DPx3 or DP + DC + DC

Up in Vegas a week ago, and I did fairly well playing craps. I played the Don't, would buy in for $200 ($5 table), and cash out with winnings between $50 and $100 ($250 to $300 walk away). Did this 7 times. One other time, lost the $200. The 7 winners were hit and runs, never more than 45 minutes at the table, which meant less "fun" time at the table.

Anyway, I was playing 3-4-5 odds, which is nice because it always means a bet of $5+$30. Easy to remember. I typically made 1 DP, then 2 DCs, then wait for the inevitable 7-out. (Incidentally, I usually watched a table with a hot shooter, then jumped in when the hot shooter sevened out. I know it makes no difference, but it always seemed like after a hot shooter, there were several cold shooters in a row.) Anyway, the problem with making 1 DP and 2 DCs is that sometimes the 2 DCs don't get made. Sometimes there's only the DP, other times the DP and 1 DC, before the shooter seven outs.

My question is thusly: Assuming I'm willing to make what is effectively 3 bets, would it be better to bet $15+$90 on the DP (DPx3) or some other combination other than what I did? DPx3 or DPx2 + DC or DP + DCx2 or DP + DC + DC. I know that the odds remain the same, the bets are all identical. I figure the difference is in variance. Obviously, with a DPx3, if the shooter makes his point, I'm out all 3 bets in one fell swoop. With a DP + DC + DC, that's not going to happen. Since the house edge remains the same no matter which method is used, the question is: does the variance differ, and also, what would other players here prefer to do?

I think you said it perfectly yourself: if a point is made, you lose it all in one swoop. I prefer the DP + DC + DC solely because if a point gets made, it doesn't feel so bad. Also, theres nothing like having the dealer pay out several stacks after a seven. :D Mathematically they are the same, as you noted.

I play a similar way. After the initial DP bet, I will put up DC bets until I have money on 6 or 8, then I stop and just wait for my bets to be resolved one way or another. If my DP is on 6 or 8 then I'll put up one DC bet and sit on that. I find I can play for hours with very low volatility in my bankroll. Only once have I had any negativity from another player about playing the dark side. I've sat through monster rolls and enjoyed watching the other players make money while still hanging onto a bet that pays when that eventual 7 hits.

When on the Darkside, I prefer DP+Odds and 1 DC+Odds. ($70 risk at $5)
When using the Force Point+Odds and 6/8 $6 ea.

When I play the darkside, I never lay odds ($5 + $20).

I just put it all ($25) on the DP or DC for a bigger payoff.

Quote: FatGeezus

When I play the darkside, I never lay odds ($5 + $20).

I just put it all ($25) on the DP or DC for a bigger payoff.

To be honest, that's kind-of goofy. You are intentionally exposing your money to a higher edge, on essentially the same bet.

As for OP, I like playing a few DCs as well. The edge is the same, but the variance is lower. OTOH, You might get more comps by making 1 big bet, since it's easier for the pit to count

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Sally

Quote: konceptum

My question is thusly:
Assuming I'm willing to make what is effectively 3 bets, would it be better to bet $15+$90 on the DP (DPx3)

or some other combination other than what I did? DPx3 or DPx2 + DC or DP + DCx2 or DP + DC + DC. I know that the odds remain the same, the bets are all identical. I figure the difference is in variance. Obviously, with a DPx3, if the shooter makes his point, I'm out all 3 bets in one fell swoop.
With a DP + DC + DC, that's not going to happen.
Since the house edge remains the same no matter which method is used, the question is: does the variance differ, and also, what would other players here prefer to do?

The HE remains the same. But you have to consider the ev and variance of more than one bet.

For more bets the ev increases as does the variance. DP and DC

But if one wants the best chance to break even or come out ahead over a lifetime of play,
one bet with the highest odds is the *ticket to ride*

would it be better to bet $15+$90 on the DP... ev stays the same but the variance goes up. That is a very good thing!
yes...
(computer simulations prove this)

This also assumes that you are willing to lose the same amount of bankroll to make all the different bets.
This does not and can not give one the best chance to stay at a table the longest with a given bankroll.
Flat betting can do that.

