPenEveryone tells me they are about even. I don't know how these joints stay in business.
Everybody does leave Vegas about even, that's why they have to charge for parking now.
Casino Exec: "Listen, he just told you, we didn't make a dime off of him!"
Fair comment. Some of us know each-other and don't take offence because of that. However, we don't want to encourage some newbie to think personal insults are OK here. There was recently a case where a member was apparently very insulting to another and ended up getting suspended, even though no offence was taken. Just trying to prevent that sort of issue.Quote: WatchMeWinlQuote: OnceDearClose to a personal insult. Please don't go there.
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
He knows I love him.. Just throwing Jabs like good friends do back n forth.
Quote: OnceDearFair comment. Some of us know each-other and don't take offence because of that. However, we don't want to encourage some newbie to think personal insults are OK here. There was recently a case where a member was apparently very insulting to another and ended up getting suspended, even though no offence was taken. Just trying to prevent that sort of issue.Quote: WatchMeWinlQuote: OnceDearClose to a personal insult. Please don't go there.
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
He knows I love him.. Just throwing Jabs like good friends do back n forth.
Understood... but I swear that I saw him on the back of that bus jumping around like Jimmy Superfly Snuka! Ha
Quote: Mission146Everybody does leave Vegas about even, that's why they have to charge for parking now.
Casino Exec: "Listen, he just told you, we didn't make a dime off of him!"
Doesn't the majority of Vegas' revenue come from non-gambling activities now, vs. 10+ years ago? I wonder if that affects the parking situation somehow...
Quote: TigerWuDoesn't the majority of Vegas' revenue come from non-gambling activities now, vs. 10+ years ago? I wonder if that affects the parking situation somehow...
That's absolutely correct. I wouldn't say it affects the parking situation as much as the parking situation affects it. Now an even greater percentage of revenue will come from non-gambling.
LOL.Quote: WatchMeWinQuote: OnceDearFair comment. Some of us know each-other and don't take offence because of that. However, we don't want to encourage some newbie to think personal insults are OK here. There was recently a case where a member was apparently very insulting to another and ended up getting suspended, even though no offence was taken. Just trying to prevent that sort of issue.Quote: WatchMeWinlQuote: OnceDearClose to a personal insult. Please don't go there.
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
He knows I love him.. Just throwing Jabs like good friends do back n forth.
Understood... but I swear that I saw him on the back of that bus jumping around like Jimmy Superfly Snuka! Ha
You know how it is when something looks and feels like an insult, but the specifics such as an unfamiliar actor's name is unfamiliar to you... So, being a conscientious moderator, you go off and google it?
...
Well, I went off and googled it and came up with this quote"The 73-year-old is thought to be suffering from dementia and is considered unable to answer charges over the death of Nancy Argentino in 1983".
...
So, I'm forced to deduce that you are comparing someone to a bandana wearing dead guy, celebrated actor, a skilled wrestler, an alleged murderer, a guy with dementia...
No big insult there, matey... except I think it's a bit offensive to suggest that anyone would be seen dead in that flowery pink bandana :o)
Quote: OnceDearLOL.Quote: WatchMeWinQuote: OnceDearFair comment. Some of us know each-other and don't take offence because of that. However, we don't want to encourage some newbie to think personal insults are OK here. There was recently a case where a member was apparently very insulting to another and ended up getting suspended, even though no offence was taken. Just trying to prevent that sort of issue.Quote: WatchMeWinlQuote: OnceDearClose to a personal insult. Please don't go there.
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
He knows I love him.. Just throwing Jabs like good friends do back n forth.
Understood... but I swear that I saw him on the back of that bus jumping around like Jimmy Superfly Snuka! Ha
You know how it is when something looks and feels like an insult, but the specifics such as an unfamiliar actor's name is unfamiliar to you... So, being a conscientious moderator, you go off and google it?
...
Well, I went off and googled it and came up with this quote"The 73-year-old is thought to be suffering from dementia and is considered unable to answer charges over the death of Nancy Argentino in 1983".
...
So, I'm forced to deduce that you are comparing someone to a bandana wearing dead guy, celebrated actor, a skilled wrestler, an alleged murderer, a guy with dementia...
No big insult there, matey... except I think it's a bit offensive to suggest that anyone would be seen dead in that flowery pink bandana :o)
Pandora's Box is always filled with pleasant surprises.
