Slot/Math/help

I just want to know the estimated odds Of losing $650 over 1800 spins/coin in.

20 lines .5 cents per line, assume the average slot loss no real big jackpots. I cant get you much more info I would say it has an average volatility you would find on a video slot with free spin bonuses.

Quote: AxelWolf

I just want to know the estimated odds Of losing $650 over 1800 spins/coin in. 20 lines .5 cents per line, assume the average slot loss no real big jackpots. I cant get you much more info I would say it has an average volatility you would find on a video slot with free spin bonuses.

I don't know how to put odds on it but 36% is a huge drop on 1800 spins as most of the payback is in the lower pays. If it were an accumulator slot like a cherry pie I wouldn't think anything of it. But it looks like you were playing a line game here.

I'm not sure. If you would take an expected payback divided into the bank roll you can calculate expected coin-in upon losing it. $300 completely lost at 85% you would expect to get about $2000 coin-in. Does this mean your money was returned at about 40%? Maybe, not sure if I am understanding the math right. How to calculate the odds I don't know.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

$300 completely lost at 85% you would expect to get about $2000 coin-in. Does this mean your money was returned at about 40%?

It was $1,150 returned on $1,800, so 64%.

My guess would be something like a 5% occurrence. Compare to a 95% DDB video poker game. If you go quadless for 1800 hands, your return is under 75%, and that's unlikely but quite possible. The slot game is probably well below 95%, and is designed for high variance, the only mitigating factor being the multiple paylines to reduce volatility.

I'm going to say that I can see something like this happening, but I'm just basing it on personal experience and observation.

You would be looking at 1150/1800 = 63.89% return on the $1,800 coin-in with a sample size of 1800 spins.

I think much of this will come down to the average value of the Free Games. The Wizard has suggested that Free Games generally have an ER of about 20x the amount bet, on average, if I recall correctly, and I would say that I largely agree with that assessment from personal experience. However, it is more wirth some games and it is less with others, and then there's the question of frequency.

I think Quick Hits Platinum (though $1.50 bet) may provide a good example:

http://www.arcade-history.com/?n=black-and-white-sevens-quick-hit-platinum&page=detail&id=32113

We see that the probability of Free Games is 1/96, so you should have:

1800/96 = 18.75 sets of Free Games in 1800 spins.

Now, let's say instead of the expected 18.75 you actually get ten in that number of spins.

Based on that and only that, you'd have a 20 * 8.75 = $175 swing to the bad, again, assuming average ER of Free Games of 20x bet.

I'm completely shooting from the hip, but I want to say 5-15% depending on the machine and how important the Free Games are. Probably closer to the 5%, perhaps someone who programs slot machines will see the thread and enlighten us.

Quote: gpac1377

It was $1,150 returned on $1,800, so 64%.

My guess would be something like a 5% occurrence. Compare to a 95% DDB video poker game. If you go quadless for 1800 hands, your return is under 75%, and that's unlikely but quite possible. The slot game is probably well below 95%, and is designed for high variance, the only mitigating factor being the multiple paylines to reduce volatility.

(1- (0.000062+0.000143+0.000175+0.000385+0.001638))^1800 = 0.01315957947 or 1.316%

Reasonable, and then you have 5-K, but only hitting it once, stuff like that.

I would also still imagine that 95.5% DDB has less Variance than many slot machines, so yeah, I'd say a return that bad will happen once in a while.

Quote: Mission146

(1- (0.000062+0.000143+0.000175+0.000385+0.001638))^1800 = 0.01315957947 or 1.316%

Reasonable, and then you have 5-K, but only hitting it once, stuff like that.

I would also still imagine that 95.5% DDB has less Variance than many slot machines, so yeah, I'd say a return that bad will happen once in a while.

THANK YOU EVERYONE this is exactly what I was looking for.

Mission: free spins seem to mean a lot on the game but are fairly predictable as to how often they come up.(and then it had a huge drop off)

The machine dose not seem to have high variance or even a horrible hold most of the times I have played it. Only at the end of my wagering requirements. At 8 times wagering I seem to do ok on small amounts under $200 bucks. Anything over that amount with 12x wagering I get slammed no matter how big i hit for.

Its not a big deal as far as money lost nor was going to go into a IT's rigged rant. I was more concerned that I was able to predict what was going to happen as it always seems to do before finishing. (Ya ya I know its probably gaffed, don't play online casinos yada, yada, yada)

Since this was on a mostly sports book online, where the casino is secondary, I often get offered free bonus money in the casino as a part of my deal with the agent, so its just extra money I get to play with and no big deal. I didn't feel like playing the crappy low limit 7/5 very slow VP with 5x more wagering, I just wanted to relax and auto spin while arguing with a forum member.

I wanted to make sure this was not some totally outrageous result. If it continues and I can reasonably prove to my agent its gaffed I will demand demand he make up for this.

How many spins Do you guys think is needed to track a slot. I know some guys do it with, what I consider a small sample size, I am never comfortable with less then 5k spins.

Quote: AxelWolf

THANK YOU EVERYONE this is exactly what I was looking for.

Mission: free spins seem to mean a lot on the game but are fairly predictable as to how often they come up.(and then it had a huge drop off)

I wanted to make sure this was not some totally outrageous result. If it continues and I can reasonably prove to my agent its gaffed I will demand demand he make up for this.

How many spins Do you guys think is needed to track a slot. I know some guys do it with, what I consider a small sample size, I am never comfortable with less then 5k spins.

I don't know, I would say many more spins than 5K if you're tracking it for return v. Expected Return and looking to allege unfairness in that regard. There are a number of difficulties in even attempting to do that:

1.) Unless there's something in the HELP file that tells you directly, you don't even know what the Expected Return of the game is, and I am not aware whether they have any kind of statutory minimum with whoever licenses them. For example, the machine could have a fair return of 80%, or even lower, which would make your results even more likely. Bonus Games could be weighted as 40% of the overall return, which means just being a couple of Bonus Games over/under expected is going to be a huge swing.

I was basing my 5% on a machine in a brick-and-mortar casino where I assume an average Base Pay of about 90%, which is just the baseline I use for things like this.

2.) If the place in question is really more well known for being a sportsbook, then I could see where the return would suck, they probably hardly care about the casino client. Also, wasn't that big issue with BetFred those two games that (based on fair cards) had an implied Expected Return of 100%, and actually the Help file said it was an Expected Return of 100%, but the hold was actually 4%?

I could be wrong, but was it not decided that the casino itself was likely not aware of the fix?

3.) Questions

A.) What is the highest Line Pay relative to the amount bet on that Line?

B.) Does the help file say anything about the frequency of Free Games or the overall Expected Return?

C.) Did you track how many times you hit Free Games within those 800 spins already?

D.) Is there a Progressive jackpot for some specific result on the machine?

E.) Are there scatter jackpots, how much are they for?

These questions will be pretty relevant in determining what kind of sample size would be reasonable. It's an on-line game, so I would assume that it is rigged, the only question is whether or not it is detectably rigged...

Quote: AxelWolf

I just want to know the estimated odds Of losing $650 over 1800 spins/coin in.

20 lines .5 cents per line, assume the average slot loss no real big jackpots. I cant get you much more info I would say it has an average volatility you would find on a video slot with free spin bonuses.

Oh hello AxelWolf someone told me you know alot about Las Vegas casino promotions, do you by any chance more where the good promotion are at? thank you 8)