The two just do not mix.
Like oil and water

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

The average gambler, even the average Craps player,
has NO clue as to what "exposing your money to a higher edge" means.

FatGeezus, who just does not know the total consequences from his/her thoughts,
thinks that by flat being more, one can win more, and that is true,
but s(he) fails to think about the *losing more* that comes with betting more.

The proof

The 2 photos below shows 1980 bet results.

First is $25 flat DP bets NO odds.
results a total loss of $675
total action: $49,500
HE: -0.013636364

$5 flat DP bets Laying 4X odds.
(where one Lays enough to WIN 4X the flat bet)
results a total loss of $135 (5X LESS than the larger $25 bet that is made to win more)
total action: $49,500
HE: -0.002727273


One can easily see where the LARGE LOSSES come from by betting $25 DP and NOT laying the odds.
Right on the come out roll, as expected!

Sally says...
Do not underestimate the absolute power of the FREE (0% house edge) Odds bet in Craps

The odds bet adds NO expected loss but adds variance and that is what gives the highest probability of coming out even or ahead over a lifetime of play.

Always take or lay the odds if you want to have the absolute best chance to come out even or ahead over a lifetime of play making a lifetime of bets.
It means you only need a little good luck to have it happen.

Summary:
The $25 DP No odds player LOST 5X MORE $$$ than the $5 DP player with laying 4X odds betting the same $$$ totals (handle)

Who would you rather be?

Sally

I'm not a math boy. I do know that I win more by flat betting $25 on the DP instead of $5 DP and $20 odds. You even agreed with me.

I also know that I don't have to make 1980 bets every time I play. Who makes 1980 bets every time they play? Do you make 1980 bets every time you play?

I'm smart enough to know to get out when I'm ahead.

Math Boys....What would we do without them?....WIN!

Quote: FatGeezus

I'm not a math boy. I do know that I win more by flat betting $25 on the DP instead of $5 DP and $20 odds.

You do not know that you win more.
You have only convinced yourself that you do.
You do win more comps playing the way you do. Casinos love $25 bettors vs $5 with $20 odds

Quote: FatGeezus

You even agreed with me.

I also know that I don't have to make 1980 bets every time I play. Who makes 1980 bets every time they play? Do you make 1980 bets every time you play?

I'm smart enough to know to get out when I'm ahead.

How about the sessions where you never get ahead?
They do happen.
Maybe you are too smart to allow that. Cool.

Quote: FatGeezus

Math Boys....What would we do without them?....WIN!

But you also lose more by betting the way you do.
That is a fact you can never get away from.
Flay betting flat out losses more than taking or laying the odds.

No one player may make 1980 bets in one session but one player can easily make 1980 bets over a lifetime of play (about 67 hours worth of play and it does not have to be 67 hours in a row).
100 small sessions = 1 large session.
The bets are independent of one another so a session here and a session there just add up to one large session.

No need to believe the math boys and girls and computer simulations.
Your money, do as you please.

After 1980 total resolved bets over a lifetime of play (67 hours), I would rather lose, on average $135 while betting $5 DP and laying odds
instead of losing $675 making $25 bets with no odds.
Way easier to over come just $135 and show a net profit
against overcoming $675 betting $25

A true no-brainer

Quote: guido111

You do not know that you win more.
You have only convinced yourself that you do.
You do win more comps playing the way you do. Casinos love $25 bettors vs $5 with $20 odds

How about the sessions where you never get ahead?
They do happen.
Maybe you are too smart to allow that. Cool.

But you also lose more by betting the way you do.
That is a fact you can never get away from.
Flay betting flat out losses more than taking or laying the odds.

No one player may make 1980 bets in one session but one player can easily make 1980 bets over a lifetime of play (about 67 hours worth of play and it does not have to be 67 hours in a row).
100 small sessions = 1 large session.
The bets are independent of one another so a session here and a session there just add up to one large session.

