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mason2386
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:26:13 PM permalink
As a regular player of both games and not a counter, I am wondering which game you believe has a better payoff over the long haul?
surrender88s
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:32:11 PM permalink
"regular player". If this regular player learns basic strategy and plays at a decent place, he'll have a lower house edge... although, he may end up gambling more due to the speed of the game. The question is a little vague, there are grey areas as far as calculating house edge, amount of loss returned in comps, etc.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
mason2386
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:36:53 PM permalink
Using basic strategy at BJ and Craps, regardless of comps, which game do you believe will payout greater after a long grind?
surrender88s
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:46:48 PM permalink
You'll lose the majority of the time that you play either. It all really depends, there isn't a "basic strategy" for craps. Question is way too vague. You can have fun playing either.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
mason2386
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:50:17 PM permalink
In what way vague? How would you more narrow down the question?
Dieter
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:56:04 PM permalink
Quote: mason2386

In what way vague? How would you more narrow down the question?



We have a fair idea of the house edge involved and game pace when flat-betting table minimum and playing basic strategy at blackjack.

How are you betting at craps?
May the cards fall in your favor.
surrender88s
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April 13th, 2015 at 7:57:57 PM permalink
It's like saying, which car will get better mileage, the Ford, or the Mazda?

First off, I'm really trying to figure out what you're really asking about. Like, are you planning to only play one game, and you need help picking one? Are you having an argument with a friend? Clarify your question, which might help people answer.

Blackjack and Craps are two games that can be played very differently. You can vary your bets. In craps, you can choose several different bets. Which bets you choose and how much you bet on each will change your variance and expected value. And therefore, it will change your expectation of how much you'll win or lose in a session. Also, your ability to make correct plays in blackjack(basic strategy) could change the house edge up to 10%(if you're horrible to begin with).

You'd have to communicate how you intend to play either game, with more specificity, or less vagueness.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
mcallister3200
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April 13th, 2015 at 8:06:52 PM permalink
The answer will be slightly different depending on the rules of each game in the casino you play. If craps allow 10x or more odds and you strictly play pass or don't pass and dc or come bets with max odds, you'll be slightly better off than playing a h17 6 deck games. If you're going to place other bets on a craps table or the casino only allows double odds or 3-5x, probably better off playing basic in blackjack so long as bj pays 3:2. Craps with high odds multiples will have much larger swings than flat betting blackjack, if you're going to play craps at 10x or more odds make sure you have the stomach and wallet for it.
RS
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April 13th, 2015 at 8:26:29 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

The answer will be slightly different depending on the rules of each game in the casino you play. If craps allow 10x or more odds and you strictly play pass or don't pass and dc or come bets with max odds, you'll be slightly better off than playing a h17 6 deck games. If you're going to place other bets on a craps table or the casino only allows double odds or 3-5x, probably better off playing basic in blackjack so long as bj pays 3:2. Craps with high odds multiples will have much larger swings than flat betting blackjack, if you're going to play craps at 10x or more odds make sure you have the stomach and wallet for it.



Partially agree.

If they have a $5 min with 10x odds, and you like to have about $50 in action at a time, then of course, that's much better than betting $50 at a blackjack table. But chances are, if they have $5 craps then they'll have $5 or $10 BJ. Small chance they have a $5 dice game but lowest min on BJ be $50.


Anyway, it really doesn't matter. Pick and play whichever game you like more. Or if you prefer, play a bit of each.
FleaStiff
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April 13th, 2015 at 11:41:17 PM permalink
Quote: mason2386

As a regular player of both games and not a counter, I am wondering which game you believe has a better payoff over the long haul?

The primary question is which player is having more fun, because that is ALWAYS the primary question. Its your money and you are the one selecting the House Edge, Odds, Playing Strategy, etc.

If you play craps by always betting Big Red you are at 16point something disadvantage any probably a fool to be doing it, but if that is how you enjoy throwing your money away, so be it.

If you play blackjack and can't add you probably won't make much money but dealers will call your hand if you ask them to. Its up to your style of play and enjoyment.

