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MDawg
MDawg
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March 28th, 2019 at 8:14:50 PM permalink
I think it comes down to "quitting while ahead" which I keep writing here at the forum is an important component to winning at gambling, and many here seem to scoff at.

I suppose that when it comes to a "lifetime" of gambling (i.e. "pro" gambler) there is no real point at which you quit, so in a way, my theory proves itself by the fact of how most all pro gamblers die broke. If you never stop, you won't win.


As an anecdote aside, my Dad used to know Nick the Greek personally. He said that back then (in the '50s) Nick used to play heads or tails OVER THE PHONE for $5000. a toss, and he would pay or collect based on what the other trusted gambler at the other end of the phone line would tell him the outcome of the coin toss was. Now THAT'S serious gambling, and 5K in the '50s was like 500K today.

Nick the Greek died broke, playing for small stakes at the Bicycle Casino in Commerce, CA ("It's action, ain't it?")
smurgerburger
smurgerburger
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March 28th, 2019 at 10:50:33 PM permalink
Probably because they lived broke?

I thought it was common knowledge that a lot of purported poker pros are -EV gamblers, either because they win at poker but lose elsewhere, they win at poker but not enough to cover expenses (for tourney players), or they don't even have a positive expectation at poker in the first place.
RS
RS
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kgb92
March 28th, 2019 at 11:41:01 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I think it comes down to "quitting while ahead" which I keep writing here at the forum is an important component to winning at gambling, and many here seem to scoff at.

I suppose that when it comes to a "lifetime" of gambling (i.e. "pro" gambler) there is no real point at which you quit, so in a way, my theory proves itself by the fact of how most all pro gamblers die broke. If you never stop, you won't win.


Well, you're objectively wrong, so idk what else to say, other than that.


Regardless, cardplayer.com is a terrible website because almost half of the page (horizontally, ~45%) is just nothing on the left and right of the main content. Therefore, I'm not reading it.


Anyway, it's not necessarily "fair" to lump APs in general with poker players. Certainly there are poker players who play with an advantage, but based on my antidotal evidence, there are plenty of poker players who claim they're "pro" even though they're basically just really like retards. Obviously there's a wide range of what an "AP" can be (in terms of earnings as well as skill/knowledge/non-retardessnes) just as there is in poker. Perhaps "most" APs will die broke, although I say that with the disclaimer that I'd say most APs are probably the ones who are grinding out tiny edges and/or exclusively vulturing slots making $50-100 a day. So yeah, if you're making $30k/yr by vulturing, you're basically already broke and aren't going to get "out" of it by continuing to make ~$30k/yr.


I'd say it's just like any other career in the sense that if you make a little bit of money, you're probably going to die broke. If you make a lot of money, you're probably not going to die broke.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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DeMangoForagerbobbartop
March 28th, 2019 at 11:51:34 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I think it comes down to "quitting while ahead" which I keep writing here at the forum is an important component to winning at gambling, and many here seem to scoff at.

I suppose that when it comes to a "lifetime" of gambling (i.e. "pro" gambler) there is no real point at which you quit, so in a way, my theory proves itself by the fact of how most all pro gamblers die broke. If you never stop, you won't win.


As an anecdote aside, my Dad used to know Nick the Greek personally. He said that back then (in the '50s) Nick used to play heads or tails OVER THE PHONE for $5000. a toss, and he would pay or collect based on what the other trusted gambler at the other end of the phone line would tell him the outcome of the coin toss was. Now THAT'S serious gambling, and 5K in the '50s was like 500K today.

Nick the Greek died broke, playing for small stakes at the Bicycle Casino in Commerce, CA ("It's action, ain't it?")

I think you are misinterpreting why many here scoff at the notion of.... "quitting while you are ahead." Most of us on this forum actually applaud people who quit while they are ahead(THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT!). What do we scoff at is this, "is an important component to winning at gambling" <<<That usually indicates someone can overcome the HA, if only they had the discipline to quit while they are ahead. Oftentimes, system touts use in defense of their illegitimate system as to why it didn't work, or why their system will work, even when the math and logic clearly shows their system won't/can't work.

What if a gambler is never ahead, how do they now quit while they are ahead? How do you know how much to be ahead before you quit? $1, $3.50 $100, $1000, $3000 $10,001? If you do lose do you just get to start over at zero? When do you start over, the next hour, the next day, after midnight, after you leave the game, after you exit and reenter the casino, after you sleep(how long must you seep for)?
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Let's not put all forms of professional gambling in the same boat. You wouldn't put a day traders, a penny stock traders, binary option traders, real estate Traders, house flippers, bond traders, market investors, business investors, etc. all in the same boat would you?

While there are some similarities, such as being self employed, money management aspects, making your money in the casinos etc. Pro Poker really shouldn't be compared to other forums of professional gambling such as card counting, Slots/VP, vulturing, hole carding and other forms of professional gambling. I think it would be better if you compared to pool hustling than to other forums of pro gambling.

Poker is a game of skill where math logic and theory is needed. It's not easy to tell if somome actually has an over all advantage there are way too many factors involved, especially if we are talking higher levels of poker play where you are playing equally or better skilled players. How would even know if they have an advantage unless they track thousands of hours? Lets not forget things can change and those tracked hours can become meaningless. Someone better have enough tournament rounds in before they even begin to think they have an advantage. I think it's way overstated who and how many people are actually professional poker players.


