Stock Picks

Quote: gpac1377

A complete disaster would be something like SunPower (SPWR), which finished near 36 today. In late 2012, I bought it below 5.

Unfortunately I sold at 6 :(

Wow. That's a shame. Would have been nice to hold on to it.

Quote: gpac1377

YNDX (which I didn't buy) was up 6.5% today, but the Russian stocks I did buy were up about 4%, so not a complete disaster.

A complete disaster would be something like SunPower (SPWR), which finished near 36 today. In late 2012, I bought it below 5.

Unfortunately I sold at 6 :(

We are on the same page. I just sold today, all of my Sunpower calls for March 22 @ 36. I doubled my investment (could have done a little better had I waited until 3:59). Today, my entire account was up 30% and I scaled back to no margin. If this market happens again tomorrow or ever, I'll be sad while I count the money I've made.

Quote: s2dbaker

We are on the same page. I just sold today, all of my Sunpower calls for March 22 @ 36.

Congratulations :)

I got what I deserved. I've never had a lot of confidence in solar.

Quote: gpac1377

Congratulations :)

I got what I deserved. I've never had a lot of confidence in solar.

Thank you :)
I have confidence in hot volatile stocks. It seems that each time the solar stocks drop 10% and you think the bubble has finally burst, they come back 20% over the next few days. Buy out of the money short term options on weakness and sell on strength*.

* That's not investment advice! That is gambling advice which is what I am doing in the market.

Quote: s2dbaker

Thank you :)
I have confidence in hot volatile stocks. It seems that each time the solar stocks drop 10% and you think the bubble has finally burst, they come back 20% over the next few days. Buy out of the money short term options on weakness and sell on strength*.

* That's not investment advice! That is gambling advice which is what I am doing in the market.

I think of you when I quote myself.

CSIQ dipped below 40 today so I grabbed 4 call options for 3/22 @ 40 for 2.25 each. I will likely sell them back tomorrow.

Edit: I dollar cost averaged this bet (chased the loser), now I have 22 options at an average price of 1.64

The following is the monthly summary of the performance of my stock screen vs. the S&P 500. In total, the stock screens are up 12.99% while the S&P is up 6.92%. Not quite doubled up, but awfully good.

	Screen Run of 09/09/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 03/08/14	S&P	$1,653.08	$224.96	13.61%	27.22%
As of 03/08/14	Stock Screen Group	$3,966.82	$757.21	19.09%	38.18%

	Screen Run of 10/09/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 03/08/14	S&P	$1,656.40	$221.64	13.38%	32.11%
As of 03/08/14	Stock Screen Group	$1,235.33	$160.48	12.99%	31.18%

	Screen Run of 11/09/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 03/08/14	S&P	$1,770.61	$107.43	6.07%	18.36%
As of 03/08/14	Stock Screen Group	$726.58	$99.03	13.63%	41.23%

	Screen Run of 12/07/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 03/08/14	S&P	$1,805.09	$72.95	4.04%	16.35%
As of 03/08/14	Stock Screen Group	$141.70	-$6.68	-4.71%	-19.07%

	Screen Run of 01/10/14:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 03/08/14	S&P	$1,842.37	$19.95	1.62%	10.40%
As of 03/08/14	Stock Screen Group	$1,233.47	$35.67	1.94%	12.45%

	Screen Run of 02/08/14:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 03/08/14	S&P	$1,797.02	$81.02	4.51%	57.97%
As of 03/08/14	Stock Screen Group	$1,618.39	$113.26	7.00%	89.98%