An average intelligent player equally familiar with the intricacies and strategies of each game is going to comped a smidgen more at BlackJack than at Craps. That right there tells you the casino values your play more at blackjack, but not by all that much.

So when all the free drinks are factored in, it comes down to the original question. Which one do you enjoy more because the math difference between the two games ain't worth the shoe leather used up walking from one to the other.
100xOdds
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April 14th, 2015 at 6:19:10 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

The primary question is which player is having more fun, because that is ALWAYS the primary question. Its your money and you are the one selecting the House Edge, Odds, Playing Strategy, etc.

If you play craps by always betting Big Red you are at 16point something disadvantage any probably a fool to be doing it, but if that is how you enjoy throwing your money away, so be it.

If you play blackjack and can't add you probably won't make much money but dealers will call your hand if you ask them to. Its up to your style of play and enjoyment.

An average intelligent player equally familiar with the intricacies and strategies of each game is going to comped a smidgen more at BlackJack than at Craps. That right there tells you the casino values your play more at blackjack, but not by all that much.

So when all the free drinks are factored in, it comes down to the original question. Which one do you enjoy more because the math difference between the two games ain't worth the shoe leather used up walking from one to the other.



I agree.
both are -EV games (if you don't count).

Since both are ~99.6% returns, play the one that's most fun to you since you're paying for the entertainment in the long run.

I'm a craps player because I find blackjack so mechanical and boring. if dealer's face up card is X, you either hit or stay.
BJ also requires a bigger bankroll imo.

craps = 10x what you put on the table.
bj = 20x buy-in

so if my bankroll is $1000, I have $100 in play in Craps and $50 in BJ.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Dicenor33
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April 14th, 2015 at 7:01:03 AM permalink
Why not baccarat? The baccarat fever has not cought up with the American audience as it did with Asians. I guess it's because the players have not figured out of how to play the game. Some baccarat players bet thousands, you don't see things like at either craps or blackjack. Eventually, you will get better at baccarat, which can not be said about to other games.
Romes
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April 14th, 2015 at 7:19:55 AM permalink
Lots of others have already thrown their opinions in the mix, but I guess I'll do the same if it's opinions you're looking for. I will attempt to remove my card counting bias and approach the situation if I was a straight Pass/Don't Pass + Come/Don't Come craps player, and a basic strategy blackjack player... For the record I really enjoy playing both games.

In my opinion, you'll be betting more in craps. When I play, I play the don't pass w/ don't come, but I play numerous don't comes. Even at a $10 table, with $30-$40 odds (not even 10x) if I get 3-4 points that's still like $150-$200 in action, from one shooter! Flat betting $10 in blackjack is much less volatile, in my opinion. I can't tell you how many times I've seen people buy in for $100 and flat bet $10 and play for hours upon hours upon hours. Try buying in for $100 and playing Pass/Come for numerous points in craps. If the table's hot you win big, otherwise you're broke... again backing my opinion that craps is much more volatile.

So then what? ...it depends if you're looking for that volatility or not. I usually am not, but to a purely recreational gambler, perhaps you are. Thus, in my opinion blackjack is the better game (even though I love playing both).

Also, to get a bit technical now... The house edge is better in blackjack. Your "odds" bets in craps are pure 50/50, so if you check the EV of a pass line bet with 10x odds it would look like this: EV = ($10*-1.41%) + ($100*0.00%)... which is the same as your original pass line bet. So you're playing a -1.41% house edge in craps, and an "on average" -.5% house edge in blackjack. Again, blackjack is technically the better game.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Tanko
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April 14th, 2015 at 7:40:23 AM permalink
Blackjack.

The House Edge in a six-deck game with favorable rules is about .35%

To approach this HE in Craps, you have to buy your way to it with 4X odds and you will have to withstand great volatility.

In Blackjack, the probability of being dealt a favorable hand is 41.6%.

Using Basic Strategy alone, Split and Double situations are always opportunities to make bets favorable to the player.

You will never see anything like that in Craps.

