NCAA March Madness Sign up and discussion

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March 26th, 2018 at 8:46:26 AM permalink

Pretty good Miplet!!

Using the following assumptions, I've assigned probabilities to each scenario and estimated probability of each:
Mich 2-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (approx current odds)
Villanova 2-1 favorite over Kansas (approx current odds)
Kansas 3-2 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)
Villanova 3-1 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)
Kansas 3-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)
Villanova 4-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game) - 44.4%
If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 13.3%
If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 8.9%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 17.8%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool - 4.4%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 8.3%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool - 2.8%

After rounding to the nearest percent, I estimate my chances at 71%, Keenone's (combining both picks) at 26%, and Miplet/Terapined at 3%

terapined

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March 26th, 2018 at 8:48:48 AM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
Quote: MidwestAP
If I've figured it correctly, here is how the brackets play out.

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game)
If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool
If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool

I need to correct something, both Miplet and terapined still have a chance. I've revised the scenarios above.

OMG
This is great
I get to root for Sister Jeans team
Come on Loyloa
We are on a mission from god (always a small g for atheists)

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

gordonm888
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gordonm888

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March 26th, 2018 at 2:26:27 PM permalink

There should be a non-monetary You Suck award* for everyone who scores less than, say, 720 - a threshold which represents getting 1/3 of the possible points.

*Like: make us all post a gambling story from our past on a special "We Suck" thread

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

FleaStiff

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March 26th, 2018 at 3:39:15 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
There should be a non-monetary You Suck award* for everyone who scores less than, say, 720 - a threshold which represents getting 1/3 of the possible points.
*Like: make us all post a gambling story from our past on a special "We Suck" thread

But you all so enjoyed my bracket. And I do think the prize for my performance on this bracket thing should be monetary or at least it should be alcoholic.

Keeneone

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March 26th, 2018 at 7:41:44 PM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
-snip-
After rounding to the nearest percent, I estimate my chances at 71%, Keenone's (combining both picks) at 26%, and Miplet/Terapined at 3%

Thanks for the breakdown.
The Villanova vs Kansas matchup is just awesome. Both teams have been great all year. Really looking forward to the game.
Loyola-Chicago and Michigan both have great stories. It is pretty cool to have a #11 seed in the Final 4.

lilredrooster

lilredrooster

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March 27th, 2018 at 3:34:33 AM permalink

it looks like Kansas is a 5 or 5.5 point dog to Villanova

doesn't seem right to me and so it seems like Kansas is a good bet especially if you can get 5.5

sports stats geek Jeff Sagarin gives Kansas a 91.87 point rating and gives Villanova a 95.59 point rating

that's a 3.72 point difference based on what those figures are meant to represent

not that Sagarin knows all or is infallible but still Kansas looks good to me getting this many points for other reasons

Sagarin's stats also indicate that the Big 12 is a tougher conference than the Big East

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/2018/conference/

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

SM777

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March 27th, 2018 at 6:19:37 AM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
Pretty good Miplet!!

Using the following assumptions, I've assigned probabilities to each scenario and estimated probability of each:
Mich 2-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (approx current odds)
Villanova 2-1 favorite over Kansas (approx current odds)
Kansas 3-2 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)
Villanova 3-1 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)
Kansas 3-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)
Villanova 4-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game) - 44.4%
If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 13.3%
If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 8.9%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 17.8%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool - 4.4%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 8.3%
If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool - 2.8%

After rounding to the nearest percent, I estimate my chances at 71%, Keenone's (combining both picks) at 26%, and Miplet/Terapined at 3%

In case it helps, Villanova would be much bigger than -400 over Loyola Chicago in a potential final. Closer to -600.

MidwestAP

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March 27th, 2018 at 6:26:38 AM permalink

Quote: SM777
In case it helps, Villanova would be much bigger than -400 over Loyola Chicago in a potential final. Closer to -600.

You're probably correct. I was surprised that they are only a 2/1 dog to Michigan, I would have thought it would be more.

SM777

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March 27th, 2018 at 8:03:30 AM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
You're probably correct. I was surprised that they are only a 2/1 dog to Michigan, I would have thought it would be more.

Believe it or not for an 11 seed, they've had quite the easy road. In no game before Michigan were they a bigger dog than +4.5, that's quite crazy.

I think we'll see -550 to -600 depending on the book should that matchup happen. In these huge public games like a National Championship the casual bettors will be lining up to play Loyola Chicago on the M/L. Which is likely a little short for a -10 (or whatever it comes out at) favorite in a normal game in the middle of the season.

Good luck to you. The Duke loss eliminated me, as we were neck and neck with Villanova as our champion.

