mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 15th, 2010 at 9:12:34 AM permalink
Does anyone know: does the Suncoast still have 7X points on VP for seniors (50+) on Tues/Thu (or some other day of the week)? Also, since they no longer have +EV games like Station's "Optimums" (which paid practically no points), does the multplier apply to ALL VP machines, even their best ones?

Since they have 2 pair Joker, Triple Bonus Plus, and NSUD, all of which return in the high 99% range, their base rate of 0.1% would be 0.7%, and if the points are used for comps, then the base rate is 0.167%, and the multiplied rate would be 1.167%. This is enough to push those games well into positive territory, even if you just use the points for cashback.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 15th, 2010 at 11:23:29 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Does anyone know: does the Suncoast still have 7X points on VP for seniors (50+) on Tues/Thu (or some other day of the week)? Also, since they no longer have +EV games like Station's "Optimums" (which paid practically no points), does the multplier apply to ALL VP machines, even their best ones?

Since they have 2 pair Joker, Triple Bonus Plus, and NSUD, all of which return in the high 99% range, their base rate of 0.1% would be 0.7%, and if the points are used for comps, then the base rate is 0.167%, and the multiplied rate would be 1.167%. This is enough to push those games well into positive territory, even if you just use the points for cashback.



I was at the Suncoast a few months ago and it just happened to be a 7x or 6x point day. It was a holiday weekend. I don't know about the senior multiplier because I'm not an old man. I played $2 DDB at the sports bar and hit Aces with a kicker and Aces w/o the kicker, and left +$1400.

As far as all that theory on percentages, please tell me: Is it still "positive territory" if one were to lose money during their visit? Or is it one of those "it was a good bet because somewhere into infinity I would have won had I played perfectly and stayed awake long enough, but what the hey....it's only MONEY!" kind of deals?
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 15th, 2010 at 12:41:08 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

I was at the Suncoast a few months ago and it just happened to be a 7x or 6x point day. It was a holiday weekend. I don't know about the senior multiplier because I'm not an old man. I played $2 DDB at the sports bar and hit Aces with a kicker and Aces w/o the kicker, and left +$1400.

As far as all that theory on percentages, please tell me: Is it still "positive territory" if one were to lose money during their visit? Or is it one of those "it was a good bet because somewhere into infinity I would have won had I played perfectly and stayed awake long enough, but what the hey....it's only MONEY!" kind of deals?



Precisely, Jerry. The actual results don't matter. The casino continues to deal blackjack, and keeps the slot machines plugged in, even if they have a losing day or week or month.

The senior multiplier applies for anyone 50 or older---not necessarily an "old man". Although I suppose children think 50 is old.

The percentages aren't "theory", as you like to call everything mathematical--they are simple reality. "The percentages" are what keep casino doors open and the lights lit. You are confusing short term results with long term expectation. I may hit a six-spot Keno ticket tomorrow, but the house percentage is still 25%. It is, was, and will be 25%, whether I hit that six-spot or not; my particular results don't matter. HOWEVER, the lower the house percentage, the better my results.

If I play TB+ (99.8%) for .25 denoms, I will put in approximately $1000/hr. I figure to lose $2 as a result. I will, however, earn $7 cashback. This means that my expectation is 100.5%. Will I achieve this exact result in one session? Probably not. But over time, my results will average around that number, just as the casino's results will average around ITS expectation. In the long run (which is all that is significant), results will approach expectation.

The above doesn't mean that some players won't have the advantage and lose anyway, or that some players won't win despite fighting a disadvantage. For what it's worth, my results for the last 15 years are significantly above expectation--but advantage players can get lucky, too. The difference is that the advantage player starts from a better baseline of expectations--when I hit a royal, I'm in better shape than the -EV player when he hits his.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
thlf
thlf
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November 15th, 2010 at 1:33:44 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

I was at the Suncoast a few months ago and it just happened to be a 7x or 6x point day. It was a holiday weekend. I don't know about the senior multiplier because I'm not an old man. I played $2 DDB at the sports bar and hit Aces with a kicker and Aces w/o the kicker, and left +$1400.

As far as all that theory on percentages, please tell me: Is it still "positive territory" if one were to lose money during their visit? Or is it one of those "it was a good bet because somewhere into infinity I would have won had I played perfectly and stayed awake long enough, but what the hey....it's only MONEY!" kind of deals?





Aces w/kicker on 2$ is $4000 and aces without is $1600. You left +$1400. Does that mean you lost $4200 of your profit from those two hits?
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 15th, 2010 at 1:39:41 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Precisely, Jerry. The actual results don't matter. The casino continues to deal blackjack, and keeps the slot machines plugged in, even if they have a losing day or week or month.

