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Ardent1
Ardent1
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 12:50:39 PM permalink
Quote: TheBigPaybak

Here's one for any fellow gamblers out there: Athersys (ATHX)

The stock is trading at 1.19 right now, with a 52-week range of .95 to 2.33. It's a biotech company primary focused on stem cells. While a few years ago, it may have been more of a laughing matter (stem cells???!!) the industry is actually starting to mature with *real* treatments coming online. ATHX closed a $100 million dollar partnership with Pfizer a few years back (payments ongoing based on milestones) so it's not all vapor. They also have a weight-loss drug where a partnership is expected to be announced in the next few months. They did a secondary offer at around a buck a share and have $30 million in the bank, so they have enough cash to fund their business for a few years. The interesting thing about them is that if only one of their initiatives pan out, then the sky is the limit and they could easily become a billion dollar company, no exaggeration. I've met the CEO and he's a sharp guy. Good action on the stock in the last few weeks. This is one to watch, one to gamble on, for those who like to gamble in The Market.



I earned my CFA designation in 2001 and I got sick of the financial industry because IMHO it really is a corrupt industry.

It would be nice if people disclose: (a) if they have a position in the stock at time of the post and (b) how they valued the stock, i.e. DCF, option-valuation theory and show the work.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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January 7th, 2013 at 1:36:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

I earned my CFA designation in 2001 and I got sick of the financial industry because IMHO it really is a corrupt industry.

It would be nice if people disclose: (a) if they have a position in the stock at time of the post and (b) how they valued the stock, i.e. DCF, option-valuation theory and show the work.



Ardent1, as an FYI, I ALWAYS own that which I recommend. Insofar as valuation is concerned, there are so many different methodologies. Personally, I'm not about to go about showing all of my work. Do your own due diligence and valuation. Valuation goes out the window if there isn't sufficient sales growth. THAT is the driver to higher future stock prices. Increasing sales cover alot of sins........I begin with that.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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January 7th, 2013 at 1:38:29 PM permalink
Mr Random buys stocks too, you know . His partner in those ventures is Mr Dart !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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January 7th, 2013 at 1:41:24 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Mr Random buys stocks too, you know . His partner in those ventures is Mr Dart !


ROFL
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
TheBigPaybak
TheBigPaybak
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 14
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January 7th, 2013 at 1:46:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

I earned my CFA designation in 2001 and I got sick of the financial industry because IMHO it really is a corrupt industry.

It would be nice if people disclose: (a) if they have a position in the stock at time of the post and (b) how they valued the stock, i.e. DCF, option-valuation theory and show the work.



Just to be clear if not already, ATHX is truly a gamble as their ultimate success will depend on whether their technology works AND if they can make money from it before they use all of their cash/resources. People investing in this company should be prepared to lose it all. I am although it would hurt.

I'm just an amateur investor, and yes, I do have a sizable position in the company as a percent of my overall portfolio. I'm a believer. Hopefully I'm right! I don't have any inside information, but here's a good nugget from a recent Piper Jaffray conference:
http://ir.athersys.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=722257

Toward the end of the presentation, you'll hear the ATHX presenter talk about a high-quality partnership "over the next couple of quarters". The presentation was November 27th-28th of 2012, so it seems very likely that they will announce something within the first half of 2013. The last time they announced a significant partnership, the stock shot up to the 5-6 dollar level. Will history repeat itself?

Right now the stock's in the gutter and as they don't have meaningful earnings, so how do you assign a value to it? That's above my pay grade, except I can say with a market cap of around $63 million and around $30 million in the bank, The Street is currently assigning a value of around $33 million for their patent portfolio and essentially their whole business. That seems cheap especially when they did cut a $100 million deal a few years ago. The billion dollar question is whether their products will truly help certain disease conditions. For example, for people unfortunate enough to have a stroke now, the first few hours of treatment are critical to avoid long-term damage. Athersys may have a treatment option that helps for days and weeks after a stroke were to occur. Even if it were to work in a small percentage of people, as long as it was safe, it would be huge!

Anyway, this is a gamble, posted on a gambling forum. I'm a non-AP too, so take it all for what it's worth: just an idea that may or may not pan out. If they didn't previously cut a $100 million dollar deal with Pfizer, I'd be more skeptical, but that at least proves they have something that has value.
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
JW17
JW17
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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January 7th, 2013 at 6:01:14 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

JW17, I took a quick look at ZNGA and am somewhat concerned with their shutting down as many games as they are. I think that is worth keeping an eye on, but I think I will wait until the dust settles a bit. I want to see their calendar Q1 2013 income statement before doing anything.



Probably a smart move, but I'm gambling on them getting gambling for real money. That will bring in much more than the Petsvilles of the world.
TheBigPaybak
TheBigPaybak
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 437
January 31st, 2013 at 6:26:28 AM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

I earned my CFA designation in 2001 and I got sick of the financial industry because IMHO it really is a corrupt industry.

