First presidential debate
October 5th, 2012 at 1:25:13 AM
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Quote: s2dbakerThe only people tying Obama's performance to the suckitude of Jim Lehrer are the conservatards. I thought Obama did just fine.
Just wanted to let you know your tears taste awesome
October 5th, 2012 at 4:36:06 AM
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I watched the debate and I'm not sure how any case can be made that the President *won*- with possibly a small number saying he *tied*. It seemed clear that by any objective level Romney wiped the floor with him and presented himself above the attack ads that have attempted to define him.
The two items that seem to be the elephants in the room with regard to the race in general, when people already conclude that the race is over in favor of the President are:
1. Assumption that voter turnout for the President will be equal or exceed that in 2008: I don't understand how this could happen
2. When looking how people voted in 2008, how many McCain voters are going to switch to Obama? How many Obama voters are going to switch to Romney? For the first group, I'd argue very few. For the latter group, I'd argue quite a few- but I'm not sure to what magnitude.
It's like when people try and say the economy is fine, when you know in your bones that it's not fine.
The two items that seem to be the elephants in the room with regard to the race in general, when people already conclude that the race is over in favor of the President are:
1. Assumption that voter turnout for the President will be equal or exceed that in 2008: I don't understand how this could happen
2. When looking how people voted in 2008, how many McCain voters are going to switch to Obama? How many Obama voters are going to switch to Romney? For the first group, I'd argue very few. For the latter group, I'd argue quite a few- but I'm not sure to what magnitude.
It's like when people try and say the economy is fine, when you know in your bones that it's not fine.
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
October 5th, 2012 at 6:06:41 AM
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Quote: kewljIMO, an event that could be much more of a trouble spot for the president could be the job numbers on Friday.
"The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years.
The Labor Department says employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work.
The revisions show employers added 146,000 jobs per month from July through September, up from 67,000 in the previous three months."
here
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
October 5th, 2012 at 6:22:30 AM
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What they wont tell you is that 7.8 percent only includes those receiving unemployment compensation. Those who have been on compensation and are still unemployed but are no longer eligible for benefits are not in that figure or those who are want full time and have settled for part time jobs. The true unemployement rate for this great nation is 14.7%.
"U-6" unemployment rate
edit: in theory, you could create no jobs, but have new monthly filings be less than 24 months ago (those dropping off the unemployment rolls) and your unemployment rate would still go down, even though the total number of unemployed goes up. Crazy, and illogical, I know, but that's the way the Govt reports things.
"U-6" unemployment rate
edit: in theory, you could create no jobs, but have new monthly filings be less than 24 months ago (those dropping off the unemployment rolls) and your unemployment rate would still go down, even though the total number of unemployed goes up. Crazy, and illogical, I know, but that's the way the Govt reports things.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
October 5th, 2012 at 6:40:37 AM
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Who is "They"? Apparently "They" told someone because you posted it here. I think the larger point being made is that the economy is heading in the right direction despite what Mitt Romney says.Quote: NickyDimWhat they wont tell you is that 7.8 percent only includes those receiving unemployment compensation.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
October 5th, 2012 at 6:49:51 AM
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"They" is the United States Federal Govt who uses the U-3 chart to report 'official' unemployment. There are 6 charts the US keeps on this subject, U-1 thru U-6, but the Feds don't like using the U-6 because it paints a worse picture, yet it's the most accurate when actually measuring the number of real people affected by unemployment.
Click the link I provided next time before you assume I just pulled the figure out of my butt, please.
Click the link I provided next time before you assume I just pulled the figure out of my butt, please.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
October 5th, 2012 at 6:53:57 AM
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Quote: s2dbakerWho is "They"? Apparently "They" told someone because you posted it here. I think the larger point being made is that the economy is heading in the right direction despite what Mitt Romney says.
Considering the ditch Obama has put us in that is nothing to brag about. Under Bush and Clinton unemployment averaged <6%. Now the Obamamaniacs claim 7.8% is something to write home about?
Kind of like saying losing $500 at the craps table is good because you usually lose $1000!
BTW: If the economy is headed in the right direction, how come labor force participation is at record lows while Food Stamp use is at a record high?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 5th, 2012 at 6:57:54 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanBTW: If the economy is headed in the right direction, how come labor force participation is at record lows while Food Stamp use is at a record high?
Want Irony?
