Stock Picks

Quote: odiousgambit

in order to short funds with who I use, I have to set up credit and don't want to

so a 'short oil fund' would be a better thing then for me too. Plus, the whole business of shorting [the regular way] is tricky. To just pick something to take one shot , a stock that you *correctly* predict will be going down, is not good enough. You have to pick it and be right immediately, settling in 3 days I believe. Or just have a huge amount of money you can play with so you can short the stock over and over, taking losses as necessary before your crystal ball pays off.

So, yeah, I think you have the right idea

PS: which is not to say I am going to do this

yup, Im gambling on $40/barrel oil.

the consensus is that oil will rebound to $70/barrel by new years. the prediction is that one of the sides will cut production to make oil go up.

I'm betting neither OPEC nor US companies will blink in that time frame.

Quote: 100xOdds

the consensus is that oil will rebound to $70/barrel by new years. the prediction is that one of the sides will cut production to make oil go up.

I'm betting neither OPEC nor US companies will blink in that time frame.

I too think oil's 'real' price is $70 or so, but 70 at the most (oh I am such an expert! [not]) and the drop is being caused by over-reaction and, well, shorting.

You'll need to get out of that short fund quick if you think oil will be $70 by new years. I am picturing a slower climb back and of course can only guess where the bottom is going to be.

Quote: odiousgambit

I too think oil's 'real' price is $70 or so, but 70 at the most (oh I am such an expert! [not]) and the drop is being caused by over-reaction and, well, shorting.

You'll need to get out of that short fund quick if you think oil will be $70 by new years. I am picturing a slower climb back and of course can only guess where the bottom is going to be.

Down another buck or two today. Never seen a bear run like this in memory. I don't like to make predictions (nobody can predict anything!), but I would say we are more likely to see $40 than $70 by New Year's.

oil went up a few % yesterday then went back down to breakeven.
it's still breakeven in pre-market.

have we reached bottom?

Quote: steeldco

I added to YNDX today as mentioned earlier. The below are the current open, and closed, positions.

Open Positions:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
CKSW	7.4	8.04	($648.00)	-8.05%	-3.59%
EGHT	8.16	7.28	$872.00	11.96%	22.06%
NVIV	1.03	0.93	$792.00	10.63%	29.40%
SIMG	7.33	4.61	$4,072.00	58.82%	30.58%
SVA	4.97	3.72	$2,679.50	33.47%	20.33%
TRIB	17.1	16.97	$57.00	0.67%	16.33%
YNDX	20.11	25.815	($2,868.50)	-22.20%
Total			$4,956.00	8.39%

Closed Positions:

Symbol	Time & Price	Price	Shares	Mkt Value	Price Paid	Cost	Gain & % Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
Purchased	9/23/2012
OPTR	23-Oct	$12.78	571	$7,297.38	$14.00	$7,994.00	($704.62)	-8.71%	-7.94%
Purchased	7/3/2013
CCIH	6-Dec	$8.74	2,025	$17,698.50	$3.95	$7,998.75	$9,699.75	121.27%	279.84%
						$15,992.75	$8,995.13

SIMG was clobbered today.....and rightfully so based upon what I read. I will probably be looking to exit with my miniscule remaining profit on this one.

Below is my once a month update on the results of my monthly stock screens since I applied a filter to remove those that I considered to be in slow moving industries. Have to like the results so far.......a near doubling of the S&P 500 performance! I will post this month's screen in a bit.

Summary	S&P $ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Stk Screen $ Invested	$ Gain (Loss)	% Gain
Screen Run of 07/19/14:	$1,978.22	92.43	4.67%	$129.91	19.09	14.69%
Screen Run of 08/16/14:	$1,955.06	115.59	5.91%	$589.45	38.04	6.45%
Screen Run of 09/20/14:	$2,010.40	60.25	3.00%	$231.44	17.36	7.50%
Screen Run of 11/09/14:	$2,031.92	38.73	1.91%	$459.00	15.78	3.44%
Total	$7,975.60	$307.00	3.85%	$1,409.80	$90.27	6.40%

