Going on tilt and losing / regaining heart (seeking a good read)
Quote: IbeatyouracesBut the longer you play against the HE, the more likely it is you will lose all of your bankroll. .
He's not playing against the edge, he's playing his
own game within the game of bac. It can be done
and casinos hate it. I believe he left the UK for down
under because he kept getting kicked out of UK
casinos. At least that's what he complained about
years ago.
Quote: IbeatyouracesCasinos hate it when you're an AP, or a cheater like Phil Ivey. Nothing else.
Casinos hate when you win consistently, whichever
way you're doing it.
Quote: EvenBobAny game can be exploited
if you put enough time into it.
Why would somebody who's put years into
learning this share it with strangers on a forum.
There's nothing in it for him.
Very well put. Couldn't agree more.
Quote: EvenBobHe doesn't beat the game, he just wins at
it. He doesn't have the edge, yet he wins
more than he loses. I know that hurts your
head. It's all about knowing when to bet
and when not to bet. This thread makes me
miss GG, I forgot how entertaining the
know-it-all's can be.
Why did GG shut down?
Quote: EdgeLookerWhy did GG shut down?
It's still up, it never shut down. The owner
got a mod who started deleting posts just
because he didn't like somebody, and
everybody quit posting there.
these hints will keep coming until the chumps wise up!
Of course this is only funny to us guys cleaning out the casinos because it's what happens to the chumps!
Hint #6
Quote: EvenBobHe's not playing against the edge
Every time you put a chip in the bet circle at a Baccarat table, you're playing against the house edge.
Quote: michael99000Every time you put a chip in the bet circle at a Baccarat table, you're playing against the house edge.
Theoretically, yes. The HE works on a large
number basis, in the short term anything can
happen and does happen. A casino can have
the house edge on every game and still lose
money in a quarter. Steve Wynn himself
has even admitted it. So saying every bet
is influenced by the HE is just not true.
Quote: strictlyAPThis is the biggest joke of a 23 page thread ever on this site
Wait a second AP. Wait just one second. Are you telling me that just because I won a particular bet I didn't have an edge? That can't possibly be right.
Next you'll be telling me that I can't add up a bunch of negative numbers and get a positive number.
Quote: strictlyAPThis is the biggest joke of a 23 page thread ever on this site
Blanket statement without details. Lot of
thought went into this. Not..
Quote: strictlyAPThis is the biggest joke of a 23 page thread ever on this site
Don't give up yet. Let see how far down the rabbit hole goes! LOL. I give it five more stars.
Where is Beethoven9th? He needs to be in here for his amazing input. It wouldn't be a WoV baccarat thread without him.
Quote: DMSCRDon't give up yet.
Every bet is not influenced by the HE, it
only applies to the long run. It's a fact
that people have gotten 'lucky' and
won for years and the HE was in place
the whole time. Prove the HE influences
every outcome. Go ahead, I dare you.
Quote: EvenBobEvery bet is not influenced by the HE, it
only applies to the long run. It's a fact
that people have gotten 'lucky' and
won for years and the HE was in place
the whole time. Prove the HE influences
every outcome. Go ahead, I dare you.
For that insightful comment, I am going to give this very thread FIVE more stars. Now we are up to 15. A major record breaker in this forum.
In many other forums even not relating to gambling/speculation the OP would of gotten an answer by now. Yet given that this is WoV I am not surprised for what has taken place. +23 pages to boot and not ending anytime soon. The closest one ever to just answer the question of this very thread even though barely is Ibeatyouraces. It is a band aid answer that would not actually solve the problem of tilt long term but still an answer nonetheless.
I would give my answer(s) since I have experienced what Egalite did in my first two years of play but since it is Egalite I am going to pass and let the guy suffer his own undoing. This is not the first time. It has happened before. Same repeat many times over and over with his shooting from the hip aiming for home run nonsense and not learn a damn thing in the process. Sad. Just very very sad. Well that is how casinos are built and pay the bills.
Hmmmm..... with posts like this, don't think anything will and can help Egalite. Smart move is to quit cold turkey and seek professional help. Given that it is Egalite I don't think he can stop.
