Stock Picks

Quote: MrV

My investment in NTEK has not gone well. The stock has tanked. Down over 91%! Good grief. Why the implosion?

Quote: steeldco

So I'm looking at the portfolio wondering whether there is anything that I should change.

Quote: odiousgambit

So, steeldco, Aug 21st was your last check-in, before the crash. How are your stocks doing?

Quote: odiousgambit

How is your portfolio compared to the August date convenient for you to check that is prior to 8-18?

I'm so heavy into index funds that you can just look at a chart of the S&P 500 to know what happened to mine. I am well prepared for this drop however, plus so far actually it is not that much of a big deal.

the fear factor for me is length of time before they go back up to where they were.

Quote: odiousgambit

How is your portfolio compared to the August date convenient for you to check that is prior to 8-18?

I'm so heavy into index funds that you can just look at a chart of the S&P 500 to know what happened to mine. I am well prepared for this drop however, plus so far actually it is not that much of a big deal.

the fear factor for me is length of time before they go back up to where they were.

Quote: steeldco

The S&P 500 over this time period was down 7.20%. The table below shows a loss of 9.59%.

Quote: steeldco

Just curious, how did the sum of your index funds do??

Quote: petroglyph

At one point yesterday there were 207 claims per ounce of deliverable gold, ala John Corzine or Bernie Madoff. If you don't hold it, you may not. Gold has moved from West to East. Where does the 2000 tons of gold China sucks up anually come from?

Quote:

A question I think worth pondering? If you own stock, do you have in your possession the original stock certificates? If not, do you know who/what the DTCC is, and did it go underwater on 911? Possession is often at least 9/10ths of the law. Of course, IMHO.

Quote: odiousgambit

Let me get back to you on equities only.

Quote: odiousgambit

I don't know what claims per ounce is about. I was pointing out if buyers weren't aware, that there is a big difference between physical metals and "paper" metals. I have been stung with both. The first time, I at least held the bullion, during Reagan, and got killed. The second I had what I thought was silver and indeed payed storage fees on what turned out to be "paper silver" which meant what I actually invested in was a silver proxy. Just like "SLV" is today. They may hold 10% of what they sell in proxy's. The sec has passed a law that the Comex, does not have "to settle" in actual metal. If someone were to show up at the door during a crisis [or just about anytime] they can settle in cash or check. They do not have to produce the metal that the certificate claim indicates.

It galls me that they are allowed to charge storage fees on hypothetical metal. The tidbit I put up was to share that for every ounce of gold that is "deliverable" at the Commodity exchange, there are over two hundred people that think they own that ounce. If there were a run on the banks, a lot of people would be very disappointed as the exchanges have sold more than 200 times as much gold as exists. No one to my satisfaction,has come up with a believable theory as to where all the gold that China has purchased [an took delivery] has come from. The last I've seen was they hold more than 9000 tons, which is more than the US claims to hold, in all it's bullion vaults. There hasn't been an audit of Fort Knox in decades, and even that wasn't assayed.

Quote:

What did you come across?

Ted Butler probably knows as much as anybody?Ihttp://www.butlerresearch.com/archive-free.asp

People buy gold [or metals] for different reasons. If buying for an investment, the money is in turning it, so paper is faster. If holding as a hedge against a debasement or gov. confiscation ala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102,, other ways to store wealth may be something to consider?

Quote:

I am one of the old duffers that can remember actually holding my stock certificates. I should have kept the ones that became worthless for nostalgia.

I wish I would have held onto my confederate money. likewise for nostalgia.

Quote:

If the DTCC went underwater, somebody is coming up with the cash when I sell.

I just like to point out the reality occasionally that those of us who have a portfolio don't actually hold the stock itself, we have "claims" on the stock. I wonder how many fictitious stock certs have been printed up to go along with the fed. res. notes? It's not like anyone is actually going to turn GE, or Monsanto into cash and divvy it up amongst all that have claims on it. I just like a dose of truth to go with my gmo cereal in the morning. : )

Quote:

To me, if you want to worry about the nature of the Capitalist System, just ponder the fact that your deposits at the bank down the street are not really there. If there is a run on the bank, they might have something like 20% of the depositors' money

I went down the rabbit hole before when sweeps became legal. After closing, the bank doesn't have to hold 1%. Then along came this whole tier capital, and marc to fantasy accounting. There are over 600 trillion in derivatives floating around in cyber space at any given time. It wouldn't take a 3% fault to collapse the whole fiat central bank system. Ever wonder what happened to Saddam's gold or Khadaffi's gold, [86 tons] or why the guerilla's in Libya formed a central bank during the conflict, or why we haven't returned Germany's AU, after their request last year? Ukraines gold was the first thing apprehended. What about Greece? They "had" around 80 tons. I want to know where the world is coming up with over 2000 tons per year that China is admitting to receiving, at these manipulated prices.