In Craps, no hand from the initial bet to it's resolution is ever favorable to the player.
Romes
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April 14th, 2015 at 8:12:02 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

...In Craps, no hand from the initial bet to it's resolution is ever favorable to the player.


Don't Pass or Don't Come... after a point is established your bet becomes the favorite. =)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Gabes22
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April 14th, 2015 at 8:14:03 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Lots of others have already thrown their opinions in the mix, but I guess I'll do the same if it's opinions you're looking for. I will attempt to remove my card counting bias and approach the situation if I was a straight Pass/Don't Pass + Come/Don't Come craps player, and a basic strategy blackjack player... For the record I really enjoy playing both games.

In my opinion, you'll be betting more in craps. When I play, I play the don't pass w/ don't come, but I play numerous don't comes. Even at a $10 table, with $30-$40 odds (not even 10x) if I get 3-4 points that's still like $150-$200 in action, from one shooter! Flat betting $10 in blackjack is much less volatile, in my opinion. I can't tell you how many times I've seen people buy in for $100 and flat bet $10 and play for hours upon hours upon hours. Try buying in for $100 and playing Pass/Come for numerous points in craps. If the table's hot you win big, otherwise you're broke... again backing my opinion that craps is much more volatile.

So then what? ...it depends if you're looking for that volatility or not. I usually am not, but to a purely recreational gambler, perhaps you are. Thus, in my opinion blackjack is the better game (even though I love playing both).

Also, to get a bit technical now... The house edge is better in blackjack. Your "odds" bets in craps are pure 50/50, so if you check the EV of a pass line bet with 10x odds it would look like this: EV = ($10*-1.41%) + ($100*0.00%)... which is the same as your original pass line bet. So you're playing a -1.41% house edge in craps, and an "on average" -.5% house edge in blackjack. Again, blackjack is technically the better game.



This sums up my feeling on craps vs blackjack. Craps is far too volatile for my liking. I would play craps, but for lower limits than I am comfortable playing blackjack at.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
surrender88s
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April 14th, 2015 at 8:22:51 AM permalink
really, the 0% HE free odds bet shouldn't even be considered, as it's long run effect is 0% change to EV, and an increase in variance. You aren't really lowering your house edge on your initial pass/come bet by taking odds, you are just betting more at a lower house edge. That initial bet still had a 1%+ House edge. The advice of "you should always take odds" is basically saying that you should always play a fair coin-flip game that pays 1:1.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
charliepatrick
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April 14th, 2015 at 10:14:00 AM permalink
One way to guess its meaning is say I was going into a casino for an evening and could choose between two $5 tables, which of the two games (i.e. determined by time rather than bets resolved) is best in the long term for giving you (i) a chance to win but (ii) on average costs the least (for an evening).

Ref: https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/136/

Let's say (a) the version of Blackjack has a House Edge of .5% and (b) based on you and four other friends playing there will be 70 hands in an hour - for total cost of 70 * .5% * $5 bet = $1.75/hr.

Let's say (a) you bet Pass (yes Don't Pass is better) with a House Edge of 1.4% and (b) based on you and four other friends there are 144 rolls, so this means 144/3.376 Pass bets resolved per hour = 38 bets resolved. Total cost is 38 * 1.4% * $5 = $2.66/hr.


This seems to imply playing Blackjack is the better option - but it's a close call and you're probably better playing the one which your friends prefer or has a more lively looking table.
Tanko
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April 14th, 2015 at 10:26:37 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Don't Pass or Don't Come... after a point is established your bet becomes the favorite. =)



Note that I said 'from the initial bet'.

When placing a Don't Come or Don't Pass bet, you are subject to the 7 and the 11.

That bet will get picked off eight times in thirty-six tries before it gets behind a number for a favorable position.

When taken from the initial bet to it's resolution, the Don't hand as a whole is not favorable to the player.
Romes
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April 14th, 2015 at 10:37:48 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Note that I said 'from the initial bet'.

When placing a Don't Come or Don't Pass bet, you are subject to the 7 and the 11.

That bet will get picked off eight times in thirty-six tries before it gets behind a number for a favorable position.

When taken from the initial bet to it's resolution, the Don't hand as a whole is not favorable to the player.