The senior multiplier applies for anyone 50 or older---not necessarily an "old man". Although I suppose children think 50 is old.

The percentages aren't "theory", as you like to call everything mathematical--they are simple reality. "The percentages" are what keep casino doors open and the lights lit. You are confusing short term results with long term expectation. I may hit a six-spot Keno ticket tomorrow, but the house percentage is still 25%. It is, was, and will be 25%, whether I hit that six-spot or not; my particular results don't matter. HOWEVER, the lower the house percentage, the better my results.

If I play TB+ (99.8%) for .25 denoms, I will put in approximately $1000/hr. I figure to lose $2 as a result. I will, however, earn $7 cashback. This means that my expectation is 100.5%. Will I achieve this exact result in one session? Probably not. But over time, my results will average around that number, just as the casino's results will average around ITS expectation. In the long run (which is all that is significant), results will approach expectation.

The above doesn't mean that some players won't have the advantage and lose anyway, or that some players won't win despite fighting a disadvantage. For what it's worth, my results for the last 15 years are significantly above expectation--but advantage players can get lucky, too. The difference is that the advantage player starts from a better baseline of expectations--when I hit a royal, I'm in better shape than the -EV player when he hits his.



You appear to be confusing theory with reality again. Your expectation means zilch and the only thing that matters is what you take away or what they take from you. In one sentence you seem to diss short term reality, then in the next you contradict yourself by claiming you'll lose $2 in that single session. Which is it--A or B? Similarly, what difference does it make if you expect to approach this or that "expectation" over the long run? That has zero to do with what you will experience on this particular day or visit.

As for you being "in better shape than the -EV player whe he hits his royal" you may be in better shape than me, but you certainly are not in better shape and will never be in better shape, than Singer. Why? Because of experiencing good luck and nothing more. I haven't had a whole lot of it, you've had more than your share, and he's had far more than his share because he says he creates more opportunities for it to appear than anyone else knows how to do.

By the way, in case you need to be reminded, the house always holds the mathematical edge over every player. Always....unless they make a huge glaring error.

I'm 44, and I think a man over 50 is an old man. Why? Because most of them LOOK old, fat and run down, especially inside casinos.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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November 15th, 2010 at 2:12:33 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan


By the way, in case you need to be reminded, the house always holds the mathematical edge over every player. Always....unless they make a huge glaring error.



Assuming competent play, the house never has an edge in FPDW. And with cash/comps factored in there are many other VP games that are also in the player's favor if the player knows what they're doing. The house makes money on those games because some people who don't know what they're doing will play them anyway.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 15th, 2010 at 2:29:23 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

You appear to be confusing theory with reality again. Your expectation means zilch and the only thing that matters is what you take away or what they take from you. In one sentence you seem to diss short term reality, then in the next you contradict yourself by claiming you'll lose $2 in that single session. Which is it--A or B? Similarly, what difference does it make if you expect to approach this or that "expectation" over the long run? That has zero to do with what you will experience on this particular day or visit.

As for you being "in better shape than the -EV player whe he hits his royal" you may be in better shape than me, but you certainly are not in better shape and will never be in better shape, than Singer. Why? Because of experiencing good luck and nothing more. I haven't had a whole lot of it, you've had more than your share, and he's had far more than his share because he says he creates more opportunities for it to appear than anyone else knows how to do.

By the way, in case you need to be reminded, the house always holds the mathematical edge over every player. Always....unless they make a huge glaring error.

I'm 44, and I think a man over 50 is an old man. Why? Because most of them LOOK old, fat and run down, especially inside casinos.



Sigh. Theory IS reality, Jerry. It is a way of explaining that reality. Gravity is a "theory", but it is indisputably REAL.

My expectation does mean relatively little in the short term, but that's simply another way of saying that the short term itself means very little. However, if I play 10/6 DDB, and you play 9/6 DDB, and we are equally lucky, I will have a better overall result than you. Why? Because the expectation for 10/6 DDB is 100%, and that for 9/6 DDB is 98.9%. So why not play the better of the two games?

I certainly realize that some players are luckier than others. However, since I can't control luck, I don't factor it into my playing decisions--I neither assume that I will be lucky, or that I will be unlucky. My particular results for today will fall on one side or the other of the bell curve, but since I'm playing a +EV game, if my luck is just AVERAGE, I will book a small winner. The -EV player needs to get lucky just to break even. It's not a matter of ego, just applied mathematics.

If Singer had played proper strategy, and good +EV machines, and had the same degree of luck, he would have more money than he does now. He cannot "create opportunities for luck"--no human being in history has ever been able to do that, unless you believe in fairies, elves, or witchcraft.

