EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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September 13th, 2012 at 6:14:39 PM permalink
There will always be table games because there
will always be a demand for them. Roulette will
stay because of its high HE. Craps will stay because
it has so many fans, the same for bac. As far as
the other games, who knows. But it won't happen
overnight or in the next 20 years.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Mission146
Mission146
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September 13th, 2012 at 6:21:28 PM permalink
Paradigm,

Thank you for your answer which makes absolute sense, especially considering that California has been a big source of Vegas traffic historically.

I have to admit that I am confused by people not wanting to learn new games. If it did not require extensive travel, I would try every game there is at least once, mainly to see what the hook is!!! I suppose Baccarat is one exception, I don't think I will ever sit down at a Baccarat Table as long as I live, the behavior of the players is too strange and unpredictable. I've watched on the rare opportunities I've had in which I've been in a casino with the game, but never played.

I agree with your opinion of 3CP. You've got that one right, too, people just play a hand if it, "Looks good," increases the HE, but it's simple and nobody else at the table really cares what they do. The same applies for Roulette, of course.
Vultures can't be choosers.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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September 13th, 2012 at 6:45:52 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Presenting graphics like I did in my article always leads to unanswered questions. There is a lot to do with the data, so have at it. However, traditional games that require extended periods to learn or have complex strategies are having challenges.



One of the metrics I look at is the change in revenue on the Vegas Strip since the peak period just before the recession. Clearly Baccarat is the big Kahuna in gaming. While the foreign venues have now sucked out most of the seasoned Asian player, it is clear that Vegas is attracting more of them than in the past. Mini-baccarat is such a bust, that it is also clear that the mathematics of the low house edge has nothing to do with the popularity of the game. If so, then MB would be improving as well.

The "other table games" are clearly losing ground more than roulette and craps, so the OP's basic assumption seems correct.

But the big bust has been blackjack. I have noted in the past, that blackjack started going downhill far before any other table game or slot machines. I theorized that since it is the most commonly played table game, that players were more nervous about their money, and were drifting toward slot machines. People who play roulette and craps are often more old school and devoted to their game. Advantage Players probably aren't statistically significant in revenue calculation.

BACCARAT |39.6%
ROULETTE |-5.7%
CRAPS |-10.5%
OTHER TABLE GAMES|-16.6%
TWENTY-ONE|-31.1%
MINI-BACCARAT|-48.2%
Total TABLE GAMES|-4.5%

Only $1 in $6 to $7 of revenue earned in table games falls into the category of OTHER TABLE GAMES.
Baccarat (MIDI or REGULAR) is up to 42% of all table game revenue.

Slots have dropped -16.8% over the same time period (about the same as OTHER TABLE GAMES).
Mission146
Mission146
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September 13th, 2012 at 7:16:15 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

If we look at annual statistics at the peak of the market vs today (for just Vegas strip) we see that full size Baccarat is the only table game to increase. The traditional games are all down in revenue. Statistics show revenue in the past 12 months.

11/01/06 TO 10/31/07
TWENTY-ONE |$1,078,626 |
CRAPS |$318,855 |
ROULETTE |$303,385 |
BACCARAT |$970,726 |
MINI-BACCARAT |$125,584|
Other TABLE GAMES |$537,553.00)
Total TABLE GAMES $3,334,729

08/01/11 TO 07/31/12
TWENTY-ONE | $743,515|
CRAPS |$285,336 |
ROULETTE | $286,158|
BACCARAT | $1,355,607 |
MINI-BACCARAT | $65,109|

Other TABLE GAMES |$448,157.00|
Total TABLE GAMES $3,183,882

While table games as a whole (including baccarat) are down $150M, Baccarat is up $385M.

In the same period slots dropeed from $3.51 billion down $2.92 billion (down almost $600M).



Blackjack -31.1%
Craps -10.5%
Roulette -5.7%
Baccarat +39.6%
Mini-Baccarat -48.2%
Other -16.6%
TOTAL -4.5%

Slots: -16.8%

Meaning:

BJ

From 2006-2007 (just using the bare eyeball) Blackjack has dropped about 12.8% of its Tables as BJ Revenues have fallen 31.1%. In order for Blackjack revenues to remain in line with number of Tables, they would have had to close 2.49x more Tables than they actually did. Further, if BJ had closed Tables in a perfectly-aligned way with the decline in revenue, they would have about 3,200 Tables currently as opposed to 4,100.