Only if you don’t close it too quickly.Quote: WatchMeWinQuote: OnceDearLOL.Quote: WatchMeWinQuote: OnceDearFair comment. Some of us know each-other and don't take offence because of that. However, we don't want to encourage some newbie to think personal insults are OK here. There was recently a case where a member was apparently very insulting to another and ended up getting suspended, even though no offence was taken. Just trying to prevent that sort of issue.Quote: WatchMeWinlQuote: OnceDearClose to a p?term=ride%20the%20short%20bus]personal insult. Please don't go there.
I'd like to lay to rest the suggestion that the new member is an alter ego of a known member or ex-member.
He knows I love him.. Just throwing Jabs like good friends do back n forth.
Understood... but I swear that I saw him on the back of that bus jumping around like Jimmy Superfly Snuka! Ha
You know how it is when something looks and feels like an insult, but the specifics such as an unfamiliar actor's name is unfamiliar to you... So, being a conscientious moderator, you go off and google it?
...
Well, I went off and googled it and came up with this quote"The 73-year-old is thought to be suffering from dementia and is considered unable to answer charges over the death of Nancy Argentino in 1983".
...
So, I'm forced to deduce that you are comparing someone to [EDITED TO DELETE LINK I AM TOO NEW TO POST]
No big insult there, matey... except I think it's a bit offensive to suggest that anyone would be seen dead in that flowery pink bandana :o)
Pandora's Box is always filled with pleasant surprises.
Crazy about Supafly. Did not know that story. I remember him as a child jumping from the top rope.
Nickel and Dime you parking, for this, for that.... have to make up for all those clubbers and show goers who rarely even enter the casino much less part with substantial bucks there.
And if you are going to get nickel and dimed to death in Vegas, why bother going there at all when there are casinos just about everywhere and they are all just about 'okay' but don't require lengthy flights and TSA patdowns.
Just as the casinos are beginning to feel the squeeze, so too are their customers who are getting squeezed by parking charges and just don't like it even if the money is just about peanuts. The changed attitude is what grates the worst.
Casinos are becoming more and more widespread. Gambling laws in my state were recently expanded. Japan recently legalized casinos, and the Chinese companies are expanding throughout the region as well.
Vegas is going to have to do something to compete with all of this. Maybe they're going to go the entertainment/convention route and just say "screw the gambling," or maybe they're going to start going back to 3-2 BJ and free parking and looser comps and whatever else used to make Vegas the place to be.
Quote: FleaStiffMaybe this is a bit off topic but the vast increase in NON-gambling activities in Vegas probably does have some effect on the casino suddenly looking at parking charges, resort fees, elevator charges, show ticket charges, etc. just as it has a lot of would-be gamblers looking at the local Indian casinos instead of trekking to Las Vegas for what used to be but is no longer.
Nickel and Dime you parking, for this, for that.... have to make up for all those clubbers and show goers who rarely even enter the casino much less part with substantial bucks there.
And if you are going to get nickel and dimed to death in Vegas, why bother going there at all when there are casinos just about everywhere and they are all just about 'okay' but don't require lengthy flights and TSA patdowns.
Just as the casinos are beginning to feel the squeeze, so too are their customers who are getting squeezed by parking charges and just don't like it even if the money is just about peanuts. The changed attitude is what grates the worst.
I think you might be a little off track here.
It's not that the need to "make up for" other patrons, it's that many of them are more profitable.
$1,400 to sit at a table at a club and get one bottle of vodka. The kicker is, they give you cheap Vodka!
Not many gamblers generate -$1400 ev in a few hours.
That's on a normal night. During Mayweather McGregor, tables were 50k.
And you don't even have to give these people comps or anything.
Then some will still hit the tables. Drop $1k on dinner. Send their women shopping. Etc.
Quote: Mission146Cool question! You're talking 5,200 hours, so different games having different levels of Variance, it's going to be kind of difficult to answer.
AA.) Table Games + Win Overall
It's going to depend on the game and the house edge. I did a simulation of 10,000 people playing 312,000 hands of Blackjack with a house edge of 0.46% and it said about 2% come out ahead after that by varying numbers of units.
