AndyGB
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August 3rd, 2013 at 11:04:01 AM permalink
An insane billionaire (or a psychotic magic leprechaun, or alien overlord ...) offers you a wager in which you have a large chance of winning a large amount of money, and a small chance of losing your life. I'm interested in people's opinions about what payouts and what odds might make this an acceptable wager. For example, most people wouldn't take a 50-50 shot at $100 with their life on the line. On the other hand if the odds of losing your life get small enough, they become comparable with the odds of getting hit by a bus or whatever. To make it more concrete, let's say the amount of money is $10million. What would the odds have to be for you to take this bet. Let's say that he will make the offer to the person willing to take the highest chance of losing his life. How low would you go? Assume the game is fair and completely randomly determined (using the magic alien technology or etc).
1BB
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August 3rd, 2013 at 11:34:33 AM permalink
Good poll question. My answer is 100%.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
MrV
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August 3rd, 2013 at 11:45:42 AM permalink
I'd never take the bet.
"What, me worry?"
Wizard
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August 3rd, 2013 at 12:02:10 PM permalink
I've been one to say your happiness is proportional to ln(wealth). The answer is obviously going to depend on your wealth going into the problem. Let's say, for the sake of argument, your wealth is one million. Let p = probability of death at which you're indifferent to taking the bet.

ln(1,000,000) = (1-p)*ln(11,000,000)

1-p = ln(1M)/ln(11M)
1-p = 13.8155/16.2134
1-p = 0.8521
p = 0.1479

At a wealth of 100,000 p goes up to 0.2862.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Doc
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August 3rd, 2013 at 12:07:38 PM permalink
My answer just might be related to how terminally ill I already am at the time of the wager -- a chance to win and leave something to someone other than the insane millionaire?
wroberson
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August 3rd, 2013 at 2:34:29 PM permalink
I actually believe that when a person dies and leaves my world, he remains alive and well in his world. It's a 1st person view of the multiverse. There are 2 other views. Yours and theirs. Even with this belief, I am in no hurry to find out or prove it. It's called quantum immortality. There's only one way to prove the theory, but you can only prove it to yourself.
Buffering...
treetopbuddy
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August 3rd, 2013 at 3:50:21 PM permalink
provocative.....
Each day is better than the next
Wizard
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August 3rd, 2013 at 4:08:22 PM permalink
Quote: wroberson

I actually believe that when a person dies and leaves my world, he remains alive and well in his world. It's a 1st person view of the multiverse. There are 2 other views. Yours and theirs. Even with this belief, I am in no hurry to find out or prove it. It's called quantum immortality. There's only one way to prove the theory, but you can only prove it to yourself.



Is like in the Sixth Sense, or does dying spawn a parallel universe?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
beachbumbabs
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August 3rd, 2013 at 6:02:48 PM permalink
I'd only go about 2%, around the odds for not surviving serious heart surgery. I can have great fun without money, but not without life. Obviously I wouldn't get the money; there are people who risk their lives for 7 dollars every day. So I'll just hit the Powerball on the way home...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
24Bingo
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August 3rd, 2013 at 6:36:30 PM permalink
We can talk about how we wouldn't take this bet, but most of us take it every day in one form or another. I remember hearing, albeit from a rather embarrassing source, that the de facto threshold for most people is about p*($5M).
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
wroberson
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August 3rd, 2013 at 9:06:09 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Is like in the Sixth Sense, or does dying spawn a parallel universe?



It's just a transfer of energy from one universe to the next. Either the subject moves or everyone but the subject moves.

If every possible outcome exists then there's no issue and we are immortal.
However, every possible outcome is unknown.
The dice don't tumble, only the pips are moving.
Buffering...
rxwine
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August 3rd, 2013 at 10:50:09 PM permalink
I could conceive of taking the bet. It's not a bet like Russian roulette where you keep playing. You're just trying to figure whether it's worth it for one time.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
P90
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August 4th, 2013 at 3:45:30 AM permalink
I don't think there's a real mathematical answer to this. It's very psychological and depends on the exact circumstances, especially on how the risk is presented.