It would be nice if people disclose: (a) if they have a position in the stock at time of the post and (b) how they valued the stock, i.e. DCF, option-valuation theory and show the work.



Here's a recently posted comprehensive analysis on ATHX, much better than i could ever do:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1141481-athersys-a-significantly-undervalued-stem-cell-company-approaching-key-catalysts

Things continue to trend up.
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 1716
January 31st, 2013 at 2:49:26 PM permalink
An update to my icks since the thread got dugup again
COH is back to 51-52 as predicted
Rails CNI and GWR up nicely... GWR recently bought out RRA and jumped $10 quickly
MickyD's hummin along
AT&T still 34-35 pullin down a nice divi


I see someone asked why 2/3 core picks are rails... GWR is Old Greenwich money and ops. Very smart/sharp investing. The RRA buy was a nice play, and GWR will sort-out the lines.
CNI is the best run RR in the bizz. Screw Chicago delays, we'll buy lines around Chitown and get 'er dun.
MCD has $8 BigMac Meals and wifi. After being in the mid 80's its back to mid 90's. (Whew)
T is just T it ain't goin anywhere, just pay me my 5.9%... beats the banks by miles.

EDIT: I had to check on final transfer positions. In late 2012 (Nov. I sold off the entire pf to capture the anticipated lower L.T. Cap Gains Rate offered. All of the buy backs were completed as of Jan. 10th this year. On the sell/buy-back I lost about $1500 on a $405000 pf as of today. Most of this loss is the 1100 T I owned b4 the add of 1400 sh.

This is pretty much my retirement funded from an original $27500 in 2000/01. I missed a few like AAPL, but scored nicely on HIG and F on their rebounds in 08/09.
Recent epitaph: Found dead by a Pokemon Go Player
TheBigPaybak
TheBigPaybak
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 437
January 31st, 2013 at 3:49:03 PM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

An update to my icks since the thread got dugup again
COH is back to 51-52 as predicted
Rails CNI and GWR up nicely... GWR recently bought out RRA and jumped $10 quickly
MickyD's hummin along
AT&T still 34-35 pullin down a nice divi


I see someone asked why 2/3 core picks are rails... GWR is Old Greenwich money and ops. Very smart/sharp investing. The RRA buy was a nice play, and GWR will sort-out the lines.
CNI is the best run RR in the bizz. Screw Chicago delays, we'll buy lines around Chitown and get 'er dun.
MCD has $8 BigMac Meals and wifi. After being in the mid 80's its back to mid 90's. (Whew)
T is just T it ain't goin anywhere, just pay me my 5.9%... beats the banks by miles.

EDIT: I had to check on final transfer positions. In late 2012 (Nov. I sold off the entire pf to capture the anticipated lower L.T. Cap Gains Rate offered. All of the buy backs were completed as of Jan. 10th this year. On the sell/buy-back I lost about $1500 on a $405000 pf as of today. Most of this loss is the 1100 T I owned b4 the add of 1400 sh.

This is pretty much my retirement funded from an original $27500 in 2000/01. I missed a few like AAPL, but scored nicely on HIG and F on their rebounds in 08/09.



And my update: since first posting, ATHX has risen a little over 33% to close at $1.61 today. There has been a tremendous amount of new interest in the stock, resulting in a lot of articles being written. Recently the following two two came out which where so comprehensive and well-written, they alone probably caused today's rise and huge volume:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1141481-athersys-a-significantly-undervalued-stem-cell-company-approaching-key-catalysts
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1146501-a-candid-conversation-with-athersys-ceo-gil-van-bokkelen

They both present a very clear picture of what "could" be, with the million(billion?!) dollar question being, will it happen? I assume we'll have an answer to that in the next few years, hopefully they'll knock it out of the park. Until then, I would expect volatility to continue, although I still think the risk/reward is great enough to warrant further increase in share price even given the rise over the past month.
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
TheBigPaybak
TheBigPaybak
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 437
April 16th, 2013 at 9:40:09 AM permalink
Quote: TheBigPaybak

And my update: since first posting, ATHX has risen a little over 33% to close at $1.61 today. There has been a tremendous amount of new interest in the stock, resulting in a lot of articles being written. Recently the following two two came out which where so comprehensive and well-written, they alone probably caused today's rise and huge volume:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1141481-athersys-a-significantly-undervalued-stem-cell-company-approaching-key-catalysts
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1146501-a-candid-conversation-with-athersys-ceo-gil-van-bokkelen

They both present a very clear picture of what "could" be, with the million(billion?!) dollar question being, will it happen? I assume we'll have an answer to that in the next few years, hopefully they'll knock it out of the park. Until then, I would expect volatility to continue, although I still think the risk/reward is great enough to warrant further increase in share price even given the rise over the past month.



We're now up over a $1 at this point since the first posting, representing close to a 100% gain. Still high risk/reward situation, although the trading action lately has been quite interesting. Time will tell- hopefully this will turn into my "royal"...
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.

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