No need to believe the math boys and girls and computer simulations.
Your money, do as you please.

After 1980 total resolved bets over a lifetime of play (67 hours), I would rather lose, on average $135 while betting $5 DP and laying odds
instead of losing $675 making $25 bets with no odds.
Way easier to over come just $135 and show a net profit
against overcoming $675 betting $25

A true no-brainer

In my lifetime, I can assure you that I have played much more than 1980 resolved bets.

Let's say I go to the casino and play for 2 hours and leave. In those 2 hours, there were 80 resolved bets. They don't stop the game just because I am leaving. When I leave they continue playing.

I return a few days later and while I was gone, let's say there were 1900 resolved bets. Those bets would be resolved whether I was there or not.

Why do you only count "MY" resolved bets? The table had 1980 resolved bets. Don't the 1900 resolved bets that I missed count? When I start to bet, do we start the resolved bets at 81 or do we start all over at 1?

The problem with all of these spread sheets is that the game of craps isn't played on a spread sheet. Real men play craps at the craps table.

I will agree with your statement "No need to believe the math boys and girls and computer simulations.
Your money, do as you please."

Good Luck at the tables no matter which way you choose to play.

Quote: FatGeezus

In my lifetime, I can assure you that I have played much more than 1980 resolved bets.

Let's say I go to the casino and play for 2 hours and leave. In those 2 hours, there were 80 resolved bets. They don't stop the game just because I am leaving. When I leave they continue playing.

I return a few days later and while I was gone, let's say there were 1900 resolved bets. Those bets would be resolved whether I was there or not.

Why do you only count "MY" resolved bets? The table had 1980 resolved bets. Don't the 1900 resolved bets that I missed count? When I start to bet, do we start the resolved bets at 81 or do we start all over at 1?

The problem with all of these spread sheets is that the game of craps isn't played on a spread sheet. Real men play craps at the craps table.

I will agree with your statement "No need to believe the math boys and girls and computer simulations.
Your money, do as you please."

Good Luck at the tables no matter which way you choose to play.

GOLD!!!

Quote: FatGeezus

Let's say I go to the casino and play for 2 hours and leave. In those 2 hours, there were 80 resolved bets. They don't stop the game just because I am leaving. When I leave they continue playing.

I return a few days later and while I was gone, let's say there were 1900 resolved bets.
Those bets would be resolved whether I was there or not.

Why do you only count "MY" resolved bets? The table had 1980 resolved bets. Don't the 1900 resolved bets that I missed count? When I start to bet, do we start the resolved bets at 81 or do we start all over at 1?

Independent and identically distributed random events.
For you or anyone that makes a bet and then another and another, no matter if it is in one session or many,
your lifetime session keeps getting added on to.

Players get so hung up on each session, but in reality, we all just play one long session, then we are dead.

Your resolved bets are the only ones that are important because you can only win and lose on the bets you make.
Does not matter what happened while you and I were watching South Park away from the Craps tables.
What is so hard to comprehend about that fact??

Quote: FatGeezus

The problem with all of these spread sheets is that the game of craps isn't played on a spread sheet.
Real men play craps at the craps table.

Sure it is, all the time. I know that even from living in my cave all these years.

BTW, FG, no such thing as "real men"
Just real boys and real girls

and Craps is played at Craps tables, online and on machines.
Same game, same Independent and identically distributed random events.

Keep playing large line bets with no odds.
The casinos and I love you for it.
You can take that to the bank.
Priceless

Quote: 7craps

Independent and identically distributed random events.
For you or anyone that makes a bet and then another and another, no matter if it is in one session or many, your lifetime session keeps getting added on to.

(BUT IS MY LIFE TIME SESSION IDENTICAL TO THAT SPREADSHEET? I DON'T THINK SO.)