FleaStiff

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March 27th, 2018 at 5:16:49 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
There should be a non-monetary You Suck award* for everyone who scores less than, say, 720 - a threshold which represents getting 1/3 of the possible points.
*Like: make us all post a gambling story from our past on a special "We Suck" thread

Okay. I'll probably kick the bucket before next March but just in case:
what websites will give me a review of basketball,
Seasons its played,
Difference between NBA and NCAA as to rules and scoring etc.
Sites that give team rankings
Sites that give 'the line' on imminent games.

All those hours practicing making brackets with my calligraphy set..... what a waste of time!!

Keeneone

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March 31st, 2018 at 8:07:00 PM permalink

Congratulations to MidwestAP for winning this pool! Well done.

Second place is still TBD.

Villanova wins the Championship game and SM777 wins 2nd.
Michigan wins the Championship game and Keeneone #2 wins 2nd.

GWAE

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March 31st, 2018 at 8:15:36 PM permalink

Damn I missed out on 2nd by 1 pick. If I have vilanova winning instead of losing to Virginia then I would have a chance for 2nd.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

FleaStiff

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March 31st, 2018 at 8:25:59 PM permalink

I missed out on CalState Fullerton.

Where do we send our money?

MidwestAP

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March 31st, 2018 at 8:45:05 PM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
Congratulations to MidwestAP for winning this pool! Well done.

Thank you!! That Villanova performance was impressive.

Keeneone

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March 31st, 2018 at 8:59:55 PM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
Thank you!! That Villanova performance was impressive.

Great players and great coaching won tonight.
I was thinking after Nova's 6th or 7th or 8th or 9th or 10th or 11th made three pointer Kansas would just give up drives into the lane, but it never really happened.

I see Villanova is -7 against Michigan. (145 for the total)

terapined

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April 1st, 2018 at 5:43:33 AM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
Congratulations to MidwestAP for winning this pool! Well done.

Second place is still TBD.

Villanova wins the Championship game and SM777 wins 2nd.
Michigan wins the Championship game and Keeneone #2 wins 2nd.

Congrats MidwestAP
How do we settle up?

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

GWAE

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April 1st, 2018 at 6:39:02 AM permalink

Quote: terapined
Congrats MidwestAP
How do we settle up?

We have to wait until after the championship and then I will split it up.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

FleaStiff

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April 1st, 2018 at 6:48:37 AM permalink

Quote: terapined
How do we settle up?

You actually gonna send money? It won't make Fullerton win. Just chalk it up to a learning experience and grant yourself a scholarship.

beachbumbabs

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April 1st, 2018 at 8:17:25 AM permalink

Congrats, MAP!

I really sucked, that I picked Nova to make Monday's game and still have no shot at the money. Lol...

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

FleaStiff

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April 3rd, 2018 at 3:06:30 AM permalink

Fertitta, owner of Stations Casinos, lost his 25 grand bet which would have paid him one million dollars had Michigan won the NCAA championship game.

It appears Villanova won it 79 to 62 which was dubbed a 'steam roller" victory which apparently means the point spread was deemed to be excessive.

As a few of the people on this thread pointed out, the score was nowhere near 15-15. It appears that is not a reasonable score for a basketball game since most wind up in the sixty points to eighty points range. I still don't know how many points are awarded for making a basket or if games are allowed to end in ties or must be played to a victory.

Congratulations to any and all whose bracket positioned them anywhere near the finish line.

Was there anyone in the nation who had a perfect bracket? No mistakes whatsoever? If so how much money would he have won?

What do I tell PayPal?

Last edited by: FleaStiff on Apr 3, 2018

SM777

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April 3rd, 2018 at 6:41:30 AM permalink

Congrats Midwest., I see I finished second!

Vegasrider

Vegasrider

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April 3rd, 2018 at 7:35:31 AM permalink

So Midwest is the official winner?

MidwestAP

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April 3rd, 2018 at 10:36:41 AM permalink

Quote: SM777
Congrats Midwest., I see I finished second!

Thanks, Go 'Nova!!

GWAE

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April 3rd, 2018 at 10:38:40 AM permalink

Congrats to MidwestAP for first place and SM777 for 2nd place. My coin flip bracket just barely edged out Fleastiff for last. I should have probably not just advanced 1-3 automatically. I wonder if I did coin flips for those if they would have been different.
Here are the final standings.