AB.) Table Games + 10k Units:
Given 312,000 hands of Blackjack, this is essentially not possible.
Table Games Overall:
It depends on the game, Variance, house edge and number of plays you're getting per hour.
To prove my point, take European Roulette, only one zero. Your number has a 1/37 chance of coming up, and we're going to do it that way, because you need as much variance as possible. Figure thirty spins per hour, so 156,000 total spins in that time.
You need 156000 * .027 = 4,212 is how many units you expect to lose under normal circumstances. You win 36 units every time your number comes up and it is expected to come up 4,216.216 times in that sample. However, you need it to come up an extra (4212/36) = 117 times, so about 4334 times total, or more.
Answer: 0.033625 Which is to say about 3.3625%.
If you look at 00 Roulette, though, it gets a little tougher:
156000 * .0526 = 8,205.6 (Expected Loss in Units)
Okay, so now you need 8205.6/36 = 227.933 or an extra 228 over the 4105.26 times it is expected to hit your number to at least break even. In other words, you need it to hit 4334 times (or more) again, but the probability is less.
Answer: 0.000153 or about 1/0.000153 = 1 in 6,535.9477 will see a gain on that many spins in Roulette, which assumes 30 spins an hour.
That doesn't make it comparable to Blackjack, though, because you're risking much less money on the Roulette as it plays slower.
Being ahead by 10k units is also something that's not happening in any case, unless you're also playing some sort of massive progressive side bet, or something, but that would seem to go against what I take, "Table games," to mean. Side bets that essentially amount to a dealt royal in five cards or seven cards essentially ARE the lottery.
BA.) Video Poker + Win Overall:
At 800 hands per hour, that's 4,160,000 hands of Video Poker, isn't that crazy? I just mean in the sense that it seems like a lot, but is obviously very doable.
This obviously all depends upon the game! If it's an advantageous game, then you're far greater than 50% likely to finish ahead by some number of credits! If you have 9/6 Jacks or Better, then Beating Bonuses has come up with 4 out of 300 people so far. I'm sorry I'm not willing to do more than that, but each simulation is taking forever and I'm simulating 100 at a time.
I can believe it, though. It's all about how well you run on Royals, really.
Think about it like this:
Each Royal you hit gives you 800 credits and you're expected to play 800/.0046 (House Edge) = 173,913.043 hands in order to lose 800 credits. Therefore, if you run extremely well on Royals (basically 3SD well) , then you can play that many hands and finish ahead.
If you have 9/5 JoB, then the HE is 1.55% or .0155 (Rounded). Absent Free Play or any promotions, each 800 credits for a Royal is expected to get you 800/.0155 = 51,612.9032 hands. I'm not going to do the math on it, but I imagine you might have an EXTREME outlier who catches enough royals to survive that many hands on that game and come out ahead, but I put, "Extreme," in all caps for a reason.
BB.) VP + 10k Units Ahead
As far as finishing 10k units ahead, I'm going to go back to 9/6 Jacks and use a binomial distribution. If we figure that we are going to play 4,160,000 hands of Video Poker, then our expected loss is:
4160000 * .0046 = 19,136 units (hands).
The first thing we see is that we need 19136/800 = 23.92, "Extra," Royals to get us to break even whereas we need another 10000/800 = 12.5 Royals to get us the extra 10k units. In total, we need about 36.42, "Extra" Royals, so we'll call it 37.
In 4,160,000 hands, we're expected to get 4160000 * 0.00002476 = 103.0016 or 103 Royals in the first place. If we add in the 37 extra royals, now we want to get 140 royals in 4160000 hands.
So, now we go o a Binomial Distribution calculator:
http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html
With normal distribution, the probability of 140 Royals, or more, is: 0.000159
Thus, I would suggest the probability of finishing 10k units ahead on 9/6 Jacks after 4,160,000 hands is about 1/0.000159 = 6,289.31
So, worse than 1 in 6,000.
We can actually do 9/5 Jacks about the same way:
4160000*.0155 = 64,480 (Expected Units/Hands Lost)
64480/800 = 80.6 Royals
4160000 * 0.000025 = 104
So, you essentially want a minimum of 184 Royals to have any chance of finishing ahead, but more likely 185 or more. I'm going to do 185 on the Binomial Distribution Calculator:
Result: <0.000001
In other words, it's going to take an extreme outlier at that sample size to run up enough, "Extra Royals," to finish ahead at 9/5 JoB straight up over 4,160,000 hands.
