Blackjack Question?

So i'm new to blackjack, and all it entails. I thought of a question a couple days ago I can't stop wondering about. If you were "rain man", and you knew the exact composition of the remaining cards left to be played in the shoe (2 2's; 1 3's; 0 4's; 4 5's etc etc etc) and you altered strategy based on the remaining information( I think there's a lovely cheating computer that does this), how much of an advantage would this give you with? Even with just flat betting? Assume no human error of course! Is it possible to "beat the casino" with flat betting in this way? just something bugging me, thanks!

Hi,
I do not think it would give you any advantage by just flat betting.

Card counting, It is the increase of the wagers while the true count is positive that gives the player an advantage after many hands played.
One can still card count, know the true count, flat bet and really not have an advantage over many hands played.

I would think the order of the remaining cards that remain unknown is more important and one can not know that order.
That would require a lot of combinatorial analysis that the BJ experts that have come before you have already considered that possibility I am sure of it.

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I agree with both of the above posts.

Knowledge of the exact deck composition will enable a player (who has an absolutely complete understanding of BJ) to make the best possible play on every hand, even over-and-above BS. Generally speaking, though, depending on the Rules of that particular game, that still may not provide enough of a +EV flat betting than the -EV you would experience early in the shoe. I suppose there may be some BJ games where the Rules are so liberal, (some theoretical combinations of Rules can result in a +EV at the beginning of the shoe with perfect play) that you may see an advantage flat-betting, though.

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Interesting answers! I've been doing some research on perfect basic strategy. I find it odd that if overall you can attain a house advantage of only 0.17-.22 at some casinos with single deck play WITH perfect basic strategy. Yet, at the same time not have some kind of player advantage with altering strategy based on remaining composition to make the best decision possible every hand. This incredible information is not mathematically worth .25% .50% or even 1% swing? to make the player advantage on the positive side? That doesn't seem quite right, but then again i'm not a mathematician. :) thanks!

Ibeatyouraces, that makes so much more sense, I knew there HAD to be some player advantage, and that's HUGE! 2.5% with flat betting. Now only to get bitten by that radioactive spider... hmmm...

Let us not miss here that advantages can come from flat betting, as you can alter your hit, double, split, and stand strategy while you are flat betting. The dealer doesn't "hit-and-stand" the player's hand as in Baccarat, the player controls his own hand.
Basic Strategy assumes that a constant composition of the normal 52-card deck ratio is in effect, but in reality, the composition changes, not just in terms of Hi-Lo counts, but in all rank counts, which would be humanly difficult/impossible to track.

Not that I am recommending this!!

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So there's no "current analysis" on this issue? I'm very curious.

no, nothing authoritative and certainly nothing that takes into consideration that even with perfect knowledge of the identity of the remaining cards, but not their sequence, that other players will make optimum decisions.

Ibeatyouraces; I downloaded that book and read the blackjack section and I didn't find the quote you are referring to there, I also looked on page 393. which section is it in?

Quote: Paigowdan

Let us not miss here that advantages can come from flat betting, as you can alter your hit, double, split, and stand strategy while you are flat betting. The dealer doesn't "hit-and-stand" the player's hand as in Baccarat, the player controls his own hand.
Basic Strategy assumes that a constant composition of the normal 52-card deck ratio is in effect, but in reality, the composition changes, not just in terms of Hi-Lo counts, but in all rank counts, which would be humanly difficult/impossible to track.

Not that I am recommending this!!

I can tell you that it is not completely impossible. I had a couple staying at the hotel and somehow we got to talking gambling. In any event, she claimed that she could remember the exact rank composition of up to four full decks of playing cards, even if you left Jokers in the deck. I was unable to verify this because I could not locate four decks of cards, but I had two decks and I dealt cards (as though in BJ) and hit and stood according to BS and what the dealer MUST do when it came to the dealer's hand.

I gave her about 75% penetration and told her to write down what she had prior to us tallying the balance. We did this five times and she had one value mixed up for another (forget which ones) on only one occasion.

She said that all she did was picture a chalkboard in her head with all of the values listed going down the left of the chalkboard. In her mind, she said that she pictures a line mark for each card of the value (eight lines per rank, in this case) and she simply stares at the cards and pictures an eraser erasing one of the lines everytime a rank shows up.