We aren't supposed to feed wild animals, according to the dept of agriculture, because they will become dependent on handouts.
yet this same dept under current administration is handing out more social help via food stamps than ever before
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
October 5th, 2012 at 7:25:22 AM
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Quote: WizardWow, the odds on Pinnacle have changed quite a bit since the debate. As I recall, Obama was running at about -450 before the debate. Here are the odds right now:
Obama: -293
Romney: +259
I admit Romney won, but in my opinion it wasn't he the wipe-out everybody is making it look like. My two cents is that the market is overreacting, and this is a good time to buy Obama.
I hope everyone took my advice yesterday to buy Obama at a cheap price. This morning he is at -357; I assume because of the drop in unemployment. I got in a bet at -293 yesterday (yes!).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 5th, 2012 at 7:26:35 AM
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I guess this post is about the election in general, rather than about the debate, but that's the way the recent posts have seemed. I don't usually get involved in political discussions, but I am reminded of two that I joined in the past four years.
In late 2009, I was on a cruise ship. My wife and I shared a dinner table with four people we had not met before, and one night Obama's first-year performance was a topic. I offered the comment that I had the feeling that many of his supporters in 2008 may have developed the opinion that the candidate and position that they had been excited about in casting their vote were quite different from what they had seen over the next year from their president. One of our table mates was quite enthusiastic in his agreement. He had voted for Obama and had apparently been a strong supporter, but a year later he felt as if he had been conned. I don't know how many 2008 supporters of the president might feel that way as we approach this November.
Some time in early 2011 (I think), I was at a crap table in Biloxi where the game was casual and the conversation drifted to a variety of non-gaming topics. The early candidates for election were discussed for a while. My comment then was that I wasn't sure I had ever seen a more defeatable incumbant president, but it looked to me as if the Republicans weren't going to be able to come up with a viable candidate. I related that to my brother early this week (before the debate), and he said it seems that that is the way it worked out.
We now must choose between two candidates, neither of which seems likely to do a very good job in the position, but either of which could probably muddle through doing a degree of additional harm similar to what we have seen in the past four years.
In late 2009, I was on a cruise ship. My wife and I shared a dinner table with four people we had not met before, and one night Obama's first-year performance was a topic. I offered the comment that I had the feeling that many of his supporters in 2008 may have developed the opinion that the candidate and position that they had been excited about in casting their vote were quite different from what they had seen over the next year from their president. One of our table mates was quite enthusiastic in his agreement. He had voted for Obama and had apparently been a strong supporter, but a year later he felt as if he had been conned. I don't know how many 2008 supporters of the president might feel that way as we approach this November.
Some time in early 2011 (I think), I was at a crap table in Biloxi where the game was casual and the conversation drifted to a variety of non-gaming topics. The early candidates for election were discussed for a while. My comment then was that I wasn't sure I had ever seen a more defeatable incumbant president, but it looked to me as if the Republicans weren't going to be able to come up with a viable candidate. I related that to my brother early this week (before the debate), and he said it seems that that is the way it worked out.
We now must choose between two candidates, neither of which seems likely to do a very good job in the position, but either of which could probably muddle through doing a degree of additional harm similar to what we have seen in the past four years.
October 5th, 2012 at 7:46:25 AM
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The last four? The last twelve, I would say.
It is sort of funny that the republicans are struggling so desperately.
They've really painted themselves into a corner with their antiquated social values,
And then there's willard, spawn of Kolob,
and his magical mystery plan for the economy, along with his secret tax papers
and his Caribbean assets shell game...just can't quite come across as a genuine article.
Too funny.
I guess it s going to be back to disenfranchisement again.
HOPE
It is sort of funny that the republicans are struggling so desperately.
They've really painted themselves into a corner with their antiquated social values,
And then there's willard, spawn of Kolob,
and his magical mystery plan for the economy, along with his secret tax papers
and his Caribbean assets shell game...just can't quite come across as a genuine article.
Too funny.
I guess it s going to be back to disenfranchisement again.
HOPE
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
October 5th, 2012 at 7:53:03 AM
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Quote: NickyDimThe true unemployement rate for this great nation is 14.7%.
..
So, if Mitt Romney becomes President and uses the same metric, even if unemployment goes down, I can point out it is actually 13% or whatever?
FINE, I'm going with that.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
October 5th, 2012 at 7:58:24 AM
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Quote: WongBoThe last four? The last twelve, I would say.
It is sort of funny that the republicans are struggling so desperately.
They've really painted themselves into a corner with their antiquated social values,
And then there's willard, spawn of Kolob,
and his magical mystery plan for the economy, along with his secret tax papers
and his Caribbean assets shell game...just can't quite come across as a genuine article.
