bbbbcccc
bbbbcccc
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:31:56 PM permalink
Fill out a perfect NCAA bracket, win a billion dollars

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/college-basketball/warrenn-buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-ncaa-/ncwjr/
Buzzard
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:36:25 PM permalink
Is the money in an escrow account ? I don't want to spend time winning this and then not get paid !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Transcend
Transcend
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:43:25 PM permalink
Quote: bbbbcccc

Fill out a perfect NCAA bracket, win a billion dollars

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/college-basketball/warrenn-buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-ncaa-/ncwjr/



The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/ncaa-tournament-perfect-bracket-odds-quintillion/1999795/?showmenu=true
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly. -George Raft
bbbbcccc
bbbbcccc
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:44:11 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Is the money in an escrow account ? I don't want to spend time winning this and then not get paid !



It's insured by Berkshire, and Buffett has publicly commented on it. Of all people, I don't think Buffett is the one that would ruin his reputation at the end of his life by refusing to pay it off. The guy is old and knows he can't take it all with him.
bbbbcccc
bbbbcccc
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:45:29 PM permalink
Yeah, the ESPN game has millions of entires a year, and no one ever wins. Still, at a billion dollars, this is sort of like a larger lottery with longer odds and no investment of $1.
befamous7
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:45:53 PM permalink
Quote: Transcend

The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808



So you're telling me there's a chance?
thecesspit
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January 21st, 2014 at 1:58:28 PM permalink
US citizens only.... sigh...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Transcend
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January 21st, 2014 at 2:01:55 PM permalink
Quote: befamous7

So you're telling me there's a chance?



There is always a chance....and you may as well enter if you can
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly. -George Raft
tringlomane
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January 21st, 2014 at 2:16:46 PM permalink
Quote: Transcend

The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/ncaa-tournament-perfect-bracket-odds-quintillion/1999795/?showmenu=true



That's if you pick blindly though.

If you have a 2/3rds chance of winning every game (more realistic), then you have 1 in 124 billion chance of being perfect.
Transcend
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January 21st, 2014 at 2:26:17 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

That's if you pick blindly though.

If you have a 2/3rds chance of winning every game (more realistic), then you have 1 in 124 billion chance of being perfect.



True but still rather outrageous chances
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly. -George Raft
treetopbuddy
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January 21st, 2014 at 2:26:56 PM permalink
Quote: befamous7

So you're telling me there's a chance?



funny line from Dumb and Dumber
Each day is better than the next
Ayecarumba
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January 21st, 2014 at 2:59:00 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

US citizens only.... sigh...



I'm happy to put in your picks cesspit... for a small fee...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
100xOdds
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:04:02 PM permalink
Quote: Transcend

The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/ncaa-tournament-perfect-bracket-odds-quintillion/1999795/?showmenu=true



so whats to prevent someone from filling out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 entries via automated script?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxiomOfChoice
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:06:29 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so whats to prevent someone from filling out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 entries via automated script?



Well, it's one entry per household.

But, don't worry, I'm WAY ahead of you. Just buying up some property...
bbbbcccc
bbbbcccc
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:07:47 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so whats to prevent someone from filling out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 entries via automated script?



There is a limit of one entry per household
thecesspit
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:10:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Well, it's one entry per household.

But, don't worry, I'm WAY ahead of you. Just buying up some property...



Yeah, we considered that already this morning in the office...then looked at how long it'd take to enter those values anyways. 106 Million days, at 1 million entries per second.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Transcend
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:15:24 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Yeah, we considered that already this morning in the office...then looked at how long it'd take to enter those values anyways. 106 Million days, at 1 million entries per second.



And if you had to print them as well...ouch...lucky to print 1 copy per second. Not to mention postage and all the licking of the envelopes.
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly. -George Raft
GWAE
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:25:10 PM permalink
any idea how much the insurance is costing them?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Ibeatyouraces
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:25:49 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mission146
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:28:01 PM permalink
That's what I am saying, how many would be left if you excluded any possible combination that involves a #16 seed beating a #1 seed, given that it has never happened?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:32:59 PM permalink
what the hell does "perfect" mean, scores too?