Players get so hung up on each session, (BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE ARE PLAYING. WE AREN'T PLAYING A LIFE LONG MARATHON)

but in reality, we all just play one long session, then we are dead.
(SO I SHOULD KEEP ON PLAYING TO AVOID DEATH)

Your resolved bets are the only ones that are important because you can only win and lose on the bets you make. (I FINALLY AGREE WITH SOMETHING YOU POSTED)

Does not matter what happened while you and I were watching South Park away from the Craps tables. (I'M MORE OF A FAMILY GUY VIEWER)

What is so hard to comprehend about that fact?? (I SAID THAT I AGREE IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT HAPPENED WHEN I WASN'T PLAYING)

Sure it is, all the time. I know that even from living in my cave all these years. (FRED FLINSTONE?)

BTW, FG, no such thing as "real men"
Just real boys and real girls (AS A SENIOR CITIZEN, I DON'T CONSIDER MYSELF A BOY)

and Craps is played at Craps tables, online and on machines. (MAYBE YOU PLAY ONLINE AND ON MACHINES. REAL MEN PLAY AT THE CASINO)

Same game, same Independent and identically distributed random events.
(SO IS IT RANDOM OR 1980 RESOLVED BETS AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPREADSHEET. THAT SPREADSHEET IS USELESS BECAUSE THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT MY 1980 RESOLVED BETS WOULD BE EXACTLY LIKE THE 1980 RESOLVED BETS IN THAT SPREADSHEET. THE NEXT THING YOU'LL BE TELLING US IS THAT DAILY HOROSCOPES ARE ACCURATE.)

Keep playing large line bets with no odds. (NOT LINE BETS, JUST DP BETS)

The casinos and I love you for it. (YOU LOVE ME!?)

You can take that to the bank.

MATH BOYS....WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT THEM....WIN!!!


Priceless (USELESS)

I posted my response in CAPS.

[sarcasm]Well, duh, it doesn't matter which way you play because the 1.41(1.36)% house advantage on don't pass bets is a MYTH because nobody ever rolls the perfect 495 or 1980 rolls.

tuttigym taught us that here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/972-the-hoax-that-is-the-1-41-house-advantage-on-pass-line-bets/[/sarcasm]

Just remember, out of 1980 rolls, there are 949 ways to win, and 976 ways to lose. That's a tough edge to buck, even if you don't reach the 1980 rolls. If you are winning on that, great, more power to you.

Konceptum:

If I'm betting the DP I choose to "gamble" against the seven outright on the comeout roll. At the $105 DP level I would make cover as a hedge with a $ 7.00 Yo. to reduce/eliminate the 2 chances of the Yo showing (break even if Yo shows). I also like a field bet on Come out rolls w/ a DP. More Action. (But if I saw a field number --or two field shows-- just before the come out I probably wouldn't pluck down the field bet). (The "law of "diminishing/(increasing) probability"). As I said before elsewhere-- i'm always watching for Field "shows".

Why ""give up"" ("lay") $90 to win only $45 (if say point is 4-10) for odds?? If point becomes 6-or 8 (bad points for DP with $105 against) you can always hedge off these numbers with a place bet (figure out your PARTIAL hedge if you wanted less than the $105 exposed as you " wait for the seven") -(or gamble and hope for seven w/ the whole $105?? up to you) OR TAKE DOWN YOUR DP!! AND WAIT FOR NEXT SHOOTER. You seem to pay attention to what is happening at the table and that to me is "important"?! (but no guarantee of anything). THIS IS WHAT I WOULD PREFER TO DO....USE OPTIONS...moving on

Once I would establish my Don't Pass with the $105 (AGAINST 4- 10 or 5-9) I now have a nice hedge going into the DC play (The DP now hedges the DC in the DC "comeout") {and I would again hedge the DC with a YO bet. (appropriate size)} I also hedge a DC from time to time --on a whim-- with a field bet which covers the Yo + gives me a "bonus" should a 2,3,12 show.. {you did ask what other players prefer --which to me means like- to do). I've even played a horn bet as a partial hedge/bonus for the DC. I can't really say which I conclusively prefer. I liked to vary my play and much more so if I get ahead.