CA.) Slots + Finish Ahead
Nope.
I mean, technically it's going to be a function of the Variance. Also, are we vulturing advantageous slots for four hours a week for 25 years? If that's the case and somehow the person only plays advantageous situations, I'd put the probability of finishing ahead at 100%!
Honestly, though, over some four million spins...you lose. That's it. No other possibility on most machines. The machine would have to have a huge jackpot relative to the amount bet, and even then, that jackpot would have to be hit well over the expected number of times.
You figure that if a high denomination slot is, "Really good," you're still giving up 4-5% playing straight up. 4,000,000 spins, you're expected to lose 200,000 units at 5%. I can only think of a few slot machines where I would suggest finishing ahead is even possible, given those parameters.
If you mean 10%+ penny slots? Nope. You lose. The end. Not possible.
CB.) Slots + Finish 10k+ Units Ahead:
Again, it has to be a ridiculously huge top jackpot relative to the amount bet and the person needs to hit it at a more than expected quip. Extremely rare, but possible.
DA. + DB.) Without hitting the Progressive, 0%. It's the same question. If you know the probability of the Progressive hitting, just pop that bad boy into a Binomial Distribution against the 4,000,000 some spins the person is going to take over that time, and the probability of it hitting is essentially the probability of the person finishing ahead and/or ahead by 10k units.
I assume you're talking about something like MegaBucks, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Wow Mission. Thanks for the response.
I think this further confirms my view that lotto is the smartest bet.
"Smart" recs playing "good" games once a week have a one in 6k chance of winning anything at all.
Winning a large amount is almost impossible, you say. Idk if that's smaller than the chances of winning lotto. However, I only set the bar at 10k units. That's a small lifestyle improvement... A few vacations or some better cars. While lotto makes you rich. Plus I think most little have pretty big scores for getting like 5/6.
The "smart" recreational players spend time learning strat and driving to the casino and playing the games.
The lotto player buys his tickets while getting some coffee he was going to buy anyway, then checks the results.
Quote: RigondeauxWow Mission. Thanks for the response.
I think this further confirms my view that lotto is the smartest bet.
"Smart" recs playing "good" games once a week have a one in 6k chance of winning anything at all.
Winning a large amount is almost impossible, you say. Idk if that's smaller than the chances of winning lotto. However, I only set the bar at 10k units. That's a small lifestyle improvement... A few vacations or some better cars. While lotto makes you rich. Plus I think most little have pretty big scores for getting like 5/6.
The "smart" recreational players spend time learning strat and driving to the casino and playing the games.
The lotto player buys his tickets while getting some coffee he was going to buy anyway, then checks the results.
I'm personally a little soured on Lottery after losing roughly $150 recently on losing Lottery tickets.
Quote: RigondeauxWow Mission. Thanks for the response.
I think this further confirms my view that lotto is the smartest bet.
"Smart" recs playing "good" games once a week have a one in 6k chance of winning anything at all.
Winning a large amount is almost impossible, you say. Idk if that's smaller than the chances of winning lotto. However, I only set the bar at 10k units. That's a small lifestyle improvement... A few vacations or some better cars. While lotto makes you rich. Plus I think most little have pretty big scores for getting like 5/6.
The "smart" recreational players spend time learning strat and driving to the casino and playing the games.
The lotto player buys his tickets while getting some coffee he was going to buy anyway, then checks the results.
You're welcome, although there's no need to thank me. It was a really fun question.
---The probabilities of winning, "Anything," were better than that for VP, Blackjack and Single-Zero Roulette. You're right that is where you end up on 9/6 JoB to win 10k units and that's not happening on the other JoB games with a worse return.
Anyway, it's tough for me to go with your conclusion because it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.
You can play just the Pick-4 for $0.50 in some states with a straight pick. If it hits, you win $2,500, otherwise, you lose:
(1/10000 * 2499.5) - (9999/10000 * .5) = -0.25
Ergo, your expected loss is $0.25, which is 50% of the total bet amount.
If you buy seven tickets per week for 25 years, you will have bought 9,100 tickets. You need two wins to show a profit and four wins to show a profit of at least 10,000 units ($5,000).