Symbol	Name	Purchase	Current	Change	% Change
AAOI	APPLIED OPTOELE	10.64	10.64	0	0
ANAD	ANADIGICS CORP	0.76	0.76	0	0
ASPS	ALTISOURCE PORT	47.54	47.54	0	0
BRDR	BORDERFREE INC	8.47	8.47	0	0
CALX	CALIX INC	10.15	10.15	0	0
CEMI	CHEMBIO DIAGNOS	3.85	3.85	0	0
CRAY	CRAY INC	35.16	35.16	0	0
CTRL	CONTROL4 CORP	14.52	14.52	0	0
DDXS	DIADEXUS INC	0.35	0.35	0	0
EJ	E-HOUSE CHINA	7.7	7.7	0	0
EMES	EMERGE ENRG SVC	57.48	57.48	0	0
FIVN	FIVE9 INC	4.5	4.5	0	0
HIL	HILL INTL INC	3.7	3.7	0	0
HIVE	AEROHIVE NETWRK	4.84	4.84	0	0
MDCO	MEDICINES CO	27.31	27.31	0	0
MEI	METHODE ELECT-A	34.92	34.92	0	0
MXL	MAXLINEAR INC-A	7.4	7.4	0	0
NPTN	NEOPHOTONICS CP	3.78	3.78	0	0
PKT	PROCERA NETWRKS	7.32	7.32	0	0
POWR	POWERSECURE INT	11.03	11.03	0	0
QTWW	QUANTUM FUEL SY	2.45	2.45	0	0
RNET	RIGNET INC	39.61	39.61	0	0
SFLY	SHUTTERFLY INC	42.46	42.46	0	0
SOHU	SOHU.COM INC	52.77	52.77	0	0
SPRT	SUPPORT.COM INC	2.05	2.05	0	0
VSAT	VIASAT INC	62.83	62.83	0	0
YUME	YUME INC	5.11	5.11	0	0
	Total	508.7	508.7	0	0

BTW, luvin' the rumors out about NVIV's first patient.

Quote: steeldco

BTW, luvin' the rumors out about NVIV's first patient.

Just as a test of whether my crystal balls are clear.........I predict.......a huge bump up for NVIV tomorrow.
Whether it holds, or not, is an entirely different matter.

Quote: steeldco

BTW, luvin' the rumors out about NVIV's first patient.

Boy, if this video isn't somehow fake........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIKden24ErU

I don't have a specific reply to make except to introduce myself. I've been lurking/stalking this site for long enough.

I returned to the Midwest in 2009 after 22 years in Scottsdale, AZ. I was in the investment business and supervised 35+ stock brokers and had an 11% interest in a firm at one time. I've seen a lot - some of it not so good. I left that industry in 2007 but still direct a handful of portfolios for clients privately. The last recommendation I made to my ex-wife was to move 75% of her plan assets to cash/stable-value funds. A year later, it proved a good move.

I care greatly that people do well with their money, especially in the capital markets.

My two children are still in Arizona and I miss the SW sometimes. The metro/Valley population went from 1.5M to 4.5M in my time there - that part I do not miss. I got news on Christmas day that the oldest and her husband are expecting their first. I thought my son would be the first to drop that bomb (- in whatever circumstance?!?... seems he has more sense than I give him credit for...).

I play craps and Hold 'Em - pretty much abandoned Blackjack in the early '90's when an 80 year-old fishing buddy turned me on to craps. He always said - "You NEVER see old farts jumping up and down at a Blackjack table, but you will at a craps table!" I saw his point immediately and have been bored with 21 ever since. Bill is long gone now, but as a retired Motorola engineer he taught me a good deal of practicality.. a methodical approach. I met Bill while flyfishing in eastern Arizona in 1991. He and his wife retired to LV before the corporations moved in and buffets got unreasonably expensive.

The last time I was in Vegas was April 2007. Boy has it changed - even more, I'm now learning. Last time there, construction was heading toward a stand-still. I used to go up every 4-5 weeks. There are a few casinos within 100 or so miles of me now but they're nothing like what I experienced in LV, Laughlin and Tahoe.

At any rate, I'll look in here from time to time to place a finger on the pulse of your thoughts and opinions. I might even offer one or two of my own from time to time. Re: USO, oil, etc. - I'm seeing something interesting in the charts this past week. It hasn't been pretty for a while, that's for sure, except for equities in the broader market. Same goes for Ag-related names, and milk in particular. Lots of supply out there.


Best to all,
Mark

Quote: mdhovland

I left that industry in 2007...The last time I was in Vegas was April 2007

Boy, you know when to get out and what to do! LOL

Welcome and feel free to weigh in at another thread,

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/20631-what-are-your-investing-thoughts/

Quote: mdhovland

I might even offer one or two of my own from time to time. Re: USO, oil, etc. - I'm seeing something interesting in the charts this past week. It hasn't been pretty for a while, that's for sure, except for equities in the broader market.

so I heard on the news that, despite the bounce on Fri, oil will go lower near term because of Capital Markets. supply/demand issues is a smaller factor.
What do they mean capital markets? and how is that driving the price of oil more than supply/demand??