Do the same for the second DC bet. Of course the bad (sucks) part is when your DC # comes back straight way and you loose the DC bet.

I have found that I like to play the DP full up from the Come out (with hedges) and if I get by with a 4-10 or 5-9 as my against I place bet the other 3 inside #'s ( or 4#'s if a 4-10 is point) and hope for a couple a hits and then take them down and wait for the seven. ALWAYS WATCHING TO TIME A FEW FIELD BETS ALONG THE WAY.

bol

"Most folks lose==most of the time."---3 losses in a row --quit for that day --is wise advice.

i also like to play (craps) ONLY in the early morning before things get really crowded! Less emotion in early morning play. Easier to leave when 3 row losses show up quickly.

" Easier to leave when 3 row losses show up quickly. "

Less people to angrily shove out of the way ?? LOL

If you're worried about a PSO taking your DC bet, why not start with a $15/$90 DP bet, then put out a $5 DC bet for the second roll. If it is a seven out, you collect your winnings of $60 (assuming point is 4/10), and lose $5 on the DC bet. If the roll is a number, the DC bet is placed on that number, and you can then remove $30 from your DP odds and place it as odds on DC#1. You put another $5 DC bet out, and if the shooters sevens out, collect your winnings of $45 off your DP bet, whatever your winnings are on DC#1, and you lose $5 on DC#2 bet. If the second roll is a number, DC#2 bet is placed on that number, you take another $30 off your DP bet odds, and place it as odds on DC#2. You now have a DP bet of $15/30, DC#1 of $5/$30, and DC#2 of $5/$30. Now you're just waiting for the shooter to seven out.

This way you're only effectively risking a max of $10 to hedge against a PSO.

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Zumma, Shumma

I have never played at the Zumma Casino. Has anyone here played there?

Any time you read something posted by a math boy there should be a disclaimer like those finance investment pamphlets.

"Past performance does not guarantee a profit on your investment."

MATH BOYS....WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT THEM?....WIN!

MustangSally,

If you would be so kind, and I'm not terrible at Math analysis myself but nowhere near your level, could you please tell me how badly I am hurting myself (assuming a $5.00 DP and Laying 2x Odds) by only laying the odds on a 4, 5, 9 or 10 Come Out? I usually do not Lay the Odds on a 6 or 8.

Quote: mustangsally

The HE remains the same. But you have to consider the ev and variance of more than one bet.

For more bets the ev increases as does the variance. DP and DC

But if one wants the best chance to break even or come out ahead over a lifetime of play,
one bet with the highest odds is the *ticket to ride*

would it be better to bet $15+$90 on the DP... ev stays the same but the variance goes up. That is a very good thing!
yes...
(computer simulations prove this)

This also assumes that you are willing to lose the same amount of bankroll to make all the different bets.
This does not and can not give one the best chance to stay at a table the longest with a given bankroll.
Flat betting can do that.

The two just do not mix.
Like oil and water

Sally

what? a $15 DP is better than a $5 DP and two $5 DC (all w/max odds) because of increased variance?
wouldnt increased variance also increase your loses as well??

Can you show me the math of how 1 big DP > 3 small Dont bets?

Quote: FatGeezus

MATH BOYS....WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT THEM?....WIN!

I really wish you would make this your signature.

Quote: SACR

If you're worried about a PSO taking your DC bet, why not start with a $15/$90 DP bet, then put out a $5 DC bet for the second roll.

Because that, like the $105 DP bet, exposes to the 7 a sum that might make more than quite a few players uncomfortable.

Quote: 100xOdds

what? a $15 DP is better than a $5 DP and two $5 DC (all w/max odds) because of increased variance?
wouldnt increased variance also increase your loses as well??

Can you show me the math of how 1 big DP > 3 small Dont bets?