Symbol	Name	Purchase	Current	Change	% Change
ACAT	Arctic Cat Inc.	$49.14	$49.14	$0.00	0.00%
AOS	A.O. Smith Corpor	$49.12	$49.12	$0.00	0.00%
BABY	Natus Medical Inc	$26.51	$26.51	$0.00	0.00%
BLT	Blount Internatio	$12.62	$12.62	$0.00	0.00%
BRS	Bristow Group Inc	$78.30	$78.30	$0.00	0.00%
CAB	Cabela's Inc Clas	$68.31	$68.31	$0.00	0.00%
CEMI	Chembio Diagnosti	$3.46	$3.46	$0.00	0.00%
CIEN	Ciena Corporation	$24.05	$24.05	$0.00	0.00%
CONE	CyrusOne Inc	$22.70	$22.70	$0.00	0.00%
CYT	Cytec Industries	$96.06	$96.06	$0.00	0.00%
DSW	DSW Inc. Common S	$40.98	$40.98	$0.00	0.00%
ECHO	Echo Global Logis	$16.88	$16.88	$0.00	0.00%
FC	Franklin Covey Co	$21.56	$21.56	$0.00	0.00%
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	$32.19	$32.19	$0.00	0.00%
FOXF	Fox Factory Holdi	$17.00	$17.00	$0.00	0.00%
G	Genpact Limited C	$17.37	$17.37	$0.00	0.00%
GCO	Genesco Inc. Comm	$73.99	$73.99	$0.00	0.00%
HCCI	Heritage-Crystal	$18.80	$18.80	$0.00	0.00%
HDS	HD Supply Holding	$24.23	$24.23	$0.00	0.00%
INFN	Infinera Corporat	$8.94	$8.94	$0.00	0.00%
ISSI	Integrated Silico	$12.82	$12.82	$0.00	0.00%
LKQ	LKQ Corporation	$27.83	$27.83	$0.00	0.00%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular	$8.10	$8.10	$0.00	0.00%
LRCX	Lam Research Corp	$53.35	$53.35	$0.00	0.00%
LRN	K12 Inc Common St	$21.90	$21.90	$0.00	0.00%
MED	MEDIFAST INC Comm	$26.08	$26.08	$0.00	0.00%
MEI	Methode Electroni	$34.17	$34.17	$0.00	0.00%
MEOH	Methanex Corporat	$71.03	$71.03	$0.00	0.00%
MG	Mistras Group Inc	$23.24	$23.24	$0.00	0.00%
MHK	Mohawk Industries	$144.68	$144.68	$0.00	0.00%
MNTX	Manitex Internati	$16.32	$16.32	$0.00	0.00%
NPTN	NeoPhotonics Corp	$8.23	$8.23	$0.00	0.00%
NX	Quanex Building P	$19.92	$19.92	$0.00	0.00%
OVTI	OmniVision Techno	$17.04	$17.04	$0.00	0.00%
OXM	Oxford Industries	$82.02	$82.02	$0.00	0.00%
PFMT	Performant Financ	$8.00	$8.00	$0.00	0.00%
PKD	Parker Drilling C	$7.72	$7.72	$0.00	0.00%
PKG	Packaging Corpora	$74.21	$74.21	$0.00	0.00%
POWR	PowerSecure Inter	$22.49	$22.49	$0.00	0.00%
REGI	Renewable Energy	$11.48	$11.48	$0.00	0.00%
RM	Regional Manageme	$30.38	$30.38	$0.00	0.00%
SANW	S&W Seed Company	$7.25	$7.25	$0.00	0.00%
SODA	SodaStream Intern	$40.54	$40.54	$0.00	0.00%
SWC	Stillwater Mining	$14.98	$14.98	$0.00	0.00%
TAX	JTH Holding Inc.	$27.00	$27.00	$0.00	0.00%
TSCO	Tractor Supply Co	$72.72	$72.72	$0.00	0.00%
UEIC	Universal Electro	$43.25	$43.25	$0.00	0.00%
WNC	Wabash National C	$13.74	$13.74	$0.00	0.00%
XXIA	Ixia	$14.02	$14.02	$0.00	0.00%
ZUMZ	Zumiez Inc.	$24.53	$24.53	$0.00	0.00%
		$1,681.25	$1,681.25	$0.00	0.00%
	Annualized Return				0.00%
^GSPC	S&P 500	$1,878.04	$1,878.04	$0.00	0.00%
	Annualized Return				0.00%

psem is treading water. bought @ 9.
ntek is dying. bought at .10

should i sell and cut loses?

