r45
r45
Joined: May 22, 2013
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:16:18 AM permalink
Hi there,

I am off to Vegas with some friends next month and we have decided we are gonna put some money together and make one big bet on 50/50 outcome. We're not talking massive money but probably $1000-$2000 total, the hope being that we would double up on our money. So I was wondering what would be the best bet to make in this situation?

I was thinking of a single-zero roulette wheel, just betting red/black or odd/even..I know it has a reasonably high house edge but given that it is just going to be a one-off bet we are making we do not want something that has high volatility. Does anyone have any suggestions? Would something like baccarat possibly be better?

Thanks!
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:20:40 AM permalink
First off, there is no 50/50 bet in any casino. The house would make no money on such a bet. (True, the house has no advantage on the odds bet in craps, but the catch is that you must first make a Pass Line bet.)

Quote: r45

Would something like baccarat possibly be better?


Yes, if you're going to make one big bet, your best option is probably betting Bank in baccarat.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
r45
r45
Joined: May 22, 2013
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:27:19 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

First off, there is no 50/50 bet in any casino. The house would make no money on such a bet. (True, the house has no advantage on the odds bet in craps, but the catch is that you must first make a Pass Line bet.)


Yes, if you're going to make one big bet, your best option is probably betting Bank in baccarat.



Sorry I didn't mean a 50/50, I meant a 1:1 payout bet.
aluisio
aluisio
Joined: Sep 15, 2010
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:33:20 AM permalink
In this scenario you would probably be better betting the Player in Baccarat.
No bounce, no play.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:34:09 AM permalink
Depending on how strict you are about it being 1:1, your best bet would be either the player (1.24%) or the banker (1.06%, and you're more likely to win than lose, but it's technically 19:20) in baccarat, but that's likely to annoy the regulars. The line bets in craps are only slightly worse - don't pass is technically the better bet, but the difference is so slight (1.41% vs. 1.36%) it's practically nonexistent, especially if you're resolved to keep it up on a 12 (in which case it goes up to 1.40%). I recommend craps, probably pass.

Just about all 1:1 bets have the same standard deviation, which is 1. (It's slightly less if there's a possibility of a push, but if you keep it up through pushes it becomes 1.) Volatility isn't a concern at all.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:37:38 AM permalink
Quote: r45

Sorry I didn't mean a 50/50, I meant a 1:1 payout bet.


If that's the case, then aluisio is correct. Your best option is to bet Player in baccarat (which is slightly better than a Pass Line/Don't Pass bet in craps).
Fighting BS one post at a time!
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:45:03 AM permalink
The answer to your question is baccarat. But, if I was doing this and trying to win $1000, I'd go somewhere with 100x craps odds. Put $12 on don't pass, and wait till 6 or 8 came up, then put $1200 down on odds. I'd be a decent favorite to win, and my house edge is less than it would be in bac. The only minus is that you have to lay $150 more to win the $1000, and you might have to wait a little bit to get the 6/8. Good luck! (I mean variance, gotta use proper forum terminology)
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:51:43 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

if you're going to make one big bet, your best option is probably betting Bank in baccarat.

NO. For a small bet you best option in Baccarat is Banker with its 19:20 payoff, but if you bet large then your "commission" is still to be paid out of your bankroll. So a mega bet in Baccarat is better on Player despite the teensy weensy better chance of Banker Bet being the winner.

Yes, a roulette Red/Black has a 1:1 payout at 5.25 percent house edge but the whole point of making one big doozy of a bet is that the house edge will operate on your bankroll only ONCE. However, once may prove to be enough. GOOD LUCK.

I'd vote for a game that you ENJOY as the first criterion.

I'd also speak to the Pit Boss/Floor Walker FIRST. Tell him you will be making what is for your bankroll a large bet and you would like him to have the Tray Lizard present. He will understand. He will make sure you hand your card over and that he scans it while waiting for your beverages to arrive. One thing is certain. Absolutely certain: No matter if the bet wins or loses, he will note it in the Comp System. Even if you are at a casino where your bet is considered small potatoes, they will atleast treat you well. If you are at a casino that is appropriate for your bankroll, the One Big Bet will likely get you some drinks and some comps even if you lost. Don't be surprized is some lovely young ladies materialize at the table as your bet is about to be made. If you've given the Pit Boss enough of a warning he will use the opportunity to milk it for the casino's benefit. Two happy go lucky guys who show up and put a bundle at risk are great enjoyment for everyone at the table.

Good luck.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 4:03:10 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

NO. For a small bet you best option in Baccarat is Banker with its 19:20 payoff, but if you bet large then your "commission" is still to be paid out of your bankroll. So a mega bet in Baccarat is better on Player despite the teensy weensy better chance of Banker Bet being the winner.


YES. I agree that a Bank bet is only very, very slightly better than a Player bet, but technically speaking, Bank is the better option regardless of bet size. (House Advantage: Bank = 1.06%, Player = 1.24 %)

But this is all a moot point since the OP specified that he wants a 1:1 payout.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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May 22nd, 2013 at 9:40:08 AM permalink
How about $500 Don't Pass then back it with $500 - $1500 odds? If you can get past the Come out 7 or 11, the odds are actually working in your favor.

I recall that the Wizard advised some folks with similar goals for a reality TV show. He think he went with the Passline since it was good for TV, but they crapped out.

In any case, best of luck to you, and keep us posted on the adventure...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

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