Too funny.
I guess it s going to be back to disenfranchisement again.
HOPE
October 2008, Unemployment at 6.5% and Obama says "this is the worst economy in 50 years!"
October 2012, Unemployment at 7.% and we are supposed to believe we have a good jobs situation?
HOPE?
As to "antiquated social values...." Yeah, marrige is one man and one woman; you should not let delivered babaies die on the delivery table, record food stamp use is not a good thing, sorry to burden you with all of that.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 5th, 2012 at 8:11:16 AM
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"Don't blame me. I voted for Kodos." Homer Simpson
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 5th, 2012 at 8:24:31 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanAs to "antiquated social values...." Yeah, marrige is one man and one woman; you should not let delivered babaies die on the delivery table, record food stamp use is not a good thing, sorry to burden you with all of that.
Only one of those things is an antiquated social value...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 5th, 2012 at 8:26:49 AM
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Quote: thecesspitOnly one of those things is an antiquated social value...
Which one? Obama and Democrats think they are all antiquated and have either voted against them or openly support them.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 5th, 2012 at 8:35:28 AM
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Well one of the other's is an ethical position and the other one is a economic marker, so I'll let you guess which one is a social value.
But let me be clear, there's nothing wrong with you (or a Republican candidate, or anyone else) making a statement that you believe in these social, ethical and economic values. I much prefer a statement FOR something and showing a belief IN something that you can mark rather than a statement against the "otherside". I may not share them, but that's another story. I don't care if Obama has or has not supported these things or otherwise... I can't vote for him, and when I do vote, I vote FOR a set of policies, not to stop "the other guy".
(The economic marker is the most interesting one, by the way, as it's the -how- you plan to reduce that number that's a difference, and the level of importance you put in it as well. Making the case and plan for improving the economy, and the US's overall vision of it's economy is what should be debated, but sadly isn't.. which will lead to four more years of compromise, pork barrels and general miasma of decline).
But let me be clear, there's nothing wrong with you (or a Republican candidate, or anyone else) making a statement that you believe in these social, ethical and economic values. I much prefer a statement FOR something and showing a belief IN something that you can mark rather than a statement against the "otherside". I may not share them, but that's another story. I don't care if Obama has or has not supported these things or otherwise... I can't vote for him, and when I do vote, I vote FOR a set of policies, not to stop "the other guy".
(The economic marker is the most interesting one, by the way, as it's the -how- you plan to reduce that number that's a difference, and the level of importance you put in it as well. Making the case and plan for improving the economy, and the US's overall vision of it's economy is what should be debated, but sadly isn't.. which will lead to four more years of compromise, pork barrels and general miasma of decline).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 5th, 2012 at 8:54:50 AM
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Betting on Obama is a bad idea. The debates will have a very strong effect on this election. The polls will likely soon show Romney winning in most of the swing states, despite polling being very slanted towards the president. Most people believe that Romney is the best man to improve the economy, and for some very obvious reasons. This means that a majority of the undecided will vote for him. Many on the left are now feeling disillusioned and bewildered by the president's debate performance, and will choose to stay home.
Regarding the jobs report. Nobody believes it. It's clearly some creative accounting, and the result of many people simply falling out of the system.
At this point, I fully expect Romney to win with 320 electoral votes. I also would not be surprised to see riots in Chicago following the election.
Regarding the jobs report. Nobody believes it. It's clearly some creative accounting, and the result of many people simply falling out of the system.
At this point, I fully expect Romney to win with 320 electoral votes. I also would not be surprised to see riots in Chicago following the election.
October 5th, 2012 at 8:55:52 AM
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Gary Johnson won the debate without even being there.
October 5th, 2012 at 8:59:42 AM
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Quote: KeyserBetting on Obama is a bad idea. The debates will have a very strong effect on this election. The polls will likely soon show Romney winning in most of the swing states, despite polling being very slanted towards the president. Most people believe that Romney is the best man to improve the economy, and for some very obvious reasons. This means that a majority of the undecided will vote for him. Many on the left are now feeling disillusioned and bewildered by the president's debate performance, and will choose to stay home.
Regarding the jobs report. Nobody believes it. It's clearly some creative accounting, and the result of many people simply falling out of the system.
At this point, I fully expect Romney to win with 320 electoral votes. I also would not be surprised to see riots in Chicago following the election.
How much would you be willing to bet on those last two points?
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
October 5th, 2012 at 9:16:23 AM
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I'll lay 2:1, $50 to win $25 with Keyser that Romney DOES NOT hit at least 320 electoral votes.