The biggest gamble I've consciously taken with my life was about 5%, with the value of the risk in 30k range, but it was a partially an "in-control" risk. Then again, there were times in my life when I'd jump at 50%.
I would defend 10k worth of property from an attacker at 30%+ risk, but I wouldn't participate in a combat exercise where one round per magazine is live, at 3% or less risk, for such a reward. Different circumstances.

As a straight-up bet on a roulette wheel etc, I'd be hesitant to take it at any odds unless I deem them insignificant. For a high-risk job ("in-control" risk), much more substantial odds would work, even if the end result is the same.


Quote: Wizard

I've been one to say your happiness is proportional to ln(wealth). ...


That won't explain though how some people are very happy even lacking wealth, while there still are suicides among the upper class. At the lowest end of the scale the formula breaks (is 10 dollars infinitely better than 1?), can't account for negative wealth (debt), wealth-less environments (prison, military, etc). Gets even more complicated when differences in worldwide income and self-reported or psychologically tested happiness are taken into account.

Everything else equal, we all broadly agree that more wealth is better than less, but what really matters is not so much wealth per se, as changes in current wealth and as difference in wealth from your chosen benchmarks - neighbors, parents, friends, role models, circles, etc. The log(wealth) formula is good for bankroll and optimization of its growth, but we're not so much talking happiness per se there.
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Mission146
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August 4th, 2013 at 5:57:21 AM permalink
"If I lack awareness, then why should I care what happens to me when I am dead?"-Diogenes

For ten million, give me 51/49 in favor of living, and we'd have a bet.

If you're dead, then you're dead, and you are, by definition, no longer concerned.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mosca
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August 4th, 2013 at 7:39:24 AM permalink
On the other hand, by risking your life you are putting up infinity. And you aren't actually wagering to win the money; you are wagering to avoid having to earn the money in some other fashion. You are betting your life to avoid work, or investment risk or time, or avoiding the investment in knowledge or education that would allow you to earn the money in a less precipitous way.
A falling knife has no handle.
wroberson
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August 4th, 2013 at 8:20:20 AM permalink
Our daily lives present us with a certain amount of risk. There are risk factors and numbers for everything waking up to falling asleep.


The most dangerous times for having a heart attacks are the morning and during the last phase of sleep there is a 40% increased chance for heart attacks between 6am and noon.

Eating is very dangerous. 3,000 people die in America choking on food every year. Some of the more dangerous foods are, peanut butter, fruit and vegetable chunks, soft baked good and meat. So much for breakfast.

I have a job that has a lot of risk. Delivery driver. In 2011, 759 people died at work making deliveries.

8. Driver/Sales Workers and Truck Drivers

Fatal work injury rate: 24.
Number of fatal work injuries: 759.
Projected job growth: 13 percent (about as fast as average).
Median pay: $27,050 a year -- $13 an hour.

Why it's dangerous: Like taxi drivers and chauffeurs, those who drive to make sales and deliveries spend many hours behind the wheel, increasing their odds of being an accident. Further, this can be a physically demanding job. When loading and unloading cargo, drivers do a lot of lifting, carrying and walking.


Then it's back home for dinner and beck to sleep...
Buffering...
treetopbuddy
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August 4th, 2013 at 8:23:13 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

"If I lack awareness, then why should I care what happens to me when I am dead?"-Diogenes

For ten million, give me 51/49 in favor of living, and we'd have a bet.

If you're dead, then you're dead, and you are, by definition, no longer concerned.



Damn, you appear to be the winner so far......EvenBob may be the only member willing to risk more than 49%
Each day is better than the next
Mission146
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August 4th, 2013 at 9:18:20 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

On the other hand, by risking your life you are putting up infinity. And you aren't actually wagering to win the money; you are wagering to avoid having to earn the money in some other fashion. You are betting your life to avoid work, or investment risk or time, or avoiding the investment in knowledge or education that would allow you to earn the money in a less precipitous way.