The house most emphatically does NOT always hold the mathematical edge over every player. Ask the Wizard, if you don't believe me. And if you aren't willing to accept the answer he gives you, because you think you know more about the subject than he does, well....
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 15th, 2010 at 4:31:27 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Sigh. Theory IS reality, Jerry. It is a way of explaining that reality. Gravity is a "theory", but it is indisputably REAL.

My expectation does mean relatively little in the short term, but that's simply another way of saying that the short term itself means very little. However, if I play 10/6 DDB, and you play 9/6 DDB, and we are equally lucky, I will have a better overall result than you. Why? Because the expectation for 10/6 DDB is 100%, and that for 9/6 DDB is 98.9%. So why not play the better of the two games?

I certainly realize that some players are luckier than others. However, since I can't control luck, I don't factor it into my playing decisions--I neither assume that I will be lucky, or that I will be unlucky. My particular results for today will fall on one side or the other of the bell curve, but since I'm playing a +EV game, if my luck is just AVERAGE, I will book a small winner. The -EV player needs to get lucky just to break even. It's not a matter of ego, just applied mathematics.

If Singer had played proper strategy, and good +EV machines, and had the same degree of luck, he would have more money than he does now. He cannot "create opportunities for luck"--no human being in history has ever been able to do that, unless you believe in fairies, elves, or witchcraft.

The house most emphatically does NOT always hold the mathematical edge over every player. Ask the Wizard, if you don't believe me. And if you aren't willing to accept the answer he gives you, because you think you know more about the subject than he does, well....



You're a man in denial mkl. If theory was in fact reality, you'd be saying that because the game I'm going to play is theoretically a 101%'er, if I run $100k through it I will ABSOLUTELY walk out with $101,000.

The short term means everything to anyone who goes in to play in a casino today. What they'll experience tomorrow means nothing, and what happened yesterday means the same. Just as Singer explains in his articles, long-term theorists are hypocritical in nature. They want to be able to add everything up and call it the "long run" thereby having an excuse at-hand to explain why they lost today and how tomorrow will supposedly be a better day because they're getting "closer to expectation", but they then say every hand is an individual event. You can't have it both ways. If all that AP's believe were real then explain why if they sat at their computers 16 hours a day and played vp with a trainer, that doesn't count towards the long run.

I have no problem playing the better of two paytables, but that means squat when final results come in. If Singer did in fact play all +EV games then all that means is he'd have played less hands to get to his win goals, and he could have done what's most important to him, which is get out of the casino and return home. FYI here's a link http://www.alanbestbuys.com/id194.html to some of his special plays that deviate from optimal strategy, which he says makes up about 5% of his holds. He sent these out recently via another forum, and he said in a few days there were going to be videos of him explaining each play and the reason he did a risk analysis on every one of them that gives the bigger winning hands more opportunity to show up. Don't forget, he doesn't play like you or I. We play until we're dead tired. He hits a win goal and scadaddles. I'm very interested in seeing what he has to say and you should be too, even if you're only a nickel and quarter player.

I don't know more about the subject of house advantage than the Wizard or Singer, but I've seen what the latter has to say about it a dozen times and it makes lots of sense. First of all, no house is going to allow anyone an advantage. They survive on that, period. Card counters get tossed, as do dice setters because both are perceived to have a theoretical advantage. VP players are allowed to play on and on because they mostly lose and everyone knows it. Those FPDW machines you're so enthralled with? They wouldn't be there if they were losing money, and if anyone was beating them consistently they wouldn't be allowed to play them. That's simple common sense. Singer even wrote about how he got Wynn to put that game in at the dollar level, and in his Gambling Today article he showed the figures that they were making less MARGIN but much more overall PROFIT than -EV games, because they got a lot more play. And only the AP's played them. He explained they were removed because of sloppy, local machine hogs and tag-teams that ruined it for guests who flew in from around the country to play them. The casino manager was quoted on this.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 15th, 2010 at 5:09:52 PM permalink
I hate to give Jerry this ammunition, but when Steve Wynn was on 60 Minutes he claimed that no repeat guest was a net winner in his casino, at least that he was aware of. I would claim he doesn't personally know about the advantage players who patronize his property. Also, the Wynn used to be 9-6 Jacks heaven, with machines all over the place with that pay table, at the $1 denom and up. Now they only have them at $5 and up only.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
rxwine
rxwine
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November 15th, 2010 at 5:28:49 PM permalink
The times when I play strictly AV poker, it seems like I'm making money compared to playing anything else, as also, it's not like a fixed bankroll as I add to it every time I'm paid. I hesitate to calculate how much money I would still have if I had the necessary discipline to stick to all av games all the time.

It's not that I can't play the strategy well, it's that I can't take the boredom. I'm just not cut out for it longterm, though I gave it a shot.
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