I won't comment on NTEK since I didn't like it to begin with. However, PSEM will eventually do nicely. This really is not a great market right now, in my opinion.

Just bought YNDX at 31.72.

Markets are jittery this morning.

EDIT: and ten minutes later, it's below 31. I have a gift for timing.

Just took a look at this a few minutes ago.......it looks like you're in the black now. Good Luck!

Quote: steeldco

Just took a look at this a few minutes ago.......it looks like you're in the black now. Good Luck!

Thanks, you too of course.

Look at the recent performance of Russian stocks versus the USA:



The currency situation is similar. The dollar has massively outperformed the ruble in recent weeks.

RSX has been crushed by a combination of falling stocks and currency. Considering valuations as I reckon them, the rebound potential is huge, but it's one of those "falling knife" situations that can be very painful short-term.

Thanks for this. I couldn't disagree with you. I have a second Russian company that I am considering.

I decided to invest in the unmanned drone industry this morning with a purchase of AVAV. bought at $36.90. It's run up quite a bit recently but I'm hoping it may be a takeover candidate at some point, perhaps by a Lockheed Martin (whom they have an existing partnership with)

michael99000, AVAV is an interesting company. Meets many of my criteria, however, it falls short on one of my primary criteria and that is sales growth. Do you know why the analysts would only be estimating 3% sales growth for the next couple of years?

Quote: steeldco

michael99000, AVAV is an interesting company. Meets many of my criteria, however, it falls short on one of my primary criteria and that is sales growth. Do you know why the analysts would only be estimating 3% sales growth for the next couple of years?

Based on my having purchased the stock, obviously I don't feel those figures are accurate as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The 2015 revenue est are either incorrect or not updated fully. If you look at the last quarters sales vs prior years sales and next quarters forecasted sales vs last years, they are 69M vs 54M and 51M vs 44M. It's hard to believe the company could go from yoy growth like that to suddenly stagnant, right when the industry they are in should be hitting hypergrowth stage. (Assign unpiloted drones are indeed the wave of the future).

Furthermore, I don't think the stock would ever have traded at the multiple it's even currently at if that 3% revenue growth was for real.. I read the earnings Conf call transcript from last week and there isn't much mention of 2015 numbers at all. Just that they got several growth drinking initiatives going.

michael99000, I appreciate the response. However, it's still concerning especially in light of the fact that the company shows a considerable decrease in backlog from last quarter to the most recent. I just can't see the revenue growth. I certainly hope that I'm wrong and absolutely wish you luck.

Quote: steeldco

michael99000, I appreciate the response. However, it's still concerning especially in light of the fact that the company shows a considerable decrease in backlog from last quarter to the most recent. I just can't see the revenue growth. I certainly hope that I'm wrong and absolutely wish you luck.

In a business like this where revenue streams are extremely choppy quarter to quarter and year to year, backlog is not a concern. They reiterated the 230M - 250M rev figure for fy2014, so the fact that backlog went from 78M to 56M to 133M to 95M over the last four quarters is not a worry.

Quote: steeldco

Thanks for this. I couldn't disagree with you. I have a second Russian company that I am considering.

I have no expertise in investing. But I was listening to a ralking head in politics 2 days ago, and they said that obama should consider responding to russias recent military presence in the Ukraine and surrounding area.....that obama should sign an executive order to no recognize the ruble in our baning system...which would send the russian economy into a downward spiral.

even if this is a remote possbility....does investing in russian concern you in the wake of the tension with the USA.

Quote: LarryS

even if this is a remote possbility....does investing in russian concern you in the wake of the tension with the USA.

I'm strictly an amateur as well, but there's so little traffic in this thread, I couldn't resist a few comments.

As a general rule, I assume that current prices reflect existing conditions and future expectations. Both Russian stocks and the ruble have been brutalized, so clearly the expectations are very negative.

We're all stuck on the same planet. If the USA decides to interfere in some way, Russia will not be the only casualty. Russia has military superiority in Ukraine, and is strategically allied with the powerful Chinese. I haven't seen a worldwide public opinion poll, but considering the growing hate toward the USA, I suspect there's significant empathy for Russia internationally.

Stocks appear priced for disaster in Russia, and a victory dance for the USA. I think that's quite delusional.

And more generally, I like Russia for fundamental reasons. They have a relatively strong balance sheet in an era when everyone believes massive debt is the path to prosperity, and they're rich in natural resources that should benefit as a side-effect of escalating worldwide debt and loss of confidence in fiat currencies.

My current areas of investing emphasis are natural resources and emerging markets. Russia is nearly the ideal combination of both, IMO.

Quote: LarryS

I have no expertise in investing. But I was listening to a ralking head in politics 2 days ago, and they said that obama should consider responding to russias recent military presence in the Ukraine and surrounding area.....that obama should sign an executive order to no recognize the ruble in our baning system...which would send the russian economy into a downward spiral.

even if this is a remote possbility....does investing in russian concern you in the wake of the tension with the USA.

LarryS, you raise a valid point and, of course, is a concern of mine. My view is that if economic sanctions are imposed and widely supported then my investment will take a hit. I do not believe anything will be done militarily. But since I bought in after an initial decline, I believe that my downside is less than the potential upside. Lastly, in the event sanctions are imposed and globally supported then the effects will not be seen for quite a while, and I will have exited (probably with around a 15% loss).

BTW, I watched Cavuto last night on Fox and he had Garry Kasporov as a guest. Kasporov seemed to insist that we could easily cripple Russia economically and he felt that we should. If he is right then I think that just convincing Putin that we will follow-thru with that threat will bring resolution since I don't think that Putin and his cronies want to take the financial hits.

Quote: steeldco

BTW, I watched Cavuto last night on Fox and he had Garry Kasporov as a guest. Kasporov seemed to insist that we could easily cripple Russia economically and he felt that we should. If he is right then I think that just convincing Putin that we will follow-thru with that threat will bring resolution since I don't think that Putin and his cronies want to take the financial hits.

another comment. Did anyone see the 60 minute story 2 weeks ago about an american that owned businesses in Russia. a corrupt KGB guy, raided the bussnesses, took them over with phoney forged transfer papers, and filed for a multi-mllion dollar tax rebate which he quickly received. The american tried to fight it...but his attorney was found dead.

In a country this corrupt is it wise to invest. If a competor to your company pays off the KGB, its possible that your business may be fighting some real financial difficulties via govt fines or regulations, closures etc.

Quote: LarryS

another comment. Did anyone see the 60 minute story 2 weeks ago about an american that owned businesses in Russia. a corrupt KGB guy, raided the bussnesses, took them over with phoney forged transfer papers, and filed for a multi-mllion dollar tax rebate which he quickly received. The american tried to fight it...but his attorney was found dead.

In a country this corrupt is it wise to invest. If a competor to your company pays off the KGB, its possible that your business may be fighting some real financial difficulties via govt fines or regulations, closures etc.

You bring up valid risks, but the old adage about high risk, high reward applies. What you have said is the same thing that has been said, and is still being said, about Chinese companies. Yet, I would bet that my largest winners over the past 7 or 8 years have been Chinese companies.

Quote: steeldco

You bring up valid risks, but the old adage about high risk, high reward applies. What you have said is the same thing that has been said, and is still being said, about Chinese companies. Yet, I would bet that my largest winners over the past 7 or 8 years have been Chinese companies.

The best company in the world, located in the best country, can still be a bad investment if the price is too high.

I think the prices for companies exposed to Russia are too low -- low enough to easily compensate for all risks.

But today has been another brutal day for my viewpoint :(

At the moment, I'm trying to buy more YNDX around 29.50, but it's toying with me.

EDIT: bought at 29.51 ... look out below, lol

Elsewhere in the markets, offshore drilling is looking very unpopular.

All of the following have made new 52-week lows today:

- Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO)
- Noble Corp (NE)
- Seadrill (SDRL)
- Transocean (RIG)

... and several more.

There's probably more to the story, but with oil prices down somewhat, I assume the thinking is that difficult locations, such as deep-water, will become unprofitable.

Given my inflationary outlook, the sector looks very attractive, although I have no idea which companies are best. It's too specialized an area to have an ETF.

Well, it looks like the vote for sanctions against Russia was 13 to 1 with an abstention from China, which will be viewed as being as good as a "Yes" from China since they have pretty much always supported Russia. I therefore think that Russia will, in time, back off.

I assume that the vote in Crimea will be for Russia and therefore our market declines will probably continue, particularly with the Russian companies. Since I have a bunch of dry powder from liquidating several positions a few months ago, I am heavily considering a double down on my YNDX bet. Come on 25.....

BTW, doubling down is only something that can recall doing twice in 30+ years. Not usually a fan of this.

Quote: steeldco

I assume that the vote in Crimea will be for Russia

Of course it will be, there's no choice to vote against on the ballot. Given the worst case scenario, that Russia takes over Ukraine completely and then builds a wall around themselves, I don't see how that financially hurts anyone that isn't doing business with Eastern Europe. This is a buying opportunity.

Quote: steeldco

Well, it looks like the vote for sanctions against Russia was 13 to 1 with an abstention from China

Where did you see that? The only 13-to-1 vote I find is from the UN Security Council attempting to disavow the Crimean referendum, but the lone Russian vote against was sufficient to veto the measure.

Quote: gpac1377

Where did you see that? The only 13-to-1 vote I find is from the UN Security Council attempting to disavow the Crimean referendum, but the lone Russian vote against was sufficient to veto the measure.

gpac1377, you are correct. I misunderstood. For some reason I read that the vote was for sanctions, when in fact, as you stated, it was to disavow the referendum. Nonetheless, sanctions will come on Monday.

Quote: steeldco

Nonetheless, sanctions will come on Monday.

I'm not following every detail, but I continue to contend that the market risks are worldwide, whereas to this point only eastern European stocks have been punished. Quoting Ron Paul, sanctions are "an act of war," and nobody wins a war.

I don't see how China's abstention from the vote should be considered disloyal to Russia. I think China is behaving responsibly by remaining calm and outwardly somewhat neutral, but their enemy is the USA, not Russia.

Quote: gpac1377

I'm not following every detail, but I continue to contend that the market risks are worldwide, whereas to this point only eastern European stocks have been punished. Quoting Ron Paul, sanctions are "an act of war," and nobody wins a war.

I don't see how China's abstention from the vote should be considered disloyal to Russia. I think China is behaving responsibly by remaining calm and outwardly somewhat neutral, but their enemy is the USA, not Russia.

You're right In that the market risks are worldwide. I don't think that anyone stated that they weren't?

I didn't mean to imply that China is being "disloyal". I did mean to say that their abstention is as good as a "Yes" vote. I believe they are signaling that they are against Russia's involvement in Crimea, but are remaining "loyal" by abstaining.

Quote: steeldco

You're right In that the market risks are worldwide. I don't think that anyone stated that they weren't?

I was referring to your quote here:

Quote:

therefore our market declines will probably continue, particularly with the Russian companies.

You seemed to suggest that Russia has more short-term vulnerability than the US & Europe. I don't see any reason to make that assumption.

Quote: gpac1377

I was referring to your quote here:


You seemed to suggest that Russia has more short-term vulnerability than the US & Europe. I don't see any reason to make that assumption.

I do believe that the Russian companies will be hit harder. I didn't say the US and Europe would be immune. There will be declines there also, with (my belief) that Europe will be hit a bit more than the US. If I were to pull numbers out of the air, I would make it something like Russia -15%, Europe -7%, and the US -4%. Just a SWAG.

Quote: steeldco

I do believe that the Russian companies will be hit harder. I didn't say the US and Europe would be immune. There will be declines there also, with (my belief) that Europe will be hit a bit more than the US. If I were to pull numbers out of the air, I would make it something like Russia -15%, Europe -7%, and the US -4%. Just a SWAG.

My stating that obviously means that the markets will be up tomorrow. :-)

Quote: steeldco

I do believe that the Russian companies will be hit harder. I didn't say the US and Europe would be immune.

I was trying to disagree with you regarding the content of the first sentence only. Sorry for any confusion.

No worries. I may be the king of misunderstandings......and VERY easily confused.

Quote: steeldco

I am heavily considering a double down on my YNDX bet. Come on 25.....

Quote:

BTW, doubling down is only something that can recall doing twice in 30+ years.

Since I've already bought YNDX twice, I guess I should mention that multiple purchases are standard procedure for me. I like to buy smallish increments and chase my mistakes lower :)

My total Russian stock exposure is now around 2% of assets, which is already overallocated based on world market cap, but I'm prepared to crank that up to 3 or 4% should the declines intensify.

We're set up for a very interesting week ahead. Beyond Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decisions Wednesday. The Fed governors are increasingly disillusioned with quantitative easing, and the consensus is that they will "taper" the program again, but Yellen is unlikely to simply wind down Bernanke's policies. She wants to "help" the economy, and I expect new forms of stimulus to be proposed in the months ahead.

My approach has always been to commit one way or the other (not that it's necessarily the only way to win). I tend to jump in with an allocated investment, in full, and whatever happens, happens. For me it happens to have worked. I noticed early on that is just as probable that an issue runs up and away from me as it is probable that it goes lower and I can average down. Conversely, I don't sell in part since I sell if I feel it has reached fair value and therefore there is no reason to hold any part. Usually......there have been a couple of exceptions. Many different ways to skin the cat............

Anyway, yes, it should be an interesting week. Good Luck!

Quote: steeldco

it goes lower and I can average down.

Averaging down is probably the most dangerous strategies around. Averaging down implies that you know the stock will eventually turn around….that's your ego refusing to admit your wrong. You have no way of knowing the stock will come back. Dogs don't always come home. Take small loses. Don't chase losers.

Traders/investors that average down usually end up with a basket full of s***……

Look for stocks that are breaking through resistance. Buy high and sell higher.

Turtle Trading (look it up) is the only way your going to make serious money (maybe). Your fundamental trading is a waste of time. Everybody is seeing the same s*** that your seeing.

As Gordon Gekko said "If your not on the inside, your on the outside." Your on the outside Old Sport, Sorry.

don't avg down. use 1yr call options.

purchase one call option and selling two call options for every 100 shares of stock owned.

but since I don't know options, I have no idea how to do this :(

Sounds like your trying to employ a rough version of a Butterfly Spread…….your looking for a tight trading range for the above strategy to be successful…..depending on strike prices of course.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Averaging down is probably the most dangerous strategies around. Averaging down implies that you know the stock will eventually turn around….that's your ego refusing to admit your wrong. You have no way of knowing the stock will come back. Dogs don't always come home. Take small loses. Don't chase losers.

Traders/investors that average down usually end up with a basket full of s***……

Look for stocks that are breaking through resistance. Buy high and sell higher.

Turtle Trading (look it up) is the only way your going to make serious money (maybe). Your fundamental trading is a waste of time. Everybody is seeing the same s*** that your seeing.

As Gordon Gekko said "If your not on the inside, your on the outside." Your on the outside Old Sport, Sorry.

treetopbuddy, I have to absolutely disagree with you. I will NEVER pick a stock based upon a chart.
Also, I will never materially change the way that I invest. It has just been too good to me. It'd be foolish.

With SVA having a great day, I thought I would post one of the things that I had run across back in doing my due diligence when I made my initial investment.
The following is out of "Gates Notes".

January 12, 2011
In China, Speeding Toward the Future
By Bill Gates

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In September 2010, Bill traveled through China to visit with vaccine makers, computer scientists, energy technology companies and car manufacturers.

I travelled to China for the first time in 1990 on Microsoft business and have been back many times since. One very memorable trip was in 1995 with Melinda, my father and Warren Buffett. We rode the trains and traveled around as tourists for several weeks – it was an incredible trip and a lot of fun.