Money won is sweeter than money earned, smells better too, no sweat on your hands stinking it up!

In all seriousness, though, in today's dollars, I'm very unlikely to even earn ten million in my life, let alone having a net value just under. I could invest conservatively and spend the rest of my time doing whatever I want. Actually, in terms of probable maximum net worth, I'm getting the best of it at 51/49 to live by a long shot. In all likelihood, I should probably be butting 80/20 against living and be darn happy I'm getting odds that good!

Besides, are the terms that one should instantly die and that be it? If that's the case, technically, I'm not risking losing anything because I would no longer be cognizant of what the rest of my life could/would have been. It's practically a no-risk proposition, looking at it in those terms.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
jon
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August 4th, 2013 at 9:29:48 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been one to say your happiness is proportional to ln(wealth). The answer is obviously going to depend on your wealth going into the problem. Let's say, for the sake of argument, your wealth is one million. Let p = probability of death at which you're indifferent to taking the bet.

ln(1,000,000) = (1-p)*ln(11,000,000)



I don't think this is a true representation of the problem. This assumes that being broke is on the same par as being dead. Of course, it is much better to be alive and broke than dead. So maybe you should incorporate a "life factor" representing how much enjoyment one's life is innately worth aside from the money.
Mission146
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August 4th, 2013 at 9:34:04 AM permalink
Quote: jon

I don't think this is a true representation of the problem. This assumes that being broke is on the same par as being dead. Of course, it is much better to be alive and broke than dead. So maybe you should incorporate a "life factor" representing how much enjoyment one's life is innately worth aside from the money.



How is being dead better or worse than anything?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
jon
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August 4th, 2013 at 9:43:36 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

For ten million, give me 51/49 in favor of living, and we'd have a bet.


Wow, Mission, you really have some cojones!
jon
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August 4th, 2013 at 9:47:28 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

How is being dead better or worse than anything?



I can only work backwards, and say that I'd much prefer being alive than being dead, and thus being dead must be much worse than being alive.
Face
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August 4th, 2013 at 10:09:17 AM permalink
I have to say that I'm shocked. I always look at this site as full of a bunch of elite, baller-status gamblers, yet there's so much trepidation present in this thread.

Y'all take risks every day, many of which have a much greater than non-zero chance of you dying, and for what? To make it to work, to go pick up a gallon of milk, to have a meal at a new restaurant? But with $10mm on the line... hesitation.

I just find it strange the difference in minds. Y'all will blow, what, five figures a year at the tables? Maybe more? Yet moving up to green cheque action, or, the horror, black cheque action was enough to almost paralyze me with fear. And me, with a chance at actual death, whether it be doing 120mph wheelies weaving through traffic or doing a skeleton run with no training whatsoever, is something I'd gladly not only do, but pay many, many dollars for with no reward other than glory. But you, with $10mm dangling in front of you, hesitate.

Strange stuff. I don't know what my personal limit is, because I don't know the activity. But it's a hell of a lot higher than some 99.9% chance of safety. Make it skill based, specifically in physical ability or motorsports based, and I'd take over 50% chance of death for sure. Hell, make it motorsports based and with only a 20% chance of death, and I'll do it just for the fun of it =D
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
Mosca
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August 4th, 2013 at 10:12:28 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Besides, are the terms that one should instantly die and that be it? If that's the case, technically, I'm not risking losing anything because I would no longer be cognizant of what the rest of my life could/would have been. It's practically a no-risk proposition, looking at it in those terms.



No one wants to live forever, but everyone wants to live one more day. You are assuming an indifference to life that we just don't have, generally speaking.
A falling knife has no handle.
wroberson
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August 4th, 2013 at 11:00:02 AM permalink
Just can't do it. I like my life. I can spend 2 bucks and have a chance to win 400 million.
Buffering...
rxwine
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August 4th, 2013 at 11:53:21 AM permalink
Quote: Face

I don't know what my personal limit is, because I don't know the activity.



