Brain's response to consider, "is it rigged?"

With so much conspiracy theory being contemplated lately, here's just a few events I have seen that are out of the ordinary in the realm of things that I watch:

Biased dice?



Biased wheels?



Biased stock market?

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/11/is-this-evidence-the-market-is-rigged.aspx
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/11/vix-cruises-to-six-year-low

Here's a link to Wikipedia on the concept of bias as a frame of reference.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias

Mathematically, bias is a probability that something is not what it was expected to be based on the existing models. Whether those models are even distributions or not, cognitively, we have ideas in our heads about things that should not happen, and yet they do.

I just wanted to start off a thread to get people talking about bias as it relates to our ability to detect real bias, and just to discuss what we all think bias actually is, whether it is real or something that only exists in our mind.

The photo of the roulette wheel is just a couple days old (this weekend) and I asked a dealer at the time if he had ever seen a wheel with no blacks on it at all, and he said "no."

Of course it's not that rare (more rare than a royal flush I think, but not a whole lot more). Of course I am not always looking. But it triggers the brain to say "WTF?" And that's how it relates to this thread. Just like there was a 1 in 15 chance that I would see heavy aces and heavy six faces, and my first count session would match what Harley describes as biased dice!

Quote: Ahigh

The photo of the roulette wheel is just a couple days old (this weekend) and I asked a dealer at the time if he had ever seen a wheel with no blacks on it at all, and he said "no."
!

I have. I've seen 21 in a row, 19 in a row, and others. A
biased roulette wheel doesn't express itself in reds or
blacks anyway. Reds and blacks are staggered on a wheel,
it would be impossible. A biased wheel favors sections,
therefore you look for repeating numbers over a certain
period of time.

i think in the first pic you just wanted to show off your TGI friday's comp again!

Quote: sodawater

i think in the first pic you just wanted to show off your TGI friday's comp again!

I thought it was because they gave him a comp to get rid of him so he'd stop influencing the dice. Was there something else in the pic that was supposed to show bias?

A few repeating numbers, no real emphasis on any particular dozen, no particular octet of the wheel seems favored.... random wheel.
Its just unusual that its an uninterrupted sequence of Reds.
I don't know at what point we should all ooh and ah at the annunciator and declare that BLACK IS DUE or BLACK IS OVERDUE, but its about the same point as we should look at that annunciator and declare that RED IS TRENDING SO THE NEXT ONE WILL BE RED.

I don't know which I would bet... but it would not be with any belief in a biased wheel.

That will sure kill your Martingale.

Quote: sodawater

i think in the first pic you just wanted to show off your TGI friday's comp again!

It's not TGI Friday's it's Guardunio's. But since I don't want to be out of character for you, here's my showing off!

Another comp from last night at Guardunio's:



And let's show this one off AGAIN just in case you forgot!



And the TGI Friday's comps:





YAY! SODAWATER!!! YAY!!!!

And as long as we're bragging on small wins, I BEAT THE WIZARD OUT OF $2!!!!

YAY!!!!!!

Of course *I* was the one comp'ing food on that event!

I don't gamble for income, I do it for fun.

Quote: Ahigh

I BEAT THE WIZARD OUT OF $2!!!!

So I hear from SOOPOO. Congratulations! I look forward to getting the whole story tomorrow on the golf course. If you PM me your mailing address I'd be happy to mail you an uncirculated $2 bill.

Quote: Wizard

So I hear from SOOPOO. Congratulations! I look forward to getting the whole story tomorrow on the golf course. If you PM me your mailing address I'd be happy to mail you an uncirculated $2 bill.

LOL. Yeah, I had to stop at two bucks just to be sure I could say I beat you! LOLz. Thanks for being a good sport!

Brain's response to consider, "is it rigged?"

This is how superstitions are born, the same thing with the dice going off the table or any other silly thing that players do because of something they have seen or has happened to them. Are the dice biased or the wheel, you make up your own mind, it’s not what others say, it’s what you actually see or prove to yourself.

