kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 15th, 2014 at 10:04:30 AM permalink
I woke at 6:11. After a quick shower, I head for the back yard to skim the pool and take my morning swim. This is my favorite time of day as I have the day all to myself. My partner, is awake, but he has a morning ritual, involving medications and wait periods in between and it takes him a couple hours before he is ready to begin his day. Our other 2 housemates, the 'professional' poker player and my brother, who moved in earlier this summer after graduating college are nite owls and late sleepers.

8am: With my partner and 'personal driver' at the wheel, we are on the Summerlin parkway heading for Las Vegas. We swing around the downtown area and head North on Las Vegas Blvd, crossing into north Las Vegas for our first stop at Jerry's Nugget. I love Jerry's Nugget. It is probably my favorite stop, now that we are all but banned from Club Fortune in Henderson. First things first, we hit the famous Jerry's nugget coffee shop (I don't know how famous it it...lol) for breakfast. My partner and I each have $10 weekly food credit from Jerry's, so we use one, while paying for the remaining $6 balance with comps.

We then hit the players club kiosk, printing out our weekly cash, mine $15, his $10, my $15 table game free bet and $15 match play voucher and his $10 free bet and match play, along with his addition $5 table game match play for being a senior. That's $25 cash, $25 free bets and $30 match play. That's $25 cash and $26.71 in EV, less a few cents negative EV, for the half dozen rounds played at the continuous shuffle machine blackjack game, which is the only blackjack game open. We'll call the expected value take from Jerry's $51. There is some video poker play required to generate this EV, which we usually hit one time during the month to keep these offers coming, but we did that last week. As we exit, I like to stop and watch the 'nickel feeders', playing the vintage old coin dropper machines, their silver colored arthritic fingers working a mile a minute. Lol. Unfortunately, poor timing means we missed out on purchasing some Jerry's Nugget's delicious baked goods as the bakery doesn't open until 11.

We then backtrack downtown, and I am dropped off across the street from El Cortez, while my partner heads to find a parking spot somewhere near the D area and play through some free play offers at the D, Las Vegas club/Plaza. Golden Nugget and Downtown Grand are in our rotation as well, but we split downtown play into 2 days and they are on another trip. El Cortez has great low limit blackjack but is notoriously sweaty, so I play short unrated sessions and we get no mail offers from them. I am heads up at the double deck game. Very average 60% penetration, I am getting 12 rounds before shuffle. First time through the shoe (El Cortez uses a shoe for their double deck), count stays pretty neutral. It rises slightly, just enough that at any other game, I would have bumped up my bet to the next level, but at EC, I bypass that and wait for something more significant. That second time through that something significant occurs. After 3 rounds, the true count is slightly more than +2. I make my first jump to $150. I lose when the dealer draws to a 20, but that means more small cards and I am in max bet territory. My max bets differ by casino tolerance level and at sweaty El Cortez on a weekday morning, I am topping out at $250, much less than most places. I get 8 rounds at max bet. The final round really wasn't max bet as count had dropped slightly, but it was still significantly positive so I remained at $250. Having shown my bet spread, I exit at the shuffle, rather than retreat back to a smaller wager. Unfortunately, I lost $1000 in those final 8 rounds of max bet, including one key double down. Total EV for the 24 rounds played: $24, total lost $1075.

On to The D were I hit the 6 deck BJ game. A very mediocre game as far as penetration and rules, but somehow D results are always in my top 5 casino results. I play through one shoe, with two other players, again showing my spread once and exiting at the shuffle. That is 22 rounds. My EV for 6 deck at that spread is 85 cents per round. That is slightly less than $19 EV (total EV $100). I register a small win of $225 (total loss $850). My partner has played through $115 free play at D on 3 different accounts for EV of about $113. His actual return was $145. He also played through a total of $6000 on two of the accounts to continue to generate our mail. That was an expected value loss of about $60. His actual loss was greater coming in at -$265. Subtracting the expected value loss of $60 from our free play EV of 113, we will call this EV +53, bringing our total EV for the day to $137 and our total loss for the day to -$970. The second pit at El Cortez is now open, so I close the downtown trip with a second short blackjack session at El Cortez, winning $325 over 2 times through the double deck game with 3 other people That's roughly $12 in EV.