When placing your initial wager in blackjack, before you get your 2 cards, you are a dog to the house edge (when you're not counting). You only find you're in a favorable position after establishing your hand and the dealers up card... much like establishing a point.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
SanchoPanza
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April 14th, 2015 at 10:51:34 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

One way to guess its meaning is say I was going into a casino for an evening and could choose between two $5 tables, which of the two games (i.e. determined by time rather than bets resolved) is best in the long term for giving you (i) a chance to win but (ii) on average costs the least (for an evening).

Let's say (a) the version of Blackjack has a House Edge of .5% and (b) based on you and four other friends playing there will be 70 hands in an hour - for total cost of 70 * .5% * $5 bet = $1.75/hr.

Let's say (a) you bet Pass (yes Don't Pass is better) with a House Edge of 1.4% and (b) based on you and four other friends there are 144 rolls, so this means 144/3.376 Pass bets resolved per hour = 38 bets resolved. Total cost is 38 * 1.4% * $5 = $2.66/hr.

This seems to imply playing Blackjack is the better option - but it's a close call and you're probably better playing the one which your friends prefer or has a more lively looking table.

To compare, the 70 hands an hour at blackjack should be multiplied by 4, just as was done with the craps calculation.
surrender88s
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April 14th, 2015 at 11:00:01 AM permalink
It looks good to me. In craps, you bet on others' rolls, in blackjack, you only bet on your hands.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
mrclean
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April 14th, 2015 at 11:29:30 AM permalink
An option might be Pai Gow Poker. Not as much volatility (I think) as craps, low house edge, slower play than BJ so your money lasts longer, and if you like to chat and have a bit of fun you can often find that at the table.
odiousgambit
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April 14th, 2015 at 12:04:02 PM permalink
I guess I have to apologize for always saying this, but:

For flat-betting, the variance is way too low in BJ. You see nothing but long faces at the BJ table for a reason.

For the most part [what's usually offered] the HE is about the same, or can be assuming smart betting - BS in BJ and no sucker betting in Craps. To me this just says it is not just about the HE.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ahiromu
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April 14th, 2015 at 12:37:02 PM permalink
I play both games along with PGP. Before December '14, I only really played BJ and craps. In craps, I play PL+odds & place 6/8 & buy 4/10 exclusively. The per-roll loss of these bets is between .4-.5%, which is about on-par with blackjack. You'll get 100 rolls per hour on a craps table and 60 hands per hour in blackjack on average for both (craps is a faster game). I'm going to argue that the odds bet in craps makes up for the difference in speed. I know that that is a stretch, but what I'm getting at is that in the end it really does not matter. These games, if played properly and within reason, are so close that all you have to worry about is variance at your comfortable betting level. People, including me, bitch and moan about the variance of craps, but not enough is said about the extreme variance of blackjack if you press your bets or count.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Romes
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April 14th, 2015 at 12:55:19 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I guess I have to apologize for always saying this, but:

For flat-betting, the variance is way too low in BJ. You see nothing but long faces at the BJ table for a reason.

For the most part [what's usually offered] the HE is about the same, or can be assuming smart betting - BS in BJ and no sucker betting in Craps. To me this just says it is not just about the HE.


At your average craps table, no sucker bets (so pass line w/ odds lets say)... HE = 1.41%
At your average BJ table, basic strategy... HE = .4%

Of course either situation could change pending rules, betting, etc, we're just taking the average non sucker betting plays here. Still, that yields more than 3x the advantage in craps as it does in BJ, not to mention the much discussed higher variance of craps.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
surrender88s
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April 14th, 2015 at 1:00:01 PM permalink
I think it should be said that these are two of the best games to play in a casino. Better than slots, most video poker, most table games.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
ahiromu
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April 14th, 2015 at 1:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Quote: odiousgambit

I guess I have to apologize for always saying this, but:

For flat-betting, the variance is way too low in BJ. You see nothing but long faces at the BJ table for a reason.

For the most part [what's usually offered] the HE is about the same, or can be assuming smart betting - BS in BJ and no sucker betting in Craps. To me this just says it is not just about the HE.