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Quote: tournamentkingYou step on any advantage player's toes in any form, then they will react as if you did it to their children too. I wouldn't toss aside what bob said so hastily. The HE applies to every game over time, or else casinos wouldn't exist. Even when I'm chasing progressives in a +ev environment, there's no one bet that the house or even myself clearly have the edge on.
Shhh, you're ruining it. I want them to prove
the HE effects every bet, instead of blathering
on about how 'sad' everything is.
This isn't my first trip to the HE rodeo. You can't
prove it effects every bet because it doesn't. And
I'm wagering it's the first time some of you ever really
thought about it.
Quote: BuzzardI don't know Bob ? Every time I have played Roulette for several hours, I have always lost exactly 5.26% of every dollar I had bet.
Does the pit have pennies available so they can
color you up exactly?
Quote: sodawaterSome of you people badly need math lessons. Like it makes me sad for the state of society.
Talk is cheap, bud. Here's your chance, show me
how the HE effects the next hand/spin/throw. Go
ahead, I'm all ears.
Quote: EvenBobTalk is cheap, bud. Here's your chance, show me
how the HE effects the next hand/spin/throw. Go
ahead, I'm all ears.
Are you sure Bob? Most doubters think you are all mouth.
Sorry, can't resist such a straight line. No offense meant !
Egalite's thread is all ruined with some 23 pages and going with no answer/solution in sight in dealing with his ever ongoing dilemma of newbie mistakes and constant detours of chip stack oblivion.
Not even any words of slight encouragement at all. Poor Egalite.
Love you guys! I want to adopt you all. Now I want to open a casino too.
Mods please take note. It is only fair. Like gr8, Egalite should not be allowed to start anymore baccarat threads and should stick to his old ones that are already opened/started. Since anymore new ones are surely going to degenerate very quickly.
Quote: EvenBobTalk is cheap, bud. Here's your chance, show me
how the HE effects the next hand/spin/throw. Go
ahead, I'm all ears.
Here you go. You put $1 on #1 in roulette for 1 spin. Two things can happen. 97.368% of the time, you lose $1. 2.632% of the time, you win $35.
$35 * 2.632% = $0.9212
-$1 * 97.368% = -$0.97368
-$0.97368 + $0.9212 = -$0.05248
OH LOOK THERE's YOUR HOUSE EDGE! You actually gained a fraction of a penny from my rounding.
Now if the rules were that the house paid $37 for a win instead of $35, that number would be $0.000.
Risking $1, it turns out, is too much because the payout is too low.
The way the house edge works is that you are risking too much for the possible payout. THAT AFFECTS EVERY SINGLE HAND/SPIN/ROLL.
You should be my financial advisor.
He's probation been abducted by aliens and way out there.Quote: sodawaterIf PG Dan is reading this thread he is probably dancing for joy. His precious employers seem to have one more sucker.
Quote: sodawater
OH LOOK THERE's YOUR HOUSE EDGE!
Surely you know that manifests itself in the
long term only. It has no effect on the
next spin. If I win 10 times in a row, how
much did the casino make on their HE?
Zero. If I lose 10 times in a row, how much
did the casino make on the HE from my
bets?
HE can only be applied to long term results,
like Steve Wynn said when the Wynn opened.
He said the HE was in place, the math was in
place, all he had to do was get people thru
the front door. He said the HE didn't guarantee
he'd make a profit every week or even every
month. In fact, he'd even seen losing quarters.
But he's never seen a losing year, because he
has the edge, he always makes money eventually.
The HE only works on thousands and 10's of
thousands of bets. It has no effect on a bet
to bet basis.
Quote: EvenBobSurely you know that manifests itself in the
long term only. It has no effect on the
next spin. If I win 10 times in a row, how
much did the casino make on their HE?
Zero. If I lose 10 times in a row, how much
did the casino make on the HE from my
bets?
HE can only be applied to long term results,
like Steve Wynn said when the Wynn opened.