Basically, Blackjack is even worse off than the drops in # of Tables suggest. Much worse off.

Craps

From 2006-2007 Craps has dropped about 6% of its Tables compared to a 10.5% loss in revenue. Craps should theoretically have closed 1.75x more Tables in accordance with the revenue decline to be perfectly-aligned, but I suspect the discrepancy may be due to casinos having only one Craps Table (and declining Craps revenue) and deciding not to close their sole Craps Table which was also their sole Craps Table in 2006-2007. In effect, though, you would have about 374 Craps Tables as opposed to 390.

Compared to BJ, Slots, Mini-Bacc and OTHER, Craps is actually holding up fairly well. Further, when we are talking about 16 (more) theoretical Tables less than actual Tables, I personally believe that supports my, "Casinos with one Table," theory.

Roulette

Roulette has lost less than any of them at -5.7% compared to about 4% less Tables. Sane theory as Craps. Casinos with one Roulette Table, kept it open.

Baccarat

Baccarat is kicking ass at 39.6% positive revenue. In fact, if we were to disclude Baccarat from the TOTAL:

[(3,183,882 - $1,355,607) / ($3,334,729 -970726)]-1 = x

[1828275/2364003] - 1 = x

.773 - 1 = -22.7%

We see that Tables lose 22.7% of revenue without Baccarat as opposed to a loss of 4.5% given the Baccarat gains. IOW, Baccarat is carrying these places!!!

Interestingly, the increase in Baccarat Tables has only been 34%, however, this could be due to casinos who previously did not have Baccarat and simply added the game to their repetoire. Theoretically, for what it's worth, they should have added about 14% more Tables over that time period, which would be about 35 more Tables than current.

Mini-Baccarat and Others

Mini-Baccarat has failed so epically in recent years as to not merit discussion. Furthermore, the article does not have a seperate graph for Mini-Bacc, whereas, this data counts seperately for the game, so that really screws up any comparison.

ARTICLE

Before I continue, would Mini-Bacc have fallen under traditional Table games or Proprietary Table Games in the article? It's pretty relevant in order for me to be able to discuss, "Other Table Games," v. "Proprietary Table Games."

CONCLUSION

I think the article may be right that BJ as we know it could certainly be at-risk, at least in Nevada. This is for a number of reasons:

1.) I think they are losing $20 to save $1 for all the casinos that have instituted bad BJ Rules for the player. For every AP out there, let's face it, there are probably at least ten hopefuls with a decent bankroll that think they can be BJ AP's. I would tend to believe such hopefuls lose more money than the casual player in their efforts, because even they know that variance creates losses, even when playing at an advantage. They think they are playing at an advantage, but really, they're just chasing losses...

2.) Blackjack still leads all games with exception to Baccarat and Slots. I'm almost inclined to say that the availability of Table Games, in general, in the United States has contributed to the decline in revenue, except, it seems especially disproportionate for Blackjack compared to other games. This could be attributed to the Card Rooms in California, a state from which Nevada has traditionally gotten much of its revenue.

3.) Video Blackjack, as has been stated prior to this post.

4.) I maintain that Craps is basically doing fine. It has lost less revenue than slot machines, I just happen to think that it is a game with a very, "Cult-like," following, just the Cult happens to be large. Interestingly, Roulette has overtaken craps slightly in overall revenue, but again, I think that's one game that you either play or do not play...and as has been stated...Roulette is much easier.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 13th, 2012 at 7:17:56 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin



BACCARAT |39.6%
ROULETTE |-5.7%
CRAPS |-10.5%
OTHER TABLE GAMES|-16.6%
TWENTY-ONE|-31.1%
MINI-BACCARAT|-48.2%
Total TABLE GAMES|-4.5%



I totally did not steal those percentages, I think we were posting at the same time.
Vultures can't be choosers.
teliot
teliot
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September 13th, 2012 at 7:30:55 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Slots have dropped -16.8% over the same time period (about the same as OTHER TABLE GAMES).