At your average craps table, no sucker bets (so pass line w/ odds lets say)... HE = 1.41%
At your average BJ table, basic strategy... HE = .4%

Of course either situation could change pending rules, betting, etc, we're just taking the average non sucker betting plays here. Still, that yields more than 3x the advantage in craps as it does in BJ, not to mention the much discussed higher variance of craps.



You're comparing per resolution, in which case craps is a much slower game. I mentioned it in my post, but I think 60 hands per hour in blackjack is fair as is 100 rolls per hour in blackjack. If you're wanting to play one on one with the dealer, your mileage can vary significantly, so let's ignore that for now. Additionally, depending on the player, 10-50% of your action is on a bet with 0% edge in craps. If you can find S17 strip rules at .25-.3 then it's blackjack (slightly), but for a random H17 game, it's much more ambiguous.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Hubomba
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April 14th, 2015 at 5:00:07 PM permalink
I think Blackjack would have you come out ahead in the end since I think blackjack would be more favorable for comps than Craps ( casinos don't take into account the odds bets if I recall correctly ).
mason2386
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April 14th, 2015 at 8:06:24 PM permalink
Thank you to all that have replied. The responses have made for a great read and made me look a both games in a new perspective and re-evaluate the purpose of why I play.
AxelWolf
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April 14th, 2015 at 8:31:48 PM permalink
Quote: Dicenor33

Why not baccarat? The baccarat fever has not cought up with the American audience as it did with Asians. I guess it's because the players have not figured out of how to play the game. Some baccarat players bet thousands, you don't see things like at either craps or blackjack. Eventually, you will get better at baccarat, which can not be said about to other games.



"Eventually, you will get better at baccarat, which can not be said about to other games"


This is the opposite of Blackjack.

Explain how someone gets better a guessing?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
dwm
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April 14th, 2015 at 9:00:17 PM permalink
Here is my simple answer: Double deck BJ is much better on your wallet , but craps is more fun(on a decent table). Craps is getting more difficult to win.
If only BJ 6 and 8 shoe games available, toss up.
SanchoPanza
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April 14th, 2015 at 9:18:53 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

Craps is getting more difficult to win.

Why?
Mission146
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April 14th, 2015 at 9:23:09 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



Explain how someone gets better a guessing?



They eventually stop guessing Player or Tie and only, "Guess," Banker.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Tanko
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April 15th, 2015 at 3:58:05 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

When placing your initial wager in blackjack, before you get your 2 cards, you are a dog to the house edge (when you're not counting). You only find you're in a favorable position after establishing your hand and the dealers up card... much like establishing a point.



Counting has nothing to do with it.

The advantage goes to the player whenever a disproportionate number of tens and aces remain to be dealt from the shoe.

Though you will still lose more than 50% of the time, the likelihood for a strong hand actually exists before the deal when the shoe is rich.

It is not like establishing a point shooting from the Don'ts, becasue a player statistical advantage cannot exist before the initial roll for the hand.
odiousgambit
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April 15th, 2015 at 4:27:01 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

At your average craps table, no sucker bets (so pass line w/ odds lets say)... HE = 1.41%
At your average BJ table, basic strategy... HE = .4%



The HE of a Pass line bet 'with odds' is not 1.41%. Even at 1X odds, the HE goes below 1%. At the typical 3x4x5x, it goes down to 0.374%

Now it is true that if you find a $5 BJ table and a $5 Craps table, and want to bet $5 a hand, the games are going to have a different HE. Both will suck for variance, but the Craps table will have the higher HE. What this boils down to is whether the player is going to have a high enough average bet; then, at Craps, he can have both the excellent variance and the low HE. At BJ, just flat betting, at any level bet he is probably just going to sit there and lose consistently.

In order to get a handle on this, we can look at EV/SD. Stay tuned and I'll try to do that.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
cyrus
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April 15th, 2015 at 5:39:02 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I guess I have to apologize for always saying this, but:

For flat-betting, the variance is way too low in BJ. You see nothing but long faces at the BJ table for a reason.



