Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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April 15th, 2016 at 10:51:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...The best one for this promotion is $2 9-6 Double Double Bonus. I show that has a return of 101.70%...


I don't see a rush happening for this now.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RogerKint
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April 15th, 2016 at 11:02:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Tickets to his private room perhaps because I'm thinking he isn't at plaza now?



Do you visit his room often?

I really hate to see a bulk of the contributors I enjoy the most gone for so long.
100% risk of ruin
Avincow
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April 15th, 2016 at 11:41:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just got word from somebody I was going to play this with that all the $5 games are gone. The best one for this promotion is $2 9-6 Double Double Bonus. I show that has a return of 101.70%.

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 1024 46,925,024 0.000028 0.028927
Straight flush 50 184,157,518 0.000111 0.005543
Four aces + 2-4 512 102,704,558 0.000062 0.031657
Four 2-4 + A-4 204.8 237,941,055 0.000143 0.029336
Four aces + 5-K 204.8 289,567,285 0.000174 0.035701
Four 2-4 + 5-K 80 638,537,018 0.000384 0.030752
Four 5-K 50 2,696,447,999 0.001623 0.081164
Full house 9 18,006,710,343 0.010840 0.097562
Flush 6 18,635,694,348 0.011219 0.067313
Straight 4 21,145,118,110 0.012730 0.050918
3 of a kind 3 124,693,726,702 0.075067 0.225201
Two pair 1 204,075,123,732 0.122855 0.122855
Jacks or better 1 348,909,575,262 0.210047 0.210047
Nothing 0 921,440,314,146 0.554716 0.000000
Total 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 1.016977



Am I reading this correctly? Since you posting about how juicy the promo is, you effectively killed it (someone at the plaza read your post). Wow didn't see that one coming. I think that is why so many people are upset about the posting of this information. Yes, the promo was posted in a ton of places. But not everyone knew off the bat how lucrative the promo was. But spelling it out 'omg hey guys look how good this promo is, I think I'm going to play it' takes it to another level. The veil is lifted. Obviously someone at the Plaza wasn't aware of how good their promo is, but now they are well aware. Yes, dissemination of truthful knowledge is usually good, but in this case it kills the opportunity. Either a few guys get a slice of the pie, or nobody eats.

Darkoz made the initial post because he wasn't in town this weekend. He wasn't going to play regardless. I wonder if he would have posted if he was in town this weekend. Not trying to insult, trying place people in the shoes of others.

If I sound bitter, it's because I am. I had interest in playing. Fortunately, I'm in town this weekend anyway, i didn't plan a trip around this promo. I learned a good lesson. If a promo is too good to be true, well you get the idea.
mcallister3200
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April 16th, 2016 at 12:30:00 AM permalink
Generally not a fan of educators/public sharers, but flagging it is clearly an abuse of the spirit of/purpose for flagging IMO and generally agree with the position of the guilty parties in this circumstance. Fwiw I had noticed another promo that was posted and removed/flagged off a while back, doesn't bother me though I get it.
beachbumbabs
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April 16th, 2016 at 3:07:44 AM permalink
Seems to me like there's a middle ground here somewhere. It's one thing to mention a play that's publicly advertised, let people look at it for themselves and make plans, and maybe another to analyze it before it's gone off and make the marketers aware of the real math, where they can kill the best parts.

Can't advocate censorship by flagging, any more than I'm allowed to remove posts I don't like as an admin. But some discretion could be used in not blowing up good promos.

Maybe just some neutral post like, "this looks good" if something's publicly available, and hold the sauce til after it's gone? You have to figure the casino knows they're putting a loss leader out there, trying to attract business. Why not let the play happen first, rather than showing them how to sharpen it up in advance.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
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April 16th, 2016 at 4:00:13 AM permalink
EDIT.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Apr 16, 2016
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 16th, 2016 at 4:52:32 AM permalink
This is probably the most difficult problem faced by this forum. The forum wants information out there, so that members can take advantage of the information! But it should not want the dissemination of that information to end the opportunity for the forum members!
In this specific case, I think the DETAILED outing of which machines, and the value of the play, was a disservice to the forum. Forum members talking about how to squeeze an extra percent out of a machine on a bonus day, that doesn't make waves. The Wizard of Odds stating the play could be worth $1000 an hour must more than raise eyebrows.
I will disagree with Mike's suspending the members for flagging the posts THIS TIME. I believe that all the members that flagged the post did so in good faith, that in their minds they flagged an inappropriate post. I would give them a warning, as Mike has NOW made it clear that that type of flagging is not what the 'flag' function is for. But I would say Mike is punishing the members 'ex post facto'.
darkoz
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April 16th, 2016 at 5:11:51 AM permalink
I do not believe you are reading that correctly, Avincow. I believe what you are reading is that the Plaza, not being as stupid as you guys believe, already had taken out or disallowed the $5 machines.