She told me that she and her husband have tried to apply this to Blackjack and failed miserably. She said that every time she focuses on anything other than the chalkboard and the cards coming out, even for the briefest time, she loses her count completely and can only picture a blank chalkboard.

I'd say she'd be unstoppable, otherwise, but she can't have a hand that requires any thought, or she loses the countdown. She also said that she can't even really think of it in terms of Ten-Values, because if she tries to add anything on the chalkboard, she loses the chalkboard. All she can do is go through and write (or say) the ranks exactly as they are when you ask her to do that.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Remember, I quoted a book from the late 70's so some parts of it could be inaccurate in todays world of blackjack.

Do you think, math has changed a lot since then?

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Why would any one want to do a current analysis on a single deck BJ game that is not offered in casinos?

The player advantage games for single deck, with favorable rules, where can one find those single deck games that give the player an advantage?
Looks like they died off many years ago.
I wonder why.

What casino would be smart enough to even offer a game where the player has an advantage just using basic strategy?
They used too.
How come no more?

Arnold Snyder was the author of Blackjack Forum. I read his quarterly newsletter for decades. He was inducted into the Blackjack Hall of Fame. I remember reading about the adjustment to basic strategy when the count is favorable. There are basic changes and you can eliminate the majority. There were less than 20 changes that were important. However, he was basing this on an increase in wager when there was a plus count. If there was a negative count, there would be a minimum wager so no huge effect if not altering basic strategy.

There is a simple way to be a card counter as 2-6 count as +1, 7, 8, 9, count as zero, and high cards are -1. I have taught people the basics in card counting in minutes. They are not pros and are not distracted like in a casino but a simple plus minus count is not hard. If 2, 6, 7 and 4 are shown the count +3 count. 2, 6, and 4 are +3 and the 7 is zero. Now you are a counter.

Now to the original poster, how do we turn this into money? I have beat the casinos in the past. Ummmm...not too long ago :-)

Quote: bigpete88

Arnold Snyder was the author of Blackjack Forum. I read his quarterly newsletter for decades. He was inducted into the Blackjack Hall of Fame. I remember reading about the adjustment to basic strategy when the count is favorable. There are basic changes and you can eliminate the majority. There were less than 20 changes that were important. However, he was basing this on an increase in wager when there was a plus count. If there was a negative count, there would be a minimum wager so no huge effect if not altering basic strategy.

There is a simple way to be a card counter as 2-6 count as +1, 7, 8, 9, count as zero, and high cards are -1. I have taught people the basics in card counting in minutes. They are not pros and are not distracted like in a casino but a simple plus minus count is not hard. If 2, 6, 7 and 4 are shown the count +3 count. 2, 6, and 4 are +3 and the 7 is zero. Now you are a counter.

Now to the original poster, how do we turn this into money? I have beat the casinos in the past. Ummmm...not too long ago :-)

This has nothing to do with the original question.

Tanza,

You can use a computer at home for basic strategy if you are playing online and it is not cheating. Using your brain power in a casino and counting cards is NOT cheating, although you can get barred like I did.

You cannot use a computer in a casino to figure out your next decision in blackjack. That is cheating.

There are people that did card sequence. Some of the M.I.T. teams used card sequence with shuffle tracking. Not a lot written about it but there is some info out there. You really need a good memory and above average IQ. I can count but never trained for the rest. The teams used to cut the deck so the high cards would come out first.

It's crazy the kind of different answers you get to the same question lol. All I wanted to know was what kind of player advantage you would see if your brain was a computer at a bj table single deck. You record every card played and utilize this information for future play in other words you vary every decision based on the remaining card composition in the deck with no errors of course. No card counting. just math. That's all I wanted lol. But it appears that no one really knows based on what I've read so far from the responses. The best answer for me was from the 1970's book lol. Thanks!

George was capable of doing exactly what you asked. The problem is that is you do what George tells you to do, you may wing up doubling down on a hard 6, splitting 4 against an Ace, etc.
Ken Uston realized this and George was dropped from his team play.