My partner is waiting in the car across the street from EC and we head up Las Vegas Blvd to Paradise to LVH/Westgate, the former Las Vegas Hilton. We self park and immediately head to the monorail for a trip to the lower strip. It would have been more convenient to drive to lower strip, but my partner likes the monorail ride. It is as close as Vegas has to the subway back in his native Philadelphia. Lol. At $1 a ride for locals, we 'splurge'. :)

At MGM I play through two, 6 deck shoes of blackjack, registering a win of $562.50 with EV of $36. I play unrated at MGM, because I don't want to risk losing the whole chain, with any kind of backoff or heat issues. My partner heads across the street to Hooters, to play our weekly free play, $70 on 3 accounts, EV: $69. No play through, to generate continuing comps. That will come on another visit. We meet up at Tropicana, were we both play short sessions of blackjack. He wins $125, I lose $375. Total EV for the day: $316, Total loss for the day: -$332.50.

Back on the monorail to LVH. It's 1:45 and we head straight to the buffet, which closes at 2:30 (reopens at 5). Weekday lunch price is $19.99, but $4 for local, paying with points, which we do. This is one of the better values for locals in my opinion. After lunch my partner plays through our free play, $130 on three accounts, EV: $127, actual return a disappointing $55. He also plays through $6000 coin at a negative EV of $60. His actual results are +45.

I hit the blackjack table. I like the low limit table at LVH, because it offers a side bet called wild aces, which generates extra EV. The crowded conditions of the low limit table probably offset, the benefit, but I still enjoy it. I play through three shoes, with the count never going very far from neutral. EV: $45, actual loss -$137.50.

Total expected value for the day: $428. Actual loss: -$370. At 3:10, we head home for a dip in the pool and a nap. :)
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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August 15th, 2014 at 10:32:33 AM permalink
Great write up. This really shows the amount of time and effort required to play as a pro.
kmumf
kmumf
Joined: Jul 5, 2011
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August 15th, 2014 at 10:46:25 AM permalink
Thanks for the read. Please feel free to add more in the future.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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August 15th, 2014 at 10:52:46 AM permalink
I always appreciate your stories. Not all pros are willing to show us wannabees how much work is involved. From an outsiders perspective it seems like a lot of fun other than the stress of the money.

Question, you said he ran about 12k through at 2 locations to keep the mailers. Don't you think you would get better mailers from 1 location if you ran that amount there instead of spreading it out?
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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August 15th, 2014 at 11:04:59 AM permalink
post of the month kewlj!

On a couple of prior trips, I got a glimpse of the 'locals' craps life by meeting with superrick.

Now I have a great glimpse at what a 'local' AP's day looks like.

How do you determine how long to play each day?
Do you play to a certain EV amount, and whatever the result is, that is what you take?
Or, do you play to a set win/loss amount?

It is obvious that you play short sessions to keep from getting any heat, but as a local, you must be hitting the same places week after week. I can be quite clueless at times, but I gotta say, I am pretty certain I would start recognizing you week after week, especially if you are throwing out $300+ sized bets.
Do you think they let you play, since you don't pound on them shoe after shoe?
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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August 15th, 2014 at 11:11:28 AM permalink
I was kind of thiking the same thing as Raleigh. I enjoy the posts and your honesty, but are you taking a risk by posting this info? It seems like the El Cortez would be all over your big bets and some PB would be asking for a reshuffle.
chickenman
chickenman
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
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August 15th, 2014 at 11:13:05 AM permalink
Good questions. I have often wondered about longevity even given the numerous games available in Vegas and the ability to alternate against a wide range of days/shifts.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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August 15th, 2014 at 11:34:58 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

I was kind of thiking the same thing as Raleigh. I enjoy the posts and your honesty, but are you taking a risk by posting this info? It seems like the El Cortez would be all over your big bets and some PB would be asking for a reshuffle.



Of course, kewlj could always be giving out the correct details of the play, but be mistaken of which casino ;-)
That would leave a few PBs spinning their wheels.......
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
chickenman
chickenman
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
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August 15th, 2014 at 11:37:02 AM permalink
I thought the same thing, IIRC he's backed off from a few places so wouldn't hurt at all to fictionalize the account with their names
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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August 15th, 2014 at 12:15:44 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Total expected value for the day: $428. Actual loss: -$370.



How many days a week end like this?
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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