He said the HE was in place, the math was in
place, all he had to do was get people thru
the front door. He said the HE didn't guarantee
he'd make a profit every week or even every
month. In fact, he'd even seen losing quarters.
But he's never seen a losing year, because he
has the edge, he always makes money eventually.
The HE only works on thousands and 10's of
thousands of bets. It has no effect on a bet
to bet basis.
The HE manifests itself on every single hand. It's what makes the next hand worth dealing for the casino.
Here's an extreme case that might help you. Assume a standard roulette wheel, but hitting a single number straight up only paid even money, not 35:1. Clearly, what the house pays out doesn't affect the chances of winning or losing the next hand. But it does affect the value of playing the next hand. It's risk vs. reward. In a 38-number roulette wheel, no one would play if the payout for a straight up number was 1:1 instead of 35:1. But you have exactly the same chance of winning as a normal spin of roulette.
Quote: egaliteToo much waffle and too many naysayers to respond to. This thread wasn't suppose to be about Baccarat, nor how I play, rather I was after any links about avoiding tilt or recovering from tilt. I assure you categorically I am legit, people that know me can vouch for that. I have assisted a friend become positive from a casino's (he now has more money than the casino's have of his). He had a similar attitude to some here, when introduced to a self professed professional Baccarat player, his response was "professional loser", after 10 sessions were he mirrored my bets, he made more inside two weeks than he would earn in two and half months, plus the added bonus of paying no tax.
I play this game for a living, so I know I have to be good, never made any claim to any edge, I already know I can not predict jack shit, then again I don't need or rely on doing so. Obviously the naysayers have no grasp what this game is about, which is total money management, something I excel in, there is no other possible way of winning playing this game of random outcomes, card flashing dealers is for the fairies, ever spotted an nine or eight for it's next card to be an ace or two respectively.
Oh yeah the HE kicked in today, as I walked away with approx 90% of my buyin, bit tough at times, yet got the job done. It might be just a case of currently being on the right side of some bell curve, variance, who knows and who cares, I'll enjoy the moment. As for "the odds" I present to the casino (not excluding the fact every hand remains 50-50), the casino managed to achieve that 5 times in 8 shoes, even twice in one shoe how dare they (even got hit with 6 losses in row ~ no drama)! Yet I still walked out a tad under 2k profit.
I get the impression the understanding here is some sort of reliance of winning a particular hand or hands, I can assure you all I don't operate like this and would be superfluous to do so. Without wishing to reveal much on this public site or otherwise, I will make reference to the word "templates", a concept alien to most that don't know me and view the game how it presents itself. I pay no attention to prior results and rarely glance if at all the score board.
Most here I assume are US based, however if any Aussi based players care to witness, watch, proof that's it's not hot air, I'm at Jupiters on the Gold Coast until Jan 13th, then at Star City Sydney for a few nights, after which I maybe in Adelaide or back in the UK. I don't hide and casinos down-under can't bar patrons no mater how long they consistently win for. However I will re-iterate the purpose of this thread was not to discuss Baccarat or how I approach the game. It appears the best way to handle tilt is to start winning again, would still appreciate any decent reads to avoid the 'same' occurring again.
Hi Egalite- i live in Broadbeach across from Jupiters and would be keen to watch you play- let me know when you will be playing next- I may head over to play at 'The Club' tonight
Quote: DMSCRI would give my answer(s) since I have experienced what Egalite did in my first two years of play but since it is Egalite I am going to pass and let the guy suffer his own undoing. This is not the first time. It has happened before. Same repeat many times over and over with his shooting from the hip aiming for home run nonsense and not learn a damn thing in the process. Sad. Just very very sad. Well that is how casinos are built and pay the bills.
Hmmmm..... with posts like this, don't think anything will and can help Egalite. Smart move is to quit cold turkey and seek professional help. Given that it is Egalite I don't think he can stop.
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Agreed. Classic case of delusional and compulsive gambling.
You gave him the best advice D-man: "Smart move is to quit cold turkey and seek professional help."
An experienced player knows better, a true winner is well-aware of the fluctuations/variances....Egalite appears to me as neither.