Quote: 100xOdds

so I heard on the news that, despite the bounce on Fri, oil will go lower near term because of Capital Markets. supply/demand issues is a smaller factor.
What do they mean capital markets? and how is that driving the price of oil more than supply/demand??

might be mumbo-jumbo, except think how the housing market was affected by speculators in the run up to the Great Recession. It can be a real thing. In this case, though, speculation would be causing a downward push ...

Results of previous screens are below. Outperforming in an up market and getting clobbered when market heads down?

Summary	S&P $ Invested	$ Gain	% Gain	Stk Screen $ Invested	$ Gain (Loss)	% Gain
Screen Run of 07/19/14:	$1,978.22	41.20	2.08%	$129.91	14.91	11.48%
Screen Run of 08/16/14:	$1,955.06	64.36	3.29%	$589.45	15.73	2.67%
Screen Run of 09/20/14:	$2,010.40	9.02	0.45%	$231.44	9.77	4.22%
Screen Run of 11/09/14:	$2,031.92	(12.50)	-0.62%	$459.00	(11.22)	-2.44%
Screen Run of 12/20/14:	$2,070.65	(51.23)	-2.47%	$508.35	(41.04)	-8.07%
Total	$7,975.60	$102.08	1.28%	$1,409.80	($11.85)	-0.84%

This month's screen run:

Company Name	Ticker	Last Close
APPLIED OPTOELE	AAOI	$8.59
ANADIGICS CORP	ANAD	$0.93
ARUBA NETWORKS	ARUN	$16.90
BLUCORA INC	BCOR	$13.24
BORDERFREE INC	BRDR	$6.95
CALAMP CORP	CAMP	$16.57
CRAY INC	CRAY	$33.52
DIADEXUS INC	DDXS	$0.59
FIVE9 INC	FIVN	$4.33
AEROHIVE NETWRK	HIVE	$4.49
MEDICINES CO	MDCO	$25.08
METHODE ELECT-A	MEI	$36.28
MAXLINEAR INC-A	MXL	$8.08
PERFORMANT FINL	PFMT	$5.80
PROCERA NETWRKS	PKT	$8.01
QUANTUM FUEL SY	QTWW	$2.28
RENEWABLE ENERG	REGI	$9.07
RUCKUS WIRELESS	RKUS	$9.36
RIGNET INC	RNET	$36.14
SHUTTERFLY INC	SFLY	$43.01
SUPER MICRO COM	SMCI	$35.07
SOHU.COM INC	SOHU	$49.94
SPARTON CORP	SPA	$26.53
SUPPORT.COM INC	SPRT	$1.97
SYNAPTICS INC	SYNA	$60.25
TANGOE INC	TNGO	$11.86
VIASAT INC	VSAT	$56.37
VIVUS INC	VVUS	$2.88
XCERRA CORP	XCRA	$8.27
YUME INC	YUME	$5.20
Total		$547.56

Update of WOV portfolio picks:

Current Holdings:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
CKSW	7.15	8.04	($898.00)	-11.17%	-4.75%
EGHT	9.13	7.28	$1,842.00	25.30%	38.92%
NVIV	1.47	0.93	$4,312.00	57.96%	34.16%
SIMG	5.89	4.61	$1,912.00	27.65%	13.60%
SVA	4.83	3.72	$2,378.50	29.74%	16.94%
TRIB	18.38	16.97	$697.00	8.21%	55.47%
YNDX	17.97	25.815	($3,938.50)	-30.51%
Total			$6,305.00	10.67%

Closed Positions:

Symbol	Time & Price	Price	Shares	Mkt Value	Price Paid	Cost	Gain & % Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
Purchased	9/23/2012
OPTR	23-Oct	$12.78	571	$7,297.38	$14.00	$7,994.00	($704.62)	-8.71%	-7.94%
Purchased	7/3/2013
CCIH	6-Dec	$8.74	2,025	$17,698.50	$3.95	$7,998.75	$9,699.75	121.27%	279.84%
						$15,992.75	$8,995.13

Odiousgambit,

Thanks for the welcome and the link to the other thread - I'll look at it over the remaining weekend.

Just to be fully disclosed, I was forced out of the investment industry in 2007 due to events at our firm which occurred in 2000. I was named as a co-defendant in a sizable claim by a client of the President of our firm (I was his supervisor - we can't supervise ourselves). No fault was found by an arbitration panel in San Francisco but a back-breaking joint and several award was made in favor of the client. From that point on, I decided I will remain a one-man show.

I also had a real estate service-related business which I sold in late 2006. It was just too easy to see that the RE market had reached a buying climax, so I divided it into two pieces and sold it (easily). I don't know why others could not see that coming. Home values had gone up 200% or more from the early '90s. I sold last home in October of 2005 for 270% more than I paid in late 1992. I've been leasing/renting ever since and am comfortable doing just that.