Lets see. the way you describe it, the Plaza read this forum and took out the machines, plus Wizards friend just happened to be at the Plaza to witness it and jumped on his iPhone to alert him all within the space of a few hours. (Mind you this entire thread is still less than a day old!).

Or, Mikes friend already knew the $5 machines were disallowed because they were done so way before this thread was started. (Which would probably mean Mike's friend was yet another AP who was aware of and prepping for this promo - wow, the promo which was a trade secret only the entire nation knows about)

Also, assuming the Plaza really did act so fast (within a few hours of reading this) because they were so diligent, just how long did you think they were NOT going to notice you actually taking them at the machines. Did all the AP's on here envision some scene from "Casino" where after multiple jackpots Deniro starts firing the dummie who didn't recognize people getting W2-G's every few minutes? (In fact, it was the w2G thing that caused the demise of the whole poker double up bug - lets see - maybe that's because if you ever want to really get a casinos attention, all you need to do is get W2-G's repeatedly same day - especially when they are giving away 28% free-play.

Truth is, those people planning to AP this (and with each new person coming on here frustrated like Avincow now it shows that the place was going to be swarmed with AP's, those four machines available would have really set the casino off when fifty people all were fighting for the same four seats), those people planning to AP this would probably be on here the day after crying foul when the Plaza reneged on their offers ala the Revel and they had all simply lost their money on the play.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Avincow
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April 16th, 2016 at 7:00:30 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I do not believe you are reading that correctly, Avincow. I believe what you are reading is that the Plaza, not being as stupid as you guys believe, already had taken out or disallowed the $5 machines.

Lets see. the way you describe it, the Plaza read this forum and took out the machines, plus Wizards friend just happened to be at the Plaza to witness it and jumped on his iPhone to alert him all within the space of a few hours. (Mind you this entire thread is still less than a day old!).

Or, Mikes friend already knew the $5 machines were disallowed because they were done so way before this thread was started. (Which would probably mean Mike's friend was yet another AP who was aware of and prepping for this promo - wow, the promo which was a trade secret only the entire nation knows about)

Also, assuming the Plaza really did act so fast (within a few hours of reading this) because they were so diligent, just how long did you think they were NOT going to notice you actually taking them at the machines. Did all the AP's on here envision some scene from "Casino" where after multiple jackpots Deniro starts firing the dummie who didn't recognize people getting W2-G's every few minutes? (In fact, it was the w2G thing that caused the demise of the whole poker double up bug - lets see - maybe that's because if you ever want to really get a casinos attention, all you need to do is get W2-G's repeatedly same day - especially when they are giving away 28% free-play.

Truth is, those people planning to AP this (and with each new person coming on here frustrated like Avincow now it shows that the place was going to be swarmed with AP's, those four machines available would have really set the casino off when fifty people all were fighting for the same four seats), those people planning to AP this would probably be on here the day after crying foul when the Plaza reneged on their offers ala the Revel and they had all simply lost their money on the play.



True, the scenario that those 4 machines were always excluded from the promo was probably always the case.

And true, I don't know how many APs would be there. I knew that this promo is like a BJ pays 2 to 1 promo and it may be hard to get a seat.

So the deal may have been dead from the start. But now we know the deal is really dead. I'll take a 5% chance of this promo being successful over 1% of being successful (I have no idea how much this thread really affects the successful playing of the promo, but you have to agree it must affect it in some way)
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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April 16th, 2016 at 8:06:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The fact of the matter is that 99% of the reason for the flag feature is to bust spam.

Do you have statistics on whether that's actually the percentage of the time it gets used? If not, perhaps it's doing more harm than good. An up/down voting system that auto-hides (but does not delete) messages may be more appropriate. Certainly it's a strange policy to provide a button that anyone can click but have a policy that says "if you click this button at the wrong time, you'll be banned."

See, it's not like you can help it.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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April 16th, 2016 at 9:08:39 AM permalink
Quote: Avincow

True, the scenario that those 4 machines were always excluded from the promo was probably always the case.



Thank you. Just because my associate discovered there were no $5 machines yesterday doesn't mean they were removed because of this thread. They could have been removed much earlier. If the Plaza had any sense, they would have removed them as soon as they announced the promotion. Then again, common sense in casino management is sometimes in short supply.

Quote: MathExtremist

Do you have statistics on whether that's actually the percentage of the time it gets used? If not, perhaps it's doing more harm than good. An up/down voting system that auto-hides (but does not delete) messages may be more appropriate. Certainly it's a strange policy to provide a button that anyone can click but have a policy that says "if you click this button at the wrong time, you'll be banned."



I don't have such statistics. However, I do know we get hit with a lot of spam and it is usually gone within a few minutes thanks to the flag feature. Perhaps we should rename the button "This is spam," just to send the right message of its purpose. Not to say that it still won't be abused.

