Mdawg forum challenge
I’m willing to send wizard 2500 upfront upon agreement of the challenge. Now is the time to put up or shut up.
Wizard will receive 500 for his time
Mdawg will receive 2000 provided he allows wizard to watch his play for 1 session
This is described as
A private table (as mdawg always plays alone)
A marker of at least 8k is drawn
Minimum bet to be discussed prior to challenge.
Chip rack is counted prior to playing and upon leaving
The session is a least one shoe with at least 75 percent of hands being played .
The session results in a win.
A full session report can be posted my mdawg and verified by wizard .
As Michael buffer says.
Let’s get readddyyyyyyyyyyy to rumble.
Quote: ExpectedvalueWizard has agreed. So I will post this
I’m willing to send wizard 2500 upfront upon agreement of the challenge. Now is the time to put up or shut up.
Wizard will receive 500 for his time
Mdawg will receive 2000 provided he allows wizard to watch his play for 1 session
This is described as
A private table (as mdawg always plays alone)
A marker of at least 8k is drawn
Minimum bet to be discussed prior to challenge.
Chip rack is counted prior to playing and upon leaving
The session is a least one shoe with at least 75 percent of hands being played .
The session results in a win.
A full session report can be posted my mdawg and verified by wizard .
As Michael buffer says.
Let’s get readddyyyyyyyyyyy to rumble.
I’ll take that bet. Winning $2k just for ending up with a single + session? If MDawg doesn’t accept can I fill in for him?
Or to put it another way. Thanks a ****** bunch for creating another thread with which to engage his disciples.Quote: rainmanNice way to keep ole MDawg relevant.
What next. Personal invitations to his fan club and his anti-fan club.
Do you want to send your BTC to 3H9He1vZEYLH2ixrEZqk44dFvCvJNj6V5D ?
Not as escrow, but just for my benefit fund.
Quote: SOOPOOI’ll take that bet. Winning $2k just for ending up with a single + session? If MDawg doesn’t accept can I fill in for him?
I'm Mdawg!
Quote: SOOPOOI’ll take that bet. Winning $2k just for ending up with a single + session? If MDawg doesn’t accept can I fill in for him?
Hold on right there.
The protocol in a duel or challenge is for the participants to name their seconds.
I'm volunteering to fill in for MDawg, we should let him choose his second.
It's totally up to him, I won't even play my MD fan club Palladium card.
Quote: ExpectedvalueMinimum bet to be discussed prior to challenge.
The minimum bet needs to be established before the challenge is even considered,
there's no way anybody can accept the challenge without knowing the minimum bet.
How many hand's and a minimum bet. He should have to bet an average amount over a certain number of hand's in the range of what he has been suggesting he bets. Something that would earn him 1200 in comps.Quote: coachbellyThe minimum bet needs to be established before the challenge is even considered,
there's no way anybody can accept the challenge without knowing the minimum bet.
I highly doubt this is going to happen anyways
Why? What makes you the arbiter of the challenge. Who says he cant marty repeatedly with $25 min unit? He could then be confident of meeting the criteria.Quote: coachbellyThe minimum bet needs to be established before the challenge is even considered,
there's no way anybody can accept the challenge without knowing the minimum bet.
Meanwhile. send your BTC to 3H9He1vZEYLH2ixrEZqk44dFvCvJNj6V5D I'll see they are well looked after.... Not in escrow, of course.
Quote: OnceDearWhy? What makes you the arbiter of the challenge. Who says he cant marty repeatedly with $25 min unit? He could then be confident of meeting the criteria.
He doesn't need to marty to meet the current criteria.
But a minimum bet needs to be part of the criteria, and it's not.
Quote: AxelWolfI highly doubt this is going to happen anyways
Neither do I...I think Expectedvalue will withdraw the challenge.
How long did MDawg get suspended for doing that?
Quote: coachbellyHe doesn't need to marty to meet the current criteria.
So what?
Says who?Quote:But a minimum bet needs to be part of the criteria, and it's not.
Is it you that made the offer? Are you worried that ExpectedValue made a bad or risky or pointless offer?
meanwhile....
I'm not sure why a minimum bet is needed to be established? If someone is betting $100 one hand but on the next hand they bet 20k I would have to give them credit for an average bet. That proves to me they have the funds and stupidity of making large bets in to - EV games.Quote: coachbellyHe doesn't need to marty to meet the current criteria.