100xOdds,

Capital Markets are "money," anything related to equities, bonds, currencies, short-term paper, etc.

I do not know how they can impact oil prices outside of supply and demand. More buyers will push prices up, more sellers will press prices down. Near-term or not, demand and supply determine price. NEWS can influence price, but price reflects all that is known. Typically, someone is smarter. It's not me. I simply follow the smart money. In the end, it is all "speculation" - and that is not a bad word.

The "fundamentals" - on the other hand - can create supply or demand.


The "story" behind oil's price behavior is not new - Saudi lifted price support for the price of oil a long time ago. A plausible reason for this has been reported to be to pressure regional neighboring oil producing countries and create economic chaos (Russia, Iran, Egypt). Some have stated there is the same intention with regard to US oil/gas production (Frac-drilling) which is now feeling the hurt in the south, PA and ND. Simply stated, it is a price war and the Saudi's might think they can weather the storm.

Is this true? I don't know and I don't care. When it comes to making a decision to buy or sell, price usually leads me to a good story. I decided more than 20 years ago that trying to assimilate all these stories and act upon them in any rational manner was pure folly. Results were too unpredictable. I still follow these stories but not to the extent most investors AND PROFESSIONALS do. There is way too much information available.

I went another direction, one that was actually suited toward my intellectual bent - technical analysis. I believe that watching and acting upon price behavior of an item can improve decision-making and bottom-line investment results. Being able to identify supply and demand made my life and work much simpler and improved client account results. I firmly believe it is suicidal to ignore price even in the face of contradicting "news." I spend 80% of my time evaluating price data and far less than 20% of my time reading commentary.

I can only speak for my experience, but identifying risk allowed my book of 240+ clients to experience about half of the drawdowns in account net worth 2001-2002. By Q1 2003, they were profitable again. The current current I direct had a similar experience in 2008-2009.


Below, find a couple links; one for price action of crude oil and another for the breadth of the energy industry.

The third chart in the first link illustrates that oil was getting into trouble beginning in August-September of 2013. In 2014, price violated meaningful support at 92, and again at 91.

The second link, a Bullish Percent Index, shows the level of internal sponsorship over time for the energy sector names and depicts weakening demand/increasing supply in the 6th through 11th month of 2013:


Crude Oil

Energy BPI


This second chart, the index, illustrates that only 16% of the oil-related names in that space are controlled by demand but it's an improvement from well below 10%. Demand is returning to the group. The opposite is also true - 84% of the names are controlled by supply, but that's better than when 90%+ were under selling pressure.

(Buying oil names when this index is at 70, 80 or 90% is asking for trouble. At this current level, buying oil names has the risk of falling off a step-ladder rather than the roof of your house.)

Short-term news aside regarding oil, there may be at least a trading opportunity to the long side. One never knows, and that's why it is good to have plans in the event we are wrong. My safety nets include stop-losses, options and other strategies. Nothing exotic, but there are almost always 4-5 ways to mitigate risk and augment opportunity.


Best,
Mark

Quote: 100xOdds

so I heard on the news that, despite the bounce on Fri, oil will go lower near term because of Capital Markets. supply/demand issues is a smaller factor.
What do they mean capital markets? and how is that driving the price of oil more than supply/demand??

Nobody knows anything. There is really nothing coming up in the future that should serve to drive oil prices down, or push them back up. Nobody knows anything. THAT SAID, what Mark said is correct, there is more opportunity on the upside than on the downside. 95% confidence intervals that the EIA released show that it's extremely unlikely that WTI will go below $20, and it's very likely that it will go back to $60-$80. So you can take on some upside risk without too much downside.

T. Boone Pickens (you should listen to him, he's been around) is buying a ton of forward contracts. He's a fundamentals guy, knows the industry as well as anyone.

Also, people have said (and I agree with them), that the best way to gain exposure to the energy markets is not through a commodities index but through the stocks of the oil producing companies, or a basket of the stocks of such companies (XOP, XLE, etc.)

Quote: steeldco

Update of WOV portfolio picks:

Current Holdings:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
CKSW	7.15	8.04	($898.00)	-11.17%	-4.75%
EGHT	9.13	7.28	$1,842.00	25.30%	38.92%
NVIV	1.47	0.93	$4,312.00	57.96%	34.16%
SIMG	5.89	4.61	$1,912.00	27.65%	13.60%
SVA	4.83	3.72	$2,378.50	29.74%	16.94%
TRIB	18.38	16.97	$697.00	8.21%	55.47%
YNDX	17.97	25.815	($3,938.50)	-30.51%
Total			$6,305.00	10.67%

Closed Positions:

Symbol	Time & Price	Price	Shares	Mkt Value	Price Paid	Cost	Gain & % Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
Purchased	9/23/2012
OPTR	23-Oct	$12.78	571	$7,297.38	$14.00	$7,994.00	($704.62)	-8.71%	-7.94%
Purchased	7/3/2013
CCIH	6-Dec	$8.74	2,025	$17,698.50	$3.95	$7,998.75	$9,699.75	121.27%	279.84%
						$15,992.75	$8,995.13

I'll be adding FCEL to the portfolio here. A value pick.

