Wizard as a 6 figure professional gamber (from Wizard of the Venetian)

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.

Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.

Not to speak for the wizard, but making six figures as an AP requires an enormous bankroll, even if you're very good at everything. Counting, sports handicapping, hole carding, poker; they all involve significant variance, regardless of your skill level. The Wiz said he lost most of his bankroll in the real estate crash, so that would be that. I'm not saying there weren't other factors involved, but I'd bet that is the main one.

Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.

The average high school student can learn to count cards well enough to win 6 figures a year with the proper bankroll. The casinos will not allow it.

Modern day surveillance is constantly improving while card counting remains fairly stagnant. That's why the best counters are branching out to other AP plays.

not difficult for the best in the business - i.e. the Wizard. If he can't do it, not many can.

Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own?

That is pretty much the gist of it. I had about a 350K bankroll, which was enough to make 100K a year from. However, I blew it on Las Vegas real estate, thinking that we were at the bottom in the summer of 2009. Between that money gone, and further loss of value, I've lost half a million dollars in the last three years gambling on Vegas real estate. It would be easy to say that in retrospect, I should have stuck to cards and sports. Now I don't have the bankroll to make it worth my bother to play.

Quote: Wizard

That is pretty much the gist of it. I had about a 350K bankroll, which was enough to make 100K a year from. However, I blew it on Las Vegas real estate, thinking that we were at the bottom in the summer of 2009. Between that money gone, and further loss of value, I've lost half a million dollars in the last three years gambling on Vegas real estate. It would be easy to say that in retrospect, I should have stuck to cards and sports. Now I don't have the bankroll to make it worth my bother to play.

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.

Quote: pacomartin

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.

it's the double-edged sword of the Leverage.

I again am amazed at how open the Wizard is willing to be on the personal stuff.

Quote: pacomartin

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.

Perhaps not, but please do not forget that fortunes were made and lost in Tulip Bulbs while all the while the salary of the most skilled craftsman in society, a cooper in the beer industry, remained relatively stagnant.

With casinos world wide being under attack by amalgams of Russian programmers and Asian gangs, it is perhaps a better use of skills to focus on casino cheats now than Las Vegas real estate ... or tulips!

There are those who fancy themselves Advantage Gamblers and perhaps they do indeed merit the title, but now the real Advantage Gamblers are well funded criminal groups with access to sophisticated programmers.

There is a time to be a Tulip Bulb Trader, a time to be a skilled wainwright in the cooperage industry ... and a time to be a statistical analyst in the Gambling Industry.

Quote: pacomartin

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.

Just as an aside ... a matter of curiosity: what were you taught as a child about the value of real estate in general and single family homes in particular?

When I was young a popular best seller was a fanciful book by an adagio dancer making utterly false claims of easy stock market wealth through the use of stock charts and stop-loss orders. (He really made his money selling the book, but everyone was making money in the market at the time so that is what he wrote about). However, I was more interested in the lessons learned by an author who wrote about having made millions in his spare time in income property (rather than single family homes). He actually had done it and later wrote a sequel entitled how to make three million in your spare time.

I also was moved by Darrell Huff (author of How to Lie With Statistics) who showed that his having bought real estate and held onto it made him more money than trading California real estate as everyone else had been doing.

Then along came Banks, Non-Bank Banks and collateralized mortgage obligations and suddenly the only law of value was The Law of the Chinese Sardine Can and nothing, absolutely nothing, had any value except the value for which it could be sold.

So ... when you were twelve years old ... what were you learning about real estate valuation? Did you believe in "Work Hard and Save Your Money" or in the value of a Single Family Home?

Quote: FleaStiff

Just as an aside ... a matter of curiosity: what were you taught as a child about the value of real estate in general and single family homes in particular?

