Poll

13 votes (100%)
No votes (0%)

13 members have voted

Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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June 29th, 2012 at 1:52:21 PM permalink
Your circumstances have led you to a decision point: Take a $1,000 loss, or risk an additional $1,500 on a single 50/50 shot at winning $1,000 to get back to even. In this scenario, you must choose one of these options.

Which do you choose, and why?


The reason I ask is that I came across an article that stated a majority of the general public would answer a certain way, and I wanted to check the validity of the statement.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:01:14 PM permalink
clearly the majority of americans don't gamble and would take the loss without trying to recoup. But asking this question in a gambling forum may offer a skewed opinion.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:02:20 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Your circumstances have led you to a decision point: Take a $1,000 loss, or risk an additional $1,500 on a single 50/50 shot at winning $1,000 to get back to even. In this scenario, you must choose one of these options.

Which do you choose, and why?


The reason I ask is that I came across an article that stated a majority of the general public would answer a certain way, and I wanted to check the validity of the statement.


Making sure I understand the parameters of the question. Your options are:
A) Accept a $1000 loss (as in, you have lost $1000 and you can walk away).
B) Risk $1500 on a 50-50 shot at winning $1000. If you win, you are back to even. If you lose, you are now a net -$2500

If that is the case, then the EV of (A) is $0 (no decision, you stay at -$1000)

The EV of (B) is .5*1000 + .5*-1500 = -250, so a net loss of -$250 on the decision, leaving you at -$1250.

I would take option (A)
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:03:17 PM permalink
Take the loss or chase your losses?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:04:41 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:18:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Take the loss.



you are ruining my this is a gambling forum with a bunch of gamblers in it theory.
EdgeLooker
EdgeLooker
Joined: Jan 4, 2012
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:29:31 PM permalink
(A) because risking $1500 to win $1000 on a coin flip is terrible odds.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:33:42 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

you are ruining my this is a gambling forum with a bunch of gamblers in it theory.



Advantage gamblers.

I would also take the loss. The expected return is -$250, or 16.6% of the bet. That'd be like a machine with only a 83.4% ER, no thanks.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wupper
Wupper
Joined: May 5, 2012
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:42:13 PM permalink
Risk $1500 to win $1000 on a 50/50 shot?

No. Never. Don't think anyone here would choose otherwise.
weaselman
weaselman
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
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June 29th, 2012 at 2:53:15 PM permalink
16.67% house edge? Really?
I bet, the majority of the (American) general public answered that they wanted to go for it.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"

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