But a minimum bet needs to be part of the criteria, and it's not.
I do not like it if it gives MD a positive expectation. That openens up a situation where someone might be willing to loan him the money to bet.... thus proving nothing to me.Quote: OnceDearSo what?
Says who?
Is it you that made the offer? Are you worried that ExpectedValue made a bad or risky or pointless offer?
meanwhile....
Quote: OnceDearAre you worried that ExpectedValue made a bad or risky or pointless offer?
No I'm not worried, but yes the offer is pointless without a minimum bet.
That is to say, it's pointless to accept the challenge without knowing the minimum bet,
otherwise the participants may not be able to come to agreement on the minimum bet.
Quote: ExpectedvalueI will not withdraw the challenge.
His reports say that he his minimum bet has been the table minimum.
So what's the minimum bet for this challenge? Table minimum?
Explain why a minimum bet should matter to anyone? Makes no sense especially if you are trend betting or what ever you want to call it...Quote: coachbellyNo I'm not worried, but yes the offer is pointless without a minimum bet.
That is to say, it's pointless to accept the challenge without knowing the minimum bet,
otherwise the participants may not be able to come to agreement on the minimum bet.
If a guy wants to bet $5 until he sees a trend or whatever and then he makes huge bets why isn't that appropriate? Obviously, that's not good for the person making the offer as it can easily give someone an advantage.
Oh, it was never going to prove anything. A total freeroll, Thx EV.Quote: AxelWolfI do not like it if it gives MD a positive expectation. That openens up a situation where someone might be willing to loan him the money to bet.... thus proving nothing to me.Quote: OnceDearSo what?
Says who?
Is it you that made the offer? Are you worried that ExpectedValue made a bad or risky or pointless offer?
meanwhile....
Does anyone believe he will be up to a 96% discount?
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not sure why a minimum bet is needed to be established? If someone is betting $100 one hand but on the next hand they bet 20k I would have to give them credit for an average bet. That proves to me they have the funds and stupidity of making large bets in to - EV games.
The challenge calls for a positive result after at least 75% of a shoe played,
not to prove anything to you about available funds or large -EV bets.
If the participants don't agree on a minimum bet beforehand,
that the minimum will be discussed after the challenge is accepted,
then they may not be able to agree on the minimum bet after the fact.
I guess then that the min bet default would be the table minimum.
If you want to advocate for that, then go right ahead and present your argument in favor.
It won't cost me or you a bean. Wizard and MDawg get a freeroll and maybe one will buy me a beer one day and ExpectedValue will get the satisfaction that he purchased. I rest my case.Quote: coachbelly
If you want to advocate for that, then go right ahead and present your argument in favor.
Quote: darkozHasn't MDawg demanded $50,000 in order for someone to observe his play pastwise?
Does anyone believe he will be up to a 96% discount?
Yes I believe that he will if offered a $2K bonus for a positive result after 57 hands.
I suspect that this is a +EV play, of the magnitude of the recent VP play the Wizard wrote about.
Seems to me, Expectedvalue, made an honest attempt at a fair proposal and the usual suspects are trying to sabotage it with their usual games.
The proposal is meant to show that the person in question plays the stakes he claims...nothing more, as many on this forum don't even believe that.
Whether or not the session observed is a winning or losing session is irrelevant as far as proving or disproving any long term results, although it would be pretty hard to explain if this was the session that broke the 'streak'.
And the proposal is flawed in that it wouldn't achieve that. But Hey Ho. Not my money.... YetQuote: kewljThe proposal is meant to show that the person in question plays the stakes he claims...nothing more, as many on this forum don't even believe that.
Quote: OnceDearIt won't cost me or you a bean. Wizard and MDawg get a freeroll and maybe one will buy me a beer one day and ExpectedValue will get the satisfaction that he purchased. I rest my case.
You've made a compelling argument.
Quote: kewljOh good, a new thread that I am eligible to participate in. :)
Seems to me, Expectedvalue, made an honest attempt at a fair proposal and the usual suspects are trying to sabotage it with their usual games.
The proposal is meant to show that the person in question plays the stakes he claims...nothing more, as many on this forum don't even believe that.