I'm going to go ahead and PM you my address now, I'll accept payment via Personal Check or Money Order.
I'm going to go ahead and PM you my address now, I'll accept payment via Personal Check or Money Order.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 5th, 2012 at 9:36:03 AM
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Deleted and thanks!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 5th, 2012 at 9:40:18 AM
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Quote: KeyserAt this point, I fully expect Romney to win with 320 electoral votes. I also would not be surprised to see riots in Chicago following the election.
You win a trip to Romney Island.
October 5th, 2012 at 10:52:25 AM
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I didn't dispute your numbers, super-genius. I challenged your consiracy theory which you helpfully debunked by saying that you got your numbers from the very "they" that you say are hiding them.Quote: NickyDim"They" is the United States Federal Govt who uses the U-3 chart to report 'official' unemployment. There are 6 charts the US keeps on this subject, U-1 thru U-6, but the Feds don't like using the U-6 because it paints a worse picture, yet it's the most accurate when actually measuring the number of real people affected by unemployment.
Click the link I provided next time before you assume I just pulled the figure out of my butt, please.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
October 5th, 2012 at 10:59:41 AM
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I guess the culprit is the media using the U-3 chart which they most likely regurgitate from the White House press secretary, so the masses read 7.8% and figure it's got to be the truth, but a little investigative reporting uncovers much more. It's there, but CBS doesn't dig deeper and continues to show the Prez in the best possible light.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
October 5th, 2012 at 11:11:42 AM
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Is Obama really qualified to be president? Is he qualified to oversee the world's largest economy?
I feel that most of the people that voted for him the first time simply voted based on their emotions, rather than on the facts. I suspect that very few of them took the time to actually check the stats to see whether or not he was qualified for the job.
In hindsight, I believe that many people believe that even Sara Palin was more qualified for the job.
I feel that most of the people that voted for him the first time simply voted based on their emotions, rather than on the facts. I suspect that very few of them took the time to actually check the stats to see whether or not he was qualified for the job.
In hindsight, I believe that many people believe that even Sara Palin was more qualified for the job.
October 5th, 2012 at 11:12:23 AM
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Quote: NickyDimI guess the culprit is the media using the U-3 chart which they most likely regurgitate from the White House press secretary, so the masses read 7.8% and figure it's got to be the truth, but a little investigative reporting uncovers much more. It's there, but CBS doesn't dig deeper and continues to show the Prez in the best possible light.
CBS is probably too busy trying to figure out what kind of fake story to run on Romney, I can hear it in the newsroom now, "and this time make sure you don't use a modern font!"
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 5th, 2012 at 11:28:23 AM
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Quote: KeyserIs Obama really qualified to be president? Is he qualified to oversee the world's largest economy?
I feel that most of the people that voted for him the first time simply voted based on their emotions, rather than on the facts. I suspect that very few of them took the time to actually check the stats to see whether or not he was qualified for the job.
In hindsight, I believe that many people believe that even Sara Palin was more qualified for the job.
People vote with emotions, not logic. At least to what I've heard recently.
Quote: NickyDimI guess the culprit is the media using the U-3 chart which they most likely regurgitate from the White House press secretary, so the masses read 7.8% and figure it's got to be the truth, but a little investigative reporting uncovers much more. It's there, but CBS doesn't dig deeper and continues to show the Prez in the best possible light.
If U3 unemployment has been used as the metric recently... well, it makes sense to keep using it as the marker. It's hard to claim "well it's dropped to 7.8%, so lets talk about the 16.3%" if you didn't use U6 beforehand... that's selecting the metric you prefer post-hoc.
Now, what may be interesting is if U6 is increasing while U3 is decreasing (which would suggest people permanently leaving the job market). U3, from what you've said is those actively claiming unemployment benefit, so hence (in theory) actively seeking work.
These can be found here :
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
| Year | U3 | U6 |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 2004 | 5.4 | 9.4 |
| Sept 2006 | 4.7 | 8.3 |
| Sept 2008 | 6.1 | 11.0 |
| Sept 2010 | 9.6 | 17.1 |
| Sept 2012 | 7.8 | 14.5 |
In short Bush had an increase in both metrics of Unemployment over his 4 year term. So did Obama. Over a two year view, Bush's numbers increased, while Obama's decreased. In summary : I can delve in and get all sorts of stories from these numbers... I'll let you decide which narrative you want.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 6th, 2012 at 10:01:49 AM
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. - Rasmussen
Really this isn't a surprise to me. Romney landed so many zingers. These knockout blows made President Obama look worse than President Carter.