Quote:

odds of a person with basketball knowledge correctly predicting every game is 1 in 128 billion.



that strikes me as exaggerated ... somebody good might have better chances than that, seems to me
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Boz
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January 21st, 2014 at 3:33:07 PM permalink
Hope someone wins because I never liked this asshole since he ranted for higher taxes for higher income earners. He of all people made it because of taking chances and risking it all to get ahead instead of sitting on the sidelines and making the easy decision instead of the right one at every fork in the road that we all face thousands of times in our life. Then he wants to punish these people even more than they already are by an unfair tax system. But people like him think they are better than you and I and we could NEVER do what he did and that is why he thinks we need people like him to look out for us. Typical liberal nonsense and superiority. And while I am at it, the steaks from Omaha really are not worth the money and I wish they would stop calling me all the time trying to sell me more just because I sent someone I really did not care that much about a gift of them a few years ago.

By the way, I am assuming Mr Buffet is not a member here, otherwise I will see you in 3 days for calling him an asshole.
100xOdds
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January 21st, 2014 at 4:12:04 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Yeah, we considered that already this morning in the office...then looked at how long it'd take to enter those values anyways. 106 Million days, at 1 million entries per second.



even with the processing power of a datacenter and a oc-128 internet connection?
(yeah I might get fired if they catch me, but i'll be $1B richer)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Tomspur
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January 21st, 2014 at 4:40:49 PM permalink
You don't have a ticket, you don't have a chance. Sometimes you just have to take somethings on trust!! :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
thecesspit
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January 21st, 2014 at 4:45:46 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

even with the processing power of a datacenter and a oc-128 internet connection?
(yeah I might get fired if they catch me, but i'll be $1B richer)



It's the size of the pipe and server at the other end you'll have to worry about :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
beachbumbabs
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January 21st, 2014 at 5:19:02 PM permalink
I think we need to get beardgoat lined up on this. He's a pick-em powerhouse!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
paisiello
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January 21st, 2014 at 5:33:00 PM permalink
Let's say there are 100million US households. Let's assume also that only 5% of these households will bother to enter = 5million total legitimate entries.

You auto-generate 100 million entries for each household that each have a different prediction associated. Further assume that that the predictions generated are an expert based system that gives you a 1 in 124 billion chance of guessing right. Therefore, you have a probability of winning:

P = (100million /124,000million)(90million / 100million) = 0.0766%

since 95% of your predictions will not be disqualified for having duplicate addresses.

Now, after you reach the final four you will have a pretty good idea of which household addresses will win based on your predictions. You would then need to enter into negotiations with the owners and offer them a hefty incentive to retroactively lease the address temporarily for a year. Part of the agreement is that they would have to stipulate that they did not enter into any contests in the last few months since there is a remote possibility that someone at the address entered the contest. So you would need a large amount of capital to do this: say $25,000 per household = $100,000.

Finally, I assume that Buffett wouldn't just mail you a check. I assume he would want a lot of paper work filled out and he would do a very detailed background check on you. There is still a good chance that they would discover that you made multiple entries and disqualify you.

Conclusion: Not worth the time and energy to write the code to do this.
Beardgoat
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January 21st, 2014 at 5:34:04 PM permalink
Picking all 67 games is pretty much Impossible. Someone posted the odds and it was over a trillion. I don't even know the real odds because i dont know what comes after a trillion :)

My opinion is If it were to ever happen, most of the top ranked seeds would have to win, and then at that point you probably have quite a few brackets all the same and end up splitting the money. Anyway I don't think I'll see a perfect bracket in my lifetime.
ThatDonGuy
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January 21st, 2014 at 6:10:32 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

what the hell does "perfect" mean, scores too?


