Thread Rating:

AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12477
June 21st, 2015 at 4:17:12 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

Do you think unions have that much power anymore?



Unions hold a lot of sway. Still about 8-9% of the workforce plus their retired guys still often support them. And do not forget about the money they steal from their membership. Always a huge help.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 106
  • Posts: 4967
June 21st, 2015 at 4:47:20 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You mean like in 08 when she won the nomination? Oh, wait...


I've said it everywhere else, so I'll say it here..."the polls" didn't take the superdelegates, most of whom voted for Obama, into account.

As to why she's a favorite to win, in my opinion, she's not as far to the left as, say, Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, so more Republicans in "swing states" are likely to vote for her over a "far right" Republican candidate - and "moderate" Republicans tend to get swept aside in the primaries.
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 3489
June 21st, 2015 at 5:36:51 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

Do you think all minorities will back one party or another or is it just "some" minorities? You paint a lot of people with a pretty broad brush, IMO.

Maybe not "all minorities." But some of them are relied on for 60, 70, 80 and even 90 percent loyal bloc voting, as we have all witnessed in the last few national elections.
harvson3
harvson3
Joined: Jul 31, 2013
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 59
June 21st, 2015 at 6:58:51 PM permalink
Oy vey, there is much nonsense in this thread.

To begin with, the OP gave the odds that a particular party is favored to win the White House. Then the OP asked why Secretary Clinton is a heavy favorite, which is a different question. (If you'd like to know why Clinton beats Sanders, Chafee, and O'Malley, you could do worse than reading this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/05/27/hillary_clintons_grip_on_the_invisible_primary.html .)

The Democratic Party may or may not be favored because of economic and political fundamentals. Retrospective evaluations of how the economy is doing, plus voter demographics and support for the incumbent, will matter.

Here's a pessimistic take for the Dems: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/18/the-democratic-partys-uphill-battle-to-270-electoral-votes-in-2016/

Here's an optimistic take for the Dems: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/28/a-big-electoral-college-advantage-for-the-democrats-is-looming/

Both articles are from people who get paid to study presidential elections.

We'll have to wait and see how the economy does in early 2016 to see if the party currently holding the White House holds onto it.

Commenters' opinions about Hillary's likeability, racism, and jobs/handouts is just so much hot air and the stuff that comes out of the back end of the horse.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 434
  • Posts: 25333
June 21st, 2015 at 7:09:17 PM permalink
Quote: harvson3


Commenters' opinions about Hillary's likeability, racism, and jobs/handouts is just so much hot air and the stuff that comes out of the back end of the horse.



And your opinion is what, golden? Why is
it more valuable than anybody else's. Just
a different horse is all..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
harvson3
harvson3
Joined: Jul 31, 2013
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 59
June 21st, 2015 at 7:27:11 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

And your opinion is what, golden? Why is
it more valuable than anybody else's. Just
a different horse is all..


Oi, Boboso, gracias por la respuesta. I subscribe to a view that models based on economic and political fundamentals can help us predict presidential elections. Michael Lewis-Beck taught me that. There are numerous studies out there that support this view; there are competing views that poll aggregation provides better predictions, but we don't have the poll data yet. I wouldn't say that this view is golden, but it's certainly more empirically grounded than are claims that people are lazier now, or that unions will tip the outcome, or that Hillary will lose because everyone dislikes her. Have a good night.
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1314
June 22nd, 2015 at 2:37:08 AM permalink
Quote: harvson3


To begin with, the OP gave the odds that a particular party is favored to win the White House. Then the OP asked why Secretary Clinton is a heavy favorite, which is a different question.



I assumed Secretary Clinton will be the nominee for the Democratic party, therefore asked why she was such a heavy favorite. You are correct but I think my assumption is well founded.

Getting 3 for 2 on the Republican nominee seems like a very good wager and a bit off to me. That's why I asked. Certainly the odds will change the closer we get to said election.

That said, again, I should post the disclaimer the only American TV news I get in my area is FOX News Channel. I don't watch it, but I do listen to it. BBC is very boring and Aljeezar(spelling) isn't much better, so I'm left with FOX and do like American based news vs "international".

ps: Some of you Americans would be amazed at how large the "illegal immigration" problem is outside the US vs. Mexican situation. It, said Mexican problem, pales in comparison to other parts of the world.
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 3360
June 23rd, 2015 at 9:55:45 AM permalink
There is no need for elections anymore, there is only one political party. Money, follow the money.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-23/obama-faces-union-anger-ahead-corporate-coup-detat-trade-deal-fast-track-vote#comments

This is way beyond NAFTA in the harm it does to working class Americans. Third world, this way comes.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 434
  • Posts: 25333
June 28th, 2015 at 8:47:08 PM permalink
This was taken today of Hill. She looks
afraid, like she just saw herself in the
mirror. Somebody should get her
Botox as a gift.

"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 1348
June 28th, 2015 at 11:34:31 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You mean like in 08 when she won the
nomination? Oh, wait...



You mean like in 2012, when Romney won in a landslide?
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

  • Jump to: