How much will it take to get you to quit forever?

Imagine the Magic McNugget has chosen to grant you, and only you, one guaranteed winning hour in any casino. However, there is a catch... This will be your last hour in a casino. After that last magical session, for the remainder of your life, everytime you attempt to place a wager, or set foot in a gambling establishment, the Magic McNugget will instantly transport you to the restroom of the nearest McDonald's.

Question for the poll: How big would the minimum guaranteed win have to be for you to use the hour, and never gamble again?

Second question: If you accept the hour, what game(s) would you play for your last 60 minutes?

Even though I know better, if I won $10M from a casino, I'd always think just a LITTLE BIT that I could go back to the casino to win more. I mean our brains are wired this way, right?

Might as well make the win on something stupid. How about the big 6 wheel?

I'll take an hour of a positive Martingale (the incredible press) on a full craps table. That would be legendary.

If I was guaranteed to win no matter what bet I placed, I would pick a $10,000,000+ jackpot and get it over with in one spin.

It wouldn't truly be random if I knew I were going to win. I would enjoy winning, but no reason to drag out the process on something that's a sure thing.

No deal. No point in having money and still being powerless. Being unable to go into a casino, that's powerlessness and you can't trust these creatures. They're always laying down a plan to backfire your hopes.

wow what a question. I always said that if I had a ton of money I would play poker and gamble a lot. Having that huge win and not being able to gamble again does not sound fun. But having money to retire now would be great. hmmmm I don't know the answer for me, I will have to think about this.

Most people are going to say 10 Million. I bet they are lying to themselves and would take far less if someone came to them with a stack of cash.They would be fools not to. Of couse there are some very ambitious Advantage players doing some valuable things worth far more then 10 million (Phil Ivey comes to mind)

**Recreational gamblers should do it for 10k**

For someone with a gambling addiction there is no number(they just think there is). Once they have the money and cant gamble anymore, they will beg the Magic McNugget to turn back time.

A smart advantage player should just calculate how much they can realistically make until they can no longer gamble. Take the cash now and use the time and money to invest in a business they really love. (start your own gaming bar or dotty's if you must)

However I found a loop hole in Magic McNugget proposition. I can use the money to gamble online since I wont be in a casino, or have a friend make sports bets for me, play skill based games(ROCK PAPER SCISSORS ONLINE HERE I COME !!!). Play in home poker games.

If you know what you are doing as an advantage player, you could take half the money and create a small team to play for you. I'm sure there are a few smart guys around. Guys that are young ambitious and new to the AP world and are very interested in Advantage play but, they just don't have the money, know all the plays or exactly where to start.

Quote: AxelWolf

Most people are going to say 10 Million. I bet they are lying to themselves and would take far less if someone came to them with a stack of cash.They would be fools not to. Of couse there are some very ambitious Advantage players doing some valuable things worth far more then 10 million (Phil Ivey comes to mind)

Not necessarily. Any time you retire, you know that you could make more money if you kept working. The point is that you get your time in exchange for giving up that additional money. I'd quit my job and never work again for $10 million even if I thought I could make $20 million over the next 10 years (this is hypothetical -- I cannot make that much). The reason is that $10 million is enough for me to live the way I enjoy living for the rest of my life, so the 10 years of my time is worth a lot more to me than the extra $10 million.

If you enjoy gambling it's different, which is why....

Quote:

**Recreational gamblers should do it for 10k**

I disagree with this. If it's recreational then you are doing it for fun. How much would I have to pay you to give up one of your hobbies? It depends on how much money you already have and how much you enjoyed the hobby. If you offered my $10k to give up video games for the rest of my life I'd refuse in a heartbeat, because I enjoy video games and $10k is a relatively small amount of money. On the other hand if you offered me $1 million I'd do it. I'd probably say no for $100k as well.

Quote:

play skill based games(ROCK PAPER SCISSORS ONLINE HERE I COME !!!).

Advantage spelling bees....

Quote: Ayecarumba

Imagine the Magic McNugget has chosen to grant you, and only you, one guaranteed winning hour in any casino. However, there is a catch... This will be your last hour in a casino. After that last magical session, for the remainder of your life, everytime you attempt to place a wager, or set foot in a gambling establishment, the Magic McNugget will instantly transport you to the restroom of the nearest McDonald's.

Question for the poll: How big would the minimum guaranteed win have to be for you to use the hour, and never gamble again?

Second question: If you accept the hour, what game(s) would you play for your last 60 minutes?

My hard number would be $1M but seeing as how I'd have to pay taxes on the above scenario I answered $2M. I would play blackjack.

The second biggest contract my firm has right now is with DR Horton home builders. With $1M I would buy two Hawaii properties from DR at a decent discount, leaving about $300K left to purchase a small condo back home in Oregon by my mama. Rent out the Hawaii properties ballpark of about $6K/month and go back to guiding salmon fishing on the Columbia.

Sell the houses after their value doubled. Repeat as necessary.

I'm with you. One spin for a huge lump sum of money and run! haha

Instead of being guaranteed a winning one hour session, I would want to change it so that I WILL NOT LOSE ANY BET for an hour.

That would satisfy me.

I'd bet max $100K (or more, whatever I could negotiate) per hand at baccarat at MGM.

Get out of here, Kerry Packer (RIP), there's a new dog in town.

Ka-ching.

Quote: Ahigh

If I was guaranteed to win no matter what bet I placed, I would pick a $10,000,000+ jackpot and get it over with in one spin.

It wouldn't truly be random if I knew I were going to win. I would enjoy winning, but no reason to drag out the process on something that's a sure thing.

I find this a very interesting response Ahigh. I didn't think about it, but if you know you are going to win, I suppose it would lose alot of the "juice". Perhaps the mystery is how much you would win keeps it interesting...

I think there was a "Twilight Zone" episode where a guy couldn't lose no matter what game he played or bet he made...

Quote: Ayecarumba

I think there was a "Twilight Zone" episode where a guy couldn't lose no matter what game he played or bet he made...

Spoiler Here

The twist ending is that he is in Hell

This was a GREAT episode.

Quote: VCUSkyhawk

Quote: Ayecarumba

I think there was a "Twilight Zone" episode where a guy couldn't lose no matter what game he played or bet he made...

Spoiler Here

The twist ending is that he is in Hell

This was a GREAT episode.

Yep. That's the one...

Quote: DotProgramming

I'm with you. One spin for a huge lump sum of money and run! haha

Not me. I would use my 1 hr wisely, on the highest denomination of slots . I would play a property that comps outside the casino or has venues not in the Casio, like The Hard Rock. this way I can get an hr worth of high limit slot play/ Something with the worst payback and best theo, That way I can get comps and bonce back I, will have my GF pick up the free play for me.

Too good be true and I'm surprised people smarter than me are so foolish. This is just Revel you can't lose all over again.

Quote: MrV

Instead of being guaranteed a winning one hour session, I would want to change it so that I WILL NOT LOSE ANY BET for an hour.

That would satisfy me.

I'd bet max $100K (or more, whatever I could negotiate) per hand at baccarat at MGM.

Get out of here, Kerry Packer (RIP), there's a new dog in town.

Ka-ching.

We had your ass covered long before you were born, kid.

Quote: AxelWolf

Most people are going to say 10 Million. I bet they are lying to themselves and would take far less if someone came to them with a stack of cash.They would be fools not to. Of couse there are some very ambitious Advantage players doing some valuable things worth far more then 10 million (Phil Ivey comes to mind)

It seems most folks need at least $10M+ to quit forever. I would do it for a $1M guarantee, and would seriously consider it for a minimum win of $500k. Who knows, since it is a minimum win, the end result could be much more right?

Quote: AxelWolf

However I found a loop hole in Magic McNugget proposition. I can use the money to gamble online since I wont be in a casino, or have a friend make sports bets for me, play skill based games(ROCK PAPER SCISSORS ONLINE HERE I COME !!!). Play in home poker games.

You may find yourself in the restroom at Mickey D's....

Quote: AxelWolf

If you know what you are doing as an advantage player, you could take half the money and create a small team to play for you. I'm sure there are a few smart guys around. Guys that are young ambitious and new to the AP world and are very interested in Advantage play but, they just don't have the money, know all the plays or exactly where to start.

Could you trust them since you can't watch them?

Quote: Ayecarumba

It seems most folks need at least $10M+ to quit forever. I would do it for a $1M guarantee, and would seriously consider it for a minimum win of $500k. Who knows, since it is a minimum win, the end result could be much more right?



You may find yourself in the restroom at Mickey D's....


Could you trust them since you can't watch them?

If we switch it from bathroom at McDonalds to bathroom at Chipotle, we'd have a nice deal.

How awesome is that, every time I try to go to work I end up at Chipotle!?

Quote: RS

If we switch it from bathroom at McDonalds to bathroom at Chipotle, we'd have a nice deal.

How awesome is that, every time I try to go to work I end up at Chipotle!?

Hehe... Please hold, while I check with the Magic McNugget...

The answer is "No".

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'll take an hour of a positive Martingale (the incredible press) on a full craps table. That would be legendary.

Crappers for me, for the hour. $100,000 would do it.