The idea is: since you are playing a LOSING game (Craps), variance is your friend. The higher the variance, the more likely you will have a winning session over any time period. I will use this hand-wavy argument instead of math: if you play a losing game with 0 variance (like: give the house 5 cents. that was fun. want to play again?), you always lose. So, variance is your friend, if you want a larger probability of a winning session

This is the opposite of when you play a WINNING game (advantage BJ), where variance is your enemy. You want to play a winning game with 0 variance (it's called working).

This doesn't really hold if your goal is to avoid ruin. If you want to grind out some play for a few hours with a low chance of busting, you want a low variance game. Pick your poison.

Quote: dwheatley

The idea is: since you are playing a LOSING game (Craps), variance is your friend. The higher the variance, the more likely you will have a winning session over any time period.

Exactly!
Craps players play with limited bankrolls anyways
so if you are only willing to lose $X lifetime or per session, make less bets larger$$ than many smaller bets.
In other words...
For a given bet handle and ev, fewer larger bets have a higher standard deviation than more lower bets.

A computer sim shows this is true.
The highest variance comes from making the least number of bets with the most on the odds.

I have posted line bets results here before.
Maybe I should keep track of this like Sally does. She has her links down.

Alan Shank has some sim data here.
http://igamingforums.com/iGaming/PasslineBetsPasslineBetsSame-Handle/cxxn/post.htm

Why believe anything you read online?
Prove it yourself.
Not by playing a few hours.
Do the math and run simulations.
Can't ?
Learn.

You should be able to carry that weight.

As far as I know NO one has done the math and posted the results on multiple line bets every roll or for a max 3 (3 point Molly for example)
It would take some matrix algebra (an idea is in Stewart Ethier's Doctrine of Chances text book. He does not show the answer yet in his answer book)
Most are left to run simulations.
WinCraps gets my plug.

Quote: 100xOdds

what? a $15 DP is better than a $5 DP and two $5 DC (all w/max odds) because of increased variance?
wouldnt increased variance also increase your loses as well??

Sure they can.

But they also increase the WINS as well.
Are you so afraid of winning too?

Never forget that gambling is about BOTH wins and losses combined.
It is the bottom line or the NET.

Quote: dwheatley

The idea is: since you are playing a LOSING game (Craps), variance is your friend. The higher the variance, the more likely you will have a winning session over any time period. I will use this hand-wavy argument instead of math: if you play a losing game with 0 variance (like: give the house 5 cents. that was fun. want to play again?), you always lose. So, variance is your friend, if you want a larger probability of a winning session

This is the opposite of when you play a WINNING game (advantage BJ), where variance is your enemy. You want to play a winning game with 0 variance (it's called working).

This doesn't really hold if your goal is to avoid ruin. If you want to grind out some play for a few hours with a low chance of busting, you want a low variance game. Pick your poison.

ahh.. thx
kinda of like $5 pass and $5000 odds (Riviera 1000x odds)

go big or go home.

hm.. does it matter if it's $5pass or $5 Dont (both $5000 odds)?
for both, you want max variance?

Quote: SanchoPanza

Because that, like the $105 DP bet, exposes to the 7 a sum that might make more than quite a few players uncomfortable.

Hmmmm, if losing $5 (while winning $60, so a total win of $55) makes a player uncomfortable, maybe they shouldn't be in the casino.

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MustangSally,

Thank you for that detailed answer, your mathematical analyses are unrivaled. I'm glad to know that I'm not really hurting myself that badly by abstaining from laying the six or the eight...I don't know why, I just always reach out there and pull back. I just can't bring myself to do it.

There have been occasions where I have seen that 4 or 10, though, and have asked, "What is the absolute most I can lay here?"

Thank you again!

Quote: Mission146

There have been occasions where I have seen that 4 or 10, though, and have asked, "What is the absolute most I can lay here?"!

Same here. I have a tendency of not laying any odds on the 6 or 8 as well. I usually make enough DCs (and the original DP) to have two or three laid odds on the 4,5,9,10. However, if I happen to get a DP and DC on every number, I'll lay odds on all of them. Seems to me that when the shooter manages to get me to having a DP and DCs on every single point number, they are ripe for a seven out. My own superstition!