Here is a brief profile:
FuelCell Energy, Inc., together its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed power generation. The company is also involved in the development, design, production, and sale of fuel cell products under the Direct FuelCell name. Its power plants electrochemically produce electricity and heat using various fuels, including natural gas, methanol, diesel, biogas, coal gas, coal mine methane, and propane. The company serves electric utilities, independent power producers, and governments; and education and healthcare, gas transmission, industrial and data centers, commercial and hospitality, oil production and refining, wastewater treatment, food and beverage, agriculture, and landfill gas sectors. It has an installed base and backlog of approximately 300 megawatts. The company operates in the United States, South Korea, England, Indonesia, Germany, Canada, and Spain. It has strategic alliances with POSCO Energy; The Fraunhofer Institute for Ceramic Technologies and Systems; and NRG Energy.

OK. In with 8,000 shares of FCEL at $1.13.

Updated Open Positions:

Symbol	Price Paid
CKSW	8.04
EGHT	7.28
FCEL	1.13
NVIV	0.93
SIMG	4.61
SVA	3.72
TRIB	16.97
YNDX	25.815
Total

EGHT has earnings reporting Thursday after the market closes. Could see a big move either way on this one, though it been moving up steadily.

Quote: steeldco

I'll be adding FCEL to the portfolio here. A value pick.

Looks like they have had a bad 12 months. If I may ask, why do you see this as a value pick?

Quote: Boz

Looks like they have had a bad 12 months. If I may ask, why do you see this as a value pick?

This explanation is one that a person has a difficult time with, including me, when I read it elsewhere. There are many, many different ways by which a company's value has been assessed. It seems like everyone has a different methodology. One of my favorite publications is Forbes (less so lately) and in there you will constantly see authors stating that it is trading below his valuation of "XXX". That's great but I may not agree with that valuation methodology and therefore it is useless. Anyway, I feel that FCEL's current value is $2.00. I adjust valuations every time earnings are reported, or when there is a significant news item that will impact it. Simply put, if FCEL reaches $2 before its next published financials then I will be out. If it doesn't reach $2 then I will re-calculate what I feel is fair value based upon the financials. More than likely the number moves higher, but not always.

Quote: Boz

EGHT has earnings reporting Thursday after the market closes. Could see a big move either way on this one, though it been moving up steadily.

Boz, you're right on EGHT. I am always concerned with holding into an earnings report since it just always seems like an issue pulls back (I know it's not really always....just seems that way). However, I see where Blackrock is holding around 10 million shares. I will take some solace in not being alone.....

Here's an excerpt out of the press today:

"Oil fell as much as 5 percent on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global economic forecast on lower fuel demand and key producer Iran hinted prices could drop to $25 a barrel without supportive OPEC action."

Really?? $25??? Wow!!

Quote: steeldco

Here's an excerpt out of the press today:

"Oil fell as much as 5 percent on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global economic forecast on lower fuel demand and key producer Iran hinted prices could drop to $25 a barrel without supportive OPEC action."

Really?? $25??? Wow!!

BTW, that was extracted from a Reuter's article.

Quote: steeldco

Here's an excerpt out of the press today:

"Oil fell as much as 5 percent on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 global economic forecast on lower fuel demand and key producer Iran hinted prices could drop to $25 a barrel without supportive OPEC action."

Really?? $25??? Wow!!

I've read that Saudi's breakeven is $35/barrel.
but Saudi has also said that they will not cut production even is oil is at $20/barrel. I don't understand this.

when oil is at $35/barrel, the US oil will already be crippled and shutting down.
why produce at a loss when at $35/barrel, you've accomplished your goal?

Quote: 100xOdds

I've read that Saudi's breakeven is $35/barrel.
but Saudi has also said that they will not cut production even is oil is at $20/barrel. I don't understand this.

when oil is at $35/barrel, the US oil will already be crippled and shutting down.
why produce at a loss when at $35/barrel, you've accomplished your goal?

I find this very, very interesting. First, I think the Saudi's are also employing some fear tactics.....i.e., you're losing a bunch at $35 and we think that it's going to $25....how are you going to survive? I would think that they feel that the bleeding needs to be sustained for a bit and not just be temporary.