A fair comparison to tables relative to my specific approach would be to count the number of physical slot machines. I get the following for the year/year report ending July of each year:

2012: 161,743 machines
2011: 165,338 machines
2010: 168,281 machines
2009: 171,204 machines
2008: 172,447 machines
2007: 176,312 machines
2006: 177,381 machines
2005: 178,022 machines
2004: 181,409 machines

The net loss over the last 5 years (2007-2012) is 8.26%. I believe some of this loss is due to the increasing real estate taken up by community bonus games and some of the "rapid" and "table master" games.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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September 13th, 2012 at 9:01:29 PM permalink
I am fairly confident that I will probably stop going to casinos, if the craps tables are removed. And I am one that does not care for the electronic versions. I am very comfortable with technology, but I just felt isolated when watching the electronic version.
Cherokee has been here for 11 years now, and I have never been, because they had no craps game.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
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September 13th, 2012 at 9:01:45 PM permalink
paco, I asked on what chart PGP would be located... I thought traditional, not knowing the full meaning of proprietary. I wasn't thinking about the rules, but I guess that would make PGP proprietary..
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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September 13th, 2012 at 10:31:24 PM permalink
Let me put more detail. By including race and book in the OTHER category, I may have mislead people. We are comparing the year that ended October 2007 (peak earning) with the year ending July 2012

You could argue that traditional games on the strip went down -2.2% while proprietary games went down -23.65%, but that is a little misleading. For traditional games Baccarat made up the difference for the other games.


By Revenue (on the strip)

CARD GAMES -19.7%

TWENTY-ONE -31.1%
CRAPS -10.5%
ROULETTE -5.7%
BACCARAT +39.6%
KENO -46.6%
BINGO +74.8%
PAI GOW -60.6%
RACE BOOK -45.7%
SPORTS POOL -16.5%

3-CARD POKER -3.1%
MINI-BACCARAT -48.2%
LET IT RIDE -27.5%
OTHER GAMES -2.4%
PAI GOW POKER -15.2%

TOTAL GAMES -4.5% (Not including Card Games)

TOTAL SLOT MACHINES -16.9%

By Revenue (off the strip, rest of Clark County & rest of Nevada )
CARD GAMES -30.6%

TWENTY-ONE -33.5%
CRAPS -28.2%
ROULETTE -30.8%
BACCARAT -48.1%
KENO -37.9%
BINGO +66.1%
PAI GOW -37.0%
RACE BOOK -38.1%
SPORTS POOL +0.6%

3-CARD POKER -25.6%
MINI-BACCARAT -19.2%
LET IT RIDE -28.3%
PAI GOW POKER -22.6%
OTHER GAMES -26.3%

TOTAL GAMES -27.8%

TOTAL SLOT MACHINES -21.3%

When you get off strip, everything is down but Sports.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
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September 13th, 2012 at 10:36:19 PM permalink
The decline in the number of slot machines since 2004 is surprising to me. It appears that the loss is around 11% in the number of machines. I understand what teliot has indicated that some of the loss may be due to electronic table games taking some of that real estate or bigger bonus machines, but it does seem to point to an overall decrease in gambling as a whole.

How does the number of slots decrease in NV when properties such as Wynn ('05), Palazzo ('08), Encore ('08), Aria ('09) and the Cosmopolitan ('10) are being added to the NV gambling landscape. Those are significant additions of casino floor space in total and to see the number of machines decrease during that period of casino expansion indicates something bigger is going on.

I think the NV numbers (both table games & slots) may be more impacted than we are considering for the shift in that time period away from gaming of any kind and towards the dining/night club/"residence shows"/etc. experience that Nevada is using to differentiate itself from the regional gaming offerings around the country.

Has there been a significant decrease in the number of square feet of "casino space" over that '04 - '12 time period? Or there is some other explanation for the slot decrease that I am missing to explain what has happened to slot count. Whatever it is must then also be factored in to the decrease in overall table game count.

It appears that total table game count between '04 and '12 was down, less as a percentage, than the drop in slots, unless I am not reading the charts correctly (which may be the case).

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