For those who complain there was no rule against flagging legitimate posts, I could argue it was in violation of rule 9.

Quote: rule 9

No bullying/trolling: Members are expected to act like ladies and gentlemen. Members may not be overly divisive or abusive to another member. This includes starting a thread only the for purpose of attacking another member. (Added 2/24/2012). This also includes threats against another member. (added 9/3/12)



Ganging up to delete an informative and truthful post you don't like out of selfish reasons sounds like bullying to me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RonC
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April 16th, 2016 at 9:49:44 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

For those who complain there was no rule against flagging legitimate posts, I could argue it was in violation of rule 9.



Quote: rule 9

No bullying/trolling: Members are expected to act like ladies and gentlemen. Members may not be overly divisive or abusive to another member. This includes starting a thread only the for purpose of attacking another member. (Added 2/24/2012). This also includes threats against another member. (added 9/3/12)



Quote: Wizard

Ganging up to delete an informative and truthful post you don't like out of selfish reasons sounds like bullying to me.



I think that suspensions of any length for the first time that most of us have seen such an event--the accusation of "ganging up" to "bully" a poster by flagging--in this forum is a bit excessive. It does require two specific actions, in my opinion, to meet the bar you are setting--flagging a post you don't agree with that is not spam and doing a a group effort. I guess you could say that just the act of flagging a legitimate post is "bullying" or some such offense, but then someone could end up banned for something that looked "spammy" to them. I would think a pattern of inappropriate flagging would be a more fitting offense...not just one "bad" flag. I did not see anything presented that showed the miscreants "ganged up", but I guess some evidence could have been found of that.

My opinion, which is not worth much in any case but even less here, is that stern warnings (perhaps by PM), bringing the post or thread back, and clarification of this usage of the rules would have been more appropriate than suspensions in this case.
EvenBob
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April 16th, 2016 at 11:05:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



RS, djatc, Wizardofnothing: Seven-day suspension.
AxelWolf: As already stated, three-day suspension. The leniency is in return for the confession.
.



Why isn't Axel's name in red.

edit: I see, they worked out a plea deal
for less time served. lol
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
darkoz
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April 16th, 2016 at 11:07:17 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

I think that suspensions of any length for the first time that most of us have seen such an event--the accusation of "ganging up" to "bully" a poster by flagging--in this forum is a bit excessive. It does require two specific actions, in my opinion, to meet the bar you are setting--flagging a post you don't agree with that is not spam and doing a a group effort. I guess you could say that just the act of flagging a legitimate post is "bullying" or some such offense, but then someone could end up banned for something that looked "spammy" to them. I would think a pattern of inappropriate flagging would be a more fitting offense...not just one "bad" flag. I did not see anything presented that showed the miscreants "ganged up", but I guess some evidence could have been found of that.

My opinion, which is not worth much in any case but even less here, is that stern warnings (perhaps by PM), bringing the post or thread back, and clarification of this usage of the rules would have been more appropriate than suspensions in this case.



I cant speak for the Wizard (I never asked or suggested suspensions - just to investigate why my thread was taken down) however I believe his reasoning goes to the intent of this flagging. This was a post about a gambling promotion on a gambling website meant to alert other members. This promotion was certainly no secret and is discussed at other gambling sites.

Therefore the intent was to keep the very patrons who utilize this site from obtaining one of its primary purposes - namely gambling information!

From an operators viewpoint, I believe that's a pretty hefty offense for wrongfully using the flag feature. There can be no uncertainty as to the reason for the flags (the members have in their posts pretty much explained it) so it wasn't an accidental flag. As to collusion between them or not, the flags were clearly misused to deny and hide information related to the very foundation of this website from other members.

Again, as the Wiz has said as well, this was not some unknown promotion. It's been nationally announced so there really was no excuse for trying to hide it.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
EvenBob
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April 16th, 2016 at 11:13:19 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

This promotion was certainly no secret and is discussed at other gambling sites.



Somebody has to explain to me how making
sure as many people as possible know about
a promotion that's used for AP is a good thing
for the AP player. If I had a goose laying
golden eggs I'd kinda keep it to myself. Loose
lips sink ships, and lucrative promotions.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
tjanos88
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April 16th, 2016 at 12:07:08 PM permalink
Relatively new user here but might a solution be for the moderator to lock the thread and not allow comments putting a note new threads on this topic are banned or just deleting future threads. Not sure how often these instances occur.
RonC
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April 16th, 2016 at 12:16:18 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I cant speak for the Wizard (I never asked or suggested suspensions - just to investigate why my thread was taken down) however I believe his reasoning goes to the intent of this flagging. This was a post about a gambling promotion on a gambling website meant to alert other members. This promotion was certainly no secret and is discussed at other gambling sites.

Therefore the intent was to keep the very patrons who utilize this site from obtaining one of its primary purposes - namely gambling information!