Edited; just went over 228 claims per deliverable ounce

Quote: coachjm

Adding my 2 cents YMMV. I've taken my entire retirement portfolio and put it on the sideline for now (bonds and money market). My analysis leads me to believe (for discussion purposes - using S&P) that 2k is the new 2140 and we need at least another revisit of the mid 1800 bottom of a few weeks ago. My lone position is albeit a minor holding, of SLV. I was previously invested in (after a long hiatus, initiated some positions 5-6 months ago) AAPL, STX, HD, SPG, ACN, TJX & IBM and the one stock which I didn't set a limit on, KORS, crushed my returns. I took what little profit I had, just before the correction, and ended down,about 5%. I'm now sitting on the sidelines until we break down, or up, which looks to be coming in 2 weeksish. I just keep looking at the higher lows as we ascend to a tip, last time we broke down, I have a feeling it'll head there again. Really looking forward to a correction, obviously not an emerging bear. But any losses I dodge, are gonna be compounding once we start moving forward again. Cool thread!

Quote: steeldco

I had said a while ago that I thought that the range for oil would be $44, plus or minus 10%. I am knowing wondering if this is optimistic. But more importantly the cynic in me is thinking "is the killing and fighting in the Middle East actually the work of governments there, who are dependent upon oil, trying to cull the herds"? Or even if not, will lower pricing bring even more violence since the Middle East economies are dependent on oil?

Quote: odiousgambit

Apologies in advance for being harsh ... I am very opinionated in these matters, and to top it off there's no particular reason you should be listening to me. On that matter, though, I can confidently say I am merely echoing what I have gleaned from Ric Edelman and from various newsletters put out by places like Vanguard and T Rowe Price over decades. Yes, there are people who say not to listen to them either.

For what you have said you've done, you lock in your losses this way. Plus bonds can lose their value too. The market actually has done a minor correction is all. That's the good news and the bad news. It's good that you have picked a time when stocks are higher than they were most of 2014 [you say you are down 5% so perhaps you haven't been investing long]. What's bad is this minor correction has seemed to panic you.

That was harsh as promised, but you can redeem yourself and even crow and brag, thumbing your nose at me and all those "experts" ha ha ha.



How? Buy back in at the best time, or even just buy back in when stocks are lower than they are now by some substantial amount.

There have been guys promoting books and such all along over the years predicting financial meltdowns. Like a stopped clock, they are right every now and then, twice a day for a clock and maybe once a decade for financial doomsayers. In the case of the latter, they can take that lucky stroke and try to profit on it. The problem is, almost without exception, they fail to get back in at the right time. So, if you can do it, thumb your nose indeed.

PS: what's the alternative? Learn how to rebalance your portfolio in times of correction. That unfortunately means buying stocks and selling bonds during a downturn, the opposite of what you have described.

Quote: steeldco

Also, I am starting to get the feeling that civil war in Saudi Arabia is inevitable. Where would oil prices go? If it happens, imagine where we would have been had we not increased domestic reserves and production.

Quote: odiousgambit

This?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-oualaalou/a-possible-coup-in-saudi_b_8325456.html

btw I do not recall the assassination in 1975

Quote: steeldco

Took a while, but I am now a bit more comfortable with the market. Here's a stock screen run as of today. I also decided to rank them from best to worst.

Symbol	Name	Last Close
DSKY	IDREAMSKY ADR	12.03
FIT	FITBIT INC	37.31
NVEE	NV5 HOLDING INC	23.1
CGNT	COGENTIX MEDICL	1.4
SSYS	STRATASYS LTD	27.22
RNET	RIGNET INC	31.46
MTSN	MATTSON TECH	2.35
P	PANDORA MEDIA	12.19
SMCI	SUPER MICRO COM	29.9
RTIX	RTI SURGICAL	3.88
ORBK	ORBOTECH LTD	16.35
QUOT	QUOTIENT TECH	6.38
EXAR	EXAR CORP	5.91
CRUS	CIRRUS LOGIC	31.37
HIVE	AEROHIVE NETWRK	6.99
DDD	3D SYSTEMS CORP	10.44
SALE	RETAILMENOT INC	10.53
EXAM	EXAMWORKS GROUP	28.75
PRCP	PERCEPTRON INC	8.11
CDNA	CAREDX INC	4.36
STRI	STR HOLDINGS	0.51
PEIX	PAC ETHANOL INC	6.47
ALLT	ALLOT COMM LTD	5.6
XCRA	XCERRA CORP	7.27
HCCI	HERITAGE-CRYSTL	11.97
MCHX	MARCHEX INC	4.44
CHGG	CHEGG INC	7.83
RATE	BANKRATE INC	12.24

Quote: steeldco

It's been a while since I posted the performance of the picks made for my personal portfolio here so I thought that I would do it. BTW, one of the previously posted 100% gainers was one of my picks, BRDR. Too bad that I couldn't have selected the others......