The probability of hitting two or more is: 0.231179 or 23.1179%
The probability of hitting four or more is 0.013958 or 1.3958%
Of course, you've also only exposed $4,550 dollars at an expected loss of $2,275. If you only play $4,550 on 9/6 Jacks, your expected loss is $20.93.
Conclusion
1.) That's your probability with the Pick-4, it gets worse with stuff like the Powerball.
2.) From a House Edge standpoint, every option except the lottery is better.
3.) From an expected loss per hour standpoint, the lottery is probably the best bet. If you buy a ticket on Thursday afternoon for a Saturday night drawing, are you technically, 'Playing,' for more than 48 hours? If the ticket costs a dollar, then your expected loss per hour is essentially two pennies.
4.) From an expected $$$ lost standpoint, every option except the lottery is better for the same amount of money. It seems to me that you're stipulating making less in total lottery wagers, at least, I hope so.
So, the amount bet multiplied by the House Edge is your expected loss. I think with the lottery you're not playing a, "Better," game, you're just betting a hell of a lot less in dollars compared to four hours a week in a casino for 25 years.
But, yeah, if someone wanted to buy seven $1 tickets per week and never set foot in a casino, I'd hardly begrudge them for that and would conclude that they will lose less money than the average person who goes to a casino for four hours per week for twenty-five years. Much like sticking to one's betting/loss limits in a casino, though, the key is not to suddenly buy more than those seven (or however many) tickets per week.
Final Caveat
If you wanted to make it apples-to-apples, let's say we did 100,000 Pick-4 tickets. You would spend $50,000 on tickets and would need to hit 20 of them to break even or more than that to show a profit:
With normal distribution, you're at: 0.00135 or 0.135%
You need to win 22 of them to be ahead 10,000 $0.50 units.
0.000136 or about 1 in 7352.94 with normal distribution.
Even with all of that Variance, it's still less likely with only $50,000 in total bets than placing over five million dollars in bets with 9/6 JoB.
It seems like if you bet less money on negative expectation games, you lose less. If you bet the same amount, you lose less the less negative expectation they are. If you bet none, you lose none.
Quote: NathanI'm personally a little soured on Lottery after losing roughly $150 recently on losing Lottery tickets.
Winners never quit
Quote: djatcWinners never quit
Exactly :D but sometimes we must learn when to quit
I worked at a convenience store in Texas when the state lottery was first implemented. They had just one game, a $1 scratcher. In six months, I had exactly ONE person cash in a winning ticket for cash. All the other hundreds of winners exchanged their winning tickets for more tickets.
Morons!
Once in a blue moon I played the lottery in Colorado, and if I won, I had to tell the cashier "I'll take the cash" because their default response is "more tickets?".
It's really sad how the lottery preys upon the poor and stupid.
Those idiots should be playing roulette instead.Quote: KevinAAThe lottery makes tons of money from people who exchange winning small $ tickets for more tickets. This effectively increases the house edge dramatically, from about 25-35% (for scratch-off games, 50% for draw numbers games) to ... I don't know, 99%? Absolutely awful way to play.
I worked at a convenience store in Texas when the state lottery was first implemented. They had just one game, a $1 scratcher. In six months, I had exactly ONE person cash in a winning ticket for cash. All the other hundreds of winners exchanged their winning tickets for more tickets.
Morons!
Once in a blue moon I played the lottery in Colorado, and if I won, I had to tell the cashier "I'll take the cash" because their default response is "more tickets?".
It's really sad how the lottery preys upon the poor and stupid.
Quote: KevinAAThe lottery makes tons of money from people who exchange winning small $ tickets for more tickets. This effectively increases the house edge dramatically, from about 25-35% (for scratch-off games, 50% for draw numbers games) to ... I don't know, 99%? Absolutely awful way to play.
I worked at a convenience store in Texas when the state lottery was first implemented. They had just one game, a $1 scratcher. In six months, I had exactly ONE person cash in a winning ticket for cash. All the other hundreds of winners exchanged their winning tickets for more tickets.
Morons!
Once in a blue moon I played the lottery in Colorado, and if I won, I had to tell the cashier "I'll take the cash" because their default response is "more tickets?".
It's really sad how the lottery preys upon the poor and stupid.