I think that's a matter of personal preference. For me, the amount of variance at BJ is plenty enough excitement. Playing $10-15 a hand, I have lost $100 in one hour, or won $200 in two hours. Granted in the looooong run you'll be negative, but there is plenty of opportunity for short-run exciting wins. I don't keep records of lifetime net win loss, so even if I'm net down for a few years, i still have positive memories of those winning sessions.
Joeman
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April 15th, 2015 at 5:43:50 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

"Eventually, you will get better at baccarat, which can not be said about to other games"

This is the opposite of Blackjack.

Explain how someone gets better a guessing?


Well, you see, at some point, you will enlist the services of a little voodoo monkey statue... ;)
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Dieter
Administrator
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:26:34 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

You'll get 100 rolls per hour on a craps table and 60 hands per hour in blackjack on average for both (craps is a faster game).



Uhh, what? Blackjack is only slow at a full table of casual players.

A pro, heads up, can play at least 3x that speed, 4x+ if the dealer is cooperative.

Whether a faster game is better or worse for comps depends on the rating system in use and if the suit is paying attention.
May the cards fall in your favor.
mustangsally
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:08:06 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The HE of a Pass line bet 'with odds' is not 1.41%.

you mean the combined HE where one combines 2 or more bets
Quote: odiousgambit

Even at 1X odds, the HE goes below 1%.

you mean the combined HE goes below 1%

-7/495 becomes
-7/ (495 * average bet)

do you get -7/825

what is the average unit bet always taking 1x odds?

and that is over an average bet of ? again

those that state low combined HE better state the average bet
and then show the expected value, as the expected value does not change
please

remember there are only winners and losers
one can not choose the one they are and will be forever
Quote: odiousgambit

At the typical 3x4x5x, it goes down to 0.374%

exactly what does it go down to?
please
-7 / 495 * ?

do you get -7/1870?

i get ? = 3 7/9

and what is the ev for such a low HE?
please tell

Quote: odiousgambit

What this boils down to is whether the player is going to have a high enough average bet; then, at Craps, he can have both the excellent variance and the low HE.
At BJ, just flat betting, at any level bet he is probably just going to sit there and lose consistently.

super opinion
wow!
(factor of 10)

do show a fair comparison

not like a
$5 pass line NO odds
vs
$5 pass line and $500 odds always
players expected loss are the same
thank you!
do you wants any cash up front
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Romes
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:09:21 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Counting has nothing to do with it.

The advantage goes to the player whenever a disproportionate number of tens and aces remain to be dealt from the shoe.


And to the house when there are less aces/tens remaining. This is a 50/50 on which way the shoe will go where it's just as likely to favor the player as it is the house. The only difference when counting is the ability to identify these situations. To a player not counting they are just as likely to be in a bad count as they are in a good one, so they gain ZERO advantage just for playing blackjack.

Quote: Tanko

Though you will still lose more than 50% of the time, the likelihood for a strong hand actually exists before the deal when the shoe is rich.


You're expected to lose 48% of the time, push 9% of the time, and win 43% of the time, and that's from the Wizard. The likely hood for a strong hand is equal to that of a weak hand before the deal. Taking counting out you again have no idea which situation you're in, and they're both just as likely. Again, you gain no advantage from just playing blackjack as you find yourself in poor situations just as often as good situations.

Quote: Tanko

It is not like establishing a point shooting from the Don'ts, becasue a player statistical advantage cannot exist before the initial roll for the hand.


Given we've already established the shoe is equally as likely to be "good" or "bad" for the player, and that a non counting player has no way to identify this, all things are equal. They are just as likely to be in a good shoe as a bad. This means when they place their $10 bet, the original house edge of let's say -.5% they had on the first hand, is the same house edge on the last hand. -.5% all the way through the shoe...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Nostron
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:16:03 AM permalink
These are the two games I play.

Craps is way more volatile and I tend to bet more aggressively and more money which leads to some really big wins but some big losses as well.

BJ is much more likely to be a grind it our affair.

