Oscar Nominations for Best Picture

"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"Up in the Air"
"Up"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Blind Side"
"A Serious Man"

I have only seen 6 of the 10, and I have yet to see The Hurt Locker which seems to be the favorite. I thought Star Trek was better than District 9. It does appear that there was knee jerk reaction to go with the SCI-FI film that was socially relevant versus the one that was entertainment. I would have liked to see a funny entertaining movie make it into the newly expanded 10 picture nomination list.

They got the #1, #5, and #8 film by boxoffice into the list. None of which would have made the cut if there were only five pictures nominated.

My prediction is that if it was back to 5 nominations it would have followed the pattern of the last 3 years, where there are 4 R rated and 1 PG-13 dramas, all excellent movies with limited boxoffice.

"The Hurt Locker" R
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" R
"Up in the Air" R
"An Education" R
"A Serious Man" PG-13

Movies with no acting nominations have won best picture, Braveheart, The Last Emperor and Lord of the Rings but I don't think that will ever happen again. So Avatar is out of the question.

I think that the director of the biggest money making of all time formerly married to the first female director of a "best picture" film will be too hard to resist.

I agree. When I heard it was expanded to ten, I thought they'd go beyond the typical nominees and at least give something like The Hangover a shot.

With SO many entrants, it does leave the possibility for a greater split vote, and I think Avatar stands out as one that could sneak in and win among a field of ten, whereas not in a field of five.

Here is how I would rank the best picture movies that I saw:

1. District 9
2. Inglourious Basterds
3. Up in the Air
4. A Serious Man
5. Avatar
6. Up

I'm awaiting to see the Pinnacle lines, but at this point I predict Avatar will win, because Hollywood tends to like politically left-wing movies, and they have been getting grief from the public for favoring movies that didn't do well in the box office lately. As usual, I tend to lay whatever I have to on the favorites. Last year I bet everything in my account on Slumdog Millionaire, which I thought was about as close to a lock as you can get.

Quote:

"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"Up in the Air"
"Up"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Blind Side"
"A Serious Man"

What I am especially pleased about is the absense of the movie Invictus from most of the major awards. To have it not make the top 10 is a reaffirmation of everything I said in my review. Only Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon got nominations from this movie. I doubt either of them will be close to winning the award, given that their roles are flat with no character depth or growth.

Inglorious Basterds would win easily in a bad movie year. But, sadly, Avatar is going to take it. My personal favorite is Nine. Oh well.

The complete list:

http://oscar.go.com/media/2010/html/print10.html

--Dorothy

My Predictions

Best Picture: Avatar
Actor: George Clooney
Actress: Julia Child (sorry, I mean Meryl Streep)
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci
Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique

From what I understand, Mo'Nique is the only one that is a clear favorite in an acting award. Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart" was an amazing performance, but not a lot of people saw the movie. I would say Meryl Streep is a minor favorite.

I think that Stanley Tucci may have been a good acting in "The Lovely Bones", but critics did not like the movie. I can't think of one case where someone won an acting award in a movie with terrible reviews. The movie can get mediocre reviews, where one actor is a standout. A good example is The Last Station which got bad reviews for the movie, but good reviews for Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer. But I can't think of a movie with really bad reviews.

I am surprised on the number of people who think Avatar will win BP. I don't think it would have been nominated if the list was only 5 movies. A movie without an acting nomination, or either best original or adapted screenplay nomination is unlikely to win BP. Personally I think it was the most poorly written of James Cameron's movies. Of course, I felt that LOTR was very boring. I have read the LOTR trilogy several times, so I am a fan of the books, but I found the movie tedious.