Really this isn't a surprise to me. Romney landed so many zingers. These knockout blows made President Obama look worse than President Carter.
October 6th, 2012 at 10:24:47 AM
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Quote: KeyserAt this point, I fully expect Romney to win with 320 electoral votes. I also would not be surprised to see riots in Chicago following the election.
I predict Obama to make it to 320, and some foul moods on Wall Street.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 6th, 2012 at 10:30:05 AM
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I predict Romney, and riots in Chicago. The next several weeks should be exciting.
October 6th, 2012 at 5:38:52 PM
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Quote: WizardI predict Obama to make it to 320, and some foul moods on Wall Street.
Wall Street was a major source of Obama donations. People in NYC love him in general.
The foul mood will be with people who cannot find jobs in the Obama economy. There are many.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 6th, 2012 at 5:53:26 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanThe foul mood will be with people who cannot find jobs in the Obama economy. There are many.
They should be in a foul mood if Romney wins. Unemployment has steadily dropped from a high of 10% in Oct 2009 under Obama.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 6th, 2012 at 5:59:34 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 6th, 2012 at 6:01:30 PM
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Quote: WizardThey should be in a foul mood if Romney wins. Unemployment has steadily dropped from a high of 10% in Oct 2009 under Obama.
No idea why anyone would say that.
Obama has had the highest sustained unemployment of any POTUS post-WWII. Labor force participation is lowest since the 1970s, a time before many women started working. The actual rate is somewhere between 10-14%. (See U-6)
Over 50% of the months of >8% unemployment have been under Obama.
And to anyone who wants to blame Bush, please remember under Reagan we had similr unemployment in 1981-82, but 7% GDP growth by 1984.
Obama has been horrible for the economy.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 6th, 2012 at 6:02:11 PM
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Quote: WizardThey should be in a foul mood if Romney wins. Unemployment has steadily dropped from a high of 10% in Oct 2009 under Obama.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
October 6th, 2012 at 6:25:38 PM
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Right now I fully expect Romney to also take Wisconsin.
The recent unemployment numbers are not real. Nobody believe them to be relevant.
The recent unemployment numbers are not real. Nobody believe them to be relevant.
October 6th, 2012 at 6:34:26 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesThe unemployment rate only reflects people out of work receiving benefits compared to those who are working. It doesn't count people who run out of benefits and/or stop looking like I did years ago. The real rate is way over 10%.
In which case, compare the U6 numbers over time. There's a balance to compare those who are looking, those who could work, but don't, those who would work, but are invisible to the claims and so on. The measure should be total potential labour force (will work if offered a job of some type, that they are able to do, or do currently work) compared to that actually working. Then you have to consider under utilization... working but only part time.
(Note, I'm not claiming that Obama is good or bad for this... ).
The U3 number is a reasonable gauge in terms of looking at change, rather than absolutes. It probably should be taken in conjunction with the U6 number if you want to to really dive into the nuances. Both on their own can hide phenomena (giving up or rentering, under utilization, long term, medium term and transitory numbers).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 6th, 2012 at 6:35:13 PM
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Quote: KeyserRight now I fully expect Romney to also take Wisconsin.
The recent unemployment numbers are not real. Nobody believe them to be relevant.
I would expect that if the number was 8.5% it would have been much more relevant to the right, while at 7.8% it's more relevant to the left :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 6th, 2012 at 6:35:58 PM
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Quote: KeyserRight now I fully expect Romney to also take Wisconsin.
The recent unemployment numbers are not real. Nobody believe them to be relevant.
What I find interesting is how many people agree with me on this. Just weeks ago the BLS "revised" the last few years to show something like 195,000 more jobs were recently created than first reported. Now the unemployment rate goes down 0.3% with just 114,000 jobs created.
I questioned it the minute I saw it. We are told there must be 100,000-150,000 jobs created per month to keep pace with population growth. A 0.3% decline with 114K was just too much of a stretch. But I expected to just see, "there go the Obaba-haters again." Instead I see CNBC questioning it. Remember, same parent as BS-NBC. Watercooler talk shows similar results.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 6th, 2012 at 6:50:14 PM
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For comparison : Canada created 52,000 jobs last month. It's unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 7.4%, a 7 month high.Canada is not half the size of the US, created half the jobs that the US did, but still is seeing rising unemployment.
No doubt there is a different way of calculating these numbers. But ultimately, it looks to me that the US U3 number has dropped purely by people running out of benefits. Which is all well and good for your unemployment budgets...
