1 big bet (ie: $5000): Which game?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10450-dpx3-or-dp-dc-dc/3/#post162490
"go big or go home"
that got me thinking about which game to put $5000 on in 1 bet?
Craps?
$5 Dont Pass, $5000 odds
(ok, $5005)
slightly lower house edge than Passline, and less chances of you going home broke (but paid less because less risk than Passline).
i like the less chances of going home broke in addition to lower house edge. win/win?
Which game would you choose for 1 big bet?
edit (to clarify):
if it's a tie/push, bet again.
in craps, if a 7,11,2,3,12 rolls, bet again
Quote: buzzpaffAll $5.000 head to head BJ is by far the best bet under those circumstances.
If it is your last $5000, you do not want to place it all on one hand at blackjack. I would put 1/3 on a single hand saving 2/3's for doubledown and/or split opportunities. If you do not have funds to make your very advantageous doubledown and split opportunities, you are giving away a big advantage and your initial disadvantage is far greater than the 1% range that you think it is.
One big bet. One time?Quote: 100xOddsThread about max variance for best chances of being ahead of the casino:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10450-dpx3-or-dp-dc-dc/3/#post162490
"go big or go home"
that got me thinking about which game to put $5000 on in 1 bet?
Craps?
$5 Dont Pass, $5000 odds
(ok, $5005)
Variance has nothing to do about just one bet.
You need the highest win probability of winning something.
You also do not mention how much the bet can win.
You did not say double or nothing.
That would leave one to think, one resolved bet, win something or go home.
Your example: You may make one bet but not for $5k
What happens on the first roll of a winner 7?
Now you only have $4,995 left.
or a 3 craps.
You now won $5 on one bet.
Are you going to bet again? That is 2 bets?
You need to be more specific as to what your rules or goals are.
For just one bet, one lifetime bet, one shot only...
Must make a bet that has the highest winning probability.
Not BJ or Roulette.
BJ, you may push. Can you bet again? More than one bet?
Looking for something that wins more than 50% for just one bet.
Lay 4 or Lay 10 has 6 ways to win and only 3 to lose.
66 2/3% chance of winning
Lay 5 or 9
60% chance of winning
Lay 6 or 8
6/11 chance of winning (54.55%)
Banker Bet in Baccarat, play until win or lose is about 50.6825%
chance to win $5000 -5% commission (net of $4,750)
those would be my bets in order to make a one time $5k bet.
I will tell you what I would do, and my answer to a similar thread was DP at Craps Laying Odds, but I'm changing that answer.
What is the one game in the casino where you can take money away in an unfavorable situation?
Let It Ride!
(Just make sure to get special rules eliminating the maximum payout.)
You're going to put down $1,666, $1,666 and $1,666 (because you can't bet change). Further, you're also not going to play according to perfect Let It Ride strategy because the long-term EV is irrelevant. You're just trying to profit.
The beauty of this kind of play is that you have a chance for a HUGE win (even compared to Craps and especially Blackjack) and you don't even necessarily have to lose all of your money!
This would be the strategy I would use:
3rd Bet:
Made Hand Only
10, 10, x
J, J, x
Q, Q, x
K, K, x
A, A, x
y, y, y (Assuming all y's are the same value)
2nd Bet
Probability of Winning 50%+ or Made Hand
10, 10, x, x
J, J, x, x
Q, Q, x, x
K, K, x, x,
A, A, x, x
y, y, y, x (Assuming all y's are the same value)
10, J, Q, K (suited)---Nine Cards Make Flush/Straight-Flush, Twelve Make High Pair, Six Make Straight (Can't double-count Flush Cards)
27/48 = 56.25% to win
J, Q, K, A (suited)---Nine Flush/Royal, Twelve Pair, Three Straight
24/48 = 50% to win...good enough for chance of big payday
9, 10, J, Q, (Suited)---Nine Flush/Straight Flush, Nine Pair, Six Straight (Can't Double-Count Flush Cards)
24/48 = 50% to win
If the third bet stays in, you win $4998, minimum. If the second bet stays in, you win $3332, minimum.
If the second bet stays in on a non-made hand, you walk away with $1,666, minimum.
If the second and third bets are both taken back, you walk away with $3,332, minimum.
***If you wanted to play it really safe, you could take back anything UNLESS you already have a made hand in all situations.
Now that the Riv has 1000x, taking or laying odds becomes a viable option.
Quote: 100xOddsThread about max variance for best chances of being ahead of the casino:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10450-dpx3-or-dp-dc-dc/3/#post162490
"go big or go home"
that got me thinking about which game to put $5000 on in 1 bet?
Craps?