I suspect this would be most peoples experience that play both?
Romes
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:16:35 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The HE of a Pass line bet 'with odds' is not 1.41%. Even at 1X odds, the HE goes below 1%. At the typical 3x4x5x, it goes down to 0.374%...


I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with this... We can calculate the EV quite easily... It's a summation of all of your bets and their respective edges.

Blackjack (assuming .5% HE and $10 bet): EV = bet * house edge = ($10 * -.005) = -.05.

Craps (assuming $10 bet and $100 odds): EV = SUM(bet * house edge) = ($10 * -.0141) + ($100 * 0.00%) = -.141 + 0 = -.141

No matter how much odds you put down, you placed your original $10 wager on the pass line with a house edge of 1.41%. Your odds are even money bets (as everyone knows and agrees). Placing a billion dollar even money wager doesn't change the odds of your original bet.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
odiousgambit
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April 15th, 2015 at 8:42:40 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with this...Placing a billion dollar even money wager doesn't change the odds of your original bet.



I'm glad you're being respectful LOL - well, hell, that's never funny on the internet, what am I laughing about!?

We do disagree, and we have always disagreed respectfully.

The way I like to say it when pondering your point is, with free odds in Craps 'you can change the HE but not the EV'.

I do not agree that the HE stays the same. You could argue that they are separate bets and should not be thought of as a single bet, which technically is correct but, to me, not reality when the odds bet is made without fail.

Quote: cyrus

I think that's a matter of personal preference. For me, the amount of variance at BJ is plenty enough excitement. Playing $10-15 a hand, I have lost $100 in one hour, or won $200 in two hours. Granted in the looooong run you'll be negative, but there is plenty of opportunity for short-run exciting wins. I don't keep records of lifetime net win loss, so even if I'm net down for a few years, i still have positive memories of those winning sessions.



I see your point, and of course people win often enough, and it might be enough for you. But the SD of BJ is known [just over 1], so it is not shooting from the hip to say the variance is low.

Sally, you are talking in riddles again ... let me read that again and I might comment.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
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April 15th, 2015 at 9:50:28 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I'm glad you're being respectful LOL - well, hell, that's never funny on the internet, what am I laughing about!?

We do disagree, and we have always disagreed respectfully.

The way I like to say it when pondering your point is, with free odds in Craps 'you can change the HE but not the EV'.

I do not agree that the HE stays the same. You could argue that they are separate bets and should not be thought of as a single bet, which technically is correct but, to me, not reality when the odds bet is made without fail. ...


I'm glad we can discuss in good fun. It's never my intent to upset anyone, and I do have a lot of respect for your craps knowledge I've seen you express through your posts. Where you lose me though is where you say "you can change the HE but not the EV." These two are 100% correlated, thus one can't change without the other changing.

Example (game doesn't even matter):
HE = -.5%... you bet $10.. your EV = HE*bet = -.005*10 = -.05

If we change the HE, it WILL change the EV... HE = -1.0%, you bet $10 (again this could be on any game)... your EV = HE*bet = -.010*10 = -.10

Your EV is the summation of your different house edges applied to the different amounts bet. So say you make 3 bets at 1 time (again on any game in the casino):
Bet 1 = -.5% * $10
Bet 2 = -1.0% * $10
Bet 3 = 0% * $10

...Your EV = (Bet 1 EV) + (Bet 2 EV) + (Bet 3 EV) = (-.005*10) + (-.010*10) + (0*10) = -.05 + -.10 + 0 = -.15

You can see how this 3rd bet can be related to a craps odds wager that has 0% HE. Again, doesn't matter if it's a billion dollars or 1 dollar, since it has 0% HE, it has 0% EV, in the long run.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Tanko
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April 15th, 2015 at 10:00:37 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

You're expected to lose 48% of the time, push 9% of the time, and win 43% of the time, and that's from the Wizard. The likely hood for a strong hand is equal to that of a weak hand before the deal. Taking counting out you again have no idea which situation you're in, and they're both just as likely. Again, you gain no advantage from just playing blackjack as you find yourself in poor situations just as often as good situations.



Forget counting.