I was taught that the single-family home was one of the safest and best investments you could make. Not to mention the government subsidy on the interest. In my own experience, I could see my father bought the home I grew up in for 30K in 1970, and in 2009 it was worth about 800K. That is a grown rate of 8.8% per year, not to mention a place to live. In about 1977 he bought an ocean-front house in Washington State. I don't know what he paid for it, but do know he did quite well on that one too.

Quote: odiousgambit

I again am amazed at how open the Wizard is willing to be on the personal stuff.

Me too.

I don't know what's more surprising: Mike's candor, or other people's nosyness.

Quote: Wizard

I was taught that the single-family home was one of the safest and best investments you could make. Not to mention the government subsidy on the interest. In my own experience, I could see my father bought the home I grew up in for 30K in 1970, and in 2009 it was worth about 800K. That is a grown rate of 8.8% per year, not to mention a place to live. In about 1977 he bought an ocean-front house in Washington State. I don't know what he paid for it, but do know he did quite well on that one too.

Well, I had meant Paco since he is the one who raised the issue of what we were taught as children about real estate.

We all learned about location, location, location and that much of a home's value was arbitrarily determined by emotional or situational circumstances rather than by fundamental influences of value. That purchasers were often emotionally influenced by the notion of home ownership and that families often were under pressure such as job transfers or the like. That most buyers were unskilled and many didn't even know that the sales agent they went to was legally working for the seller, not the buyer. That value by neighborhoods often depended on political processes rather than intrinsic value and that much appreciation was due to general economic well being of a post war economy with massive federal spending.

California was a great boon to real estate owners... the City of Petaluma even tried to bring up the drawbridge and legislate quality of life by keeping out non-owners or those willing to buy fewer than ten acres. In some areas of California elderly owners couldn't believe the offers they were getting. Some elderly sellers were accepting huge offers without even realizing the value was far more.

But as things progressed beyond returning GIs and the GI bill and massive road building or other public work projects that emboldened labor unions alot of the sustained buying of real estate was getting skewed by White Flight and then later by Corporate Flight. Eventually terms such as Rust Belt emerged but real estate got hit hard in many areas: Will the last person to leave Seattle, please turn out the lights was the billboard and the reality was block after block with every single structure having a for sale sign on it. Later it became Oil areas, then Grand Junction, Colorado as the shale oil speculation dried up, more and more real estate was vulnerable but all that came later.

I guess I grew up reading different books than others did. To me real estate was only a tad bit different from tulips, it was just on a longer time scale.

There is nothing sacred about investing in real estate. It has its risks. Too many people only pay attention to stories about the winners and ignore the facts about the losses.

I'm just curious about this: even with a small bankroll for gambling, how much of a percentage return can one expect from "expert play" at various games? I leave the "games" open for discussion.

thanks.

Real estate speculation, as a business, is both a certain type of risk, even gambling, and a reasonable undertaking. So is starting a business, such as a table game design business, which is real gambling.

Quote: FleaStiff

Well, I had meant Paco since he is the one who raised the issue of what we were taught as children about real estate.

We all learned about location, location, location and that much of a home's value was arbitrarily determined by emotional or situational circumstances rather than by fundamental influences of value. That purchasers were often emotionally influenced by the notion of home ownership and that families often were under pressure such as job transfers or the like. That most buyers were unskilled and many didn't even know that the sales agent they went to was legally working for the seller, not the buyer. That value by neighborhoods often depended on political processes rather than intrinsic value and that much appreciation was due to general economic well being of a post war economy with massive federal spending.

I guess I grew up reading different books than others did. To me real estate was only a tad bit different from tulips, it was just on a longer time scale.

As a very young child I do remember simply not understanding the concept of rent. I can remember asking another kid why you didn't get your money back at the end of the year since you weren't buying anything. That is how ingrained I was in the idea that people bought homes.

I only learned about tulip bulbs when I was much older. I don't know your age, but discussions of tulip mania only became mainstream in the 80's. Before that we had words like stagflation, and of course the gasoline crisis. But I was already in my 20's.

