halcyon1234
halcyon1234
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April 1st, 2015 at 6:38:47 PM permalink
There are a bunch of online contests (such as the Tim Hortons "roll up" contest, or the McDonalds Monopoly ones) that work thusly:

1) Each day, there are X number of prizes
2) Those prizes are seeded throughout the day. By seeded, it means at the start of the day, the computer picks a bunch of random times.
3) The player usually plays by clicking a button (roll the dice, turn over the cup, whateve)
4) Prizes are awarded to the first entry received on or after a seeded time.
5) The game resets at midnight each day.

Given that there is an equal probability of any time of the day picked, what is the best time of day to play? My un-math-like gut thinks noon exactly-- for some reason it seems like it's the highest cross-section of "the computer may have picked this time", and/or "the computer may have picked an earlier time and no one has claimed that seed yet".

This is also assuming that there is a steady stream of players through the whole 24 hour period. I'm sure it changes the odds a bit if you're the only one playing at 3:37am.
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 1st, 2015 at 7:03:58 PM permalink
Any strategy of click at exactly x time would be equally good, not considering the behavior of your competition.

This was how the Station Casinos random jackpots used to work. It was a practical question to ask at what point was it worth suffering the house edge because the "must hit by" point was getting close.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
surrender88s
surrender88s
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April 1st, 2015 at 9:54:45 PM permalink
I think that it's similar for retail and restaurant surveys that you see on receipts that offer chances to win instantly. I know that if i designed these types of things, i would look at what historic traffic looked like by 30 minute period, and then distribute the prizes based on traffic, in order to get closest to the idea that it's fair, and everyone has an equal chance of winning.

If there is a way to play these games/lotteries with a higher EV, the optimal increase is likely very small.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 1st, 2015 at 10:14:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Any strategy of click at exactly x time would be equally good, not considering the behavior of your competition.

This was how the Station Casinos random jackpots used to work. It was a practical question to ask at what point was it worth suffering the house edge because the "must hit by" point was getting close.

Play +EV VP and suffer no loss, however your chances are slim to none, but the enjoyment of playing a +EV game and dreaming of the possibility of hitting 95K has extra value.
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