The rotten tomatoes is the percent of reviewers who liked a movie, not their rating of the best film of the year. It would be hard to find a critic that didn't like Up.
98% Up
97% The Hurt Locker
95% An Education
91% Precious: Based on the Novel PUSH by Sapphire
90% District 9
90% Up in the Air
89% Inglorious Basterds
87% A Serious Man
82% Avatar
70% The Blind Side
============
92% Crazy Heart
90% The messenger
83% A Single Man
77% Invictus
75% Julie and Julia
64% The Last Station
37% Nine
36% The Lovely Bones


Twenty Most Successful Movies to not rate one nomination (even a technical one)
The Hangover
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
Monsters Vs. Aliens
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
2012
The Proposal
Fast and Furious
G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
Paul Blart: Mall Cop
Taken
A Christmas Carol (2009)
Angels & Demons
Terminator Salvation
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
G-Force
Couples Retreat
Paranormal Activity
Watchmen

This is the same academy that snubbed "Citizen Kane" and gave a Best Picture prize to "How Green Was My Valley", right? ;)

Quote: Nareed

This is the same academy that snubbed "Citizen Kane" and gave a Best Picture prize to "How Green Was My Valley", right? ;)

Call me crazy, but I think some of the members have died since then.

Here are some more recent Best Picture winners I didn't agree with:

1994: Forrest Gump over The Shawshank Redemption and Pulp Fiction
1998: Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan
2005: Crash over Brokeback Mountain
2009: Slumdog Millionaire over The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I am in favor of a commercial best picture award for films released in under 2000 theaters, and another one for films released in over 2000 theaters. I don't think there is any way to fairly evaluate Hurt Locker against Avatar. Possibly to be fair movies released in 2000-3000 theaters should be placed in the category at the director's option.

Avatar 3,461
Up 3,886
The Blind Side 3,404
Inglorious Basterds 3,358
District9 3,180
Up in the Air 2,218

Precious 1,003
Hurt Locker 535
An Education 317
A Serious Man 262

I mean standards for an art house movie that 1-5 million people will see are very different than one that 10-80 million people will see. There are 2 million people in greater Las Vegas, and some of these films only show in one or two theaters.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: Nareed

This is the same academy that snubbed "Citizen Kane" and gave a Best Picture prize to "How Green Was My Valley", right? ;)

Call me crazy, but I think some of the members have died since then.

Orson Welles did die since then.

Seriously, much of the mindset is still there, namely the favoring of known and liked poeple over outsiders, without much regard for the quality of their work.

But, aslo seriously, I've stopped caring about the Oscars since the late 90s. I hardly even go to the movies anymore.

Quote: Nareed

But, seriously, I've stopped caring about the Oscars since the late 90s. I hardly even go to the movies anymore.

In general a lot of adults don't go to movies anymore. The expansion of the nominations for best picture from 5 to 10 was a reaction to the fact that very few people watched the TV presentation.



In Vegas they are going to open the new Deluxe theater calledGold Class cinemas in the Tivoli Village at Queensridge which is under construction across from the Suncoast Casino. It will be interesting to see how many people will pay $22 to $29 a ticket to see a movie in elite privacy (plus the price of drinks). Beer prices are $6 to $15 and Dom Perignon is available for $295.

The top 20 R-Rated movies are recently heavy on comedies (Hangover, Wedding Crashers), and beefed up teen films with a little adult blood and gore (300, Matrix films). With the exception of the Passion of the Christ (religous snuff film) it's been a while since Saving Private Ryan came out.
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2009 The Hangover
2007 300
2005 Wedding Crashers
2004 The Passion of the Christ
2003 The Matrix Reloaded
2001 Hannibal
2000 Gladiator
2000 Scary Movie
1999 The Matrix
1998 Saving Private Ryan
1998 There's Something About Mary
1997 Air Force One
1996 Jerry Maguire
1993 The Firm
1991 Terminator 2: Judgment Day
1990 Pretty Woman
1988 Rain Man
1987 Fatal Attraction
1984 Beverly Hills Cop
1973 The Exorcist

Pinnacle odds are posted

Actor in a Leading Role Odds : 151

I'm glad that Avatar didn't get nearly as many awards as its hype would have suggested; it kept me from giving up entirely on the awards system and condemning it all as a giant farce. I watched Avatar in 3D and it should be put in the dictionary along with any word that is a synonym of unoriginal. To me the story is the most important element of any movie, and just because a dumbed down action/romance with political overtones entertained a ton of people doesn't qualify it as a good film. I'll never get the idea that just because a film appeals to the most people and thus becomes popular, it legitimizes it as quality work. Appealing to the most people usually entails a dumbing down element.