I remember like 13 years ago, there was a "prize" that was TICKET, meaning you had to redeem it for another ticket. One of the worst prizes of all time. Someone said something like,"A prize for another ticket is really insulting. I wonder when these idiots will get a clue and realize they are being played with this free ticket prize. At least the face value ticket where you get exactly what you paid for back have some value. You have a chance to go get a fast food meal instead with say a $5 ticket. But THE TICKET prize is God awful." The TICKET prize was shortly removed as a "prize," after the observant person said that. ;)
Quote: onenickelmiracleI don't see why anyone would be surprised there is a chance to get ahead with the lottery. However, this doesn't take into account taxes. Even then, the lottery would still be one of the only ways without having an advantage. This concept is the whole inspiration for penny slots, many small bets(each line a bet).
Why is it most people only bring up taxes when talking about the lottery. Obviously taxes are due on all winnings even if it is only a $5 BJ or slot win.
Quote: NathanQuote: KevinAAThe lottery makes tons of money from people who exchange winning small $ tickets for more tickets. This effectively increases the house edge dramatically, from about 25-35% (for scratch-off games, 50% for draw numbers games) to ... I don't know, 99%? Absolutely awful way to play.
I worked at a convenience store in Texas when the state lottery was first implemented. They had just one game, a $1 scratcher. In six months, I had exactly ONE person cash in a winning ticket for cash. All the other hundreds of winners exchanged their winning tickets for more tickets.
Morons!
Once in a blue moon I played the lottery in Colorado, and if I won, I had to tell the cashier "I'll take the cash" because their default response is "more tickets?".
It's really sad how the lottery preys upon the poor and stupid.
I remember like 13 years ago, there was a "prize" that was TICKET, meaning you had to redeem it for another ticket. One of the worst prizes of all time. Someone said something like,"A prize for another ticket is really insulting. I wonder when these idiots will get a clue and realize they are being played with this free ticket prize. At least the face value ticket where you get exactly what you paid for back have some value. You have a chance to go get a fast food meal instead with say a $5 ticket. But THE TICKET prize is God awful." The TICKET prize was shortly removed as a "prize," after the observant person said that. ;)
Nobody takes the 5 dollars they win from the lottery, they just buy more tickets with the money. Win,win for the lottery people.
Quote: DRichWhy is it most people only bring up taxes when talking about the lottery. Obviously taxes are due on all winnings even if it is only a $5 BJ or slot win.
Quote: FleaStiffI've always thought it foolish to consider these paltry amounts as 'winners'. Its an annoying little teaser similar to slot machine giving you one credit or something.
The difference is twofold:
1) it takes far more than two seconds (i.e. slot pull) to scratch off a lottery ticket, and orders of magnitude more than two seconds to wait for the next drawing (depends on game, twice daily minimum, usually longer).
2) It is not unusual to buy just one or two scratch-off tickets. Who puts such a paltry amount in a slot machine? You can't even put 40 cents into a 40 line penny machine. They're just completely different games.
But you are right, that wagering $100 total on a slot machine where you start with $20 (e.g. $1/pull and do it 100 times before going broke or cashing out a win), will increase the % of the original $20 you lose, on average.
Quote: vegasQuote: NathanQuote: KevinAAThe lottery makes tons of money from people who exchange winning small $ tickets for more tickets. This effectively increases the house edge dramatically, from about 25-35% (for scratch-off games, 50% for draw numbers games) to ... I don't know, 99%? Absolutely awful way to play.
I worked at a convenience store in Texas when the state lottery was first implemented. They had just one game, a $1 scratcher. In six months, I had exactly ONE person cash in a winning ticket for cash. All the other hundreds of winners exchanged their winning tickets for more tickets.
Morons!
Once in a blue moon I played the lottery in Colorado, and if I won, I had to tell the cashier "I'll take the cash" because their default response is "more tickets?".
It's really sad how the lottery preys upon the poor and stupid.
I remember like 13 years ago, there was a "prize" that was TICKET, meaning you had to redeem it for another ticket. One of the worst prizes of all time. Someone said something like,"A prize for another ticket is really insulting. I wonder when these idiots will get a clue and realize they are being played with this free ticket prize. At least the face value ticket where you get exactly what you paid for back have some value. You have a chance to go get a fast food meal instead with say a $5 ticket. But THE TICKET prize is God awful." The TICKET prize was shortly removed as a "prize," after the observant person said that. ;)
takes the 5 dollars they win from the lottery, they just buy moreo tickets with the money. Win,win for the lottery people.