However, what is the point of this unless the Saudis can live with $35-$40 for a very extended period? After all, if the prices rise again, the production will come back on line. I'm not sure that I get it.

Quote: steeldco

I find this very, very interesting. First, I think the Saudi's are also employing some fear tactics.....i.e., you're losing a bunch at $35 and we think that it's going to $25....how are you going to survive? I would think that they feel that the bleeding needs to be sustained for a bit and not just be temporary.

However, what is the point of this unless the Saudis can live with $35-$40 for a very extended period? After all, if the prices rise again, the production will come back on line. I'm not sure that I get it.

production will not come back in full. sure, existing oil rigs will fire back up.
but investors of shale oil will be shy to put $ there again.

the US oil boom was because of shale oil (think north dakoda) but their breakeven point is around $80/barrel.
at sustained $35/barrel, most of them will go bankrupt.
when oil prices rise again, the Saudi's don't have to worry about shale and capture their market share.

hm.. fear tactics.
so when oil goes below $40/barrel, you think the Saudi's will come up with an excuse to cut?

Quote: 100xOdds

production will not come back in full. sure, existing oil rigs will fire back up.
but investors of shale oil will be shy to put $ there again.

the US oil boom was because of shale oil (think north dakoda) but their breakeven point is around $80/barrel.
at sustained $35/barrel, most of them will go bankrupt.
when oil prices rise again, the Saudi's don't have to worry about shale and capture their market share.

hm.. fear tactics.
so when oil goes below $40/barrel, you think the Saudi's will come up with an excuse to cut?

I guess that we'll have to agree to disagree, as to whether production ramps again with higher pricing. I say that it has to.
As a matter of fact, I believe, in constant terms, that production costs may decrease for shale, and fracking, thereby lowering breakeven.
Those that go bankrupt in the process will be replaced by better operators with better equipment and a better process.

I refuse to believe that we are going to live in an era of cheap energy. I have always had an excess of energy stocks [sure helps get ya past all that "ooh Libya blah blah" "ooh Israel will bomb Iran blah blah" and "gee, gas is high these days" ]. I in fact have increased my shares somewhat in energy stocks.

If I am wrong, you can put it on my tombstone,

He Refused to Believe We Would Live in an Era of Cheap Energy

Quote: odiousgambit

I refuse to believe that we are going to live in an era of cheap energy. I have always had an excess of energy stocks [sure helps get ya past all that "ooh Libya blah blah" "ooh Israel will bomb Iran blah blah" and "gee, gas is high these days" ]. I in fact have increased my shares somewhat in energy stocks.

If I am wrong, you can put it on my tombstone,

He Refused to Believe We Would Live in an Era of Cheap Energy

I don't know since I'm far from an expert on oil, as witnessed by my never making any money on it or short it. However, I would have to think that in order for them to be able to drive it down to $25 then there absolutely has to be an imbalance between supply and demand. If an imbalance has been created to date, then it may not improve with most of the western world working on ways to use less of it and the developing nations at some point acquiring that same philosophy.

Quote: odiousgambit

I refuse to believe that we are going to live in an era of cheap energy. I have always had an excess of energy stocks [sure helps get ya past all that "ooh Libya blah blah" "ooh Israel will bomb Iran blah blah" and "gee, gas is high these days" ]. I in fact have increased my shares somewhat in energy stocks.

If I am wrong, you can put it on my tombstone,

He Refused to Believe We Would Live in an Era of Cheap Energy

um.. gasoline is now at most $1.99/gal in most places.
oil is free falling.
and natural gas dropped 7% today because of warmer weather forecasts.

party like it's 2009 :)

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit

I refuse to believe that we are going to live in an era of cheap energy. I have always had an excess of energy stocks [sure helps get ya past all that "ooh Libya blah blah" "ooh Israel will bomb Iran blah blah" and "gee, gas is high these days" ]. I in fact have increased my shares somewhat in energy stocks.

If I am wrong, you can put it on my tombstone,

He Refused to Believe We Would Live in an Era of Cheap Energy

um.. gasoline is now at most $1.99/gal in most places.
oil is free falling.
and natural gas dropped 7% today because of warmer weather forecasts.

party like it's 2009 :)

I think it's more like party like it's 1948 :-)