Zillow dropped their home value estimas by 64% in Las Vegas from April 2006 until the present. So I would say the losses that the Wizard is discussing are, if anything, below average.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm just curious about this: even with a small bankroll for gambling, how much of a percentage return can one expect from "expert play" at various games? I leave the "games" open for discussion.

If I recall correctly someone on this board had a very impressive first year at Blackjack followed by a much more realistic second year, so I guess it varies. Much of the "edge" consists of comps such as drinks so how much of a self defeating edge is that? Even if the booze is high quality it still is booze night after night. Free room, free booze, free food ... fine and dandy, but a spouse prefers something more stable than the turn of the card.

Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.

Professional casino gambling, whether in dice setting, card-counting, whatever the AP, is next to impossible. I pointed out that as a career choice, or as a reasonable professional choice, it is not a wise idea; it is even a bit of a delusion. Casinos are for-profit business in the entertainment industry, like movie houses, nightclubs, and cocktail lounges. They don't exist to be a source of easy money for the clients, they existing to provide entertainment or "juice" for the clients. If there is a leaking valve in their operation, the fix it and stop the leak, every time, or else they fold.

If you honestly think it is not difficult to make six figures as a gambler, you may be kidding yourself on this, just speaking plainly. It is either exceedingly difficult, or simply impossible. And I imagine that it is not an enjoyable job; it is work. After a while oneself perfers something more stable than the turn of the cards for financial security, except for the casino owner.

Thanks Wizard for being so open. Sorry to hear about the real estate problems. It is a bit sad to see that was the problem that ruined a great gambler like you.

Like I said before, if the Wizard can't get it done, very few of the rest of us have a chance. I'm using this as a personal lesson!

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Why is it that most people believe that to be a successfull AP you have to make "6 figures" and have a huge BR?

It is the truth as far as I'm concerned. I can't possibly see living comfortably making less than 100K/year. That's just me.

Quote: Paigowdan

And I imagine that it is not an enjoyable job; it is work.

I agree...

3 decades ago I learned to count, but had little bankroll, and little time to go to csainos. I only spread 5 to 1, really zero, because I would go to the bathroom during bad counts. As little as my bankroll was, I likely was 'earning' $5 an hour or so. Of course there were better days and worse days. After a while I didn't enjoy the 'work', I couldnt chat, drink, or do other things that made me enjoy going to the casino.
So from that point on I stopped formally counting, played basic strategy, and used my real job to make money, not a casino. I still do look for the occassional positive EV action that presents itself, but I certainly would not depend on it.

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Quote: Paigowdan

Professional casino gambling, whether in dice setting, card-counting, whatever the AP, is next to impossible.

I vehemently disagree with this. Professional gambling is not easy, but it is definitely possible in lots of different ways.

Somebody asked about the bankroll required. I would roughly say to be safe it take 3 to 5 times what you wish to earn in a year.

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Quote: Paigowdan

Professional casino gambling, whether in dice setting, card-counting, whatever the AP, is next to impossible. I pointed out that as a career choice, or as a reasonable professional choice, it is not a wise idea; it is even a bit of a delusion. Casinos are for-profit business in the entertainment industry, like movie houses, nightclubs, and cocktail lounges. They don't exist to be a source of easy money for the clients, they existing to provide entertainment or "juice" for the clients. If there is a leaking valve in their operation, the fix it and stop the leak, every time, or else they fold.

If you honestly think it is not difficult to make six figures as a gambler, you may be kidding yourself on this, just speaking plainly. It is either exceedingly difficult, or simply impossible. And I imagine that it is not an enjoyable job; it is work. After a while oneself perfers something more stable than the turn of the cards for financial security, except for the casino owner.

Paigow Dan I can think of at least 20 people I know that make six figures and more consistently. Is it easy ,NO it takes hard work and dedication but hardly Impossible.