Endurance. LOL. I suppose the actual death part needs to be stipulated in the contract.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
rudeboyoi
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August 4th, 2013 at 11:55:31 AM permalink
you will always walk away a winner.
24Bingo
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August 4th, 2013 at 5:23:08 PM permalink
Personally, I'd say p*($5M) would do it up to 1% ($50,000). I think I'd need a solid eight figures to get up to 5%, the billion mark about 15%, and no sell anywhere past 20%.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Wizard
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August 4th, 2013 at 6:40:31 PM permalink
Quote: wroberson

It's just a transfer of energy from one universe to the next. Either the subject moves or everyone but the subject moves.



Sounds like the parallel universe theory.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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August 4th, 2013 at 7:24:16 PM permalink
It's true that money cant BUY happiness for some people but it dose make people happier. I believe they did some studies and Rich people are much happier over all.

I believe people that commit suicide have some serious chemical imbalances in there head that they cant control no matter what happens they cant be happy.

As bleak as it may sound I'm Fairly certain when you die that's it. nothing, blank, no after life no heaven no hell no reincarnation, as if you were never here. Its almost impossible to imagine.If I have to try to imagine it i would think of it like as if you were knocked out or put under or in a coma. I'm sure you have some energy that goes somewhere but I imagine that's the same as feeling nothingness.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
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August 4th, 2013 at 8:25:47 PM permalink
I think self-awareness has to go/be SOMEwhere after the corpus expires. As RA Heinlein has mused, is grass self-aware? No. A shellfish? Probably not. A cat? Almost certainly. Humans? Without a doubt. So what makes up the soul/self-aware entity/person aside from any collection of cells making up a body? You can lose any number of parts, including pieces of brain, without becoming less self-aware, though certain parts of the brain related to memory/recognition/perception can change a personality if lost or damaged. If it exists (ala Descartes, I think therefore I am), is it a parasite or prisoner of the physical, or something else living symbiotically for a time? And how many legends, religions, or popular movies have tried to answer that question? I think it's most likely composed of energy particles with no mass that we haven't discovered yet, can't detect except through indirect means (like maybe there ARE spirits), and we're centuries away from a significant breakthrough in proof. But for now, that's my opinion.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rxwine
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August 4th, 2013 at 9:28:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I think self-awareness has to go/be SOMEwhere after the corpus expires. As RA Heinlein has mused, is grass self-aware?



If you accept Evolution, you'd have to consider that there are versions of humans with more primitive brains like animals. Do you obtain immortality at a certain development point, and others don't? Does every lizard that ever lived, live on? Etc.,
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
pacomartin
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August 4th, 2013 at 11:59:22 PM permalink
Quote: AndyGB

To make it more concrete, let's say the amount of money is $10million. What would the odds have to be for you to take this bet. Let's say that he will make the offer to the person willing to take the highest chance of losing his life. How low would you go? Assume the game is fair and completely randomly determined (using the magic alien technology or etc).



Six to one. I think people do much worse for far less.
Mission146
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August 5th, 2013 at 7:31:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

No one wants to live forever, but everyone wants to live one more day. You are assuming an indifference to life that we just don't have, generally speaking.



I'm not indifferent to life, but to death. If the deal were something like, debilitating illness for ten years and then finally death, we probably don't have a bet for even 10M lacking the probability greatly favoring me.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
P90
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August 5th, 2013 at 7:45:52 AM permalink
Quote: Face

I have to say that I'm shocked. I always look at this site as full of a bunch of elite, baller-status gamblers, yet there's so much trepidation present in this thread.


Then you looked wrong.

This is the site of people who seek the lowest minimums and the highest odds. The most favorable rules, and some even the least heat. The best comps to theo ratio. To take out a marker for $20k and theo $200 over a week while making it look like $2,000.