No - you just have to pick the winners of the 63 games starting with the Round of 64. If you assume each team has a 50% chance of winning any particular game, the chance of getting all 63 right is 263.

Even if you assume that all four of the #1 seeds will win their first games (since no 16 seed has ever beaten a 1, although at least one came close, and you have to realize that there have only been 116 #1 vs #16 games in the history of the tournament; also, it has happened in the women's tournament, albeit with a bit of an asterisk as the #1 team played without its two top players), that's still 259 possible brackets, or over 576 quadrillion to 1 odds against you.
bbbbcccc
bbbbcccc
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February 21st, 2014 at 3:16:08 PM permalink
Apparently, Buffet wasn't the first one to come up with the idea. I also like the speculation that the insurance on the contest likely cost somewhere between a penny and a million dollars.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/03/yahoo-sued-buffett-ncaa/?iid=obinsite
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 12:32:24 PM permalink
Supposedly 83% of the entries blew up as a result of Ohio St. losing….
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 12:40:59 PM permalink
Upon further reading 95% of the brackets when down in flames yesterday. Three upsets.
Each day is better than the next
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:11:48 PM permalink
I got Harvard and Stanford right, picking the upset. But I got Ohio State and now Duke (among others, of course) wrong.
FinsRule
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:14:40 PM permalink
I imagine no one has a perfect bracket as of now. If there is a handful, I'm sure they won't survive the night.
SkittleCar1
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:22:48 PM permalink
According to ESPN, there is still a little over 2,000 still in.
tringlomane
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:24:34 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I imagine no one has a perfect bracket as of now. If there is a handful, I'm sure they won't survive the night.



Espn had 11 million entries and about 16k perfects thru day 1. A couple of those may survive day 2. Duke losing will make it tough though.
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:24:50 PM permalink
Quote: SkittleCar1

According to ESPN, there is still a little over 2,000 still in.



How many entries?
Each day is better than the next
tringlomane
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:26:36 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

How many entries?



See my post 16 seconds earlier...lol
AceTwo
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:13:54 PM permalink
I think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)

The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.
AcesAndEights
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:17:45 PM permalink
Quote: AceTwo

I think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)

The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.


If I had a billion dollars I would invest it, so I would be putting it back into the economy :)
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:24:50 PM permalink
I'm not so sure that it would ever get to that point.

If before the final four, or perhaps the finals, they offer to buy you out for a few hundred million, would you say no, or risk it all by staying in?
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:26:06 PM permalink
Quote: AceTwo

I think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)

The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.



I'd love to see somebody win the billion……we can then watch the cat self destruct. Love riches to rags stories.
Each day is better than the next
bw
bw
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:29:16 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

I'd love to see somebody win the billion……we can then watch the cat self destruct. Love riches to rags stories.



Maybe something like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Shakespeare
RS
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:31:46 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

I'm not so sure that it would ever get to that point.

If before the final four, or perhaps the finals, they offer to buy you out for a few hundred million, would you say no, or risk it all by staying in?



You take the few hundred million. Or sell it for half that, and agree if it wins you get an extra 1/3billion.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:32:45 PM permalink
Quote: bw

Maybe something like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Shakespeare



Thanks for making my day a little brighter
Each day is better than the next
bw
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:33:05 PM permalink
I wouldn't even need a few hundred million. Give me 10 million and I will be happy.
michael99000
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:33:55 PM permalink
Quote: AceTwo

I think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)

The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.



It's his billion, he can do whatever he wants with it.
Dalex64
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:39:13 PM permalink
Down to 11 people now.


/edited to add:

Everyone who is left has picked Kansas, who at the end of the first half is tied with E. Kentucky.

So, it could be all over at the end of this game.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:40:23 PM permalink
John Patrick is probability one of the eleven….bastard
Each day is better than the next
AcesAndEights
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:41:24 PM permalink
Quote: bw

I wouldn't even need a few hundred million. Give me 10 million and I will be happy.


Give me $1.5 million right now and I will stop working next week.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
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