hhhccc
hhhccc
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May 4th, 2012 at 8:18:33 PM permalink
A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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May 6th, 2012 at 9:20:16 PM permalink
Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.


Not to speak for the wizard, but making six figures as an AP requires an enormous bankroll, even if you're very good at everything. Counting, sports handicapping, hole carding, poker; they all involve significant variance, regardless of your skill level. The Wiz said he lost most of his bankroll in the real estate crash, so that would be that. I'm not saying there weren't other factors involved, but I'd bet that is the main one.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
1BB
1BB
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May 7th, 2012 at 4:31:11 PM permalink
Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own? I thought it was not difficult to make six figures, especially for someone who can come up with all that you come up with! The rest of us don't have a chance.



The average high school student can learn to count cards well enough to win 6 figures a year with the proper bankroll. The casinos will not allow it.

Modern day surveillance is constantly improving while card counting remains fairly stagnant. That's why the best counters are branching out to other AP plays.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
hhhccc
hhhccc
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May 7th, 2012 at 8:03:42 PM permalink
not difficult for the best in the business - i.e. the Wizard. If he can't do it, not many can.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 7th, 2012 at 9:36:35 PM permalink
Quote: hhhccc

A real question, not fishing around: does this mean that you don't think you can make a decent income gambling on your own?



That is pretty much the gist of it. I had about a 350K bankroll, which was enough to make 100K a year from. However, I blew it on Las Vegas real estate, thinking that we were at the bottom in the summer of 2009. Between that money gone, and further loss of value, I've lost half a million dollars in the last three years gambling on Vegas real estate. It would be easy to say that in retrospect, I should have stuck to cards and sports. Now I don't have the bankroll to make it worth my bother to play.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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May 7th, 2012 at 10:02:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is pretty much the gist of it. I had about a 350K bankroll, which was enough to make 100K a year from. However, I blew it on Las Vegas real estate, thinking that we were at the bottom in the summer of 2009. Between that money gone, and further loss of value, I've lost half a million dollars in the last three years gambling on Vegas real estate. It would be easy to say that in retrospect, I should have stuck to cards and sports. Now I don't have the bankroll to make it worth my bother to play.



That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 7th, 2012 at 11:45:43 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.



it's the double-edged sword of the Leverage.

I again am amazed at how open the Wizard is willing to be on the personal stuff.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 8th, 2012 at 12:15:07 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.

Perhaps not, but please do not forget that fortunes were made and lost in Tulip Bulbs while all the while the salary of the most skilled craftsman in society, a cooper in the beer industry, remained relatively stagnant.

With casinos world wide being under attack by amalgams of Russian programmers and Asian gangs, it is perhaps a better use of skills to focus on casino cheats now than Las Vegas real estate ... or tulips!

There are those who fancy themselves Advantage Gamblers and perhaps they do indeed merit the title, but now the real Advantage Gamblers are well funded criminal groups with access to sophisticated programmers.

There is a time to be a Tulip Bulb Trader, a time to be a skilled wainwright in the cooperage industry ... and a time to be a statistical analyst in the Gambling Industry.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 8th, 2012 at 12:35:49 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

That is sad that buying houses should be the risky gamble. It's certainly not what we were taught as kids.



Just as an aside ... a matter of curiosity: what were you taught as a child about the value of real estate in general and single family homes in particular?

When I was young a popular best seller was a fanciful book by an adagio dancer making utterly false claims of easy stock market wealth through the use of stock charts and stop-loss orders. (He really made his money selling the book, but everyone was making money in the market at the time so that is what he wrote about). However, I was more interested in the lessons learned by an author who wrote about having made millions in his spare time in income property (rather than single family homes). He actually had done it and later wrote a sequel entitled how to make three million in your spare time.

I also was moved by Darrell Huff (author of How to Lie With Statistics) who showed that his having bought real estate and held onto it made him more money than trading California real estate as everyone else had been doing.

Then along came Banks, Non-Bank Banks and collateralized mortgage obligations and suddenly the only law of value was The Law of the Chinese Sardine Can and nothing, absolutely nothing, had any value except the value for which it could be sold.

So ... when you were twelve years old ... what were you learning about real estate valuation? Did you believe in "Work Hard and Save Your Money" or in the value of a Single Family Home?
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 8th, 2012 at 3:14:47 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Just as an aside ... a matter of curiosity: what were you taught as a child about the value of real estate in general and single family homes in particular?



I was taught that the single-family home was one of the safest and best investments you could make. Not to mention the government subsidy on the interest. In my own experience, I could see my father bought the home I grew up in for 30K in 1970, and in 2009 it was worth about 800K. That is a grown rate of 8.8% per year, not to mention a place to live. In about 1977 he bought an ocean-front house in Washington State. I don't know what he paid for it, but do know he did quite well on that one too.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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