From an operators viewpoint, I believe that's a pretty hefty offense for wrongfully using the flag feature. There can be no uncertainty as to the reason for the flags (the members have in their posts pretty much explained it) so it wasn't an accidental flag. As to collusion between them or not, the flags were clearly misused to deny and hide information related to the very foundation of this website from other members.

Again, as the Wiz has said as well, this was not some unknown promotion. It's been nationally announced so there really was no excuse for trying to hide it.



Let's be clear. I never said that they should get away with it unscathed. Rather, this is a new breed of offense here and should be addressed without suspensions was my opinion. They didn't threaten anyone, insult anyone, or really harm anyone in any huge way...but they shouldn't have done it. I'm just stating that suspending four people over this is a bit over the top in my opinion. Again, that does not count for much here. Just tell everyone that it won't be tolerated and why it is bad and move on...then suspend. Sometimes suspensions are overused.
Wizard
Administrator
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April 16th, 2016 at 12:41:56 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Therefore the intent was to keep the very patrons who utilize this site from obtaining one of its primary purposes - namely gambling information!



Thank you! Protecting freedom of speech is a very high priority for me. I viewed the flagging in the same way I would view burning somebody else's books because you didn't agree with the content of the books.

Some sins are greater than others and silencing somebody else's freedom of speech is not something that will go lightly punished as long as I have anything to do with it.

Finally, I gave those involved plenty of opportunities to confess. Had the others invoked this option, they would have got three days only.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TwoFeathersATL
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April 16th, 2016 at 1:54:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thank you! Protecting freedom of speech is a very high priority for me. I viewed the flagging in the same way I would view burning somebody else's books because you didn't agree with the content of the books.

Some sins are greater than others and silencing somebody else's freedom of speech is not something that will go lightly punished as long as I have anything to do with it.

Finally, I gave those involved plenty of opportunities to confess. Had the others invoked this option, they would have got three days only.

Sometimes you are just brutal, I hope none of these hurt themselves because they can't fully participate here for a few days ;-) Oh, that's right, they can still read everything that's posted here during that time. One thing is for sure, during those few days they can't give away any secret info that might tick someone else off. I tend to think I like this particular set of rascals, I will miss them for a few days. I'll live.

These forums have been a great source of information for me. I assume that is true for everyone that reads them, those on BOTH sides of the aisle. I did like suggestions I heard that it might be better if not so much detailed information and analysis was posted in advance of some of these promotions, particularly the juicier ones. Don't mind a bit if people just mention the existence of upcoming promotions, both big and small.
But hey, I'm just 2F....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
darkoz
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April 16th, 2016 at 3:45:23 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Sometimes you are just brutal, I hope none of these hurt themselves because they can't fully participate here for a few days ;-) Oh, that's right, they can still read everything that's posted here during that time. One thing is for sure, during those few days they can't give away any secret info that might tick someone else off. I tend to think I like this particular set of rascals, I will miss them for a few days. I'll live.

These forums have been a great source of information for me. I assume that is true for everyone that reads them, those on BOTH sides of the aisle. I did like suggestions I heard that it might be better if not so much detailed information and analysis was posted in advance of some of these promotions, particularly the juicier ones. Don't mind a bit if people just mention the existence of upcoming promotions, both big and small.
But hey, I'm just 2F....



2F - I'm curious what your definition of secret is? Announcements in gambling magazines, on several gambling websites and an announcement on the casinos own website is your definition of a secret?

I suppose no one should write about card counting because we wouldn't want anyone to know besides a few AP's that card counting existed. Hopefully, no one will read all the books out there so this incredible secret can be kept as well.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
beachbumbabs
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April 16th, 2016 at 4:16:07 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

2F - I'm curious what your definition of secret is? Announcements in gambling magazines, on several gambling websites and an announcement on the casinos own website is your definition of a secret?

I suppose no one should write about card counting because we wouldn't want anyone to know besides a few AP's that card counting existed. Hopefully, no one will read all the books out there so this incredible secret can be kept as well.



The issue in part is, we separate the wheat from the chaff here, and hurt some members doing it in advance of the play. There's a huge amount of promotions offered, every casino, nearly every day, certainly every week. It gets to be a dull roar of free this, double that, and that's fine, good luck to all. But the few that come along where some serious money can be made with enough bankroll (it's not cheap to chase a hand-pay), it purely does suck for people to blow the play out of the water by breaking it down ahead of time.

Yeah, it was advertised. Among a hundred or more promotions the same day across the country. Why go further than passing the link on or whatever, before the thing happens? That benefited exactly no one here, and cost quite a few people the opportunity, if the Plaza in fact changed the promo ahead of the play because of the discussion here. (I still don't think they did; think they always expected to take those machines out of the promo, but who knows.)

There's really 3 discussions rolled up here, I think. Was the flag button used inappropriately? Yes. Does the punishment fit the crime? Maybe. Was blowing the play up for the mental exercise of analyzing it before it went off necessary? No, absolutely not. So maybe we can move forward with some discretion and still help each other. Ya think?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
darkoz
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April 16th, 2016 at 4:25:27 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

The issue in part is, we separate the wheat from the chaff here, and hurt some members doing it in advance of the play. There's a huge amount of promotions offered, every casino, nearly every day, certainly every week. It gets to be a dull roar of free this, double that, and that's fine, good luck to all. But the few that come along where some serious money can be made with enough bankroll (it's not cheap to chase a hand-pay), it purely does suck for people to blow the play out of the water by breaking it down ahead of time.

Yeah, it was advertised. Among a hundred or more promotions the same day across the country. Why go further than passing the link on or whatever, before the thing happens? That benefited exactly no one here, and cost quite a few people the opportunity, if the Plaza in fact changed the promo ahead of the play because of the discussion here. (I still don't think they did; think they always expected to take those machines out of the promo, but who knows.)

There's really 3 discussions rolled up here, I think. Was the flag button used inappropriately? Yes. Does the punishment fit the crime? Maybe. Was blowing the play up for the mental exercise of analyzing it before it went off necessary? No, absolutely not. So maybe we can move forward with some discretion and still help each other. Ya think?



I agree but the question is help who?

I did not post the promotion to hurt anyone but to help those who might have missed it.

I'm curious if everyone would be feeling this was a ruined play if the Wizard had received the press release from the Plaza (like Anthony Curtis and Steve Bourie) and had posted it. Or is this really just because a non-management member posted the info.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
TwoFeathersATL
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April 16th, 2016 at 4:33:34 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

2F - I'm curious what your definition of secret is? Announcements in gambling magazines, on several gambling websites and an announcement on the casinos own website is your definition of a secret?
.

No offense DarkOz, but I think you missed my point. And I think you know what a secret is, and I think my definition is very similar to yours. And I like what BABBs has already written while I was off eating some oysters ;-!
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
darkoz
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April 16th, 2016 at 4:38:39 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

No offense DarkOz, but I think you missed my point. And I think you know what a secret is, and I think my definition is very similar to yours. And I like what BABBs has already written while I was off eating some oysters ;-!



I must have missed your point. Or everyone is missing mine.

I don't know, maybe its because I live in New York with 8 million people. Here, everyone knows, if its in the newspapers and advertised everywhere, everyone who counts is gonna know and we help spread the knowledge to those that don't.

Must be those New York values!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
SOOPOO
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April 17th, 2016 at 3:47:32 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I must have missed your point. Or everyone is missing mine.

I don't know, maybe its because I live in New York with 8 million people. Here, everyone knows, if its in the newspapers and advertised everywhere, everyone who counts is gonna know and we help spread the knowledge to those that don't.

Must be those New York values!



I think you missed BBB's point. Just mentioning a 'play' that can make a few bucks doesn't make it on to the casino's radar. But when the WoV mentions it is worth $1000 an hour, the casino likely will notice! We will never know if those 4 machines were eliminated because of this forum.
When I was tooling around a few casinos with Axel, he showed me a few 'plays', quite ingenious, that if mentioned here would likely end them forever. I am sworn to secrecy! I believe that you just underestimate the 'power' of this forum.
lilredrooster
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April 17th, 2016 at 5:18:12 AM permalink
Here is a link to Anthony Curtis's Las Vegas Advisor website. Some of the promotions he offers don't require that you subscribe but some do require that. There are lots of deals here. I believe that he and his website are highly regarded.


http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/
Please don't feed the trolls
darkoz
darkoz
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April 17th, 2016 at 5:50:04 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think you missed BBB's point. Just mentioning a 'play' that can make a few bucks doesn't make it on to the casino's radar. But when the WoV mentions it is worth $1000 an hour, the casino likely will notice! We will never know if those 4 machines were eliminated because of this forum.
When I was tooling around a few casinos with Axel, he showed me a few 'plays', quite ingenious, that if mentioned here would likely end them forever. I am sworn to secrecy! I believe that you just underestimate the 'power' of this forum.



I suppose that is possible. I do not live in the Vegas market.

I can, with almost 100% certainty, tell you that no one from the east coast markets, Connecticut or New York or Pa, whatever, who works in a casino, checks with WOV to see if their own personal marketing offers are being abused.

I find it ridiculous that according to you guys, the marketing people in Vegas casinos need to use WOV to check up on their own marketing offers.

But if that is what everyone there is pretty certain of, then perhaps it is true.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
EvenBob
EvenBob
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April 17th, 2016 at 11:54:31 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz


I find it ridiculous that according to you guys, the marketing people in Vegas casinos need to use WOV to check up on their own marketing offers.



They don't. But some of their dealers and
pit people are here and they alert their bosses.
"Hey, I saw on a Vegas forum that we're
getting royally screwed on some promotion
we have." That's all it takes. Zcore is the table
games manager in his casino, do you think
he's the only one from a casino on WoV?
He's not.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MathExtremist
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April 17th, 2016 at 10:08:19 PM permalink
I'm sure there are plenty of casino employees reading these forums. There are certainly other industry people here, I'm one of them.

I'm assuming there are forums dedicated to identifying AP opportunities like broken promos and how to maximize the return on them. I'd assume that membership is vetted, members are sworn to secrecy, and posts are members-only.

But this isn't such a forum, and none of us had to sign an NDA about keeping AP opportunities quiet. If someone posts a broken (or just lucrative) promo and the AP crowd votes it down to keep it secret, I'd suggest that's against the intention of the site operators. Maybe some clarification is in order on the details, but the brand "Wizard of Odds" has value because it's associated with publishing information about smart gambling, not hiding it.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Mission146
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April 17th, 2016 at 10:48:51 PM permalink
ME,

True, but whatever is there worth knowing, you are one of the few people that can figure it out on your own.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mrsuit31
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April 17th, 2016 at 10:53:42 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

ME,

True, but whatever is there worth knowing, you are one of the few people that can figure it out on your own.



He is a brilliant individual.
.
DRich
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April 18th, 2016 at 11:07:59 AM permalink
I am guessing this promotion must still be running otherwise I think we would have heard from some members.

It will be interesting to find out if they ended up excluding any games or players from the promotion.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TwoFeathersATL
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April 18th, 2016 at 11:17:11 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am guessing this promotion must still be running otherwise I think we would have heard from some members.

It will be interesting to find out if they ended up excluding any games or players from the promotion.

I also am waiting to hear, waiting for news, and reviews. If nothing of substance is posted, that's OK. I'm not there, I can't play, I can't watch, I can't comment. If we heard something, some detail or even vague references, that I would enjoy. The day is young, the plays are being played I assume. Good luck to all.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
darkoz
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April 18th, 2016 at 11:32:15 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I also am waiting to hear, waiting for news, and reviews. If nothing of substance is posted, that's OK. I'm not there, I can't play, I can't watch, I can't comment. If we heard something, some detail or even vague references, that I would enjoy. The day is young, the plays are being played I assume. Good luck to all.



I too am waiting anxiously.

I am hoping that every play that was planned goes off perfectly and the AP's on here make plenty of money.

Firstly because I am an AP and always root for them.

Secondly, because it will dispel the accusations that simply announcing something ruins the play. While we certainly have to be protective of certain plays, I also believe the worst enemy of an AP is usually his own paranoia.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MathExtremist
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April 18th, 2016 at 12:08:24 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

ME,

True, but whatever is there worth knowing, you are one of the few people that can figure it out on your own.

Thanks, but I think that's the point. The value of the WoO/WoV brands lies in publishing what's worth knowing to a readership that (for the most part) can't figure it out on their own. The APs who frequent these sites don't do it because they don't know the odds or because they're looking for plays. But someone who wants to learn how to become an AP can probably piece together enough information from what's been posted here throughout the years. Whether that's intentional or not is another question, and I'm not going to hazard a guess as to whether that's a net positive or negative to the AP community as a whole because I'm not part of that community. My "AP moves" involve much bigger bets with (hopefully) greater than 10x returns.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Mission146
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April 18th, 2016 at 12:17:45 PM permalink
I wrote an Article about it, but I'm not giving any specifics on how it should be played:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/false-flags/

In my view, teaching people concepts and what kind of stuff to look for has merit, but not giving out the best way to play every single possible promotion. As highlighted in my Article, playing $5 VP straight-up is certainly not the best way, and though I don't know what the best way is, I could name no fewer than ten better machines and I know at least three of those options to be at the casino in question. There are people there, right now, playing this better than I would.

Promotions either have a +EV or they do not. Knowing what could have a +EV is just fine, but if we say too much and start getting +EV machines all turned off in advance of a Promotion of any kind, then that doesn't help anyone.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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April 18th, 2016 at 12:32:38 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am guessing this promotion must still be running otherwise I think we would have heard from some members.

It will be interesting to find out if they ended up excluding any games or players from the promotion.

ummm...

Who were you hoping to hear from? The guys who were gonna play it and got banned, so can't post, the guys who burned it and weren't gonna play it so wouldn't know how it went, or the guys who saw how it burned the last 3 days and didn't go? No sarcasm intended.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
darkoz
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April 18th, 2016 at 12:46:20 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

ummm...

Who were you hoping to hear from? The guys who were gonna play it and got banned, so can't post, the guys who burned it and weren't gonna play it so wouldn't know how it went, or the guys who saw how it burned the last 3 days and didn't go? No sarcasm intended.



Well, Avincow said he was still planning to go I believe. Both the WIzard and a friend of his expressed some interest. There were still machines that were +ev according to the Wizard.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
TwoFeathersATL
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April 18th, 2016 at 1:02:22 PM permalink
I don't remember anything in a mission statement ( sorry Mission146, accidental that it looks like your 'handle'), I don't remember anything that stated this set of forums, or the WOO site, was put in place to serve the AP community exclusively. I believe, if I got it right, that it/they were places meant for free exchange of detailed info on the gaming industry. If there was a bias for or against the industry from the founder then I missed that. Now all that info is good info, better than no info, and participants from BOTH sides of the aisle have contributed, and volunteered corrections on data/math/conclusions to the info out there for everyone to share, for free I remind. The sites do not belong to the casinos ( well didn't originally ), nor did the site(s) belong to the APs. It/they ( the sites) were a fairly unique set of ground breaking informational avenues for people that wanted to read them. I believe they remain pretty much the same. How can/does anyone have a problem with that set of what I present as facts? You can argue that those aren't the facts, they are just my opinions after all, or you could agree that this approach to viewing and contributing to the forums 'in this light' is best for all. You could vote to be a Bigot, or that I am a bigot, or both I guesss ;-) Just 2f
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
darkoz
darkoz
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April 18th, 2016 at 1:34:17 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I don't remember anything in a mission statement ( sorry Mission146, accidental that it looks like your 'handle'), I don't remember anything that stated this set of forums, or the WOO site, was put in place to serve the AP community exclusively. I believe, if I got it right, that it/they were places meant for free exchange of detailed info on the gaming industry. If there was a bias for or against the industry from the founder then I missed that. Now all that info is good info, better than no info, and participants from BOTH sides of the aisle have contributed, and volunteered corrections on data/math/conclusions to the info out there for everyone to share, for free I remind. The sites do not belong to the casinos ( well didn't originally ), nor did the site(s) belong to the APs. It/they ( the sites) were a fairly unique set of ground breaking informational avenues for people that wanted to read them. I believe they remain pretty much the same. How can/does anyone have a problem with that set of what I present as facts? You can argue that those aren't the facts, they are just my opinions after all, or you could agree that this approach to viewing and contributing to the forums 'in this light' is best for all. You could vote to be a Bigot, or that I am a bigot, or both I guesss ;-) Just 2f



I concur.

In fact, when I first started coming here in 2009 I knew nothing about AP. I didn't learn my AP skills here, it happened through a series of perfect storm moments, but I certainly came here to learn about gambling issues, and contribute what I could. Even when I knew nothing about actually beating the casinos, I contributed fictional tales of people who did which you can still read here on this site (yea a shameless plug but whatever).

There are probably a minority of AP's compared to non-AP's here simply because AP's are a minority group. I don't think this website would survive solely on AP traffic alone. AP's are the vocal minority here with the exciting stories and contributions so they get more limelight here but this site is and has always been for everyone.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Mooseton
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April 18th, 2016 at 2:57:13 PM permalink
I made it down there. Wouldn't have without this thread. Had fun, lost some money, met another forum member. Might go back. I didnt/don't want to get too in depth on the topic but I truly believe Darkoz should have known better. But I do owe him a small thx for the ev generated as a result of his original over-reaching (IMO)post. Mr. Shackleford, I disagree with your approach on the issue. Sharing information with your forum readers is one thing, sharing sensitive information that could possibly hurt some of your forum members is another. My 2c
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
MathExtremist
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April 18th, 2016 at 3:36:57 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

Sharing information with your forum readers is one thing, sharing sensitive information that could possibly hurt some of your forum members is another.

It's all public information. Are you suggesting that everyone here should continually self-censor because a few members are APs?

What if one of the game developers on this forum distributed a game that had an exploitable flaw in it? Analyzing and sharing that information would help them even as it hurt the APs trying to beat it. What then?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Mooseton
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April 18th, 2016 at 6:57:04 PM permalink
Edit: I don't want to get into this here. This thread should have been locked out of mutual respect. Ap vs ap is different from ap vs developer. I'll leave it at that.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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April 18th, 2016 at 7:02:06 PM permalink
There is more to say on this topic, but I was sworn to secrecy on the specifics. I didn't participate, but was thinking about it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2016 at 4:41:55 AM permalink
First: I want to Thank everyone who supported me for their support regarding this matter. Special thanks to petroglyph for serving a day for me and EvenBob for the offer to serve some suspension time for me that was a nice gesture indeed . I was thinking Mike wouldn't allow Bob or anyone to serve all three days for me, stating they weren't involved. I disagree because I think this matter involved everyone on the forum.

Second: Someone asked me if I was pissed at Mike for suspending me. HELL NO!! I have nothing but respect for Mike and I like him. Everything I have seen and know about Mike is good, he's a fun interesting guy to know.

Do I agree with him all the time? Absolutely not. Especially when it comes to divulging too much AP information. I absolutely hate the fact that he analyzes some good plays and posts about them(more on that another time.)