I am in my ninth year of supporting myself solely from AP. The vast majority of my income has been from card counting, but have branched into a bit of other elementary stuff this year. (more on that in a minute) I have yet to have a hundred thousand year, although this is the third consecutive year I have hit the half way point at some point in the first 6 months and have finished upper five figures in the previous 3 years, so it is not out of the realm of possibility. My first few years I was playing low limit games to a small bankroll and wasn't even dreaming of 6 figures. I was happy to be able to pay the rent. Eventually my bankroll was able to grow and I relocated from east coast to Vegas. I now have the bankroll to safely play the stakes required to have a reasonable chance to hit that goal, BUT there are other issues that are likely to prevent me from doing so.

Sticking with card counting, as already mentioned, it's far from a 9-5er. You can't just sit at the table and play as much as you want. If you are playing a winning game, you won't last long. You must play short sessions and move around a lot. Play a hit and run style to achieve any sort of longevity. Sure there are casino's almost everywhere now, but there is no place like Vegas where you can play such a large rotation of stores without extensive travel, which increase expenses, which is why I relocated. With such a large rotation, you can play and move around and stay under the radar in vegas and make a decent living (although a decent living is subjective), IF you play at a mid level stakes. If you go above mid-level stakes to where your top bet is 4 figures, you are not going to stay off the radar and unfortunately, mid-level black top bet isn't going to get you to 6 figures except maybe some occasional above expectation year, so it's an either or situation. So from strictly card counting, I would say deteriorating games outweights increased number of games and making a six figure living is becoming less and less likely. 60-80 grand is much more doable on a regular basis for a solo player. This brings us to the team play concept which many card counters eventually move to. With team play, yes you can make larger amounts of money, but there is a small window of opportunity. Even traveling extensively, team play will not go undetected long and once you start to become know, with today's technology and outfits like OSN, your career is over.

Most card counters move on to other areas because of these limitations. Hole-carding both blackjack and other games seems to be big right now. Personally, I am not comfortable with hole-carding. I am not saying it is cheating, but I like to be able to beat a game playing it with the information I was intended to have, so I don't seek out HC situations, although occasionally they do 'fall' to me. Poker seems to be another avenue many card counters have drifted towards. I haven't. I am not all that comfortable with taking money directly from other players, many who obviously can't afford it.

Now back to branching out. This year I have expanded into some other elementary stuff like comp and bonus chasing and couponing. Not going to get too specific but the local's type casinos are very generous with mailers. If you play a minimum amount of machine play, the mailers will turn the play plus EV. Not the cash back or bonus points. Most offer squat, even on multiplier days. It's the mailers that are disproportionately advantageous, on a LIMITED amount of play. I also have recently just finished up playing over 600 low limit matchplay coupons at one property in a 10 week period. I check a number of sites to keep up to date on all the bonuses and promotions that various casinos are running and try to take advantage of as many as possible. There is 'hidden" value in this type of play that you might not initially realize. This year I have won an automobile and $1000 free play in drawings that I was in as a result of this machine play. Also, food comps are much stronger from machine play than table play. Eating out at least once, usually twice every day, this has monetary value that I don't even figure into my yearly earnings. Problem is this is all time consuming and has meant playing far less blackjack. So basically even this is a trade off, rather than adding to my blackjack play, but it may help my longevity some by diversifying.

So that's the scope from the card counting/blackjack angle. I am not a sportsbetter, nor familiar with dice control/craps techniques, so am not familiar with the opportunities there. I have been playing a carnival type game some this year at an advantage and have had pretty strong results, but even that game is more protected than you would have thought as I have been backed off 3 times in a short time of limited play. I guess my conclusion is that six figures yearly, while still possible, is much less likely and more difficult unless you have access to some sort of time travel. :)

Quote: Wizard

I was taught that the single-family home was one of the safest and best investments you could make. Not to mention the government subsidy on the interest. In my own experience, I could see my father bought the home I grew up in for 30K in 1970, and in 2009 it was worth about 800K. That is a grown rate of 8.8% per year, not to mention a place to live. In about 1977 he bought an ocean-front house in Washington State. I don't know what he paid for it, but do know he did quite well on that one too.