$5 Dont Pass, $5000 odds
(ok, $5005)
slightly lower house edge than Passline, and less chances of you going home broke (but paid less because less risk than Passline).
i like the less chances of going home broke in addition to lower house edge. win/win?
Which game would you choose for 1 big bet?
Head's Up against the dealer in Pai Gow Poker: if you push the first hand, take the bank the second hand for the full amount...
I know banker would be a lower house edge (and hell, I should just be playing BJ and sticking to my count system), but sometimes you feel like doing something crazy...
Why? although you may only be paid $2500, you are less likely to lose the bet outright.
If that has no appeal, wait out a point of 6 or 8 and do the same as a right bettor. In that case you give up something near a 50-50 chance to win outright, but get paid out better than even. I wouldnt go for other points established, so now you have to take *more* extra money in case you have to wait for that.
The Wizard may be right. Just put on a jacket and plunk it down on Banker in Bac in a high roller section.
Quote: odiousgambitThe Wizard may be right. Just put on a jacket and plunk it down on Banker in Bac in a high roller section.
Why?
link to that thread?
Quote: odiousgambitThe Wizard may be right. Just put on a jacket and plunk it down on Banker in Bac in a high roller section.
If it wins, don't keep playing. could get into real trouble if you blow you roll and still owe the house hundreds of $$$ in commission...
silly
Sally
Quote: 100xOddsWhy?
link to that thread?
took a while to find this!
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/roulette/
about half-way down the page:
The FAQ:There is a story today about a British man who will bet his life savings on one roulette roll. My friend and I have been debating about what the best casino bet is for this type of wager. If you can only place one bet, and you wish to maximize your odds, what is the best game to play and what is the best bet?
— Anonymous
Quote: WoO replyFirst, let me say this guy was a fool. He bet $138,000 on a normal American roulette wheel which has two zeros and a house edge of 5.26%. This amounted to an expected loss of $7,263. However had he taken a 10 minute ride to the Bellagio, Mirage, or Aladdin he could have made the bet on a single zero wheel which follows the European rule of giving half an even money bet back if the ball lands in zero. He planned to make an even money bet anyway. So, at these wheels with full European rules his house edge would have been only 1.35%, for an expected loss of only $1865.
To answer your question, if forced to make just one even money type bet I would have chosen the banker bet in baccarat with a house edge of 1.06%.
PS: Somewhere else the Wizard elaborates on this, but I'm not sure I could find it. A factor is the requirement that it be just one bet.
PPS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
Threads like these are the reason why I can only get a Let It Ride table between 11:00-11:01a.m. on the third Thursday of every month if it is not raining, the temperature is less than seventy degrees, the Moon and Venus are perfectly aligned AND the dealer is left-handed.
Seriously, that Table is always closed. It opens at 11:00a.m., and I have heard that if you inquire about it at 11:15a.m., they will say, "Sorry, we closed down Let It Ride, nobody was playing!"
Quote: bigfoot66We all forgot the right answer.... FREE BET BJ at the Golden Nugget!!!!!
As an exciting alternative to an even-money game, this is absolutely a great option to have a small house edge game with the ability to earn multiples of your original bet! I'm not a Black Jack player, but when I do play it, I tend to go higher-limit and it many times comes down to that one hand that has the multiple splits and doubles that either wipes me out or makes my day. I would be curious to know in Free Bet Black Jack what percentages you would:
1. Lose
2. Push
3. Win 1 Unit
4. Win 1.5 Units
5. Win 2 Units
...
6. Win X Units
Honestly, especially to the carnival game players out there, it may not be a bad way to market the game.
Quote: Mission146Seriously, that Table is always closed. It opens at 11:00a.m., and I have heard that if you inquire about it at 11:15a.m., they will say, "Sorry, we closed down Let It Ride, nobody was playing!"
If you pay attention, you'll notice they actually call the game "Let it Die." :P
I've never played it, except in online sims. I've been tempted, but then I remind msyelf it's like slow VP with a bigger house edge. So whenever I'm tempted, I look for a good VP machine.
Quote: odiousgambittook a while to find this!
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/roulette/
about half-way down the page:
The FAQ:There is a story today about a British man who will bet his life savings on one roulette roll. My friend and I have been debating about what the best casino bet is for this type of wager. If you can only place one bet, and you wish to maximize your odds, what is the best game to play and what is the best bet?
— Anonymous
PS: Somewhere else the Wizard elaborates on this, but I'm not sure I could find it. A factor is the requirement that it be just one bet.
PPS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
To The Wizard: Curious, with the introduction of FreeBet BJ, would you still choose Baccarat or do the FB BJ play, as it can essentially be played as an even-money type bet?
Banker bet (50.32%) is best, but you will win $4761.