If you have such winning streak you will get sued like phil ivey

Quote: Ayecarumba

one guaranteed winning hour in any casino.

One guaranteed winning hour - does that mean that I'm net positive at the end of it, or does that mean that I don't lose a bet the whole time?

Quote: Ayecarumba

Second question: If you accept the hour, what game(s) would you play for your last 60 minutes?

If I win every bet I make for an hour, and I know that I'll win every bet I make for an hour, the goal should be high payour rates. Smacking a slot machine and getting $1.01 for every $1 is technically a win, but it's not going to help me enough long term to be worthwhile. (Exception: if they offered an unusal "longshot only" slot machine that only had a large jackpot payout, but the other 99%+ of the time paid nothing. Since I'm guaranteed a win... it's worthwhile, but only at the last minute of the run, since I don't want to waste 15-20 minutes waiting on a handpay and paperwork.)

Roulette straight bets at 35:1 are a good starting point. (I'll start with 2 rounds on 22, just because I like Casablanca, not sure where I'll move it to after that. $5 -> $230k in 3 spins, if I can let it ride.) If I can find a high-limit big six wheel, that's even better. Once I've taken all the chips off the table (shouldn't be more than about 8 minutes; bumping up against the table max already), it's probably a good time to head to the racebook and place a $100 bet (or as much action as they'll take) on a longshot superfecta for each race that's running before my time is up (should be able to get at least 4000:1, right? Starting to look like some real money...). Once those bets are placed, I should be able to spend a few minutes gathering chips on hopping hardways, and maybe hit up a baccarat table for the tie bet.

While a straight flush bad beat on ultimate texas hold-em is tempting, I'm not going to risk my extremely limited time on it. I'm guaranteed a with, not the top win.

If it's just a guaranteed net-positive run, then I'll have to pass. If I'm guaranteed a win on every bet, I'm looking for the highest guaranteed odds with the highest available limits - high stakes longshots. Max bet limits are more likely to be a constraint than anything else, otherwise $5 becomes about $5g (that's Billion) in 30 minutes at one double per minute. If I'm guaranteed a fixed payout number, it's a maybe.

If I'm doing it right, I should be very quickly constrained by the table max, and feeling annoyed any time I'm coloring up to leave a table. Once the table is low (or out) of chips, I'd be wasting time to wait for a fill - it's time to move on, and quickly. I'm not particularly worried about running the house out of cash; I can take my payout as a check.

Quote: Ayecarumba

everytime you attempt to ... set foot in a gambling establishment, the Magic McNugget will instantly transport you to the restroom of the nearest McDonald's.

I'll kind of miss crab leg & prime rib night at the buffet... unless, of course, I'm just not allowed on the gaming floor.

After the hour is up and I'm not allowed to place bets of my own anymore, I'd like to own a casino, if I can swing it (by the terms, I'm not allowed to place a wager, but it doesn't say I can't accept a wager). I hear that's the best way to gamble, anyway. (Not during the hour, of course - players would stop the action after about 20 minutes if nobody in the place had won anything, thinking that I'd rigged the outcomes somehow.)

Anyone who wouldn't do it for $10m probably isn't thinking about the problem correctly. That works out to about $550 a day for the next 50 years, which ought to be a fairly comfortable standard of living.

Quote: Dieter

One guaranteed winning hour - does that mean that I'm net positive at the end of it, or does that mean that I don't lose a bet the whole time?

It means you are net positive a minimum of the level you selected. You might not win every bet you place, but at the end of the night you will be at least $(enter poll figure here) ahead of where you started. It could be much, much, more, but it won't be less.

1-2M. Frankly though, I might be fine with 300-500k.

This is a tough one. I would want enough to retire and never work again, obviously. But then, if I'm retired....I would want to gamble! So it's either $1MM or pass...still thinking about it.

Quote: Dieter

One guaranteed winning hour - does that mean that I'm net positive at the end of it, or does that mean that I don't lose a bet the whole time?

Doesn't matter. If it's the former, just bet ALL your money every single time. If you ever lose a single bet, you will be broke, and won't be able to get your winnings back, which would violate the guarantee.

I am SO ready to make a deal with the devil....

Thank you for all the entertainment you provided us James Garner. ... always taught me, the only time you ever quit when you're winnin' is after you've won it all.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

just bet ALL your money every single time

Apparently, part of the offer is a house without limits that will book any action. Otherwise, we're up against table limits in a few very short minutes, meaning I might start losing.

If I'm not guaranteed to win every bet without betting it all, it's either not worthwhile, or it's over much more quickly than 1 hour.

Quote: Dieter

Apparently, part of the offer is a house without limits that will book any action.

Not necessarily. You might just not have very much money.