Same with my grandparents...bought a house in the late 60's brand new for $15k, the home is worth about $200k now. (was worth a little more, but real estate drop)
I think what it really was, is the economy in general...from the 60's until now, real estate was EXPANDING (as in physical land growth), however, NOW most land that is zoned for housing, IS covered in housing, so the value isn't as great...from my observation, older homes are mostly 1-story, whereas now, almost ALL are 2-story...
That's why I lease a condo...LOL

EDIT: On the subject of professional gambling...a GOOD play is like 4% advantage, and just do the math...if you run through $2M a year, that's only $80k profit...and for a $2M per-year handle, the bankroll would be ENORMOUS (unless you play like 40 hours a week, but even then it'd be a damn JOB...why not just GET a job?)

Quote: Wizard

That is pretty much the gist of it. I had about a 350K bankroll, which was enough to make 100K a year from. However, I blew it on Las Vegas real estate, thinking that we were at the bottom in the summer of 2009. Between that money gone, and further loss of value, I've lost half a million dollars in the last three years gambling on Vegas real estate. It would be easy to say that in retrospect, I should have stuck to cards and sports. Now I don't have the bankroll to make it worth my bother to play.

Don't mean to kick you while you are down, Wizard, but I am surprised you would do this simply based on the egg principals. (nest egg and eggs in one basket) I am sure this is easier to see, now on a monday morning. (monday morning QB) I have no doubt, you will be back in short order and hearing the details of this resurgence will be amazing.

Quote: Wizard

In about 1977 he bought an ocean-front house in Washington State. I don't know what he paid for it, but do know he did quite well on that one too.

You could always look up the sale price on Zillow or at the county recording office just for kicks.

Quote: Paigowdan

If you honestly think it is not difficult to make six figures as a gambler, you may be kidding yourself on this, just speaking plainly. It is either exceedingly difficult, or simply impossible. And I imagine that it is not an enjoyable job; it is work. After a while oneself perfers something more stable than the turn of the cards for financial security, except for the casino owner.

I mostly agree with this. It's not impossible, but it's very, very difficult to achieve for most people. Most APs are not making anywhere near six figures. The few who are have large bankrolls, a large professional network, a wide skill set, an uncommonly strong drive to beat games (often not just casino games), and the right combination of quick analytical skills and strong people skills. The latter quality is impossible to obtain for most—it's simply a natural ability. It's also probably the most important of the bunch, which limits the playing field considerably. Many people have one or two of these qualities, but few have all of them.

And yes, for many APs, it's not entirely enjoyable work (that's why they still call it "work!"). You're subjected to hours upon hours of sitting in smoky, loud environments, surrounded by absolute negativity covered in a glittery façade. You're treated like a criminal (sometimes literally) and looked down upon as the scum of society by people who are utterly shocked that you dare use your eyes, ears, and brain in the process of playing a casino game. You can't openly discuss what you do for a living with all of your friends and family. You have to travel a lot, and often to places that are not high up on most people's vacation lists. You work irregular hours, struggle to stay in shape as a result of sitting around all day, and often eat fast food quickly, between shifts.

It's a really tough way to make a little bit of money. I would not try and suggest the AP career path for anyone. For one, it would be irresponsible of me to do so, and it would also be unnecessary—the type of person who has what it takes to make serious money as an AP doesn't need convincing to choose that career path; it often chooses them, as clichéd as that sounds. Most APs that I know who play full-time didn't set out to do so, they simply realized that they were good at what they did and enjoyed their work. Often, they found that AP pays better than their original career plans. The high-level, full-time players that I know represent a very, very small portion of the AP community. Most of those do enjoy their work; it's a rare combination indeed.

I appreciate your candor Wizard, and am confident your BR will eventually grow to new heights.