PaiGow Poker (48.89%) is 2nd best I believe, and again, pays $4761. Agreed, if you push, bank. Use the Wiz's 2-pair strategy. If the Dealer throws the House Way token on your banker bet call the floor, ask for an exception.(But, know how to play the hands!)
BlackJack (about 46-47.5% depending on exact rules) has the DD/SPL risk meaning 1/2 Wager. For 5G's you will find a 6D S17 DA2 Split4 RSA LS (-0.285%)
Whatever
Quote: NareedIf you pay attention, you'll notice they actually call the game "Let it Die." :P
I've never played it, except in online sims. I've been tempted, but then I remind msyelf it's like slow VP with a bigger house edge. So whenever I'm tempted, I look for a good VP machine.
Your point is unassailable in terms of EV on a $1000/credit Max five credits machine with the right paytable. I just don't think EV is an appropriate measure for a one-hand proposition. I think that you basically have to look at the probabilities and expectations of a one game proposition. I just think Let It Ride is a good proposition in this case because, playing safest strategy, the most you can even possibly lose is $1,666. With everything else, it's either -5k or win something.
Quote: Mission146Your point is unassailable in terms of EV on a $1000/credit Max five credits machine with the right paytable. I just don't think EV is an appropriate measure for a one-hand proposition. I think that you basically have to look at the probabilities and expectations of a one game proposition. I just think Let It Ride is a good proposition in this case because, playing safest strategy, the most you can even possibly lose is $1,666. With everything else, it's either -5k or win something.
Right- and not to go off-topic, but you illustrate one issue I have when people only use EV when making gambling decisions: how to also take into account risk-of-ruin in the short-term. Just going by positive EV without the bankroll or time will get you killed...
Quote: TheBigPaybakRight- and not to go off-topic, but you illustrate one issue I have when people only use EV when making gambling decisions: how to also take into account risk-of-ruin in the short-term. Just going by positive EV without the bankroll or time will get you killed...
That's not off-topic at all, but rather that is exactly the topic. I'm looking at this play vs. a Don't Pass/Lay in Craps, and what is occurring to me is that you are making a conditional bet (the lay) that is over 50% to win, but the payoff is actually going to be less than the amount bet. I like the bet from a probabiity standpoint, but I don't like putting up 5k on a once in a lifetime bet to win x<$5,000.
If you get dealt a high pair in three cards at Let it Ride, you let 'em ride and you profit $15,000, minimum. It's true that the probability of that (and of any other win) is lesser than what you would get with just about any other game in the casino, but the one-time reward is fitting of the one-time risk, which technically, need be no greater than $1,666.
The only thing that might stink about Let It Ride is that you could very well find yourself needing running cards if the three initial cards are low. The entire game can also be over after four cards if all four are low and there are no straight/flush possibilities, but that comes with limiting the exposure of your 5k.
Quote: Mission146If you get dealt a high pair in three cards at Let it Ride, you let 'em ride and you profit $15,000, minimum.
Quick question: as one who doesn't frequent Vegas too often, are there numerous high-limit carnival games? At the casinos I frequent, carnival games many times seem to have limits of $100 or maybe $200- and many times less- not providing the opportunity such as you describe. I think the highest I've seen on certain carnival games may have been $500 in AC a while back.
Is it easy to find a $1k 3-Card or Let It Ride table in Vegas?
Quote: Mission146
If you get dealt a high pair in three cards at Let it Ride, you let 'em ride and you profit $15,000, minimum. [/q
I'm not a Let-it-Ride player, but I'm not getting my head around profit of $15,000 minimum on a high pair - if it doesn't improve from the community cards doesn't a pair pay at 1:1? Or do I not correctly understand the payout?
Quote: chickenmanQuote: Mission146
If you get dealt a high pair in three cards at Let it Ride, you let 'em ride and you profit $15,000, minimum. [/q
I'm not a Let-it-Ride player, but I'm not getting my head around profit of $15,000 minimum on a high pair - if it doesn't improve from the community cards doesn't a pair pay at 1:1? Or do I not correctly understand the payout?
It looks as though Mission146 has $5000 on each spot, which would pay 1:1 giving $5000 on each spot times 3 = $15000.00Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
Quote: bushmanQuote: chickenman
It looks as though Mission146 has $5000 on each spot, which would pay 1:1 giving $5000 on each spot times 3 = $15000.00
Ah, since he says the loss is limited to $1,666 I took it the $5,000 was spread across the spots.
Quote: TheBigPaybakQuick question: as one who doesn't frequent Vegas too often, are there numerous high-limit carnival games? At the casinos I frequent, carnival games many times seem to have limits of $100 or maybe $200- and many times less- not providing the opportunity such as you describe. I think the highest I've seen on certain carnival games may have been $500 in AC a while back.