My recent trip was unique and especially exciting, as I had the opportunity to do work that spans my various interests. I met with our team at Microsoft Research Asia, where I saw some incredible innovations in search and related technologies. I also met with a number of vaccine companies that are working with our foundation. For the last part of the trip, I joined Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and other Berkshire Hathaway board members. Our main focus was a visit to BYD, an incredible company in which Berkshire owns a 10 percent stake. BYD fully lives up to its name, which stands for Build Your Dreams. It manufactures batteries, electric and hybrid cars and buses, and many highly innovative green products.

The meetings with vaccine manufacturers were about the potential for expanding development of new vaccines in China for use worldwide. Historically, most important vaccines have originated in Europe and the United States. Now, countries like Brazil, India and China are providing lower-cost versions of some of them. Ideally, they’ll also get involved in inventing new vaccines. Because these countries suffer from many of the infectious diseases that we need new vaccines for, local development could help speed vaccine dissemination. Also, because countries like China have experience in making low-cost vaccines, they could be better at designing new ones in ways that make them low in cost from the very beginning. That would be wonderful.

And so the foundation is reaching out to new vaccine companies, seeing how we can help them and what holds them back. This was my first visit with some of the companies in China. I was impressed at how quickly the industry is moving ahead. They really understand low-cost manufacturing, and they're getting their quality up to world standards. Over the next five to ten years, they have the potential to create many breakthrough vaccines, as well as to help get current vaccines to the world’s poorest people, for whom price can be a significant obstacle.

Specifically, the foundation is trying to make sure that every child in the world gets three vaccines: pentavalent (against diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, hepatitis B and influenza B), rotavirus (against severe acute gastroenteritis) and pneumococcal (against pneumonia). Together, these three could reduce child deaths by almost one million per year. If we can get their cost down, then we'll be able to get all three to even the poorest children in the world. It looks like China could help out on low-cost rotavirus and pneumococcal. So we have possibilities there, as we do in India and Brazil.

Gearing up to manufacture vaccines that meet international standards is a costly and complex process. In China we saw a flu vaccine manufacturing line that is unique in that it involves growing flu virus in chicken eggs. The plant has to buy a huge number of eggs and make sure they're all sterile. It's quite a process, and people worry that, in the event of a big epidemic, they might not be able to buy enough eggs and grow the virus quickly enough. But in our visit to Sinovac Biotech, headquartered in the Beijing University Biological Industry Park, we saw that it has really distinguished itself by rapidly building up its flu vaccine capability. That was quite impressive.

There is a company called Trinity Biotech that is close to being attractive enough to want to buy despite what I believe to be a lousy market. The symbol is TRIB and the combination of a product on the verge of approval (its high sensitivity Troponin, which is used for detection of heart attacks) and the fact that it has gotten beaten up on price here lately causes me to add it to this portfolio. Any break below $22.50 either this week or next will cause me to add.

It just might end up happening Monday.......market sucks.

Here's the once a month summary of how each month's stock screen has done as compared to the S&P 500:

	Screen Run of 09/09/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,653.08	$162.61	9.84%	16.47%
	Stock Screen Group	$3,966.82	$481.07	12.13%	20.31%

	Screen Run of 10/09/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,656.40	$159.29	9.62%	18.71%
	Stock Screen Group	$1,235.33	$110.27	8.93%	17.37%

	Screen Run of 11/09/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,770.61	$45.08	2.55%	5.95%
	Stock Screen Group	$726.58	$18.23	2.51%	5.86%

	Screen Run of 12/07/13:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,805.09	$10.60	0.59%	1.70%
	Stock Screen Group	$141.70	-$13.54	-9.55%	-27.73%

	Screen Run of 01/10/14:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,842.37	-$26.68	-1.45%	-5.73%
	Stock Screen Group	$1,233.47	-$73.80	-5.98%	-23.67%

	Screen Run of 02/08/14:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,797.02	$18.67	1.04%	5.94%
	Stock Screen Group	$1,618.39	$10.04	0.62%	3.54%

	Screen Run of 03/08/14:
		$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Annualized
As of 04/12/14	S&P	$1,878.04	-$62.35	-3.32%	-36.22%
	Stock Screen Group	$1,681.25	-$114.89	-6.83%	-74.55%

Summary	$ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain
S&P	$12,402.61	$307.22	2.48%
All Stock Screen Groups	$10,603.54	$417.38	3.94%

Below are the results of today's stock screen.