Would the Sands allow you to run classes or seminars for a fee? With the proper marketing, I think you could do quite well "coaching" a few days or weekends each month.

yeah, the Sands wants to better educate the public so they can do better at casino gambling...
sounds like a plotline from "fantasy island"

Quote: Ayecarumba

I appreciate your candor Wizard, and am confident your BR will eventually grow to new heights.

Thanks.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Would the Sands allow you to run classes or seminars for a fee? With the proper marketing, I think you could do quite well "coaching" a few days or weekends each month.

I would not hold your breath waiting for that.

On the note of a professional gambler, how are people professional VP players. Even the best games pay slightly under 1% return and thats with everything being perfect. Even if you take advantage of some cash backs, how much could you receive to make this a six or close to six figure profession?

Quote: LonesomeGambler

surrounded by absolute negativity covered in a glittery façade.

What a perfect way to describe the casino environment.
There's always a feeling of desperation in the air, of
negative vibes. Its not a fun place if you're sober, its
a sad place. Like an old time traveling carnival, where
the animals are old and tired out, and the paint on
everything is faded. If you look at peoples faces while
they play, they're mostly grim or bored, seldom are they
happy. You see more smiles at a funeral than you see
in a casino.

Quote: EvenBob

What a perfect way to describe the casino environment.
There's always a feeling of desperation in the air, of
negative vibes. Its not a fun place if you're sober, its
a sad place. Like an old time traveling carnival, where
the animals are old and tired out, and the paint on
everything is faded. If you look at peoples faces while
they play, they're mostly grim or bored, seldom are they
happy. You see more smiles at a funeral than you see
in a casino.

But yet you have over 6000 posts in a forum dedicated to the topic.

Anyway, I was surprised to see the Wizard being so open and that earns even more respect. Congratulations on your new job. Everyone has to do what puts food on the table using their skills.

Quote: Paigowdan

Professional casino gambling, whether in dice setting, card-counting, whatever the AP, is next to impossible.

Dan is like the father of the proverbial 15 year
old daughter who has just started dating. He
constantly lectures her on how there are no
15 year old girls having sex. She doesn't tell
him she personally knows half a dozen who are,
she knows her dad has an agenda and she just
lets him ramble on.

Quote: EvenBob

What a perfect way to describe the casino environment.
There's always a feeling of desperation in the air, of
negative vibes. Its not a fun place if you're sober, its
a sad place. Like an old time traveling carnival, where
the animals are old and tired out, and the paint on
everything is faded. If you look at peoples faces while
they play, they're mostly grim or bored, seldom are they
happy. You see more smiles at a funeral than you see
in a casino.

You should work in marketing.

" Later it became Oil areas, then Grand Junction, Colorado as the shale oil speculation dried up, more and more real estate was vulnerable but all that came later."

this is the second bust for Grand Junction. The first was in 1980's. This last one still has a way to go. Even minimum wage jobs draw hundreds of applicants.

I was in Houston in the 1980's when the oil bubble burst. The joke back them was about a man who had a BS degree in Geology
being turned down for a job at McDonalds because the other applicants had a masters in Geology.

Had a friend who had been a restaurant manager and he could not even get a job as a bus boy in Houston. Minimum wage employers do not want high turnover and so hire those who will stay for years , if possible. And if you are illegal, when move to the front of the line !

Is it safe to assume that far more players are making 100K a year from Poker than all other AP playing combined? I understand that means there are many more players losing this and more each year at the Poker tables.

Quote: Wavy70

You should work in marketing.

Thats why casino ads on TV are entertaining.
They show people in an orgasmic state, winning
and winning. Just like real life.

Quote: Boz

Is it safe to assume that far more players are making 100K a year from Poker than all other AP playing combined? I understand that means there are many more players losing this and more each year at the Poker tables.

Probably by a factor greater than 10.

Quote: Boz

Is it safe to assume that far more players are making 100K a year from Poker than all other AP playing combined? I understand that means there are many more players losing this and more each year at the Poker tables.