Whether or not the session observed is a winning or losing session is irrelevant as far as proving or disproving any long term results, although it would be pretty hard to explain if this was the session that broke the 'streak'.
This post is on point
Quote: OnceDearAnd the proposal is flawed in that it wouldn't achieve that. But Hey Ho. Not my money.... Yet
That's correct, the current proposal has terms.
MDawg needs to draw a $8K marker,
play and be ahead after at least 57 hands...that's it.
The terms can't change now to reflect what the proposal meant to show.
That would mean withdrawing the current challenge,
and proposing another challenge.
Which, of course, ExpectedValue is free to do.
Quote: kewljExpectedvalue, made an honest attempt at a fair proposal
and the usual suspects are trying to sabotage it with their usual games.
Woah...nobody is arguing against it or trying to sabotage it.
On the contrary, the proposal has other takers,
nobody wants this opportunity to go away.
The proposal requires an $8K minimum starting bankroll,
no maximum bankroll.
There is no minimum or maximum bet required,
other than the table minimum and maximum.
The player must play at least 57 hands of baccarat,
and finish ahead after his play.
The player shall receive a $2K bonus
should he finish ahead after his play.
This must be a significant +EV opportunity for the player.
Any math guys want to take a look at this play?
Expectedvalue is putting HIS money up in a proposal to Wizard and the other party. Wizard has accepted. Why is coach belly negotiating or trying to set terms?
Quote: coachbellyYes I believe that he will if offered a $2K bonus for a positive result after 57 hands.
I suspect that this is a +EV play, of the magnitude of the recent VP play the Wizard wrote about.
This is far from a +EV situation IMHO.
If MDawg is bullshitola then he will be exposed unless dumb luck works his way as he has to be ahead at the end 57 hands.
If he is lucky most people including myself will point out he was just dumb lucky and as oncedear points out it just proves that that single time he gambled for high stakes. Not necessarily every trip like he claims.
Finally if MDawg has actually perfected a means of beating Baccarat (regardless of anyone opinions on it) then he is exposing a very valuable method for a measly $2000.
I just don't see how the outcome in any way will leave MDawg happy or at a +EV
The 57 hands criteria is sadly NOT in the original offer that Wizard and apparently MDawg have accepted.Quote: darkozThis is far from a +EV situation IMHO.
If MDawg is bullshitola then he will be exposed unless dumb luck works his way as he has to be ahead at the end 57 hands.
If he is lucky most people including myself will point out he was just dumb lucky and as oncedear points out it just proves that that single time he gambled for high stakes. Not necessarily every trip like he claims.
Finally if MDawg has actually perfected a means of beating Baccarat (regardless of anyone opinions on it) then he is exposing a very valuable method for a measly $2000.
I just don't see how the outcome in any way will leave MDawg happy or at a +EV
I fear EV might have made a small error in his offer, over on that other thread.
But, I'm sure they can work it out.
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/3H9He1vZEYLH2ixrEZqk44dFvCvJNj6V5D
Quote: ExpectedvaluePlease do not chance my words coach belly. I said at a minimum that we agree on.
What if you can't agree on a minimum?
Why not avoid or eliminate that possibility and
propose a minimum bet so the guy can fully evaluate the challenge?
As it stands now, you posted different conditions on another thread,
and that's the only challenge he's aware of.
He has you blocked, he hasn't seen this thread,
or what you proposed here.
The Wizard hasn't replied here either,
but both he and MDawg accepted the conditions
which you proposed on the Adventures thread.
So it looks like you are EXPECTED to either follow through
with whatever the Wizard agreed to, or withdraw.
Quote: darkozI just don't see how the outcome in any way will leave MDawg happy or at a +EV
He can just flat-bet banker for the table min X
and have a decent chance of being ahead Y after 57 hands.
If you add the bonus, then he'd win Y + $2000 if ahead Y after 57 hands.
Isn't that similar to playing a machine progressive?
Oh, I also forgot, if I was just a teeny bit lucky, and won 27, lost 24, and tied 5, I wouldn't need to do ANYTHING to win the extra $2k.
I'm not great at the exact math, but I'd submit that the average expected value to me for this 'challenge' would be around $1850 - $1950.
As I've said about all challenges involving MDawg..... IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN!