Open Positions:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	SHARES	Gain (Loss)	% Gain
ALLT	5.35	7.86	1000	($2,525.00)	-32.06%
ARAY	7.03	8.61	900	($1,437.00)	-18.51%
EGHT	12.15	7.28	1000	$4,862.00	66.71%
FCEL	0.8486	1.13	8000	($2,261.20)	-24.99%
NVIV	9.27	3.72	2000	$11,092.00	148.93%
ONVO	3.39	5.67	1500	($3,435.00)	-40.32%
RKUS	11.34	10.39	700	$657.00	9.02%
SSYS	24.38	36.02	200	($2,343.00)	-32.46%
SVA	5.42	3.72	2150	$3,647.00	45.55%
YNDX	16.57	25.815	500	($4,638.50)	-35.89%
				$3,618.30	4.34%

Closed Positions:

Symbol	Time & Price	Price	Shares	Mkt Value	Price Paid	Cost	$ Gain (Loss)	% Gain
OPTR	23-Oct	$12.78	571	$7,297.38	$14.00	$7,994.00	($696.62)	-8.71%
CCIH	6-Dec	$8.74	2,025	$17,698.50	$3.95	$7,998.75	$9,699.75	121.27%
SIMG	27-Jan	$7.26	1,500	$10,890.00	$4.61	$6,915.00	$3,975.00	57.48%
TRIB	10-Feb	$17.53	500	$8,765.00	$16.97	$8,485.00	$280.00	3.30%
CKSW	30-Apr	$12.44	1,000	$12,440.00	8.04	$8,040.00	$4,400.00	54.73%
BRDR	6-May	$13.94	1,200	$16,728.00	6.03	$7,236.00	$9,492.00	131.18%
Total						$46,668.75	$27,150.13	58.18%

Quote: Boz

Quote: steeldco

Just wanted to give you a HUGE Thank You on the 8 by 8. Had never heard of it before your list and did a little research and bought in. Naturally I wish I would have bought more, but greed kills. Thanks again! Boz

Boz, you're very welcome!

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Quote: Boz

Just wanted to give you a HUGE Thank You on the 8 by 8. Had never heard of it before your list and did a little research and bought in. Naturally I wish I would have bought more, but greed kills. Thanks again! Boz

Quote: odiousgambit

Steeldco, I would certainly sell the one up 149% ... knowing nothing else about it than that

Quote: wroberson

Sorry I wasn't around earlier. NXPI is a semiconductor company that puts chips into cell phones that allow customers to buy things. It's a 1st mover. About the time this thread was posted it was 25 bucks. It was 33 the last I checked. At the time is was a buy/hold until 2015. Europe is where the chips were first used as America is usually late on getting in on me technologies.

33% in 1st year is sweet!

Quote: steeldco

Using this metric, I took a look at the last screen run and chose the 5 best performers. Shown below. Which one of these will be the 100% gainer in the bunch??

Symbols	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 11/28/15
CDNA	11/4/2015	44.50%
MTSN	11/4/2015	29.79%
ORBK	11/4/2015	23.85%
RATE	11/4/2015	20.18%
P	11/4/2015	12.63%

Quote: odiousgambit

Insider trading, eh? j/k

Steeldco, I would certainly sell the one up 149% ... knowing nothing else about it than that

Quote: steeldco

Quote: steeldco

Using this metric, I took a look at the last screen run and chose the 5 best performers. Shown below. Which one of these will be the 100% gainer in the bunch??

Symbols	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 11/28/15
CDNA	11/4/2015	44.50%
MTSN	11/4/2015	29.79%
ORBK	11/4/2015	23.85%
RATE	11/4/2015	20.18%
P	11/4/2015	12.63%

I think my personal favorite of the 5 is MTSN. Despite lagging the leader, I believe it stands the best chance of hitting a 100% gain...........up 4% today.

Quote: odiousgambit

Assuming no insider knowledge is in play, and I do assume that with you, I'd say what is going on with that stock is one of 3 things:

*since the value of a stock should reflect at all times all known factors in its price [less a risk-wariness factor], since it was up 149% some new factor has come into play to make it go up 185% now

*the risk wariness is waning extraordinarily quickly

*speculators are working the stock over in a "find a greater fool" phenomenon

two of these things seem just fine to deal with

or what would you say? I too am not trying to be unpleasant btw

Quote: steeldco

I think that the one statement that is very, very wrong (my opinion at least) is that "the value of a stock should reflect at all times all known factors in its price". I believe this is incorrect because most people can not properly assess the probabilities of success on what are known upcoming events. Known upcoming events that have a value. It is subjective and most investors can't properly assess it and therefore most value it at 0. The large investors, who can, happily ride the selling price since they know that they can buy lower because of this.

Quote: odiousgambit

We can disagree. What you say has some validity, of course.

You did leave out one qualifier I had put in there, that the risk factor weighs down the general assessment of where the price should be. Of course some of those warning about the risk prove to be prophets too.

Quote: steeldco

Quote: steeldco

Using this metric, I took a look at the last screen run and chose the 5 best performers. Shown below. Which one of these will be the 100% gainer in the bunch??

Symbols	Screen Run Date	Gain as of 11/28/15
CDNA	11/4/2015	44.50%
MTSN	11/4/2015	29.79%
ORBK	11/4/2015	23.85%
RATE	11/4/2015	20.18%
P	11/4/2015	12.63%

I think my personal favorite of the 5 is MTSN. Despite lagging the leader, I believe it stands the best chance of hitting a 100% gain...........up 4% today.