Are there DI’s, we all know that there are random rollers that get lucky when they have the dice, so are the so-called DI’s just getting lucky?

The brain can be tricked into a lot of things when it comes to gambling, that is why the casinos are in business to take your money. We all know that craps is a negative game but we still play it! Every game that is in a casino, are negative games! The brain works in funny ways if you let it. Knowledge is the key to winning at anything in life. Yet most players will never even pick up a book on the game they are playing, to them it’s just a fun way of losing their money, its entertainment for them!

I find the "science" of superstitions interesting. I think it was BF Skinner (upon checking google yes)...who did a very famous experiment with pigeons in which a food dispenser randomly gave out a food pellet to a caged pigeon. The pigeons would associate whatever behavior they were doing at the exact time when the pellet appeared; with the pellet itself. So if they had just lifted their head and a pellet appeared, they would lift their head and expect a pellet. I believe he later repeated these experiments with rats and/or monkeys with the same results. In other words we associate our unrelated behaviors to events they couldn't possible effect. So you wear your favorite shirt to the casino ...then win a $2000 jackpot playing slots and ta da...a superstition is born. Favorite shirt=winning.

indianapublicmedia.org/.../b-f-skinner-created-superstitious-pigeons/

Quote: FleaStiff

I don't know which I would bet... but it would not be with any belief in a biased wheel.

Always follow the trend, you can only lose once.
Bet against the trend and you can lose many
times waiting for it to switch.

I think that series of roulette numbers is what made Wesley Snipes broke. And for those who don't get that reference. Here is a clip from Passenger 57.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTDeOPFr9e4

The biggest motivation behind superstition building is "confirmation bias". Someone believes the dice 7-out right after stick change. When it actually happens it confirms their theory. When it doesn't its quickly forgotten.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000153958&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

Eight straight days up on the DOW. Nothing on the sell side and telling us the "trend in in tact."

13 days in a row is the record back in 1987.

People wondering, though, "is the market rigged?" This data is old, but at least an indicator about how rare these streaks in the market are.

http://www.automationinformation.com/DJIA/dow_jones_longest_streak_of_daily_increases.htm

I'm sure there are martingale style investment algorithms and people who are getting owned right now...

No worries here. I don't have to check the market news at all. Bernie Madoff handles all my investments.

Luckily he likes me and handles my trust funds. Can not go wrong with the best, that's for sure.

"With the S&P flirting with a record and the Dow Jones Industrial Average looking to extend its nine-day winning streak, its longest since 1996, investors are taking an interest in the numbers and what, if anything, they mean."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/dow-winning-streak-captivates-traders-tests-statisticians-154210115.html

I think this would be more historically significant if the gains were meaningful. In this 9 day run up (looking to get to 10 today) the market has only gone up like 3-4%, if that. We are crawling up day by day. We aren't seeing any 2% daily gains or stuff like that to let us know this is a full fledged rally. I do like the returns I have gotten in my 401K over the past few years, but basically everyone is now right where they were 6 years ago. That isn't anything to celebrate as we should be up like 60% over that time.

GEE only !0% a year over the last 6 . You can get 12 with Bernie !

Actually, the fact that the last 6 years has been flat lends credibility to the "is it rigged?" question.

In general, the "house" in the stock market could be thought of as the professional "investors" who are using the algorithms to squeeze out the profits from mom and pop who are just still buying and holding.

The significance of this many days in a row up has to do with statistical relevence (see the OP) in that it doesn't really happen all that often.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQSNhk5ICTI

And how the brain responds to such events. Not that the events themselves actually mean anything at all.

"OH MY GOD WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?!"

But the stock market going up one day to the next isn't as random as say the spin of a roulette wheel. This has kind of been a perfect storm for a long winning streak. Slow steady gains. When you have a large gain in one day in the market, you tend to see some sell off or profit taking the next day. In this 9, coming on 10 day rally hasn't really had a large enough gain for significant profit taking except maybe for one day (I want to say last Thursday) and in that following day, yes the Dow was up, but the S&P, Nasdaq, Russel 2K and Wilshire 5000 were all down.