Blackjack House Hands
April 16th, 2013 at 11:58:16 AM
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Hi,
I would like to know how you calculate the probability of winning a hand before and after the cards have been dealt assuming you know what cards have been dealt previously. For example, if it was an 8 deck shoe and there are 31 aces, 100 10's, 25 8's etc left then what is the likelihood of me beating the dealer? Then when my cards are dealt what are the chances of winning and if I should take a card or not. Quite complicated I know but interested in learning more about stats and calculating odds.
Thanks!
I would like to know how you calculate the probability of winning a hand before and after the cards have been dealt assuming you know what cards have been dealt previously. For example, if it was an 8 deck shoe and there are 31 aces, 100 10's, 25 8's etc left then what is the likelihood of me beating the dealer? Then when my cards are dealt what are the chances of winning and if I should take a card or not. Quite complicated I know but interested in learning more about stats and calculating odds.
Thanks!
April 16th, 2013 at 12:09:49 PM
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Whether or not you should take a card has already all been figured out for you. It's called basic strategy based on a neutral decks. Knowing and tracking what cards have already been played is card counting and as part of card counting, you learn just when to deviate from the basic strategy.
Now the likelihood of you beating the dealer on any particular hand and you aren't going to like this much, but you are almost never the favorite to beat the dealer no matter how positive the count gets. I would say 'never' but there are very rare circumstances, based on the make up of very few remaining cards. Penetration rarely gets to that point though. BUT, with a good count (favorable situations) you can be a slight favorite to make money. Even though you will still lose more hands than win, BJ's play the player 3-2 instead of even money and this factor makes you the favorite to make money, even though you will still lose more hands, a small percent of the time.
Now the likelihood of you beating the dealer on any particular hand and you aren't going to like this much, but you are almost never the favorite to beat the dealer no matter how positive the count gets. I would say 'never' but there are very rare circumstances, based on the make up of very few remaining cards. Penetration rarely gets to that point though. BUT, with a good count (favorable situations) you can be a slight favorite to make money. Even though you will still lose more hands than win, BJ's play the player 3-2 instead of even money and this factor makes you the favorite to make money, even though you will still lose more hands, a small percent of the time.