As for the rest of I don't even know where to start. I'm extremely tired to the point I can't sleep. I'll add some facts and thoughts a bit at a time.

As many of you know I went to the meet up Saturday night and we got a successful fun poker game going. I drank far too much yet got I up before noon on Sunday.

Sunday night A good friend from the forum(I'll leave it to him to reveal himself if he wishes) picked me up and we headed Downtown. It's now 4:40 and I haven't been to sleep yet.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2016 at 5:09:34 AM permalink
One of the official rules for the Plaza promotion was....

Rule 3: The Plaza will pay a 28 percent bonus on all taxable winnings over 1200 and up to $20,000 in free slot play.

THAT'S MAKES IT VERY OBVIOUS THAT THEY ORIGINALLY WANTED TO INCLUDE THE $5 VIDEO POKER.

I have much more to say on this subject soon. There's much more evidence as well, but let's chew on that one for now.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MathExtremist
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April 19th, 2016 at 9:24:18 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

One of the official rules for the Plaza promotion was....

Rule 3: The Plaza will pay a 28 percent bonus on all taxable winnings over 1200 and up to $20,000 in free slot play.

That's not going to do it though. If you're actually in the 28% tax bracket to start with, winning a $20,000 jackpot and getting the extra 28% means you get $25,600. At the 28% tax rate, the tax on $25,600 is $7168 so you're left with $18,432. Just saying...

The right way to calculate the bonus rate to yield a "tax free" award is to take the tax rate R and give a bonus of R/(1-R). If 28% is the actual tax rate, R/(1-R) is 38.89%. The bonus would then be 38.89% of 20k and the win is a total of $27,777.78. When you tax *that* amount at 28% you get back to $20k. Of course, if that 27k award pushes you into the next tax bracket then you're not actually made whole. On the other hand, that also means you're making more than about $205k/year anyway so you'd better be good at tax planning by now.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
GWAE
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April 19th, 2016 at 9:35:21 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: AxelWolf

One of the official rules for the Plaza promotion was....

Rule 3: The Plaza will pay a 28 percent bonus on all taxable winnings over 1200 and up to $20,000 in free slot play.

That's not going to do it though. If you're actually in the 28% tax bracket to start with, winning a $20,000 jackpot and getting the extra 28% means you get $25,600. At the 28% tax rate, the tax on $25,600 is $7168 so you're left with $18,432. Just saying...

The right way to calculate the bonus rate to yield a "tax free" award is to take the tax rate R and give a bonus of R/(1-R). If 28% is the actual tax rate, R/(1-R) is 38.89%. The bonus would then be 38.89% of 20k and the win is a total of $27,777.78. When you tax *that* amount at 28% you get back to $20k. Of course, if that 27k award pushes you into the next tax bracket then you're not actually made whole. On the other hand, that also means you're making more than about $205k/year anyway so you'd better be good at tax planning by now.



I was never in this situation but I would think for an AP, they are not paying 28% on that win. They are filing as a professional so it would only have to do with their total income for the year. That would make the 28% tax free play pure profit - self employment tax. no?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
MathExtremist
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April 19th, 2016 at 9:36:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

Edit: I don't want to get into this here. This thread should have been locked out of mutual respect. Ap vs ap is different from ap vs developer. I'll leave it at that.

I'm fine not discussing the specifics of this particular casino promo, but in general how do you suggest the mathematically-capable members of this forum should respond when reading about an exploitable game that's under development? It's obviously better in the short term for the AP community if the game slides through regulatory and gets placed on the floor, where it would die a gruesome death in a matter of days, but just as obviously that's a bad outcome for the game developer.

Personally, I take a longer-term view. The more good games are available, the more players will visit casinos and the more money the casinos will have to devote to promotions and other potentially +EV opportunities for APs. That's not my primary goal, of course, my primary goal is just the first part -- having more players visit casinos. Everybody knows slots are fading and younger players are looking for more authentic experiences. If the industry doesn't find suitable replacement products that speak to those potential players, there won't be as many casinos for the APs to play in anyway.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
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April 19th, 2016 at 9:37:46 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I was never in this situation but I would think for an AP, they are not paying 28% on that win. They are filing as a professional so it would only have to do with their total income for the year. That would make the 28% tax free play pure profit - self employment tax. no?

That's a good question. I'm self-employed but not as an AP and I recall that the IRS treats professional gamblers very differently than other SE filers. I'm not actually sure how that is handled. Anyone here have first-hand experience with the feds on that point?

Edit: I just read that pro gamblers have to file Schedule C just like anyone else. Assuming they pass the test (that is, the IRS agrees they're a Schedule C filer (the tests are here) then they can write off expenses. But in any event, the issue of a taxable jackpot is the same for any kind of gambler, pro or casual -- it's regular income and is taxed at the marginal rate. The bonus here is simply a bonus, winning $25,600 instead of $20,000. You'd get a W-2G in any event.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
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