Quote: MDawg

I suppose that when it comes to a "lifetime" of gambling (i.e. "pro" gambler) there is no real point at which you quit, so in a way, my theory proves itself by the fact of how most all pro gamblers die broke.




Please show some evidence "most all pro gamblers die broke". Of course, we might have to define what is a pro gambler, but that's a different topic. But for arguments sake, lets assume one has to have an advantage over all on whatever they are playing. And, they have to be getting more +EV action in than they are getting in on -EV action.

Quote:

Nick the Greek died broke

I'm sure lots of PRO GAMBLERS die broke.
Flipping quarters over the phone doesn't qualify in my book as pro gambling, just stupid because it sounds like some serious -EV, unless he himself had some type of con going on, if not, you should defiantly go broke at some pint doing that. Nick the Greek may have frequently played with an advantage at times while gambling and hustling, but it seems to me he was more of an action junkie gambler with a very serious gambling addiction, than he was a PROFESSIONAL gambler. Your quote ("It's action, ain't it?") helps backs my thoughts. Here is another thing he was quoted saying "The next best thing to playing and winning is PLAYING and LOSING." This does not seem like pro gambling to me.
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This article about dead broke poker players obviously needs to point out all the poker players that die broke, because that's what it's all about. This kind of stuff probably gets way more attention than talking about winning poker players. I don't know think there are enough stats on actual real professional gamblers to make any valid claims either way. I have no doubt they probably have a higher risk dying broke than a normal 9 to 5er. But, lets not forget there are many successful poker players who are actually good enough and smart enough to never go broke.

Quote: MDawg

If you never stop, you won't win.


This is a horribly flawed statement.

If you wish, we can figure out what the lifetime of a pro gambler is and how many hours on average he could play. Then we can run some simulations of them never stopping while playing various standard games with a 3% edge. I would be willing to bet he almost always wins.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Mar 29, 2019
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MDawg
MDawg
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March 29th, 2019 at 9:46:42 AM permalink
Gambling requires a lot of energy to do it right. You're already starting with a disadvantage (the house advantage). The other disadvantage is that the casino BANS you if you win consistently at any game of skill versus the casino.

It also takes a certain type of personality to even WANT to be a professional gambler. This personality is why the gambler wins, but also why he loses.

I am not interested in being a professional gambler. I have my own career, and business interests. But when I play, I tend to win. I've been banned from casinos for a couple years for BJ, because of winning. I know how to win. But it's not worth it to me to huddle over the green (or purple or whatever) felt for hours to make money off gambling, because I have so many other ways to make money that are more sure things. But when I do play, I take it very seriously, and have consistently won.

Professional gamblers mostly die broke because they don't stop, and they lose control. We are human beings, not robots, and we can't maintain control over something as emotionally challenging as gambling, forever, if we play too many hours a day. Nowadays, the money these poker players win seems like a huge sum, but most of them aren't even getting half of the money, because they were staked. And then they go lose it at something like Baccarat because they don't understand the game and think the money will come as easy as poker. (Think about that statement from "Rounders": "Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table...at the World Series of Poker every single year?" - it's not true anymore, is it? Why - because of the quantity of new players coming in, the randomness of the game, the bad beats, skill alone doesn't guarantee you a winning spot.) There are a million reasons why pro gamblers die broke, but most of them do.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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March 29th, 2019 at 11:03:30 AM permalink
All this thread shows is it there are a
myriad of reasons why pro gamblers
might go broke. They lose their edge,
they get too old, they get too lazy,
and 14 other reasons. It's no different
than any other profession.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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March 29th, 2019 at 12:20:55 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

All this thread shows is it there are a
myriad of reasons why pro gamblers
might go broke. They lose their edge,
they get too old, they get too lazy,
and 14 other reasons. It's no different
than any other profession.



So, what's a trap for one person is a non-factor for another. Plan ahead, avoid what's a trap for you, make a bundle.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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bobbartop
March 29th, 2019 at 12:48:06 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

So, what's a trap for one person is a non-factor for another. Plan ahead, avoid what's a trap for you, make a bundle.



Better to look at the people still
playing and making money for
decades, than to concentrate on
the losers. Emulate the winners,
lose the losers.

The few bio's I've read of long
playing pro players are the same.
Start planning early. Buy a house,
make the payments, Pay your taxes,
put money in the bank and make
investments. How many players
do any of that.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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March 29th, 2019 at 12:58:18 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob



The few bio's I've read of long
playing pro players are the same.
Start planning early. Buy a house,
make the payments, Pay your taxes,
put money in the bank and make
investments. How many players
do any of that.



Like I said, emulate the minority of call girls who make it. Invest so that you are not dependent on a big score. Then you win more, at least at poker. Eventually your investments are taking care of you. Which is not bad advice for anyone. Why I can't wait to get my rental filled.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Nathan
Nathan
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March 29th, 2019 at 2:34:37 PM permalink
My personal thought on this is they think the Gravy Train will keep on running until the day they die and they spend frivolously, not saving their money for when the Gravy Train breaks down on the tracks and then they end up begging people for money just to get by.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D

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