Is it easy to find a $1k 3-Card or Let It Ride table in Vegas?
I have never seen one, but then again I have never gone looking for one! There was a guy betting the $500 max in AC when I was there two years ago, and when he was dealt a high pair and pulled a set they'd stop play and check the cards. He was getting dealt hands frequently and was pretty loud.
As much as I enjoy Let It Ride as a more social but poorer paying version of video poker, I wouldn't count on it as a money-maker. In video poker you can discard and draw to a better hand. In Let It Ride you're stuck with the five cards you get. Maybe you can decrease your bet, but there is no way to improve your hand through skill.
Quote: FarFromVegasI have never seen one, but then again I have never gone looking for one! There was a guy betting the $500 max in AC when I was there two years ago, and when he was dealt a high pair and pulled a set they'd stop play and check the cards. He was getting dealt hands frequently and was pretty loud.
As much as I enjoy Let It Ride as a more social but poorer paying version of video poker, I wouldn't count on it as a money-maker. In video poker you can discard and draw to a better hand. In Let It Ride you're stuck with the five cards you get. Maybe you can decrease your bet, but there is no way to improve your hand through skill.
I take the philosophy of generally betting bigger when playing carnival games: I'll either win or get killed, but it will be quick, and I'll avoid the inevitable grind that wear down other players. And it's entertaining that way, at least to me.
Yes, I think $500 is the max so far that I recall, too.
Quote: chickenmanQuote: bushman
Ah, since he says the loss is limited to $1,666 I took it the $5,000 was spread across the spots.
Yes, I noticed that loss limit as well, but then I am stumped at the $15K profit. Perhaps he will weigh in.Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
Actually, you'll see that I later said I don't want to put up $5,000 on something that will get me less than $5,000. I'm fairly confident that I just screwed up and typed, "1," before $5,000. I should definitely reread before posting, though.
Quote: TheBigPaybakQuick question: as one who doesn't frequent Vegas too often, are there numerous high-limit carnival games? At the casinos I frequent, carnival games many times seem to have limits of $100 or maybe $200- and many times less- not providing the opportunity such as you describe. I think the highest I've seen on certain carnival games may have been $500 in AC a while back.
Is it easy to find a $1k 3-Card or Let It Ride table in Vegas?
I've never been to Vegas, either. I think the biggest problem you would have at some places is to get rid of the maximum payout limit. If you play, "Safest strategy," and hit for the Royal, for example, that's going to be $1,666,000 on the $1,666 you still have out. I don't think you'd have much trouble getting them to let you bet up to $5,000, though.
I know the casino here runs $5.00 minimum and $500 maximum, so you're only asking them to quadruple the maximum, (IOW, I don't think they'd make the maximum $1,666, probably $2,000) I'm fairly confident that $500 is per bet, at least, it better be because I know the $5.00 sure as Hell is!!!
I think the hardest part would be getting them to call off the Max payout, but if you're asking for $2000/Bet, I don't see them having a problem with that. It would probably be advisable to refrain from mentioning that you're only making one bet!
Quote: Mission146I'm sorry, I screwed up my post. I was basing the pay on $1,666/Bet on three bets and then the loss at $1,666/bet. It was just simple inattentiveness to what I was posting. I meant to say that if you get dealt a high pair inside you get paid $5000, minimum, technically $4,998, but you get the point.
Actually, you'll see that I later said I don't want to put up $5,000 on something that will get me less than $5,000. I'm fairly confident that I just screwed up and typed, "1," before $5,000. I should definitely reread before posting, though.
No worries. I think we all figured it was a typo or something of that nature. It's all good. Ahh, to have that opportunity to put $5K on any one bet. Dreaming.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/2297-if-you-had-to-make-one-big-bet-what-would-you-bet-on/
if it's a tie/push, bet again.
in craps, if a 7,11,2,3,12 rolls, bet again
so with this update, is Banker in Baccarat still the best choice?
if so, why not Dont Pass in Craps w/~1000x odds?
(Also updated OP w/clarification)
edit:
hm.. Free Blackjack has a house edge of .42%
https://wizardofodds.com/games/free-bet-blackjack/
Quote: Mission146Your point is unassailable in terms of EV on a $1000/credit Max five credits machine with the right paytable. I just don't think EV is an appropriate measure for a one-hand proposition.
Oh, I wasn't thinking about the one bet thing. I was just denigrating Let It Ride on principle. The prinicple of making a fool out of myself in public, of course ;)
There's nothing wrong with playing a game you like even if it has a bad HE, so long a syou know the edge and are willing to pay for it. So I shouldn't make fun of what other people play.