1 MidwestAPMidwestAP
2 SM777tHaKIDD53
3 Keeneone - #2Keeneone
4 gordonm888_WOVKnox Wizard
4 beachbumbabsbeachbumbabs
6 GWAEGWAE
7 mipletESPNFAN93776774
7 terapinedESPNFAN89986892
9 beachbumbabs 2beachbumbabs
10 KeeneoneKeeneone
11 Technical FowlIndyJeffrey
12 johnnyqqq1johnnyqqq
13 VegasriderVegas-Rider
14 GWAE 2GWAE
15 FleastiffESPNFAN94769515

The prize pool was $300 with 240 going to the winner and 60 to 2nd place. So to make it easy I will be sending my $40 to SM777 (40 plus his 20 gets him his 60) and everyone else will send to MidwestAP.
So the following should make contact with midwestAP to arrange payment.
$40 Keeneone
$20 gordonm888
$40 beachbumbabs
$20 miplet
$20 terapined
$20 lIndyJeffrey
$20 johnnyq
$20 Vegasrider
$20 Fleastiff
That makes $220 plus midwests $20 for $240.00

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

Keeneone

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April 3rd, 2018 at 10:46:01 AM permalink

Quote: SM777
Congrats Midwest., I see I finished second!

Congrats on the 2nd place win.

I am ready to pay via Amazon e-gift card. I just need MidwestAP to pm me the email address.

beachbumbabs

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April 3rd, 2018 at 11:09:14 AM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
Congrats on the 2nd place win.

I am ready to pay via Amazon e-gift card. I just need MidwestAP to pm me the email address.

I've paid MAP before (and he's paid me), so should be simple. MAP, I'll do paypal. Same as before?

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

beachbumbabs

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April 3rd, 2018 at 11:12:38 AM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
Fertitta, owner of Stations Casinos, lost his 25 grand bet which would have paid him one million dollars had Michigan won the NCAA championship game.

It appears Villanova won it 79 to 62 which was dubbed a 'steam roller" victory which apparently means the point spread was deemed to be excessive.

As a few of the people on this thread pointed out, the score was nowhere near 15-15. It appears that is not a reasonable score for a basketball game since most wind up in the sixty points to eighty points range. I still don't know how many points are awarded for making a basket or if games are allowed to end in ties or must be played to a victory.

Congratulations to any and all whose bracket positioned them anywhere near the finish line.

Was there anyone in the nation who had a perfect bracket? No mistakes whatsoever? If so how much money would he have won?

What do I tell PayPal?

After the first round, Friday night 3 weeks ago, the ESPN contest had 0 perfect brackets. Couple million entries at least, only took 2 days and 1 game each to bust the entire country.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

FleaStiff

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April 3rd, 2018 at 11:18:09 AM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
After the first round, Friday night 3 weeks ago, the ESPN contest had 0 perfect brackets. Couple million entries at least, only took 2 days and 1 game each to bust the entire country.

Wow. What is that the artificial intelligence experts used to say about the Wisdom of Crowds? Maybe they should change it to the Ignorance of Crowds?

MidwestAP

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April 3rd, 2018 at 12:12:25 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
I've paid MAP before (and he's paid me), so should be simple. MAP, I'll do paypal. Same as before?

Thanks BBB. We actually did Amazon e gift card before, and hope I can do that again with everybody.

I will send a PM in the next couple days to all those that GWAE listed as paying me, with my email address, and a link to the Amazon e-gift card page.

If this is not going to work for settlement, let me know and we can arrange something else.

gordonm888
Administrator

gordonm888

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April 3rd, 2018 at 2:52:11 PM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
Wow. What is that the artificial intelligence experts used to say about the Wisdom of Crowds? Maybe they should change it to the Ignorance of Crowds?

Picking the 1st round involves picking 1/2 of all the games in the tournament. if each game were a coin flip, then a perfect round would have a probability of 1/2^32. As it is, the UMBC upset of UVA in the 1st round was heralded by the media as the "all-time biggest upset" in college basketball history. So, its not surprising that no one in the ESPN contest had a perfect 1st round bracket.

I've played the ESPN contest for many eyars and this has always been true: the top 10 on the leaderboard after the 1st round are not in the Top 10 at the end of the contest. Winning the contest is all about picking the champion and the other team to make the championship game correctly.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

FleaStiff

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April 3rd, 2018 at 4:43:30 PM permalink

Quote: gordonm888
if each game were a coin flip, then

But it ain't no coin flip, its the result of stat keepers who keep track of how fast the players are out of the gate, whether they do well when it rains or not, what drugs they do what hookers they utilize the night before a game, etc. and the composite of that information is supposed to be better than a coin flip.

terapined

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April 6th, 2018 at 7:59:23 AM permalink

Just sent over 20.00 to the winner via amazon
FYI
Their are prefilled boxes with lowest amount 25.00
At 1st I though WTF
Then noticed
To the right is an empty box where you can fill in 20.00
Payment sent
Kudos to GWAE for setting this up

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

beachbumbabs

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April 6th, 2018 at 8:01:34 AM permalink

Sent 40.00. Congrats MAP!