Year	Nominal Price	Inflation Adjusted Price
1946	$1.63	$19.41
1947	$2.16	$22.81
1948	$2.77	$27.21
1949	$2.77	$27.48
1950	$2.77	$27.19
1951	$2.77	$25.20
1952	$2.77	$24.64
1953	$2.92	$25.72
1954	$2.99	$26.30
1955	$2.93	$25.80
1956	$2.94	$25.56
1957	$3.14	$26.38
1958	$3.00	$24.55
1959	$3.00	$24.30
1960	$2.91	$23.26
1961	$2.85	$22.52
1962	$2.85	$22.25
1963	$2.91	$22.46
1964	$3.00	$22.84
1965	$3.01	$22.55
1966	$3.10	$22.56
1967	$3.12	$22.09
1968	$3.18	$21.56
1969	$3.32	$21.38
1970	$3.39	$20.63
1971	$3.60	$21.00
1972	$3.60	$20.33
1973	$4.75	$25.06
1974	$9.35	$44.71
1975	$12.21	$53.55
1976	$13.10	$54.37
1977	$14.40	$56.08
1978	$14.95	$54.16
1979	$25.10	$80.90
1980	$37.42	$107.37
1981	$35.75	$92.98
1982	$31.83	$77.95
1983	$29.08	$68.97
1984	$28.75	$65.37
1985	$26.92	$59.10
1986	$14.44	$31.10
1987	$17.75	$36.89
1988	$14.87	$29.73
1989	$18.33	$34.91
1990	$23.19	$41.79
1991	$20.20	$35.03
1992	$19.25	$32.40
1993	$16.75	$27.39
1994	$15.66	$24.94
1995	$16.75	$25.96
1996	$20.46	$30.79
1997	$18.64	$27.43
1998	$11.91	$17.26
1999	$16.56	$23.42
2000	$27.39	$37.55
2001	$23.00	$30.69
2002	$22.81	$29.92
2003	$27.69	$35.55
2004	$37.66	$47.05
2005	$50.04	$60.45
2006	$58.30	$68.28
2007	$64.20	$72.99
2008	$91.48	$100.01
2009	$53.48	$58.76
2010	$71.21	$77.11
2011	$87.04	$91.39
2012	$86.46	$88.95
2013	$91.17	$92.41
2014 (Nov)	$89.08	$89.08

My SWAG for sustainable, mid-term (5 years) oil price? $42....give or take 10%.....

3 month report is out this morning on NVIV's first patient......encouraging.

InVivo Therapeutics Holdings Corp. (NVIV) today announced a three-month update for the first subject in the company’s ongoing pilot trial of its investigational Neuro-Spinal Scaffold in subjects with acute spinal cord injury. The Neuro-Spinal Scaffold was implanted in the subject on October 14, 2014 at the Barrow Neurological Institute at St. Joseph’s Hospital and Medical Center in Phoenix, AZ by Dr. Nicholas Theodore, Chief of Spinal Surgery.

In the time between implantation and the 3-month post-injury assessment, there were no reported serious adverse events associated with the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold and the subject had progressed from a complete AIS A injury to an incomplete AIS C injury with motor, sensory, bowel, and bladder function improvements. Motor improvement from the pre-surgery assessment to the 3-month visit involved the return of active movement of the hip flexors against gravity (allowing for leg to chest motions) and palpable contractions of the knee extensors. Sensory improvement from the pre-surgery assessment to the 3-month visit involved the bilateral return of sensation to two dermatomes extending down the top of the subject’s legs and the S4-S5 dermatome. In addition, the International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) exam, the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM III) exam, and additional assessments of bowel and bladder function demonstrated that between hospital discharge and the 3-month visit, the subject has regained bowel function and improved bladder function.

Dr. Theodore said, “I am very pleased with the first subject’s progress since the scaffold was implanted. In my experience, this degree of sensory and motor improvement is unexpected. However, this is only one patient and we do not want to over-interpret the data.”

Mark Perrin, InVivo’s CEO, said, “We are impressed with the first subject’s progress to date since comparable spontaneous recovery occurs infrequently in patients with similar injuries. We look forward to continuing to evaluate the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold in this first subject and the remaining subjects planned for this study.”

whats up w/aligh's company, NTEK?

it's dropping huge today... -25%

Carl Icahn on oil........

"The price of oil (New York Mercantile Exchange: @CL.1) will go lower as supply and demand remain unbalanced, activist investor Carl Icahn said Thursday. Icahn, who spoke with CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report," said that Saudi Arabia's decision not to cut oil production blindsided the global market, and that he expects the commodity's price will keep sliding. "I think [oil's price] will continue to go down unless there is some outside event," Icahn said. Read More Oil fields at risk: Where the slowdown has begun Still, he said he sees a "tremendous opportunity" for when oil eventually rises again-but he admitted that nobody knows when that will happen. "I wouldn't rush in now on oil, and that's talking against myself because I own a lot of oil stocks," he added. Icahn did allow, however, that "there will be increased demand for oil over the years," and easily obtainable resources are dwindling, so companies engaged in offshore production will continue to gain importance. Icahn is one of the largest shareholders in drilling firm Transocean (RIG). Icahn also revealed that he had shorted the euro/dollar trade"

Excerpted from CNBC press release.