With the face value ticket win, you have a CHANCE to stop playing and go get a fast food meal instead. With the TICKET prize you are forced to play another ticket.
I do think you are kind of playing as long as your money is in action.
This is why sports is also a good bet. $100 costs you about $5 for several weeks of action.
That would be funny walking around a casino, seeing someone win $5 and bringing that up.Quote: DRichWhy is it most people only bring up taxes when talking about the lottery. Obviously taxes are due on all winnings even if it is only a $5 BJ or slot win.
Quote: onenickelmiracleThat would be funny walking around a casino, seeing someone win $5 and bringing that up.
People who take the standard deduction for their federal taxes should not gamble. I think that if you take the standard deduction every win is taxable, but the losses of the losing hands cannot be deducted from the winnings. Is this correct?
Yes. That's why 90% of the people don't want anything to prove they've won when they have lost in reality. It's the stupid tax squared.Quote: ChesterDogPeople who take the standard deduction for their federal taxes should not gamble. I think that if you take the standard deduction every win is taxable, but the losses of the losing hands cannot be deducted from the winnings. Is this correct?
I saw that in the early seventies in Vegas. Woman from the Mid West put a red chip down on the craps layout, won a second red chip, took it to the cashier's window. Base dealer commented 'now she can go home and talk about her winnings in Vegas".Quote: onenickelmiracleThat would be funny walking around a casino, seeing someone win $5 and bringing that up.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI don't see why anyone would be surprised there is a chance to get ahead with the lottery. However, this doesn't take into account taxes. Even then, the lottery would still be one of the only ways without having an advantage. This concept is the whole inspiration for penny slots, many small bets(each line a bet).
Excellent point, my esteemed friend! Especially when those, "Taxes," are going to the same, "House," that's selling you the lottery tickets in the first place. My understanding is some states tax any lottery winnings $600, or more. I know it's $600 to draw a W2-G in Ohio. Technically, you're supposed to pay taxes on any net winnings for the year, but in practice, nobody does that.
As with any other W2-G, you can use your losses to write winnings off Federal taxes if you've lost as much or more gambling than you've won. However, that does not apply for state taxes in at least one state, again, Ohio. (That's the only state I know this point of law off the top of my head) In Ohio, you have to pay state income tax on any W2-G winnings regardless of whether or not you lost for the year overall if those winnings occurred in Ohio. There's no possible way to write it off. (May be different for people who take the standard deduction)
In fact, the casinos themselves actually have to deduct the State tax (but not the Federal), report it and pay it to the State of Ohio themselves.
Quote: DRichWhy is it most people only bring up taxes when talking about the lottery. Obviously taxes are due on all winnings even if it is only a $5 BJ or slot win.
Yeah, that happens.
It's because of arbitrarily low mandatory reporting thresholds for lottery, $600 in the case of Ohio. Further, the state income taxes are going to the very same entity (i.e. the government) that's hosting the game to begin with.
It would be like if the casino took x% off of your wins and called it a, "Casino tax."
Quote: RigondeauxYes, I am assuming a rec does not spend $1000 a week on lotto. Maybe between 1 and 10 dollars. Even up to 20, I guess.
I do think you are kind of playing as long as your money is in action.
This is why sports is also a good bet. $100 costs you about $5 for several weeks of action.
Some states have individual scratch tickets that cost more than $20.
Quote: Mission146Some states have individual scratch tickets that cost more than $20.
http://www.molottery.com/scratchers.do?method=singlegame&game=198
Quote: prozemahttp://www.molottery.com/scratchers.do?method=singlegame&game=198
Yeah, PA has a few for $30. Ohio, also.
https://www.hoosierlottery.com/games/scratch-offs/current-games/2242-ultimate-multiplier
Quote: HullabalooIndiana. $50 scratch tickets:
https://www.hoosierlottery.com/games/scratch-offs/current-games/2242-ultimate-multiplier
$50 for one scratch off ticket is disgusting. :( And I thought $25 for one scratch off ticket was disgusting. :(
