Thread Rating:

NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1293
June 20th, 2015 at 7:49:35 PM permalink
2016 Presidential Race - Party to Win the Election (11/8/16)

Democrat Party 5/9
Republican Party 3/2
Any Other Political Party 50/1

Living abroad, I guess I don't get the entire picture of my country, but it just seems remarkable to me that Secretary Hillary Clinton is such a solid favorite to win the next presidential election. I guess what my friend says about FOX News is correct.....
surrender88s
surrender88s
Joined: Jun 23, 2013
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 291
June 20th, 2015 at 7:59:12 PM permalink
The Republican party is very conflicted, with many viable candidates that have very different views. This election is shaping up to look similar to 2012.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 9311
June 21st, 2015 at 3:31:30 AM permalink
More people recognize her name, that is all that it is. She is already losing ground to some GOP frontrunners. She will continue to do so, her trustworthy and likability numbers are horrible.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
RonC
RonC
Joined: Jan 18, 2010
  • Threads: 38
  • Posts: 4456
June 21st, 2015 at 4:08:38 AM permalink
It would be very unusual for anyone else currently entered (and, for that matter, anyone that I can think of at this moment) to be ahead in the polls or in the odds. At this point in 2007, she was also favored in the polls:

"Among Florida Democrats, 34 percent of those polled support Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for the Democratic presidential nomination. The senator from New York is far ahead of her rivals in the new survey by Quinnipiac University. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, is in second place at 16 percent."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/06/07/

...but there was a contender moving up in the field challenging her within her party:

Hillary Clinton: 3-1 (Much has changed in the past 6 weeks since I last posted. The Clintons are scrambling to deal with an effective challenge from the left by Obama. But they are old pros and it'd be a mistake to count them out. She's still the favorite, but also is her own worst enemy.)

Barack Obama: 6-1 (Running a very solid campaign so far. Stealing a good amount of traditional Democratic money away from Hillary, while clinging to the (mis)perception of being an outsider. I still think he ends up as the veep choice, but he's definitely got a shot.)

http://politicalspectrum.blogspot.com/2007/03/big-daddys-presidential-odds-vol-2.html

She is pretty much all alone in the Democrat field, unlike 2007:

"Hillary Clinton dominates among Democratic voters nationwide, with 57 percent, compared to 60 percent April 23. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 15 percent with Vice President Joseph Biden at 9 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent with 14 percent undecided."

...and, as the only currently viable candidate, also wins head to head polls against the relatively unknown Republican field:

"In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent of American voters to 42 percent for Paul and 45 percent of voters to 41 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:

46 - 37 percent over Christie;
47 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
47 - 37 percent over Bush;
46 - 38 percent over Walker;
48 - 37 percent over Cruz;
50 - 32 percent over Trump."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

Hillary Clinton has been the First lady, a Senator, and Secretary of State. Her husband was the President. There is no realistic way for any of the candidates to have much higher name recognition at this point in the campaign. Name recognition is more important that substance at this point; that comes later in the campaign.

She'll have a clear path to the nomination; I expect her to stay the favorite overall at least until the strongest candidates emerge on the other side. Once it narrows down and those folks go through the ups and downs of being rectally examined by the press and attacked by their supposed friends, we'll get to the substance of the election. We'll see what happens after that!
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
  • Threads: 145
  • Posts: 4372
June 21st, 2015 at 8:23:54 AM permalink
It's simple, America has changed and more people are looking for something for nothing. And there are enough who believe in the party of no personal responsibility, everyone is a victim and the government should take care of you. Compare this to the GOP pitching opportunity for those willing to work hard and it's an uphill climb. Add in an election map where the GOP has little room for error with huge liberal states already lost, the odds are where they should be. Not saying she will win, but it's going to take a strong candidate willing to lie about what he believes in to beat her.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 4176
June 21st, 2015 at 10:11:56 AM permalink
The reason why she is ahead is because it's very very early and she has the most name recognition. It's as simple as that.

However, next year she will continue to be ahead because the country is becoming more socially liberal by the day and the Democratic base is growing. While the Republicans refuse to adapt and still only cater to their shrinking base of the three Rs: the super rich, racists, and religious people.
Lock him up!
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 2612
June 21st, 2015 at 10:35:52 AM permalink
TFHAH, "tinfoil hatters against Hillary". Que the sirens.
Gabes22
Gabes22
Joined: Jul 19, 2011
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1281
June 21st, 2015 at 10:45:41 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

The reason why she is ahead is because it's very very early and she has the most name recognition. It's as simple as that.

However, next year she will continue to be ahead because the country is becoming more socially liberal by the day and the Democratic base is growing. While the Republicans refuse to adapt and still only cater to their shrinking base of the three Rs: the super rich, racists, and religious people.


That is complete hogwash. Republicans wouldn't own the South if being rich was a prerequisite to voting Republican. The areas of this country that have the most money like New York, LA, San Francisco, Chicago are all bastions of liberalism. I personally think the people who are economically comfortable tend to vote Republican, but numbers indicate that the super rich and super poor tend to vote liberal, the Republicans tend to own the people who are comfortable but not the kind that has generational wealth. Racism exists on both sides of the aisle, it's just applied differently. Personally, I think it is more racist to tell someone that the government needs to help you because you, as a(n) (insert race here) are incapable of helping yourself. The bigotry of low expectations is a very real thing in this country. Religious people is also another misnomer. Yes, evangelicals tend to vote Republican, but Catholics and Jews tend to vote overwhelmingly liberal. Everyone has heard the talking points of racist, rich and religious to describe Republicans and everyone has heard the term tax and spend democrat but IMO those stereotypes don't tend to have a lot of footing in reality
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 9311
June 21st, 2015 at 10:45:59 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

The reason why she is ahead is because it's very very early and she has the most name recognition. It's as simple as that.

However, next year she will continue to be ahead because the country is becoming more socially liberal by the day and the Democratic base is growing. While the Republicans refuse to adapt and still only cater to their shrinking base of the three Rs: the super rich, racists, and religious people.



Well, the GOP base is shrinking I agree. Fewer and fewer people want to work for a living.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
TomG
TomG 
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1381
June 21st, 2015 at 12:16:38 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

She is already losing ground to some GOP frontrunners.



Other than gambling markets what criteria could we use to possibly know that anyone is either gaining or losing ground?

  • Jump to: