Quote:MidwestAPIf I've figured it correctly, here is how the brackets play out.

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game)

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool

I need to correct something, both Miplet and terapined still have a chance. I've revised the scenarios above.

Quote:MidwestAPQuote:MidwestAP

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool

I need to correct something, both Miplet and terapined still have a chance. I've revised the scenarios above.

direct link

Using the following assumptions, I've assigned probabilities to each scenario and estimated probability of each:

Mich 2-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (approx current odds)

Villanova 2-1 favorite over Kansas (approx current odds)

Kansas 3-2 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)

Villanova 3-1 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)

Kansas 3-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)

Villanova 4-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game) - 44.4%

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 13.3%

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 8.9%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 17.8%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool - 4.4%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 8.3%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool - 2.8%

After rounding to the nearest percent, I estimate my chances at 71%, Keenone's (combining both picks) at 26%, and Miplet/Terapined at 3%

Quote:MidwestAPQuote:MidwestAPIf I've figured it correctly, here is how the brackets play out.

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game)

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool

I need to correct something, both Miplet and terapined still have a chance. I've revised the scenarios above.

OMG

This is great

I get to root for Sister Jeans team

Come on Loyloa

We are on a mission from god (always a small g for atheists)

*Like: make us all post a gambling story from our past on a special "We Suck" thread

But you all so enjoyed my bracket. And I do think the prize for my performance on this bracket thing should be monetary or at least it should be alcoholic.Quote:gordonm888There should be a non-monetary You Suck award* for everyone who scores less than, say, 720 - a threshold which represents getting 1/3 of the possible points.

*Like: make us all post a gambling story from our past on a special "We Suck" thread

Quote:MidwestAP-snip-

After rounding to the nearest percent, I estimate my chances at 71%, Keenone's (combining both picks) at 26%, and Miplet/Terapined at 3%

Thanks for the breakdown.

The Villanova vs Kansas matchup is just awesome. Both teams have been great all year. Really looking forward to the game.

Loyola-Chicago and Michigan both have great stories. It is pretty cool to have a #11 seed in the Final 4.

doesn't seem right to me and so it seems like Kansas is a good bet especially if you can get 5.5

sports stats geek Jeff Sagarin gives Kansas a 91.87 point rating and gives Villanova a 95.59 point rating

that's a 3.72 point difference based on what those figures are meant to represent

not that Sagarin knows all or is infallible but still Kansas looks good to me getting this many points for other reasons

Sagarin's stats also indicate that the Big 12 is a tougher conference than the Big East

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/2018/conference/

Quote:MidwestAPPretty good Miplet!!

Using the following assumptions, I've assigned probabilities to each scenario and estimated probability of each:

Mich 2-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (approx current odds)

Villanova 2-1 favorite over Kansas (approx current odds)

Kansas 3-2 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)

Villanova 3-1 favorite over Michigan (my estimated championship odds)

Kansas 3-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)

Villanova 4-1 favorite over Loyola-Chicago (my estimated championship odds)

If Michigan wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool (regardless of the outcome of the championship game) - 44.4%

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 13.3%

If Michigan wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Michigan wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 8.9%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova wins semi-final and Villanova wins championship, then MidwestAP will win the bracket pool - 17.8%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Villanova win semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 will win the bracket pool - 4.4%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Kansas wins the championship, then Keenone will win the bracket pool - 8.3%

If Loyola-Chicago wins semi-final and Kansas wins semi-final and Loyola-Chicago wins the championship, then Keenone#2 Miplet and terapined will tie for the win in the bracket pool - 2.8%

After rounding to the nearest percent, I estimate my chances at 71%, Keenone's (combining both picks) at 26%, and Miplet/Terapined at 3%

In case it helps, Villanova would be much bigger than -400 over Loyola Chicago in a potential final. Closer to -600.

Quote:SM777In case it helps, Villanova would be much bigger than -400 over Loyola Chicago in a potential final. Closer to -600.

You're probably correct. I was surprised that they are only a 2/1 dog to Michigan, I would have thought it would be more.

Quote:MidwestAPYou're probably correct. I was surprised that they are only a 2/1 dog to Michigan, I would have thought it would be more.

Believe it or not for an 11 seed, they've had quite the easy road. In no game before Michigan were they a bigger dog than +4.5, that's quite crazy.

I think we'll see -550 to -600 depending on the book should that matchup happen. In these huge public games like a National Championship the casual bettors will be lining up to play Loyola Chicago on the M/L. Which is likely a little short for a -10 (or whatever it comes out at) favorite in a normal game in the middle of the season.

Good luck to you. The Duke loss eliminated me, as we were neck and neck with Villanova as our champion.

Okay. I'll probably kick the bucket before next March but just in case:Quote:gordonm888There should be a non-monetary You Suck award* for everyone who scores less than, say, 720 - a threshold which represents getting 1/3 of the possible points.

*Like: make us all post a gambling story from our past on a special "We Suck" thread

what websites will give me a review of basketball,

Seasons its played,

Difference between NBA and NCAA as to rules and scoring etc.

Sites that give team rankings

Sites that give 'the line' on imminent games.

All those hours practicing making brackets with my calligraphy set..... what a waste of time!!

Second place is still TBD.

Villanova wins the Championship game and SM777 wins 2nd.

Michigan wins the Championship game and Keeneone #2 wins 2nd.

Where do we send our money?

Quote:KeeneoneCongratulations to MidwestAP for winning this pool! Well done.

Thank you!! That Villanova performance was impressive.

Quote:MidwestAPThank you!! That Villanova performance was impressive.

Great players and great coaching won tonight.

I was thinking after Nova's 6th or 7th or 8th or 9th or 10th or 11th made three pointer Kansas would just give up drives into the lane, but it never really happened.

I see Villanova is -7 against Michigan. (145 for the total)

Quote:KeeneoneCongratulations to MidwestAP for winning this pool! Well done.

Second place is still TBD.

Villanova wins the Championship game and SM777 wins 2nd.

Michigan wins the Championship game and Keeneone #2 wins 2nd.

Congrats MidwestAP

How do we settle up?

Quote:terapinedCongrats MidwestAP

How do we settle up?

We have to wait until after the championship and then I will split it up.

You actually gonna send money? It won't make Fullerton win. Just chalk it up to a learning experience and grant yourself a scholarship.Quote:terapinedHow do we settle up?

I really sucked, that I picked Nova to make Monday's game and still have no shot at the money. Lol...

It appears Villanova won it 79 to 62 which was dubbed a 'steam roller" victory which apparently means the point spread was deemed to be excessive.

As a few of the people on this thread pointed out, the score was nowhere near 15-15. It appears that is not a reasonable score for a basketball game since most wind up in the sixty points to eighty points range. I still don't know how many points are awarded for making a basket or if games are allowed to end in ties or must be played to a victory.

Congratulations to any and all whose bracket positioned them anywhere near the finish line.

Was there anyone in the nation who had a perfect bracket? No mistakes whatsoever? If so how much money would he have won?

What do I tell PayPal?

Quote:SM777Congrats Midwest., I see I finished second!

Thanks, Go 'Nova!!

Here are the final standings.

1 MidwestAPMidwestAP

2 SM777tHaKIDD53

3 Keeneone - #2Keeneone

4 gordonm888_WOVKnox Wizard

4 beachbumbabsbeachbumbabs

6 GWAEGWAE

7 mipletESPNFAN93776774

7 terapinedESPNFAN89986892

9 beachbumbabs 2beachbumbabs

10 KeeneoneKeeneone

11 Technical FowlIndyJeffrey

12 johnnyqqq1johnnyqqq

13 VegasriderVegas-Rider

14 GWAE 2GWAE

15 FleastiffESPNFAN94769515

The prize pool was $300 with 240 going to the winner and 60 to 2nd place. So to make it easy I will be sending my $40 to SM777 (40 plus his 20 gets him his 60) and everyone else will send to MidwestAP.

So the following should make contact with midwestAP to arrange payment.

$40 Keeneone

$20 gordonm888

$40 beachbumbabs

$20 miplet

$20 terapined

$20 lIndyJeffrey

$20 johnnyq

$20 Vegasrider

$20 Fleastiff

That makes $220 plus midwests $20 for $240.00

Quote:SM777Congrats Midwest., I see I finished second!

Congrats on the 2nd place win.

I am ready to pay via Amazon e-gift card. I just need MidwestAP to pm me the email address.

Quote:KeeneoneCongrats on the 2nd place win.

I am ready to pay via Amazon e-gift card. I just need MidwestAP to pm me the email address.

I've paid MAP before (and he's paid me), so should be simple. MAP, I'll do paypal. Same as before?

Quote:FleaStiffFertitta, owner of Stations Casinos, lost his 25 grand bet which would have paid him one million dollars had Michigan won the NCAA championship game.

It appears Villanova won it 79 to 62 which was dubbed a 'steam roller" victory which apparently means the point spread was deemed to be excessive.

As a few of the people on this thread pointed out, the score was nowhere near 15-15. It appears that is not a reasonable score for a basketball game since most wind up in the sixty points to eighty points range. I still don't know how many points are awarded for making a basket or if games are allowed to end in ties or must be played to a victory.

Congratulations to any and all whose bracket positioned them anywhere near the finish line.

Was there anyone in the nation who had a perfect bracket? No mistakes whatsoever? If so how much money would he have won?

What do I tell PayPal?

After the first round, Friday night 3 weeks ago, the ESPN contest had 0 perfect brackets. Couple million entries at least, only took 2 days and 1 game each to bust the entire country.

Wow. What is that the artificial intelligence experts used to say about the Wisdom of Crowds? Maybe they should change it to the Ignorance of Crowds?Quote:beachbumbabsAfter the first round, Friday night 3 weeks ago, the ESPN contest had 0 perfect brackets. Couple million entries at least, only took 2 days and 1 game each to bust the entire country.