In other words, this is a gamers site, not a gamblers one.
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mickeycrimm
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August 7th, 2013 at 1:01:44 AM permalink
When players challenged Crazy Mike Caro to a real showdown poker game his response was a head up contest and his conditions were "The loser has to shoot himself in the head." He didn't get any action.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
BedWetterBetter
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August 11th, 2013 at 8:52:06 PM permalink
Reminds of a situation I dealt with recently.

My dog recently needed surgery for a cancerous growth on her and the cost was extremely high.

A little background: I rescued the dog from a shelter, where they euthanize the occupant who has been there the longest, and she was at the top of that list. So I adopted the dog and brought her home, only to find out what an excellent guard dog she turned out to be!

Fast forward 8 years and the dog's life is once again in my hands. However this time, instead of an $18 adoption fee, the cost is over $2000 for the operation.

Not going to lie, that's a good amount of money for what I feel was a simple procedure, and certainly not worth it in my opinion.

I thought it over for several months, all the while, the growth became bigger and the dog became more and more sick over it.

Finally had a talk with a good friend who told me "You can always get more money, it's something that will ALWAYS be around in some shape or form. But where are you going to get a loyal companion, who has been by your side for nearly 10 years, watching out for you and will give you their eternal gratitude?"

Maybe it's just me, but this really rang a bell. So I paid for the surgery and the satisfaction of essentially seeing a family member come back from a life threatening illness to being fully active and healthy again was well worth giving up that money.

Certainly more satisfying than sitting by myself with money that will never "thank me", or "love me" for doing it a favor. In the end, it's only money and there will always be more of that to go around. But you only have one life to live, why risk throwing it away for something as trivial as money?
jet
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August 21st, 2013 at 1:30:33 PM permalink
My Response:

AcesAndEights
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November 2nd, 2013 at 2:17:36 PM permalink
Quote: Face

I have to say that I'm shocked. I always look at this site as full of a bunch of elite, baller-status gamblers, yet there's so much trepidation present in this thread.

Y'all take risks every day, many of which have a much greater than non-zero chance of you dying, and for what? To make it to work, to go pick up a gallon of milk, to have a meal at a new restaurant? But with $10mm on the line... hesitation.

I just find it strange the difference in minds. Y'all will blow, what, five figures a year at the tables? Maybe more? Yet moving up to green cheque action, or, the horror, black cheque action was enough to almost paralyze me with fear. And me, with a chance at actual death, whether it be doing 120mph wheelies weaving through traffic or doing a skeleton run with no training whatsoever, is something I'd gladly not only do, but pay many, many dollars for with no reward other than glory. But you, with $10mm dangling in front of you, hesitate.

Strange stuff. I don't know what my personal limit is, because I don't know the activity. But it's a hell of a lot higher than some 99.9% chance of safety. Make it skill based, specifically in physical ability or motorsports based, and I'd take over 50% chance of death for sure. Hell, make it motorsports based and with only a 20% chance of death, and I'll do it just for the fun of it =D


What's a skeleton run?
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AcesAndEights
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November 2nd, 2013 at 2:21:39 PM permalink
Quote: jet

My Response:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=g5s8w9vT3lO72M&tbnid=H2fLnpt8M059yM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fjoyreactor.com%2Fpost%2F472466&ei=niIVUtXJObHeyQHTg4DQCg&bvm=bv.50952593,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNFUA0Lh0_y1jxQfhn-Aw3QM6rjskQ&ust=1377203228837339


That makes absolutely no sense; programmers are well-paid. If you are a programmer and aren't well-paid you aren't looking hard enough for a good job.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AlanMendelson
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November 2nd, 2013 at 2:55:42 PM permalink
Since I almost died about five years from kidney failure, my answer is this: life is worth more than all the money in the world. I would not make the bet.
Face
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November 2nd, 2013 at 3:25:09 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights


What's a skeleton run?



A 45 second orgasm of adrenaline

The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
AcesAndEights
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November 2nd, 2013 at 4:07:29 PM permalink
Quote: Face

A 45 second orgasm of adrenaline


Right! Got it.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
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