Quote: SOOPOOIT AINT GONNA HAPPEN!
So a guy shows up at a 'runners forum' (I assume there is such a thing) claiming he can run a 3 minute mile. After a lot of pushback from the membership he offers to meet with the runners forum owner and show him statements from people who have seen him run the 3 minute mile. Wouldn't the big question be: why will he not just run the 3 minute mile in the presence of the Runner forum owner?
Quote: OnceDearThe 57 hands criteria is sadly NOT in the original offer that Wizard and apparently MDawg have accepted.
I fear EV might have made a small error in his offer, over on that other thread.
But, I'm sure they can work it out.
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/3H9He1vZEYLH2ixrEZqk44dFvCvJNj6V5D
Doesn't MDawg claim a hit and run where he leaves if up?
What is to stop MDawg from doing one single banker wager for $1000, win, say, he won, he is leaving as per usual and please hand me $2000?
Quote: SOOPOOAs I've said about all challenges involving MDawg
..... IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN!
Thank you for your explanation.
The good news for Expectedvalue is that the challenge
you explained above hasn't been accepted.
The bad news is that the Wizard and MDawg already accepted
a challenge that's much worse for Expectedvalue.
I also don't believe the challenge will happen,
Expectedvalue will withdraw.
Quote: darkozDoesn't MDawg claim a hit and run where he leaves if up?
What is to stop MDawg from doing one single banker wager for $1000, win, say, he won, he is leaving as per usual and please hand me $2000?
Ask Expectedvalue, he made the terms.
Quote: coachbellyThank you for your explanation.
The good news for Expectedvalue is that the challenge
you explained above hasn't been accepted.
The bad news is that the Wizard and MDawg already accepted
a challenge that's much worse for Expectedvalue.
I also don't believe the challenge will happen,
Expectedvalue will withdraw.
The terms of the challenge are now in question due to Expected Value adding terms.
I actually don't disagree with Expected Value adding those terms since as you pointed out the terms agreed upon by Wizard and MDawg put EV at a disadvantage.
It's pretty clear once two parties can't agree on terms the challenge isn't happening.
Coach and I agree on something for a change
Nothing.Quote: darkozDoesn't MDawg claim a hit and run where he leaves if up?
What is to stop MDawg from doing one single banker wager for $1000, win, say, he won, he is leaving as per usual and please hand me $2000?
Indeed he could marty from min bet, as far as I can see and quit when 1 unit ahead
But we have ambiguity in the two versions of the offer and ambiguity within at least one of the offers.
Quote: darkozThe terms of the challenge are now in question due to Expected Value adding terms.
Who is questioning the terms?
Both parties and the Wizard agreed to the terms,
and then they were changed by one of the parties.
There's no question about that.
and watching you fellas fall for this makes me feel good about
myself. :)
Quote: OnceDearNothing.
Indeed he could marty from min bet, as far as I can see and quit when 1 unit ahead
But we have ambiguity in the two versions of the offer and ambiguity within at least one of the offers.
Yes, but that is part of the whole thing about Wizard witnessing play. While it would be within the challenge rules, Wizard would immediately recognize that and report on it. And the report should include that is not a winning strategy. Because that is really what everyone is looking to solve.
Quote: darkozCoach and I agree on something for a change
Congratulations...you are wising up.
Quote: coachbellyWho is questioning the terms?
Both parties and the Wizard agreed to the terms,
and then they were changed by one of the parties.
There's no question about that.
Three contradictions in one post with just three sentences might be a record
Quote: ExpectedvalueWizard has agreed. So I will post this
I’m willing to send wizard 2500 upfront upon agreement of the challenge. Now is the time to put up or shut up.
Wizard will receive 500 for his time
Mdawg will receive 2000 provided he allows wizard to watch his play for 1 session
This is described as
A private table (as mdawg always plays alone)
A marker of at least 8k is drawn
Minimum bet to be discussed prior to challenge.
Chip rack is counted prior to playing and upon leaving
The session is a least one shoe with at least 75 percent of hands being played .
The session results in a win.
A full session report can be posted my mdawg and verified by wizard .
As Michael buffer says.
Let’s get readddyyyyyyyyyyy to rumble.
Haven’t changed rules. It’ says 75 percent of hands for one shoe . How is any of this ambiguous?