There are no statistics on it, but I would roughly estimate that the ratio of American APs who are predominantly poker players is about 1 in 4.

Quote: Wizard

I had about a 350K bankroll, which was enough to make 100K a year from. However, I blew it on Las Vegas real estate,

So you were planning on the real estate going up
in value faster than the $100K a year you could
earn off the $350K? Then sell and make a big profit.
Is that right?

Quote: Pokeraddict

But yet you have over 6000 posts in a forum dedicated to the topic.

Anyway, I was surprised to see the Wizard being so open and that earns even more respect. Congratulations on your new job. Everyone has to do what puts food on the table using their skills.

Bob goes to different Casino than I do.

Quote: EvenBob

Dan is like the father of the proverbial 15 year
old daughter who has just started dating. He
constantly lectures her on how there are no
15 year old girls having sex. She doesn't tell
him she personally knows half a dozen who are,
she knows her dad has an agenda and she just
lets him ramble on.

Naah, I know these lil' young-ums are constantly chumming for da nasty.....

Quote: Wizard

There are no statistics on it, but I would roughly estimate that the ratio of American APs who are predominantly poker players is about 1 in 4.

We touched on this in the Shadow Casinos thread and noted the overwhelming number of gambling that is done in small bars, restaurants, etc. Don't forget the concept of a Busman's Holiday: alot of casino employees are on some friends list for Poker Night.

Poker rooms try to get a mix of games and a mix of attendees. Its clearly a hobby for some perpetual losers. There is even a poker term "Dead Man" meaning a guy whose wife lets him off the leash Thursday nights with a twenty dollar bankroll or something. So poker players and sports bettors are the unmeasured quantity.

Everything else in a casino seems measured. They are too smart not to know their players. The publicity shots all reflect dreams of youth, beauty and glamor. The actual people around a craps table can be losers and obnoxious drunks. Is there lurking amidst them a professional craps player? None has emerged in recorded history. Not one. And if you can't be a professional at 20x odds, then it can't ever be done.

I think there is simply a variable amount of money people are willing to devote to their addictions. Those blue haired ladies playing Bingo are actually in a positive one percent game many years plus they get the free food, free drinks and free ride back to the retirement home.

So: Poker players, sports bettors, bookies, and Bingo Ladies can be making a living at it. VP fanatics can do it profitably if they are retired and don't mind occasional saddle sores as they "earn" their 9.00 an hour.

Everyone else in the casino is negative expectation with just enough "lure" to keep them coming back for more.

Quote: Paigowdan

Naah, I know these lil' young-ums are constantly chumming for da nasty.....

But you are like that dad, Dan. You know damn well
there are lots of AP's making a living out there, and you
think by constantly denying it the fact will change.

Quote: kewlj

I am in my ninth year of supporting myself solely from AP. The vast majority of my income has been from card counting, but have branched into a bit of other elementary stuff this year. (more on that in a minute) I have yet to have a hundred thousand year, although this is the third consecutive year I have hit the half way point at some point in the first 6 months and have finished upper five figures in the previous 3 years, so it is not out of the realm of possibility. My first few years I was playing low limit games to a small bankroll and wasn't even dreaming of 6 figures. I was happy to be able to pay the rent. Eventually my bankroll was able to grow and I relocated from east coast to Vegas. I now have the bankroll to safely play the stakes required to have a reasonable chance to hit that goal

Terrific post. Thanks for this background info. Found it very enlightening.

Quote: FleaStiff

If I recall correctly someone on this board had a very impressive first year at Blackjack followed by a much more realistic second year, so I guess it varies. Much of the "edge" consists of comps such as drinks so how much of a self defeating edge is that? Even if the booze is high quality it still is booze night after night. Free room, free booze, free food ... fine and dandy, but a spouse prefers something more stable than the turn of the card.

Was the great first year followed by losing second year comment about me (or am I being egotistical?)