One of the stocks talked about here before is dropping: EGHT. Be altered for time to buy.

Quote: UCivan

One of the stocks talked about here before is dropping: EGHT. Be altered for time to buy.

They hit expected numbers yesterday but took a hit. I assume someone was expecting them to beat them.

Quote: Boz

They hit expected numbers yesterday but took a hit. I assume someone was expecting them to beat them.

Somewhat strange action, although it seems to be the norm to fall even if you meet estimates. I think that perception creates the reality, particularly with day traders. Since I think it was an OK report......nothing more.....nothing less, I would think that we'll recover.

I see that they celebrated having obtained their 100th. patent. It seems that over the years they have been obtaining patents on this or that. I often wonder what, if anything all of these patents might be worth. Is there a hidden asset, or assets, here since the only intangibles on the balance sheet amount to a paltry $13 million. I truly don't know and wouldn't factor this into a valuation of this company, but it'd be nice to be able to get a feel for it. Maybe someone here can comment on patents and future values?

Quote: steeldco

OK. In with 8,000 shares of FCEL at $1.13.

Updated Open Positions:

Symbol	Price Paid
CKSW	8.04
EGHT	7.28
FCEL	1.13
NVIV	0.93
SIMG	4.61
SVA	3.72
TRIB	16.97
YNDX	25.815
Total

Nice gain today on FCEL. I assume related to OPEC thinking that oil prices may have bottomed here. They may just be trying to talk up the price. Dunno. We'll see.

SIMG has agreed to be bought out. I got out today. It has been a bit of a disappointment and I'm happy that someone stepped up to buy it.

Current Open Positions:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	Gain	% Gain
CKSW	7.14	8.04	($908.00)	-11.28%
EGHT	7.89	7.28	$602.00	8.26%
FCEL	1.36	1.13	$1,830.00	20.22%
NVIV	2.04	0.93	$8,872.00	119.12%
SVA	4.8301	3.72	$2,378.72	29.71%
TRIB	19.8	16.97	$1,407.00	16.57%
YNDX	16.22	25.815	($4,813.50)	-37.25%
Total			$9,368.22	24.78%

Closed Positions:

Symbol	Time & Price	Price	Shares	Mkt Value	Price Paid	Cost	Gain & % Gain	% Gain	Annualized Gain
OPTR	23-Oct	$12.78	571	$7,297.38	$14.00	$7,994.00	($704.62)	-8.71%	-7.94%
CCIH	6-Dec	$8.74	2,025	$17,698.50	$3.95	$7,998.75	$9,699.75	121.27%	#REF!
SIMG	27-Jan	$7.26	1,500	$10,890.00	$4.61	$6,915.00	$3,975.00	57.48%	27.96%
						$15,992.75	$8,995.13	56.25%

Selling TRIB today. Do not like the way it is acting in an up market.

Sold out of TRIB yesterday. Buying RKUS today.

Current Open Positions:

Symbol	Price	Price Paid	SHARES	Gain	% Gain
CKSW	8.10	8.04	1,000	$59.90	0.75%
EGHT	7.95	7.28	1,000	$670.00	9.20%
FCEL	1.32	1.13	8,000	$1,480.00	16.37%
NVIV	2.16	0.93	8,000	$9,840.00	132.26%
RKUS	10.70	10.39	700	$217.00	2.98%
SVA	5.00	3.72	2,150	$2,752.00	34.41%
YNDX	16.45	25.815	500	($4,682.50)	-36.28%
Total				$10,336.40	17.23%

Closed Positions:

Symbol	Time & Price	Price	Shares	Mkt Value	Price Paid	Cost	Gain & % Gain	% Gain
OPTR	23-Oct	$12.78	571	$7,297.38	$14.00	$7,994.00	($704.62)	-8.71%
CCIH	6-Dec	$8.74	2,025	$17,698.50	$3.95	$7,998.75	$9,699.75	121.27%
SIMG	27-Jan	$7.26	1,500	$10,890.00	$4.61	$6,915.00	$3,975.00	57.48%
TRIB	10-Feb	$17.53	500	$8,765.00	$16.97	$8,485.00	$280.00	3.30%
						$31,392.75	$13,250.13	42.21%

I don't know if any of you still hold any NTEK, but I see they just bought a shell company and are going to spin off Nanotech Gaming and try and list it on the pink sheets.

I hope it all works out well for AHigh, but it just looks like a money grab to me.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showNewsReleaseDocumentById.pdf?id=13457