Quote:beachbumbabsI've paid MAP before (and he's paid me), so should be simple. MAP, I'll do paypal. Same as before?

Thanks BBB. We actually did Amazon e gift card before, and hope I can do that again with everybody.

I will send a PM in the next couple days to all those that GWAE listed as paying me, with my email address, and a link to the Amazon e-gift card page.

If this is not going to work for settlement, let me know and we can arrange something else.

Quote:FleaStiffWow. What is that the artificial intelligence experts used to say about the Wisdom of Crowds? Maybe they should change it to the Ignorance of Crowds?

Picking the 1st round involves picking 1/2 of all the games in the tournament. if each game were a coin flip, then a perfect round would have a probability of 1/2^32. As it is, the UMBC upset of UVA in the 1st round was heralded by the media as the "all-time biggest upset" in college basketball history. So, its not surprising that no one in the ESPN contest had a perfect 1st round bracket.

I've played the ESPN contest for many eyars and this has always been true: the top 10 on the leaderboard after the 1st round are not in the Top 10 at the end of the contest. Winning the contest is all about picking the champion and the other team to make the championship game correctly.

But it ain't no coin flip, its the result of stat keepers who keep track of how fast the players are out of the gate, whether they do well when it rains or not, what drugs they do what hookers they utilize the night before a game, etc. and the composite of that information is supposed to be better than a coin flip.Quote:gordonm888if each game were a coin flip, then

FYI

Their are prefilled boxes with lowest amount 25.00

At 1st I though WTF

Then noticed

To the right is an empty box where you can fill in 20.00

Payment sent

Kudos to GWAE for setting this up

Quote:terapinedJust sent over 20.00 to the winner via amazon

FYI

Their are prefilled boxes with lowest amount 25.00

At 1st I though WTF

Then noticed

To the right is an empty box where you can fill in 20.00

Payment sent

Kudos to GWAE for setting this up

Dont kudos me yet, I haven't paid yet lol. Stupid PayPal is making me verify my account for some reason. I will hopefully get it done today.

Yeah I just sent mine in too... Be advised. There were more boxes to check than on a summons for panhandling!Quote:terapinedJust sent over 20.00 to the winner via amazon

FYI

Their are prefilled boxes with lowest amount 25.00

Quote:GWAEDont kudos me yet, I haven't paid yet lol. Stupid PayPal is making me verify my account for some reason. I will hopefully get it done today.

Don't think the winner has paypal

Quote:terapinedDon't think the winner has paypal

I believe he is paying SM777 for 2nd place.

Quote:GWAEDont kudos me yet, I haven't paid yet lol. Stupid PayPal is making me verify my account for some reason. I will hopefully get it done today.

Ah! You should've sent me a PM.

We could've switched to Venmo if it were easier.

miplet

terapined

beachbumbabs

Fleastiff

Keeneone

IndyJeffrey

gordonm888

I have also heard from both johnnyQ and Vegasrider and both have made arrangements for payment.

Thanks to everyone for the prompt replies!

Quote:SM777Ah! You should've sent me a PM.

We could've switched to Venmo if it were easier.

Just got the email that PayPal is confirmed. What a pain. I have only been using it for 15 years and all of a sudden they were jerks. As soon as I get home I will fire the payment off.

Quote:GWAEJust got the email that PayPal is confirmed. What a pain. I have only been using it for 15 years and all of a sudden they were jerks. As soon as I get home I will fire the payment off.

Sounds good!

Thank you for the contest.

How could I have forgotten? Evidence of senility?Quote:FleaStiffBe advised. There were more boxes to check than on a summons for panhandling!

During my twice-weekly check of my various online accounts, I saw this twenty dollar transaction on my debit card and thought something nefarious was afoot. After going all aflutter and thinking I was about to catch a cyber thief, I finally realized it was just that Amazon ecard purchase so of course no package would have arrived here recently.

Anyway, the contest was fun.

Thanks to the originator of the contest.

Congratulations to the Winners and also to those who came real close despite the whole nation's brackets being busted virtually right out of the gate.

Quote:MidwestAPJust posting to this thread one last time, to report that everybody that was supposed to pay me has done so. Thanks again to GWAE for pulling this together and thanks for those who played for the prompt payment!

That's terrific. I even paid, yay for a completed contest.

This was fun, thanks to all who planned and participated.Quote:GWAEThat's terrific. I even paid, yay for a completed contest.

The rules/fee/and site used seemed to work well last year IMO.

If there is enough interest, we may want to start a new 2019 thread for signup/discussion.

Selection Sunday is March 17th.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/march-madness-dates-tournament-schedule

Quote:KeeneoneIs there any interest in doing a 2019 version of this on the forum?

The rules/fee/and site used seemed to work well last year IMO.

If there is enough interest, we may want to start a new 2019 thread for signup/discussion.

Selection Sunday is March 17th.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/march-madness-dates-tournament-schedule

One last try on this...Please post here if you are interested.