This is not about whether the player knows his situation.

And forget about poor situations.

I simply stated, there are situations when the shoe is in condition to favor the player on the next hand.

Whether one is counting or not, when a shoe reaches a rich condition, the player had the edge for the next hand, before he even places his bet, whether he knows it or not.

This is impossible in craps where every initial hand begins at a disadvantage.

Although the dealer has the same chance of getting a strong hand as the player when the shoe is rich, the player still has the edge.

As I said before, the player will lose more than 50% of these hands, but he still has the advantage

First, there is the increased likelihood of a blackjack.

If the dealer gets one, the player loses one unit.

If the player gets one, he wins 1.5 units.

A disproportionate advantage to the player in an equal environment.

Stand conditions become much stronger against low dealer up cards, because the dealer has to hit with a shoe rich in tens and aces.

Doubles and splits become more favorable when the shoe is rich.
odiousgambit
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April 15th, 2015 at 1:00:38 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I'm glad we can discuss in good fun. It's never my intent to upset anyone, and I do have a lot of respect for your craps knowledge I've seen you express through your posts. Where you lose me though is where you say "you can change the HE but not the EV." These two are 100% correlated, thus one can't change without the other changing.



Hmmm, well you do seem to be stuck on this and it surprises me a bit that you are unaware that this is well covered elsewhere.* It does require combining bets, perhaps you call foul on that.

The way you can change the HE, but not the EV, is by a bet combination of a negative expectation bet with a free odds bet.

If you combine two negative expectation bets, it can be said that you can change the HE but can only increase the EV [the absolute value ]; a fact which escapes many a hedging player.

*for Craps, see https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#toc-TheOdds [combined house edge area]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
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April 15th, 2015 at 1:11:40 PM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Forget counting.

This is not about whether the player knows his situation.

And forget about poor situations.

I simply stated, there are situations when the shoe is in condition to favor the player on the next hand.

Whether one is counting or not, when a shoe reaches a rich condition, the player had the edge for the next hand, before he even places his bet, whether he knows it or not.

This is impossible in craps where every initial hand begins at a disadvantage.


My point is IT'S THE SAME. Yes the player has random times when not counting they're the advantage... and this doesn't happen in craps.

BUT

The player also has the SAME number of random times when not counting they're at an even further disadvantage... and this doesn't happen in craps.

So your argument that blackjack could be better because you can get an 'advantage' sometimes (without counting) is erroneous, because the same non-counting players also play with disadvantages they also don't know about.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Romes
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April 15th, 2015 at 1:22:12 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Hmmm, well you do seem to be stuck on this and it surprises me a bit that you are unaware that this is well covered elsewhere.* It does require combining bets, perhaps you call foul on that.

The way you can change the HE, but not the EV, is by a bet combination of a negative expectation bet with a free odds bet.

If you combine two negative expectation bets, it can be said that you can change the HE but can only increase the EV [the absolute value ]; a fact which escapes many a hedging player.

*for Craps, see https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#toc-TheOdds [combined house edge area]



The bet made, bet resolved stays at 1.41% no matter what, even if you lay odds. The "Roll" that is .42% I believe a number being taken out of context when saying "the house edge is lowered." When the bet is made, and when it's collected, by either side, it's 1.41%, and the odds is 0.00%. The Roll % I don't believe is indicative of the House Edge placed on a bet.

With the confusion surrounding this, it would probably be best to get it from the horses mouth (so to say) and hope that Mike would chime in possibly explaining the page/numbers a bit more.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mason2386
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:16:20 PM permalink
In starting this thread, I asked which game has a better chance for you the player, it has morphed into a discussion amongst players into this discussion that has answered the question of what will give ME the best experience at the casino. It has made look back at recent trips to vegas and think about when I had the most fun gambling.

When playing BJ I have had some incredible conversations with complete strangers and met people I will never forget, when playing craps, I have had the most exciting moments to be shared by all at the table. My take away from this thread is that all questions in my mind about these two games is, which experience do ou want to have?

Thank you surrender88s for asking the right questions about my vagueness for me to understand what I am asking......
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