Quote: EvenBobSurely you know that manifests itself in the
long term only. It has no effect on the
next spin. If I win 10 times in a row, how
much did the casino make on their HE?
Zero. If I lose 10 times in a row, how much
did the casino make on the HE from my
bets?
The HE only works on thousands and 10's of
thousands of bets. It has no effect on a bet
to bet basis.
Are you serious with this commentary, EvenBob?!
Of course the house edge effects each and every bet we make, for it is a constant.
Your "10 times in a row" winning streak is not excluded from the HE calculation either.
Why? Because, while you did win, you were paid out at LESS THAN the true odds.
Oh, and there's an apt descriptive term for that short payout: the House Edge.
Quote: gr8playerAre you serious with this commentary, EvenBob?!
Of course the house edge effects each and every bet we make, for it is a constant.
Your "10 times in a row" winning streak is not excluded from the HE calculation either.
Why? Because, while you did win, you were paid out at LESS THAN the true odds.
Oh, and there's an apt descriptive term for that short payout: the House Edge.
In fact, since the house edge comes from short payouts, you can say the casino "makes its money" when you win a bet, by shorting your payout from true odds. When you lose a bet, nothing happens. But really, that's all semantics -- the house edge affects every hand equally, whether you win, lose, or tie.
Quote: gr8playerAgreed. Classic case of delusional and compulsive gambling.
You gave him the best advice D-man: "Smart move is to quit cold turkey and seek professional help."
An experienced player knows better, a true winner is well-aware of the fluctuations/variances....Egalite appears to me as neither.
Hope you are doing well gr8.
I was never around in those active days of Gamblers Glen so I don't know what went on through there. Yet we both been around those days of BF and we saw all that compulsive Peter Principle nonsense from Egalite. You know when he posts wildly with all these big posts one after another you know he got hit big time. He may win big but he never gets to keep what he made and most likely give his bankroll away as well. I have seen his type all the time at the tables. Doesn't have to be baccarat. Could be any other game of chance. They don't play for money. They play for excitement and to show off. *face palm* *turning head* *can't stop laughing* (well it is Egalite so you have to laugh)
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sleeping problems, sleep medication, smoking, too fat around the middle, volatile, unpredictable and sometimes violent personality = Train Wreck
Yes, we've all witnessed our share of "Egalites":
Yesterday in AC, a player sits at my Bac table that I've seen countless times, but I'll relate the experience here because it's topical:
This is a very conservative player. He'll hesitate to bet 2 quarters ($50). I've seen it.
UNTIL, that is, when he hits a losing streak. Then, it's 300 - 400, then, if lost, 800 - 1000, then, if lost, 1800 - 2000. Well, as luck would have it (or, should I say, his "bad luck" would have it), he's caught taking more money out of his pocket (he only bought in for 1500) for his roughly 1800 bet. He proceeded to lose the bet and left the table.
You had to be there to see the look on his face. Too bad. I've played many times at the same table with him, and he's the nicest guy in the place. Just a crappy Bac player. A delusional player that thinks that he can't lose X number of hands in a row. There's more players like that than there are that approach the game as I do, believe that. "Up as you lose" wannabes, all bright and cheery-eyed until the inevitable.....
A true winner plays a disciplined and patient game, and is well-versed in their variances. So well-versed that nothing surprises them, so that tilting is out of the question. A true winner bets 12 to 20 hands per shoe, only on the plays that carry strike rates of better-than 50%. And a true winner has a MM plan in place that, even when a session is lost, full recoup is made in an efficient manner.
A loser is the player that INSISTS on winning each and every session. Never, ever forget that, my friends.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/16520-when-does-the-house-edge-work-for-the-casino/#post310727
Oh I had my more than fair share of Egalites. Just thankfully it was mostly on play simulations at home. I did have my fair share of Egalites when I was at the tables when I just started playing real money at Foxwoods. Yet they were miniscule and not Egalite sleep deprivation devastating since I saw that table time as not to make money but to learn how to play correctly. Well that was in the past really. Learned from them, adjusted mentally/emotionally and came out stronger and much more stable as a result. Didn't happen overnight though. It takes work and that is mostly when you are at home and/or when you are off the tables and researching/studying your cards and plays.