Symbol	Name	Purchase	Current	Change	% Change
BABY	Natus Medical Inc	$23.16	$23.16	$0.00	0.00%
CAB	Cabela's Inc Clas	$64.21	$64.21	$0.00	0.00%
CEMI	Chembio Diagnosti	$3.14	$3.14	$0.00	0.00%
CONE	CyrusOne Inc	$20.51	$20.51	$0.00	0.00%
CRAY	Cray Inc	$32.00	$32.00	$0.00	0.00%
ECHO	Echo Global Logis	$16.90	$16.90	$0.00	0.00%
EJ	E-House (China) H	$10.73	$10.73	$0.00	0.00%
FBRC	FBR & Co	$24.76	$24.76	$0.00	0.00%
FCX	Freeport-McMoRan	$32.56	$32.56	$0.00	0.00%
FRM	Furmanite Corpora	$8.99	$8.99	$0.00	0.00%
GIII	G-III Apparel Gro	$71.99	$71.99	$0.00	0.00%
INFN	Infinera Corporat	$8.09	$8.09	$0.00	0.00%
ISSI	Integrated Silico	$13.97	$13.97	$0.00	0.00%
LKQ	LKQ Corporation	$27.42	$27.42	$0.00	0.00%
LL	Lumber Liquidator	$85.68	$85.68	$0.00	0.00%
LRCX	Lam Research Corp	$52.63	$52.63	$0.00	0.00%
LRN	K12 Inc Common St	$21.62	$21.62	$0.00	0.00%
LTXC	LTX-Credence Corp	$8.90	$8.90	$0.00	0.00%
MDCO	The Medicines Com	$25.09	$25.09	$0.00	0.00%
MG	Mistras Group Inc	$22.66	$22.66	$0.00	0.00%
MHK	Mohawk Industries	$131.03	$131.03	$0.00	0.00%
MNTX	Manitex Internati	$16.49	$16.49	$0.00	0.00%
NMRX	Numerex Corp.	$10.06	$10.06	$0.00	0.00%
OVTI	OmniVision Techno	$18.09	$18.09	$0.00	0.00%
PFMT	Performant Financ	$8.41	$8.41	$0.00	0.00%
PKD	Parker Drilling C	$6.83	$6.83	$0.00	0.00%
PKG	Packaging Corpora	$66.31	$66.31	$0.00	0.00%
POWR	PowerSecure Inter	$20.67	$20.67	$0.00	0.00%
REGI	Renewable Energy	$11.85	$11.85	$0.00	0.00%
RM	Regional Manageme	$21.81	$21.81	$0.00	0.00%
SANW	S&W Seed Company	$7.59	$7.59	$0.00	0.00%
SODA	SodaStream Intern	$38.71	$38.71	$0.00	0.00%
SWC	Stillwater Mining	$15.52	$15.52	$0.00	0.00%
TAX	JTH Holding Inc.	$26.82	$26.82	$0.00	0.00%
TOL	Toll Brothers Inc	$34.73	$34.73	$0.00	0.00%
XXIA	Ixia	$12.58	$12.58	$0.00	0.00%
		$1,022.51	$1,022.51	$0.00	0.00%
	Annualized Return				0.00%
^GSPC	S&P 500	$1,815.69	$1,815.69	$0.00	0.00%
	Annualized Return				0.00%

Here's a current summary of the picks made so far:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
SVA	6.27	3.72	$5,474.50	68.38%	69.33%
SIMG	6.22	4.61	$2,407.00	34.77%	27.47%
CKSW	9.40	8.04	$1,352.00	16.80%	10.61%
YNDX	28.01	32.16	($1,045.50)	-12.99%	-112.90%
Total			$8,188.00	26.39%