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

GWAE

Threads: 93
Posts: 9854

Joined: Sep 20, 2013

April 6th, 2018 at 1:48:02 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
Just sent over 20.00 to the winner via amazon
FYI
Their are prefilled boxes with lowest amount 25.00
At 1st I though WTF
Then noticed
To the right is an empty box where you can fill in 20.00
Payment sent
Kudos to GWAE for setting this up

Dont kudos me yet, I haven't paid yet lol. Stupid PayPal is making me verify my account for some reason. I will hopefully get it done today.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

FleaStiff

Threads: 265
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Joined: Oct 19, 2009

April 6th, 2018 at 1:48:16 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
Just sent over 20.00 to the winner via amazon
FYI
Their are prefilled boxes with lowest amount 25.00

Yeah I just sent mine in too... Be advised. There were more boxes to check than on a summons for panhandling!

terapined

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April 6th, 2018 at 2:24:52 PM permalink

Quote: GWAE
Dont kudos me yet, I haven't paid yet lol. Stupid PayPal is making me verify my account for some reason. I will hopefully get it done today.

Don't think the winner has paypal

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

Keeneone

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April 6th, 2018 at 2:44:17 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
Don't think the winner has paypal

I believe he is paying SM777 for 2nd place.

SM777

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April 6th, 2018 at 3:45:37 PM permalink

Quote: GWAE
Dont kudos me yet, I haven't paid yet lol. Stupid PayPal is making me verify my account for some reason. I will hopefully get it done today.

Ah! You should've sent me a PM.

We could've switched to Venmo if it were easier.

MidwestAP

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April 7th, 2018 at 7:36:54 AM permalink

I want to thank and acknowledge payment from:

miplet
terapined
beachbumbabs
Fleastiff
Keeneone
IndyJeffrey
gordonm888

I have also heard from both johnnyQ and Vegasrider and both have made arrangements for payment.

Thanks to everyone for the prompt replies!

Last edited by: MidwestAP on Apr 7, 2018

GWAE

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April 7th, 2018 at 7:55:37 AM permalink

Quote: SM777
Ah! You should've sent me a PM.

We could've switched to Venmo if it were easier.

Just got the email that PayPal is confirmed. What a pain. I have only been using it for 15 years and all of a sudden they were jerks. As soon as I get home I will fire the payment off.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

SM777

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April 7th, 2018 at 8:43:22 PM permalink

Quote: GWAE
Just got the email that PayPal is confirmed. What a pain. I have only been using it for 15 years and all of a sudden they were jerks. As soon as I get home I will fire the payment off.

Sounds good!

Thank you for the contest.

FleaStiff

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Posts: 14484

Joined: Oct 19, 2009

April 11th, 2018 at 5:56:15 AM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
Be advised. There were more boxes to check than on a summons for panhandling!

How could I have forgotten? Evidence of senility?
During my twice-weekly check of my various online accounts, I saw this twenty dollar transaction on my debit card and thought something nefarious was afoot. After going all aflutter and thinking I was about to catch a cyber thief, I finally realized it was just that Amazon ecard purchase so of course no package would have arrived here recently.

Anyway, the contest was fun.
Thanks to the originator of the contest.
Congratulations to the Winners and also to those who came real close despite the whole nation's brackets being busted virtually right out of the gate.

MidwestAP

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April 15th, 2018 at 5:03:04 PM permalink

Just posting to this thread one last time, to report that everybody that was supposed to pay me has done so. Thanks again to GWAE for pulling this together and thanks for those who played for the prompt payment!

GWAE

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April 15th, 2018 at 7:27:34 PM permalink

Quote: MidwestAP
Just posting to this thread one last time, to report that everybody that was supposed to pay me has done so. Thanks again to GWAE for pulling this together and thanks for those who played for the prompt payment!

That's terrific. I even paid, yay for a completed contest.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

Keeneone

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April 15th, 2018 at 7:32:40 PM permalink

Quote: GWAE
That's terrific. I even paid, yay for a completed contest.

This was fun, thanks to all who planned and participated.

Keeneone

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Joined: Aug 16, 2014

March 8th, 2019 at 7:39:26 PM permalink

Is there any interest in doing a 2019 version of this on the forum?
The rules/fee/and site used seemed to work well last year IMO.
If there is enough interest, we may want to start a new 2019 thread for signup/discussion.
Selection Sunday is March 17th.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/march-madness-dates-tournament-schedule

Keeneone