No doubt there is a different way of calculating these numbers. But ultimately, it looks to me that the US U3 number has dropped purely by people running out of benefits. Which is all well and good for your unemployment budgets...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 6th, 2012 at 7:01:08 PM
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The number of jobs created, they say, didn't really even keep up with the population growth. It's basically just a bogus stat. I feel this stat will only serve to make people even angrier with Obama. This is just another reason as to why Romney's going to win with 320 electoral votes.
So far my predictions have been quite accurate. The polls are rapidly changing.
So far my predictions have been quite accurate. The polls are rapidly changing.
October 6th, 2012 at 9:00:51 PM
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Mr. Keyser,
I share your optimism .
WASHOO2
I share your optimism .
WASHOO2
October 7th, 2012 at 12:15:12 AM
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Quote: KeyserThe number of jobs created, they say, didn't really even keep up with the population growth. It's basically just a bogus stat. I feel this stat will only serve to make people even angrier with Obama. This is just another reason as to why Romney's going to win with 320 electoral votes.
So far my predictions have been quite accurate. The polls are rapidly changing.
So you'll be taking the money offered else where in this thread?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 7th, 2012 at 2:11:14 AM
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It is funny how when the unemployment rate stays the same or goes up the right delights in quoting it, but when it goes down then it is just accounting tricks.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 7th, 2012 at 5:16:35 AM
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Quote: WizardIt is funny how when the unemployment rate stays the same or goes up the right delights in quoting it, but when it goes down then it is just accounting tricks.
I don't like how the right is handling this but I also don't believe the left is any more honest in their handling of these numbers each month than the right. The numbers favor the left this month as reported so the other side is taking shots at it. If the numbers favored the left, you can bet your bottom dollar that they would try to take shots at them, too.
I wish that politicians could skip the "dirty tricks"-type allegations (accounting tricks) and stick with the facts. There is still plenty of room to show that the economy is growing (on the left) and that it is not growing enough (on the right).
I don't think anyone "cooked the books" on these numbers; they figured them out the same way they always do. The drop in unemployment @ 3/10ths of a percent does not match up with the job growth reported. Since they come from two different sources, they won't always match up.
There is enough room to drive a truck between the two positions right there without insinuating anything dirty!
October 7th, 2012 at 5:37:29 AM
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I've spent a good deal of time laughing at the reasons the left is presenting for the President's poor performance at the debate last week; there was even one commentator that I heard saying that the President won.
This is another one of those things I wish politicians would just address--and keep their folks on target in addressing--with a much simpler explanation like "Hey, it wasn't my best day ever but we are not voting on what kind of a day I have in a debate; we are voting on who will do the best job moving this nation forward"...and go on from there...
(I do believe that if it swings the other way next time, we'll here excuses, too.)
This is another one of those things I wish politicians would just address--and keep their folks on target in addressing--with a much simpler explanation like "Hey, it wasn't my best day ever but we are not voting on what kind of a day I have in a debate; we are voting on who will do the best job moving this nation forward"...and go on from there...
(I do believe that if it swings the other way next time, we'll here excuses, too.)
October 7th, 2012 at 7:27:06 AM
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Since in all likelihood Gracie Lynn will be doing my NFL picks in the future, I will have time to coach Obama.
Expect a different result this time !
Expect a different result this time !
October 7th, 2012 at 8:22:14 AM
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I find it rather pitiful that people expect the POTUS to "fix" their lives, find their jobs, invest their money, etc. Many Obama supporters fit this group. It's like the spoiled adult/child that still needs mommy and daddy to support them.
I'm smart enough to manage my own life, and would prefer government leave me alone.
Opportunity exists everyday. If you can't find it, and take advantage of it, you have yourself to blame. I will never blame government for my failures, and government gets no credit when I succeed.
I'm smart enough to manage my own life, and would prefer government leave me alone.
Opportunity exists everyday. If you can't find it, and take advantage of it, you have yourself to blame. I will never blame government for my failures, and government gets no credit when I succeed.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
October 7th, 2012 at 8:24:44 AM
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Good to know that were you to lose your job and home
You wouldn't be expecting the government to see to it that you don't die of starvation on the street.
You can always just rob houses and kill people for pocket change to get by.
Food stamps are for pussies.
;)
You wouldn't be expecting the government to see to it that you don't die of starvation on the street.
You can always just rob houses and kill people for pocket change to get by.
Food stamps are for pussies.
;)
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