Egalite is not the only one. Remember that character Therapy101 back in the days of BF? He had all the trappings of Egalite except that he was into flat betting. The poor guy was running into issues and through PM I offered books, websites and videos that will help with his game mentally and emotionally since I realize that was where his problems were. Plus he asked for them. Then the guy blew me off and stated he doesn't need all that and called it silly. Well you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. So the cliche goes. Well I did my part for something I have an answer to.
Same thing is going to happen with Egalite and anyone that is like him. He started this thread asking for help. Yet if you give it to him will he actually going to do something about it and improve and hopefully eliminate his issues? Most likely not and laugh it off and continue the downward spiral.
In fact, those sorts of players "can't wait" to lose.
Oh, don't get me wrong, they want to win just like the rest of us.
But, alas, when things begin to go "south", they can't handle that pressure (mostly because they're unprepared for it) and, in fact, succumb to it.
"Succumb"? How?
By tilting. By "betting it all".
Because they fear losing so much that losing simply is not an option for them. They can't handle it. So they fight it with all their might (yes, you can replace the word "might" with "money").
And who do you think will win that fight over the long run? The player, with his hundred units, or the casino, with their virtually limitless units?
You ain't never gonna out-muscle the casino, my friends, so you'd best learn to out-think them.
Quote: sodawaterThe HE manifests itself on every single hand. .
No. It doesn't. If I win 10 spins in a row,
how did the HE manifest itself? It didn't,
it can't. The HE should never concern a
player, it has nothing to do with anything
in the short term. It takes thousands and
thousands of hands for the edge to work
for the the casino, yet you think it works
against the player on every single hand.
It doesn't.
That's my point in mentioning the Wynn
story twice. If the edge was working for
the casino on every play, they would never
have a losing day, let alone a losing quarter.
Yet they do.
It's the same for a roulette wheel. It's constantly
trying to balance itself, there should be a
point when all the numbers have shown up
an equal number of times. But this never happens
on just one wheel. You almost have to consider
all the wheels in the world at once, then you can
see the balance. The law of large numbers.
It's the same for the edge. You almost have to consider
the whole state of NV, then you can see the edge at
work.
There is definitely a solution and the process to deal with that. But given that it is Egalite I am going hold out on how to do so. Ha ha. It is not my money and it's Egalite so why do I care.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/16520-when-does-the-house-edge-work-for-the-casino/#post310727
sure.Quote: sodawaterIn fact, since the house edge comes from short payouts, you can say the casino "makes its money" when you win a bet, by shorting your payout from true odds.
This is 10 year old math stuff.
win 10X in a row with $18 on Red.
you had $18*2*10 returned to you ($360)
a fair payoff would have returned
$18*10 + $20*$10 = $380
(every $18 should pay $20 to be fair ($1 pays $1 1/9) - the bet is a dog here)
that $20 difference in what the casino short payed over 10 wins
divided by
what they should have returned to the player $380 IS the house edge.
20/380
They saved themselves $20
no trick accounting here
the player IS very happy he kicked the casino's ass ("what HE? there is none!")
The casino IS very happy it short paid the player because of the house edge. It is always there.
a win - win
Quote: gr8player
Why? Because, while you did win, you were paid out at LESS THAN the true odds.
.
So if I make 10 $10 bets in roulette,
I should have about $95 left after every
session, right? Because the edge takes
its chunk on every spin.
Is that the story you want us to believe?
And if I win all 10 bets, how much did the
house make on my play.
Hint #7
Otherwise known as "know which buttons to push"
Every time you are playing a negative game in the casino, you are risking more with your bet than the reward of the payout justifies. No matter the game, it all boils down to that. That's where the house edge comes from. If you're playing the Any Seven bet in craps, you are risking $1, hoping to win $4. But that's too little a win to justify the risk. It would only be worth it if the casino paid out $5 or more. Since you are now risking money without enough of a reward, you are facing the house edge EVERY time you make a bet -- it doesn't matter how that bet is resolved.
